Early plays:
Bruins -135
Bruins -1.5 (+220)
Bruins -135
Bruins -1.5 (+220)
-
Comment -
Midday plays:
EDM/MIN u5 (EV) 2 units
NY RANGERS +130
NY RANGERS +1½ (-240)
Blackhawks -135Comment -
Rest of plays:
Penguins -230
Sabres -140
Sabres -1½+210
Panthers -140
Panthers -1½+210
Will tally everything up later. GO HAWKS!!!!!Comment -
Today went 4-7-0, -4.85 units
Overall: 73-61-5, +3.65 unitsComment -
Early plays:
Devils -165
Devils -1½ (+185)
NYI/NJ u5 (+115)Comment -
Late Plays:
PIT/MON u5 (+120)
Panthers +115
Panthers +1½ (-260)
VAN/SJ u5½ (-110)Comment -
Today's action went an abysmal 1-5-1, -6.25 units
Overall: 74-66-6, -2.60 units
When betting favorites and +1.5 lines, days like these will happen....we move forward!
Comment -
CAR/OTT u5½-110Comment -
STL/CBJ u5½ (-130) 2 units
ST. LOUIS -135
MINNESOTA -140
CGY/MIN u5 (+105) 2 unitsComment -
Last play:
TOR/ANA u5½ (+110)Comment -
Today went 2-4-0, -2.5 units
Overall: 76-70-6, -5.10 units
Crappy couple of days, so I'm tweaking my model a bit...should be an interesting couple of days here..I think I'm on to something.Comment -
Placed 3rd in LT's capping contest....that feels great! Got on a really hot run one of the beginning days by hitting almost all + pucklines....was up 40ish units in one day.
However, I'm not playing in one this week and I'll be focusing on capping. I know these are early but I believe there is good value here, so here are my plays for tomorrow, Nov. 28th:
Stars +120
Sharks -105Comment -
Yesterday's action went 1-1, +0.15 units (kind of amazed the Sharks got shutout, actually)
Overall: 77-71-6, -4.95 units
Will have plays within a few hours.
Comment -
Nov. 29th:
Panthers -115
Predators +110
I've been checking out some other avenues and I feel like I have come up with some interesting ideas. From this point on, I'll be using the same model, but it has been tweaked a bit for better results.
to everyone on their plays today!
Comment -
Today's action went 1-1, +0.00 units
Overall: 78-72-6, -4.95 units
Will have my plays for tomorrow in a few minutes...Comment -
Nov. 30th plays:
Canadiens -110
Wild +110Comment -
I actually have an early play for tomorrow, Dec. 1st:
Penguins -110
I feel like this is mainly a momentum play as the Caps are just in a hole right now.Comment -
Wednesday's Results: 1-1-0, +0.00 units (deja vu, no?)
Overall: 79-73-6, -4.95 units
Hope everyone had a great day today, on to tomorrow.
FWIW, my model has kicked into "full" gear. December and January and February are historically fantastic months for my model, and March and April, though less so, are very profitable. My short-term goal is to be up 20 units by the end of January, and my long-term goal is to be up 50 units for the season.
I believe both of these are achievable, even WITHOUT line shopping. I said earlier in this thread that I would only be posting lines form Bookmaker unless explicitly stated otherwise. This is partly an exercise to see how my model performs under the "harshest" lines, and partly to show exactly how much value one passes up be not line shopping. If you have access to Pinny, MB, or 5 Dimes reduced juice, please take advantage wholeheartedly!
Comment -
Thanks for the plays mebaran.Comment -
I was thinking since FL just flew from east to west coast might look at taking the Kings tonight. Expecting the Panthers to come out sloppy and flat
I feel that any team playing to road games especially the time differences between the two can cause a draw back on the team and may end up going the wrong way.
Best of luck to you Mebaran will post again tmrwComment -
You're welcome, sir. Please drop in and contribute and information or questions, etc. that you have along the season. The more the merrier.
This is a great point. I'm not exactly sure how to account for this statistically (or if it even warrants quantitative analysis), but my model DOES adjust for back-to-back games, and 3 games in 4 nights stretches.
I do think the NHL does a fairly decent job of scheduling games. In this case, they played Carolina (East Coast) on Tuesday, and travel to LA to play tonight. What helps is the fact that this is a late game (10:30Eastern), so they get an extra few hours thanks to the NHL schedulers. Also, FL is 8-5 playing away games this year...and scoring more goals when they play there.
Will look into travel distances with a little more gusto at some point in the off season, but my guess would be that:
1) It doesn't affect good teams as much as bad teams (teams w. deeper benches, etc.)
2) The effect is compounded as the season progresses (after 60 games played, traveling might be of larger impact)
Question for anyone that may know: Do teams differ in their travelling protocol? Do some teams fly out as soon as possible after a game, and others recuperate before traveling? Would be interested to see if every team adopts the same strategy or they're all different. If I were a coach, I'd want my team to get a workout in after the game and get some quality rest in before hopping on an airplane, so I would tend to lean towards leaving as late as possible while still giving my team time to adjust for time differences/weather, what have you. In all honesty though, these guys are professional athletes that are USED to this sort of thing, so again, my guess would be that it doesn't affect teams that are healthy.
Good topic Nick, you got my head spinning now...
Comment -
Today's record was, yet again, 1-1-0, +0.00 units......at least I'm racking up the frequent player points, right?
Overall: 80-74-6, -4.95 units
Just so everyone knows, it looks like there are no plays for tomorrow. Enjoy the day off.Comment -
Plays for tomorrow, Dec. 3rd:
Flyers +115
Sabres +120
Let's get some units for once...Comment -
Dec. 3rd's Results: 2-0, +2.35 units
Overall: 82-70-6, -2.60 unitsComment -
Plays for Today:
Wild +100 (placed this last night, you can get this for a better price, but line movement suggests this is the incorrect side)Comment -
quote=mebaran;12630111]Dec. 3rd's Results: 2-0, +2.35 units
Overall: 82-70-6, -2.60 units[/quote]Comment -
Good topic Nick, you got my head spinning now...[/quote]
When I cap NHL, I look at 2 factors when it comes to travel - Days rest and Time zones traveled. But, that is only 2 out of about 25 total that go into a game. Travel does get some additional weight however especially when there are 2 or more time zones involved. I noticed watching Florida last night that they were going to stay in Cali until the morning which makes sense considering a cross country flight is involved.Even if you spend the day traveling, you don't lose the next day because you've been on a plane all night. I agree that the NHL does a much better job resting it's players than the NBA which treats their players like animals during road trips. But, NBA players get the money and the high end stuff in return.You're welcome, sir. Please drop in and contribute and information or questions, etc. that you have along the season. The more the merrier. This is a great point. I'm not exactly sure how to account for this statistically (or if it even warrants quantitative analysis), but my model DOES adjust for back-to-back games, and 3 games in 4 nights stretches. I do think the NHL does a fairly decent job of scheduling games. In this case, they played Carolina (East Coast) on Tuesday, and travel to LA to play tonight. What helps is the fact that this is a late game (10:30Eastern), so they get an extra few hours thanks to the NHL schedulers. Also, FL is 8-5 playing away games this year...and scoring more goals when they play there. Will look into travel distances with a little more gusto at some point in the off season, but my guess would be that: 1) It doesn't affect good teams as much as bad teams (teams w. deeper benches, etc.) 2) The effect is compounded as the season progresses (after 60 games played, traveling might be of larger impact) Question for anyone that may know: Do teams differ in their travelling protocol? Do some teams fly out as soon as possible after a game, and others recuperate before traveling? Would be interested to see if every team adopts the same strategy or they're all different. If I were a coach, I'd want my team to get a workout in after the game and get some quality rest in before hopping on an airplane, so I would tend to lean towards leaving as late as possible while still giving my team time to adjust for time differences/weather, what have you. In all honesty though, these guys are professional athletes that are USED to this sort of thing, so again, my guess would be that it doesn't affect teams that are healthy. Good topic Nick, you got my head spinning now... Comment -
When I cap NHL, I look at 2 factors when it comes to travel - Days rest and Time zones traveled. But, that is only 2 out of about 25 total that go into a game. Travel does get some additional weight however especially when there are 2 or more time zones involved. I noticed watching Florida last night that they were going to stay in Cali until the morning which makes sense considering a cross country flight is involved.Even if you spend the day traveling, you don't lose the next day because you've been on a plane all night. I agree that the NHL does a much better job resting it's players than the NBA which treats their players like animals during road trips. But, NBA players get the money and the high end stuff in return.[/quote]
Great point. But yeah, if Chicago travels to Columbus for a game, I'm not too worried about it from a handicapping standpoint. If they fly to Vancouver, I give a weighting factor to their travel figure. But again, I wonder if it factors more heavily near the end of the season than the beginning...
Comment -
Plays for Dec. 5th:
Bruins +120
Coyotes +135
I actually think there is tremendous value on Phoenix here...The Madhouse on Madison is a tough place to play an away game, but Hawks aren't playing their best puck right now..Comment -
Today went 1-0, +1.00 unit
Overall:83-70-6, -1.60 units
Just a reminder, plays for tomorrow, Dec. 5th are:
Bruins +120
Coytotes +135
, all...going to start killing it here.
Comment -
Absolutely crazy amount of movement on the BOS/PIT game...30 points of movement in our direction is great news! The derivatives markets are scaring me a little bit, especially the team totals, as Pittsburgh is projected to get more goals based on those. But I believe this is a case of the public overvaluing Crosby. Granted, he can single-handedly win games for the Pens, it's still a team game, and Boston is playing Championship defender hockey right now...
Comment -
First play for tomorrow, Dec 6th:
Wild +160
Possibly more later...Comment
Be weary, everyone.