*HBD PICKS* BGboothA's Road to Kentucky

[dramold]

Links are not working and will you have Sam Houston for today?
Thanks!
Dave

[BGboothA]

yes they are up now...

and yes, Sam Houston is up...but there is no race 1

[harthebar]

Link Not Working - Removed-)

[BGboothA]

Thanks Hart,

I didnt run HOU #1 because it was Arabians the PP don't calculate right in our system, so we get an error code meaning I couldn't print an HBD report.

[daoilman]

I'm gonna sign up for your newsletter today, interesting material, I like this kind of stuff.

Oh yeah, good luck today.

[harthebar]

whaqt is the newsletter ...im trying to catch up ..........

I'm gonna sign up for your newsletter today, interesting material, I like this kind of stuff.

Oh yeah, good luck today.

[BGboothA]

Newsletter goes out once a week and really just focuses on how we did this past weekend. We run our sheets every Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Newsletters go out on Wednesday after we have had a chance to consolidate all of our results from the previous weekend.

So far in 2013 we have shown great success, although yesterday was a down day. SO far today is looking up.

[BGboothA]

***Sam Houston Sheets are incorrect***

The picks on the top of the sheet are correct, but they are not sorting in the right order. Looks like when I ran them manually I made a mistake.

Just a heads up for anyone playing HOU using our sheets today. Those darn Arabians throw everything off.

Again, all the info and numbers are accurate, its the sorting on the sheet that isn't in the right order.

[harthebar]

what should i send you to get news letter ...my e mail address

Newsletter goes out once a week and really just focuses on how we did this past weekend. We run our sheets every Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Newsletters go out on Wednesday after we have had a chance to consolidate all of our results from the previous weekend.

So far in 2013 we have shown great success, although yesterday was a down day. SO far today is looking up.

[BGboothA]

All the info is on the site. Just fill in your info there.

[BGboothA]

Man looking back, we had a much better day today than yesterday, we may have still pulled off a positive weekend. Will compile results all tomorrow. But today was a good day!

[daoilman]

I have a couple of questions that weren't covered in the user guide, but I will contact you with those through your site.

[BGboothA]

I have a couple of questions that weren't covered in the user guide, but I will contact you with those through your site.

The guide needs to be updated to reflect the changes that we have made in the last couple of months. I am working on a few more youtube videos as well to help understand some things.

Feel free to ask on here as well. Others may have the same questions too.

[daoilman]

What is meant by "FALSE FAVORITE" and "EXACTA EXP"?

Are there other things you post in that area, and if so, what are their full definitions?

[BGboothA]

What is meant by "FALSE FAVORITE" and "EXACTA EXP"?

Are there other things you post in that area, and if so, what are their full definitions?

Alright, those are things we have literally added in the last two weeks, the site and the videos don't reflect them yet. We need to update those.

There are 4 key angles that will pop up on the top of our sheets as it stands right now.

Exacta Exp= This is a key angle that we have been playing with success in 2013. Basically this says there is a likely chance that our top four horses include a decent paying exacta. The criteria meet the 10 rules for exacta exp and we are hitting just about 50% of these races with an exacta.

False Fav = The ML favorite is rated below average on our charts. This can sometimes be used to point out potential value in the place and show pools, along with value in other places. We are currently tracking this to see the rate at which these "False Favs" finish out of the money. We should have these numbers later in the week.

Only E = This indicates that there is only 1 "E" style horse in the race and that horse rates high on our system. This should produce an easy pace shape for the E horse in our top 4. We have had some success at betting this E horse to win and limited success betting WPS. Again more numbers on this will be available later this week.

Trn/Jck = Indicates there is a horse in the race with a top rated Trainer / Jockey combination. One of my partners really likes this angle. I have not seen his numbers nor am I currently tracking them, but he is. This is a request from him. Honestly, I am not sure how the angle does and I do not currently use it any more than I previously did.

Feel free to ask any clarifying questions. It helps me produce content for our FAQ section and think things through on here. Plus i just like talking about this stuff...

[BGboothA]

Some more data is now available on our new 'pop ups'.

We ran the data on the 394 races from this weekend and last weekend. And have some results. Mind you on a very small example.


False Favorite
44% of the time our indicated False ML Favorite finished OUT of the money.
83% of the time our indicated False ML Favorite did NOT win the race.
17% of the time our indicated False ML Favorite still won the race.

Only E
38% of the time our Only E horse wins the race.
63% of the time our Only E horse finished in the money.
38% of the time our Only E horse finished OUT of the money.

Trainer / Jock
28% of the time our Trainer / Jock qualified horse wins the race.
67% of the time our Trainer / Jock qualified horse finished in the money.
33% of the time our Trainer / Jock qualified horse finished OUT of the money.

*I have NOT had any time to analyze any of this.
*We are talking about just under 400 races...that means nothing especially when the majority of these races didn't qualify for these things.

But transparency is what we are about so here the numbers are.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Sunday 02/01/2013


Also, I just finished some videos explaining the buttons on the top of the pages that are up a few posts. I will post those tonight or tomorrow.

[trytrytry]

so for example AQ race 8 you have a false favorite tag..what horse exactly are you marking the false Favorite? the #2?? is that how you read this thing?

[BGboothA]

so for example AQ race 8 you have a false favorite tag..what horse exactly are you marking the false Favorite? the #2?? is that how you read this thing?

The "False Favorite" tag simply means the ML favorite is vulnerable. For AQU 8 the #7 is a 2-1 ML favorite and we have ranked 2nd to last. Our numbers indicate that the 7 is a False Favorite.

We just finished this video today talking about False Favorite...

[daoilman]

Granted, the sample is very small, but if the results continue without significant variance there are some very telling trends.

Only E
38% of the time our Only E horse wins the race.
63% of the time our Only E horse finished in the money.
38% of the time our Only E horse finished OUT of the money.

I'm thinking that given the correct rules for play that this category can really be tweaked for value. By "rules for play" and "tweaked" I mean things like trainers winning average, not wagering on low percentage trainers, even if they are the only speed in the race, or, perhaps limiting plays to only horses that raced last out X number of days ago, and so fourth...

Also a thank you for your providing this information.

[BGboothA]

Yes. We are crunching the numbers a little deeper and setting it up to track closer in the coming weeks.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Saturday 02/02/2013

Three big Derby Preps tomorrow at AQU, SA and TB....good luck boys.

[daoilman]

WOW! So far today your numbers are smoking hot, box the top four in exactas and collect the cash.

Looking good, thanks for the info.

We stay up till the end of the day and I'm buying the beers.

[BGboothA]

Today has been freaking amazing so far!!!

[BGboothA]

Alright here are the other videos that cover the 'buttons' we are now featuring on the top of our pick sheets.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Sunday 02/03/2013


Finished an amazing day today, here are the files for tomorrow.

[thes0vereign]

Ticket #: 1914582

RAC

Racing ticket #130150 Feb-03 AQU R8 1.00 SBR EXX 2,3,4,8

12.00 / 0.00

182.50

WIN

02/03/2013 02:51:36 PM

[BGboothA]

Nice Hit!!!

I just hit a nice $222 exacta at Tampa too

[thes0vereign]

Nice Hit!!!

I just hit a nice $222 exacta at Tampa too

I saw that. Didn't see it until just before the start, but you're on fire lately man! Keep up the great work!

[BGboothA]

Yup, its been hitting well this weekend. Can't complain

[BGboothA]

Special Wednesday Edition of Gulfstream Park for MrGinandTonic


*The date is wrong on the sheets, the sheets will say 02/07 because it is autoformated to produce tomorrows date when I run the data (since I always run them the night before).

These sheets are for Wednesday the 6th

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks so much for posting it. Really appreciate it and GL to ya.

[mrginandtonic]

BG, just want to thank you for running the card today. Really appreciated. Thanks again.

[BGboothA]

No problem. We are going to take another run at tomorrows card. So I will run the cards for tomorrow when I get home.

[BGboothA]

Alright well change of plans for tomorrow, I am going to be home and playing some horses, so we ran 7 tracks for tomorrow including: