NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

rthoughton · 01-12-11, 10:27 PM

Both are final.

S1 YTD 6-1, +5.75u
S2 YTD 2-4, -0.45u

HollywoodPuck · 01-13-11, 01:05 AM

Awesome! Pitt and Ducks spread!!

rthoughton · 01-13-11, 01:41 PM

PICKS FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 13th.

S1 PLAY:
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +105 (@ TDGarden)

S2 PLAY:
EDMONTON OILERS +190 (@ SJ)

Dbear13 · 01-13-11, 04:01 PM

Been watching since you started the thread...The S1 play is looking pretty good...it's kinda surprising in a GOOD way... Keep up the good work...I will throw points your way once I start betting with it

Sawyer · 01-13-11, 04:06 PM

Good luck mate.

Btw, I strongly recommend to have an account in Betting Exchange. I was able to pick Edmonton a +220.

Wallco99 · 01-13-11, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Good luck mate.

Btw, I strongly recommend to have an account in Betting Exchange. I was able to pick Edmonton a +220.

Watch Edmonton, they are 10-24 as dogs this year, they are actually the worst team in NHL as dogs. And with the exception of four games, the rest of their 10 wins were less than +150 odds. One of the four teams I usually lean away from. But who knows, any team can win on any given night. But some stats should factor in.

rthoughton · 01-13-11, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Watch Edmonton, they are 10-24 as dogs this year, they are actually the worst team in NHL as dogs. And with the exception of four games, the rest of their 10 wins were less than +150 odds. One of the four teams I usually lean away from. But who knows, any team can win on any given night. But some stats should factor in.

Edmonton fits the system. the +220 is nicer.

Optional · 01-13-11, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by Axis

I'm interested in the "highest in the standings" portion...as for the biggest dog of the night...I posted some stats in your other thread about that...

I've tracked it all season because I too was looking at it and it hasn't fared all that well...27-53 on the season thus far (when there are 4 or more games on the day)

Have you got the stats at hand to easily check how the shortest price dog of the day has fared?

Also 27-53 is .337, meaning the average odds need to be +197 to break even. Have you got the average odds the biggest dogs have been at handy too?

Wallco99 · 01-13-11, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by rthoughton

Edmonton fits the system. the +220 is nicer.

OK.

Axis · 01-13-11, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Have you got the stats at hand to easily check how the shortest price dog of the day has fared?

Also 27-53 is .337, meaning the average odds need to be +197 to break even. Have you got the average odds the biggest dogs have been at handy too?

Sadly, I only have the odds of the 27 teams that won...and I didn't track the short dogs because I wasn't interested in it at the time

the .337 was pretty good for me because I was using it for parlays which early in the season were doing great...but I laid off them just after the new year because they were slow going.

blaucoin · 01-14-11, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by rthoughton

PICKS FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 13th. S1 PLAY: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +105 (@ TDGarden) S2 PLAY: EDMONTON OILERS +190 (@ SJ)

Nice S2 win...too bad the flyers couldnt pull it off. Are you guys betting straight up? or are yall using a labby line or chase?

rthoughton · 01-14-11, 11:04 AM

Just betting straight up. I was considering a chase, but nah. just straight.
Tuff beat on the Flyers last night. Loved getting them at +$ but figured beating the Smoking Hot Bruins would be a tough task. They are on fire.
PLAYS FOR FRIDAY JAN 14:

Vancouver Canucks. +120
S1 YTD 6-2, +4.75u

NJ Devils. +185
S2 YTD 3-4, +1.45u

Optional · 01-14-11, 10:14 PM

I've been taking S1 and parlaying S1 with S2 the last 3 days. (just to win 1 unit on each)

2-1 on the S1s and 2-1 on the parlays. Love ya work RT

rthoughton · 01-15-11, 09:24 AM

that is a really good idea. thanks for sharing.

S1 YTD 7-2 +5.95
S2 YTD 4-4 +3.30u

snipeshow23 · 01-15-11, 01:28 PM

keep up the good work rt... was at the colorado game last night but saw you hit both!

rthoughton · 01-15-11, 04:51 PM

Real quick plays for Tonight. Saturday Jan 15.

S1 TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +115.

S2 Edmonton Oilers +180.

good luck tonight. Football time.

chizzy · 01-15-11, 06:42 PM

i played Pittsburgh as the S1 play as they are 3 points higher than Tampa Bay. but good luck.

rthoughton · 01-15-11, 06:54 PM

ya, i was traveling. I knew the Pens had the best record. didnt get there in time. thanks for the correction tho. i appreciate it.
This will surely be a loser. Maybe that should void the play? eh? ha.

easywinner · 01-15-11, 07:14 PM

Cool thread, I'll have to follow along from now on. I'd chalk today up as a win since the pens won and were the correct play. 8 out of 10 on system 1 is pretty damn good. What made you think of system 1, have you done this in the past or did you just decide to try it this season?

Dbear13 · 01-15-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by rthoughton

ya, i was traveling. I knew the Pens had the best record. didnt get there in time. thanks for the correction tho. i appreciate it.
This will surely be a loser. Maybe that should void the play? eh? ha.

I think that you should still count it as a system win cuz the system was correct...it was just human error. But maybe edit the wrong pick to make note of the error so u don't get people asking why the system total doesn't match what they get based on the picks that are posted. Think I'm gonna start betting with you next week.

chizzy · 01-15-11, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by Dbear13

I think that you should still count it as a system win cuz the system was correct...it was just human error. But maybe edit the wrong pick to make note of the error so u don't get people asking why the system total doesn't match what they get based on the picks that are posted. Think I'm gonna start betting with you next week.

yep i agree. system was correct. was just recorded wrong. anyone can check and see that it was the correct play. count it as a system 1 win.

Yungmef · 01-15-11, 07:55 PM

so wait... are you betting sbr points?

blaucoin · 01-16-11, 08:02 AM

So, the flyers would be the S1 pick today? I think its time to put some money on this system

rthoughton · 01-16-11, 10:10 AM

HA. Nice guys, thanks for the bail out!!! Ill take the WIN!! haha.
This system 1 and 2 came about while picking teams in the ""'dogs tonight? every night?"" thread. I was trying to think of ways to pick from the dogs on the slate. This seemed like an obvious way to do so.
Also, later on in the thread, someone gave their strat/system for picking dogs. kinda neat, too.

So yesterday SHOULD HAVE been the PENS. I dont have the line anymore. was it like +ev or +105 or something?
S1 YTD 8-2-0, +7u ish??
S2 YTD 4-5-0, +2.3u

rthoughton · 01-16-11, 10:13 AM

PLAYS FOR SUNDAY JAN 16th.

SYSTEM 1 : PHILADELPHIA FLYERS. +ev
YTD 8-2-0

System 2: Ottawa Senators +185
YTD 4-5-0

I love these plays today. Washington is really struggling.

tuxStyle · 01-16-11, 10:52 AM

One more thing.
Usually dogs have +0.5 at pinnacle.
Very good odds and if the game is draw after 3 periods you win the bet there. No need for OT.

I followed another system here for a while (a variant of JM) and even if the OP lost two lines i didn't because of the +0.5

Chucker · 01-16-11, 11:09 AM

Wow...this system looks pretty solid. Has anyone tried tracking this back through the season? I did a brief look through december (which is tough, because you just kind of have to guess where people are in the standings), but it looks to usually go 1-1, which is still profitable. Only thing I might suggest is staying away from games where there are 4 games or less in the lineup for that night, as your less likely to get big dogs it seems.

bjornbarspingvin · 01-16-11, 11:26 AM

Philly is great but Vancouver is steamrolling and as far i know they played against minnesotas 4th string goalie because of goalie injury.

Yungmef · 01-16-11, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by rthoughton

So yesterday SHOULD HAVE been the PENS. I dont have the line anymore. was it like +ev or +105 or something?
S1 YTD 8-2-0, +7u ish??
S2 YTD 4-5-0, +2.3u

are you betting or tracking? if betting, are you betting money, or points?

Dbear13 · 01-16-11, 05:48 PM

Flyers are now the favorite.

easywinner · 01-16-11, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by Dbear13

Flyers are now the favorite.

Likely cause i saw Lundqvist is unlikely to start. So what now, is it still the correct play for system 1 since it was when the lines came out or do we use closing lines?

Dbear13 · 01-16-11, 06:34 PM

I would say a play since the picks have to be made before the 1st game starts, we can't wait for closing lines. Just my thoughts

bjornbarspingvin · 01-16-11, 08:06 PM

Van just look lazy and dont engage on rebounds. What à crap bet week.

Axis · 01-16-11, 09:48 PM

I'd say go by opening lines...because that's what we're all trying to take advantage of...the best team at the highest +money you can get them at.

bjornbarspingvin · 01-17-11, 05:02 AM

I think I will run bets after this system only. I watch and follow hockey alot and read the stats, but it seems that any given game is just ending up with a different winner. Like the 4th string goalie of Minny pulling a shutout out of his ass to the red hot Canucks, although hís previous save percentage was 80%. December was awesome for me, won alot, but January has been crap. I think I need to follow your system for awhile.