ElCapitan's 2010-2011 NHL Season

[Wallco99]

Wallco, the PL actually is a +1.5 line, since you are playing the dog in this game.

IF the visiting team is favored, YOU DON'T PLAY THE -1.5 PL, you throw in one more unit to the ML.

Let's take yesterday as example.
There were 6 picks.
Florida ML
Florida PL +1.5
Kings ML
Kings PL +1.5
Chicaho ML (fav)
Chicago ML (Being the favorite, you usually don't have books offering +1.5 on favs, altough Betcris does at -400 or someting juice. You also don't play -1.5 PL, you just throw another unit to the ML)
There are 6 series to track.
Florida lost by 1 goal. The ML series go to a B play. The PL series Ends with a Victory.
Kings lost by one goal. The ML series go to a B play. The PL series ends with a victory
Chicago won (It doesn't matter by how many goals) The ML series ends with a victory. The PL series ends with a victory.

This is a total contradiction from JMD post, but looking back at previous plays, it seems you are correct. So we are never laying (-1 1/2), double on M/L. Did anyone ever backtest results on (-1 1/2)? These are usually pretty good (+) odds, how often do these teams cover by two?

[Wallco99]

The V1 A and B bets are not doing really well at all. They are not doing badly, they are basically just breaking even. The average odds on JM NHL bets are -250. You post above that A and B bets are a combined 25-10.
25-10 at -250 odds gives a profit of 0. This is clearly reflected in Cap's spreadsheet (with a couple extra A/B wins from the 1st 7 games).

I have followed this system for years, and the A and B bets have always made either a small profit, or more regularly, a small loss. Average profit/loss for A bets in particular is always a loss, and this will continue. 19-8 on A bets makes a loss with average odds.

JM disciple you are right in saying that with this system the C bets are where all the money comes from. Given the odds, the A and B bets do not make you the money. Again, this is clearly reflected in Cap's spreadsheet. (btw thanks for posting the spreadsheet cap.) At -250 odds you need to hit better than 70%, which the A and B bets do not do. Particularly the A's

Whatever, I am not going to argue. The actual results including the games I missed at beginning of season for standard v1 are:

(A) 31-12
(B) 8-4
(C) 4-0

The difference is being up 43 units at this point or 4 units by betting only (C), unless you are putting 10 units on (C) bets to make up for the (A) victories that you missed, in that case it is not a three game chase, it is a giant wager on one game. I am just saying that I am up 35 units since I started, if I waited til (B) I would be up 10 units, and (C) four units, unless I placed bigger wagers. Whatever you are comfortable with, as long as you end up ahead. One (C) loss your way could put you in the negative for the whole season if your wager is too big, since the opportunities for (C) bets are slim. Good Luck.

[Wilba]

Whatever, I am not going to argue. The actual results including the games I missed at beginning of season for standard v1 are:

(A) 31-12
(B) 8-4
(C) 4-0

The difference is being up 43 units at this point or 4 units by betting only (C), unless you are putting 10 units on (C) bets to make up for the (A) victories that you missed, in that case it is not a three game chase, it is a giant wager on one game. I am just saying that I am up 35 units since I started, if I waited til (B) I would be up 10 units, and (C) four units, unless I placed bigger wagers. Whatever you are comfortable with, as long as you end up ahead. One (C) loss your way could put you in the negative for the whole season if your wager is too big, since the opportunities for (C) bets are slim. Good Luck.

Who said anything about arguing? What you just posted shows exactly what I am talking about - all I was saying was that if you look at the breakdown of where the + units have come from, nearly all the profit is from the C wagers - you posted 41-16 on the A's and B's (at -250 average odds of course) which just makes for breaking even on that part of the system (+2 units or something). More than 90% of the profit has come from placing the large (winning) C wagers which cover the losses from A and B, plus the one unit profit.

If you had just waited for the C's to come, and risked the same amount on the C's as what those who had played A and B risked on the whole series, your profit would actually be higher than the 43 units that you currently have from playing the system as a whole. It's easy to check if you don't believe me! (whether you risk it all on the C, or split the risk over 3 bets, it still is the same series risk) Of course if you waited for the C's and only played for 1 unit then your profit would be smaller, but that is akin to playing to win 0.1 units from A, of course if you play to win 1/10th of a unit you make less money than if you play to win 1 unit on a winning system.

Don't get me wrong, Im not at all saying that playing A's or B's is bad, I was just summarizing Cap's spreadsheet, which shows that playing C's is where basically all of the profit has come from this season, and also shows that if you just put the whole series risk on the C bets if/when they come up, that you would actually make more money.

[stevex]

You guys go back and forth between this and that "play just C," "play just A and C," "play just B and C." It's ridiculous. NBA and NHL are both 3-game chases for a reason, period.

[ElCapitan]

Not really on topic here and I don't want to start a huge discussion about it but how is the NBA system doing this year?

[ElCapitan]

2/4/11 Plays

V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) ML +175 (1 to win 1.75)
V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) PL -160 (1.6 to win 1)

V2 Florida Panthers (C) ML +122 (2.73 to win 3.33)

[tuneman]

NBA JMV1 SYSTEM THROUGH FEB 3:

A Bets 27 Wins 21 Losses 1 Push
B Bets 17 Wins 5 Losses
C Bets 2 Wins 3 Losses

The 3 C Losses have wiped out all winnings this year. I am down only about a half unit because I did not chase the first C loss due to a conflict with another system I use. Not a good year. Not to beat a dead horse but would be in the black if only bet first 2 games and ignored chasing the loss to a 3rd game. I would be up around 18.5 units then. The NHL chase performs much better.

[mrginandtonic]

V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) ML +175 (1 to win 1.75) V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) PL -160 (1.6 to win 1) V2 Florida Panthers (B) ML +122 (2.73 to win 3.33)

good day, Cap; I believe it is a typo on your Florida ML, it should be a C bet, the units are correct. My questions is that it looks like the V2 is heating up a little, how you feel bout this C bet for tonight?

[ElCapitan]

good day, Cap; I believe it is a typo on your Florida ML, it should be a C bet, the units are correct. My questions is that it looks like the V2 is heating up a little, how you feel bout this C bet for tonight?

You are correct. FLA is a C bet.

How do I feel about it? Pretty good. They are small underdogs mostly due to being on the road. It has as good a chance as any. Plus it's a ML C bet so the unit outlay is not huge.

[mrginandtonic]

thanks Cap. also, V2 has done pretty well since the break, albeit only a few days.

[Wilba]

all I was saying was that if you look at the breakdown of where the + units have come from, nearly all the profit is from the C wagers

Don't get me wrong, Im not at all saying that playing A's or B's is bad, I was just summarizing Cap's spreadsheet

whatever stevex.. i guess you don't know how to read. nothing was ever said about not playing the system as A,B,C. I MYSELF play from A on this system (although I only play ML from A, but that's irrelevant) Next time if you are gonna criticize then at least know what you are talking about coz you have done this heaps of times. I was careful to say that I was just summarizing Caps spreadsheet, and that I was not saying that one way was better or worse than another.

[Wilba]

and stevex, if your comment is directed towards the NBA discussion about B/C, all I can say is you are incredibly narrow minded if you can't see that +30 extra units average every season, including this one, is not a good thing. Not like it's a theory either, it's a fact, and it has been proven in the NBA thread, over a long period. You play NBA sys differently too, so your way is right and everyone else is wrong? even if there are proven facts showing that a B/C mod gets more profit than traditional way? pfft

And Cap, yeah JM NBA not doing great so far this year if you follow it strictly you are down a few units (about 15 off the top of my head, over all versions)

[ElCapitan]

2/4/11 Results

V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) ML +175 (1 to win 1.75) *LOSS*
V2 Edmonton Oilers(A) PL -160 (1.6 to win 1) *LOSS*

V2 Florida Panthers (C) ML +122 (2.73 to win 3.33) *WIN*

Record:
ML: 108(A)-55(B)-31(C) (+31.78)
PL: 108(A)-31(B)-11(C) (-57.53)

[ElCapitan]

2/5/11 Plays

V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +127 (1 to win 1.27)
V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -220 (2.2 to win 1)

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +165 (1.21 to win 2)
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -180 (4.68 to win 2.6)

V1 New York Rangers (A) ML +121 (1 to win 1.21)
V1 New York Rangers (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1)

V1 Ottawa Senators (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05)
V1 Ottawa Senators (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)

[J.M. Disciple]

Shouldn't SJS be a play today?
I know SJS won their last game ML, but the PL -1.5 didn't cover.

Isn't it like 4 different systems? I thought we were suppose to continue with SJS until they covered -1.5....

I say 4 different systems because:
v2ML
v2 PL
v1ML
V1 PL

[Wallco99]

Shouldn't SJS be a play today?
I know SJS won their last game ML, but the PL -1.5 didn't cover.

Isn't it like 4 different systems? I thought we were suppose to continue with SJS until they covered -1.5....

I say 4 different systems because:
v2ML
v2 PL
v1ML
V1 PL

An earlier poster explained to me that we are not playing the (-1.5) line on favorite teams, but rather doubling up on the M/L in those games. Similar to v1 standard, NEVER GIVE UP POINTS.

[jphil]

wouldn't ya know it, i decide to hop on the v1 A bet bandwagon tonight, after playin b/c bets for most of season. that's all folks! onward to Monday.

[ElCapitan]

You never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever play the -1.5. End of story.

[tuneman]

Any plays today Cap?

[J.M. Disciple]

on 2/2/11
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1)
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)

when you listed sharkz this day PL was -1.5... Maybe im misunderstanding PL

[J.M. Disciple]

only 3 games... doesn't look like any plays....

[ElCapitan]

2/5/11 Results

V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +127 (1 to win 1.27) *WIN*
V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -220 (2.2 to win 1) *WIN*

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +165 (1.21 to win 2) *LOSS*
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -180 (4.68 to win 2.6) *WIN*

V1 New York Rangers (A) ML +121 (1 to win 1.21) *LOSS*
V1 New York Rangers (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1) *LOSS*

V1 Ottawa Senators (A) ML +105 (1 to win 1.05) *LOSS*
V1 Ottawa Senators (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 111(A)-56(B)-31(C) (+29.84)
PL: 111(A)-32(B)-11(C) (-58.83)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Sunday, 2/6/11.

Enjoy the Superbowl!

[ElCapitan]

on 2/2/11
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1)
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)

when you listed sharkz this day PL was -1.5... Maybe im misunderstanding PL

I make these bets at Matchbook and there the Sharks were +1.5 because they were small underdogs.

[Kev the Brit]

EC, I believe that on 2/5 Ottawa lost on the PL.

Kev

[ElCapitan]

Wow. You are so right. I was out late last night and it shows. I'm fixing the post and record. It was Edmonton that won the PL.

[Wallco99]

on 2/2/11
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1)
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)

when you listed sharkz this day PL was -1.5... Maybe im misunderstanding PL

Couldn't have been, if M/L was +110. Maybe when you checked, they were the favorite instead of the dog. That happens quite often in NHL, favorites switch back and forth on close line teams. Just be careful what you are putting your money on.

[ElCapitan]

2/7/11 Plays

V2 Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +125 (1 to win 1.25)
V2 Colorado Avalanche (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1)

V2 Edmonton Oilers (C) ML +215 (1.49 to win 3.21)

V1 New York Rangers (B) ML +165(1.21 to win 2)
V1 New York Rangers (B) PL -175 (5.78 to win 3.3)

V1 Ottawa Senators (B) ML +236 (0.85 to win 2)
V1 Ottawa Senators (B) PL -125 (4.5 to win 3.6)

[dlunc3]

sick empty netter....

[Wallco99]

sick empty netter....

That was the third time in these two series, two empty netters in the (A) bets.

[ElCapitan]

2/7/11 Results

V2 Colorado Avalanche (A) ML +125 (1 to win 1.25) *LOSS*
V2 Colorado Avalanche (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1) *LOSS*

V2 Edmonton Oilers (C) ML +215 (1.49 to win 3.21) *WIN*

V1 New York Rangers (B) ML +165(1.21 to win 2) *LOSS*
V1 New York Rangers (B) PL -175 (5.78 to win 3.3) *WIN*

V1 Ottawa Senators (B) ML +236 (0.85 to win 2) *LOSS*
V1 Ottawa Senators (B) PL -125 (4.5 to win 3.6) *LOSS*

Record:
ML: 112(A)-58(B)-32(C) (+29.99)
PL: 112(A)-34(B)-11(C) (-62.33)

[ElCapitan]

2/8/11 Plays

Just one V2 play today.

V2 Carolina Hurricanes (A) ML +100 (1 to win 1)
V2 Carolina Hurricanes (A) PL -295 (2.95 to win 1)

[masticore]

I have back test in a databas about c-bet....

Cant have parameters (in this databas): next 2 games is a road - so i can only analyse c-bets (there I know that we already have played 2 road games)

I think i have miss some parameters...so tell me if you see any I miss or have wrong about

But so far:

When All teams played as a road team Coming off a 2 road stand Coming off a 2 losing streak Last 5 years (if I have correct parameters away team with 2 earlier roadloss)

su results: 59-61

Some miss ratio is here because it counts also 4+ road
A example with this is: A-bet win...but lose next 2 so it will count the 4th game (as the 3th game)

[J.M. Disciple]

No bets for 2/ 9 El captain?

[J.M. Disciple]

Ottawa is a "C bet" tonight right +1.5 ?