*HBD PICKS* BGboothA's Road to Kentucky

[balls2wall]

Oh cmon, f'ing dq on first beulah race??? Would've had the trifecta.

What happened? I thought I hit the pick 4, but I didn't see my $$ jump so I looked to see the 4 won the first race.

I remember the 6 jumped out and dominated the whole race. I switched to watching parx after he crossed the finish in the first race

It had to be something coming out of the gate or early on

To add insult to injury, I bought a little insurance by keying the 2 in an exacta for race 4.


grrrr

[grim259]

What happened? I thought I hit the pick 4, but I didn't see my $$ jump so I looked to see the 4 won the first race.

I remember the 6 jumped out and dominated the whole race. I switched to watching parx after he crossed the finish in the first race

It had to be something coming out of the gate or early on

To add insult to injury, I bought a little insurance by keying the 2 in an exacta for race 4.


grrrr

DQ for moving over and making the horse behind bump into someone.

[BGboothA]

Looking at for example today's beulah race 2, how would you set up your exacta for that with 5-8/3-1 as the listed rankings?

Sorry for the delay getting back to you. This is the hard part. Setting up the bets is the hardest thing to do and to get right. There isn't a right way to do it. If we are looking at Race 3 (I am assuming thats what you meant) at Beulah yesterday. Our sheets had 5-8/3-1. However, with the scratch of SENOR DOMINGUEZ the #1, the race would no longer have qualified as an Exacta Experiment. But lets say it did.

This one is pretty straight forward, I would have played the 5,8/3,4,5,8. Note that I would have lost as well.

[grim259]

Thats some helpful info! I hit one exacta for 55. But lost most of it on other exactas haha. I guess ill keep at it and increase my bankroll to allow for minor losses.

[BGboothA]

Thats some helpful info! I hit one exacta for 55. But lost most of it on other exactas haha. I guess ill keep at it and increase my bankroll to allow for minor losses.

Just remember. It's a grind!

[daoilman]

I just finished watching the video manuals at your homepage, very interesting material.

[DDT]

I hadn't seen the videos, thanks for the heads up

[BGboothA]

Let me know what you guys thought of the videos....BE HONEST. It was my first attempt at such a thing, so I am curious if it was helpful.

[DDT]

Let me know what you guys thought of the videos....BE HONEST. It was my first attempt at such a thing, so I am curious if it was helpful.

I thought they were very helpful. I really like the new additions (false fav, exacta exp) to the sheets.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Wednesday 02/27/2013



We ran 5 tracks for Wednesday

[daoilman]

Let me know what you guys thought of the videos....BE HONEST. It was my first attempt at such a thing, so I am curious if it was helpful.

Very well presented and very well thought out. The emphasis on making plays only when getting value is a repetitive theme with all good players and as you pointed out it is necessary with your concepts to do the same, demanding good odds is the edge, from there the percentages will take care of themselves.

[BGboothA]

Very well presented and very well thought out. The emphasis on making plays only when getting value is a repetitive theme with all good players and as you pointed out it is necessary with your concepts to do the same, demanding good odds is the edge, from there the percentages will take care of themselves.

Exactly, what most people don't realize or don't admit, the best bet to make on MOST races is no bet at all. I probably play 10-20% of the races I cap. (intersting statistic actually, I wonder what it actually is)

[mrginandtonic]

Exactly, what most people don't realize or don't admit, the best bet to make on MOST races is no bet at all. I probably play 10-20% of the races I cap. (intersting statistic actually, I wonder what it actually is)

Just curious, do you usually play the races where you posted 100% confidence more? Or should I say how do you your cherries? Thanks in advance.

[BGboothA]

Just curious, do you usually play the races where you posted 100% confidence more? Or should I say how do you your cherries? Thanks in advance.

The confidence rating is something that I first thought I would use more, but it is proving to be less than important in on a large scale. The confidence rating looks at how much history we have on the horses in the race. We need 5 quality races in order to create a solid race profile for each horse. The confidence rating is simply a grade on the amount of quality races we have in the race. And a combination of how many of the horses last 5 races were deemed quality starts.

How do I do my cherries?

My focus is on value. I know using my data history, the odds of each one of our picks winning the race. I know that a top tier horse at santa Anita on dirt in a sprint wins at a 40% clip. I look for value, if I can get a top tier horse with these standards at 3-1 or better I will make a bet.

It is all about finding value around post time. There are times where there is value at 6-5, there are time when there isn't value at 20-1. But its ALL about finding value.

If you look at my angles, ONLYE, FALSEFAV, TRAINERJOCK, and EXACTAEXP are all focused on finding value and exploiting that value.

[grim259]

Any strong picks you see today (depending on odds at race time)?

[BGboothA]

Any strong picks you see today (depending on odds at race time)?

I am down in a conference in Portland, OR all week. I doubt I will get to play much at all. I amy put some conditional bets in for tomorrow if I have time. Depends on what time I will get back to the hotel room tonight.

[grim259]

I am down in a conference in Portland, OR all week. I doubt I will get to play much at all. I amy put some conditional bets in for tomorrow if I have time. Depends on what time I will get back to the hotel room tonight.

That's my home town. Enjoy it. Down at UO currently, but Portland is always nice.

[BGboothA]

Right on, I have been down to Vancouver a bunch but never really did much in Portland. I am here all week. Got any food or fun recomendations. We are going to the "Kennedy School" tonight for dinner and some beverages.

[grim259]

Voodoo donuts downtown. Along with portland city grill if you're into spendy food. Check out the rose garden and zoo, you can ride the max light rail straight to the zoo, just got new baby otters and elephants.

If you go for the donuts, expect a small wait but not bad. If you go in the middle of the night great prices on a big box. The place has been on tv countless times.

Additionally you could check out the blazers tonight, cheap seats always available.

[BGboothA]

Voodoo donuts downtown. Along with portland city grill if you're into spendy food. Check out the rose garden and zoo, you can ride the max light rail straight to the zoo, just got new baby otters and elephants.

If you go for the donuts, expect a small wait but not bad. If you go in the middle of the night great prices on a big box. The place has been on tv countless times.

Additionally you could check out the blazers tonight, cheap seats always available.

4We talked about going to the Blazers tonight, but I hate the NBA. They stole my Sonics still not over it. And yeah we actually went to Voodoo today as well. Had me a bacon maple bar it was awesome.

Not sure if I have time on the zoo....but may run back by Voodoo on the way home and grab some for my family.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Thursday 02/28/2013



We ran 9 tracks for Thursday

[daoilman]

Here are the files for Thursday 02/28/2013



We ran 9 tracks for Thursday

Thanks for posting those, and a by the way, check out the 238$ exacta in the last race a Delta Wednesday night, your sheet pick it straight as the first and second choices, if a person were following along looking for value it was a prime opportunity.

[BGboothA]

Thanks for posting those, and a by the way, check out the 238$ exacta in the last race a Delta Wednesday night, your sheet pick it straight as the first and second choices, if a person were following along looking for value it was a prime opportunity.

I saw that last night. I hope someone hit it as I didn't play it .... Lol

[daoilman]

Was looking over today's action, it appears that there might be a few good spots to work the "EX EXP" angle, namely:

Fairgrounds 3, 6, 8

Oaklawn 7

Santa Anita 6

I will have to watch each leading up to post, but if the odds are there it might be a chance at another big exacta.

[thes0vereign]

HBD had a nice 13-1 Only E winner last night. It was the top rated horse, opened at 12-1 and odds didn't spike, plus no cuts in the field.

Racing ticket #133127 Feb-27 TAM R8 2.00 SBR WPS 7

6.00 / 0.00

41.40

I'm trying to cut back my number of plays per day in an attempt to play smarter and find more value, so I will be around on and off today. BOL to all.

[balls2wall]

Here are the files for Thursday 02/28/2013


We ran 9 tracks for Thursday

thanks as always

[DDT]

Rough Day on Thursday....let's hope for a better Friday!

[BGboothA]

Rough Day on Thursday....let's hope for a better Friday!

Ahh man, I didn't get a chance to look at results today. Been out of town all week. Well here's hoping for a better day. Can't wait to get back and play some horses on Saturday.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Friday 03/01/2013


We ran 10 Tracks for Friday, including the return of Mountaineer, one of our best tracks from last year.

[BGboothA]

Welcome Home!

Come home from conference, figure I would play the late races at Mountaineer and Charlestown. First bet back....

Mountaineer R7 (exacta Exp) BOOM! $2 Exacta paid $86.80 on an $18 bet

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Saturday 03/02/2013



We ran 10 Tracks for Saturday.

Some Big races this weekend.

HBD Gotham Stakes =
#8 VYJACK
#4 ORE PASS
#3 ESCAPEFROMREALITY
#12 OVERANALYZE

Santa Anita Handicap =
#1 RON THE GREEK
#9 GAME ON DUDE
#10 GUILT TRIP
#5 CLUBHOUSE RIDE

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Sunday 03/03/2013



We ran 10 Tracks for Sunday.

Had a nice Saturday, would have been better if I didn't take a tough loss on the last race of a derby wars head to head matchup but a good day betting at least. We hit a nice exacta in the Santa Anita Handicap. So can't complain. Here is to a good sunday.

Good luck all.

[BGboothA]

Alright just got back from buying a new car...lets see if we can win a couple of car payments for it!

[BGboothA]

Tam r10

wps #5 4/12/24

[BGboothA]

Hou r8
$10 win #3 roy lake