Dogs and Pucklines

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  • fjordo
    SBR MVP
    • 11-26-09
    • 1298

    #106
    To anyone that was following the plays, Dennis Green has started a thread called "Trying out a system", which is the same as what I was doing. If you are still interested in following, or playing, the lines/plays will be posted there.
    I will keep track in here, of how often the favourite wins by exactly 1 goal, and I will also be keeping an eye on DGs thread to see how things continue the rest of the season.
    Comment
    • fjordo
      SBR MVP
      • 11-26-09
      • 1298

      #107
      Fav by 1: 5-14 = 26.3%
      Comment
      • fjordo
        SBR MVP
        • 11-26-09
        • 1298

        #108
        Fav by 1: 6-24 = 20%
        Comment
        • fjordo
          SBR MVP
          • 11-26-09
          • 1298

          #109
          Fav by 1: 7-26 = 21.2%
          Comment
          • fjordo
            SBR MVP
            • 11-26-09
            • 1298

            #110
            Fav by 1: 8-37 = 17.7%
            Comment
            • fjordo
              SBR MVP
              • 11-26-09
              • 1298

              #111
              Fav by 1: 11-40 = 21.5%
              Comment
              • Toronto Fc
                SBR Hustler
                • 01-02-10
                • 85

                #112
                Pretty much right on the break even line. If it stays in the low 20% range for the rest of the year we can try to figure out what odds we can lay in order to get +EV out of this system. There are numbers where it works, just need to figure it out.
                Comment
                • Mini19
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-28-09
                  • 294

                  #113
                  Originally posted by fjordo
                  To anyone that was following the plays, Dennis Green has started a thread called "Trying out a system", which is the same as what I was doing. If you are still interested in following, or playing, the lines/plays will be posted there.
                  I will keep track in here, of how often the favourite wins
                  by exactly 1 goal, and I will also be keeping an eye on DGs thread to see how things continue the rest of the season.
                  I can't find this thread that your talking about..
                  Comment
                  • fjordo
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-26-09
                    • 1298

                    #114
                    Originally posted by Toronto Fc
                    Pretty much right on the break even line. If it stays in the low 20% range for the rest of the year we can try to figure out what odds we can lay in order to get +EV out of this system. There are numbers where it works, just need to figure it out.
                    If I had been keeping track of this stat from when I started the thread, I am pretty sure the number would be below that 20% barrier. Still just seems to be hovering right around it though doesn't it.
                    Comment
                    • fjordo
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-26-09
                      • 1298

                      #115
                      Originally posted by Mini19
                      I can't find this thread that your talking about..
                      Maybe he isn't keeping track of it anymore, as it looked like he was actually going to lay money on it, and keep track. I wasn't actually betting, just seeing if it would be profitable. If there is anyone that wants to post the plays and lines feel free to, as I just don't have the time anymore.
                      Comment
                      • Toronto Fc
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 01-02-10
                        • 85

                        #116
                        Originally posted by fjordo
                        If I had been keeping track of this stat from when I started the thread, I am pretty sure the number would be below that 20% barrier. Still just seems to be hovering right around it though doesn't it.

                        Which is too bad because as we get closer to the playoffs, games always tighten up and I would be shocked if there weren't more games where the faves cover by one now then in the fall. When I get some time I will try to back test this using closing lines going back as far as I can.
                        Comment
                        • fjordo
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-26-09
                          • 1298

                          #117
                          Originally posted by Toronto Fc
                          Which is too bad because as we get closer to the playoffs, games always tighten up and I would be shocked if there weren't more games where the faves cover by one now then in the fall. When I get some time I will try to back test this using closing lines going back as far as I can.
                          You may be right about the tighter games, and I guess only time will tell. Any more info you can find, will Im sure help. I think the off season is when I will try to tweek the system, and get it prepped for next year. I think I will test out the first couple weeks of next season, and if all goes well, thats when I will make my move.

                          After last nights games, Fav by 1: 12-44 = 21.4%
                          Comment
                          • Nimo
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 01-22-10
                            • 105

                            #118
                            I did this in 2003/4 for the entire season, not including playoffs, just playing both sides + money dogs and + money -1.5 favs. I ended up +12 units for the season. Not great but better than losing.
                            Comment
                            • fjordo
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-26-09
                              • 1298

                              #119
                              Originally posted by Nimo
                              I did this in 2003/4 for the entire season, not including playoffs, just playing both sides + money dogs and + money -1.5 favs. I ended up +12 units for the season. Not great but better than losing.
                              +12 units, is +12 units, can't complain with that. Now are you counting 1 unit as the amount bet on each game, or would you have bet 2 units on each game (1 unit on the dog and 1 on the PL)?
                              Comment
                              • Nimo
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 01-22-10
                                • 105

                                #120
                                1 unit on the dog and one unit on the puck line. I didn't put much thought into it and I wish I had my notebook to go back and study it further to break down for any filters. I am a pretty strict keeper of my records but I had a large flood in my basement a couple of years ago and a lot of my old records were destroyed.
                                Comment
                                • Toronto Fc
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 01-02-10
                                  • 85

                                  #121
                                  October 2009 faves by one 52-135. 27%

                                  Will try to get through November before my wife gets home.
                                  Comment
                                  • Toronto Fc
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 01-02-10
                                    • 85

                                    #122
                                    November 2009 57-143. 28.5%
                                    Comment
                                    • Toronto Fc
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 01-02-10
                                      • 85

                                      #123
                                      Can't do any more right now but it isn't looking very profitable at the moment based on these figures.
                                      Comment
                                      • fjordo
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-26-09
                                        • 1298

                                        #124
                                        After last nights games, Fav by 1: 14-50 = 21.9%
                                        Comment
                                        • fjordo
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 1298

                                          #125
                                          After last nights games, Fav by 1: 15-56 = 21.1%
                                          Comment
                                          • Toronto Fc
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 01-02-10
                                            • 85

                                            #126
                                            I wonder what it looks like if you just take the dogs in every game? Recently I bet it has been profitable.
                                            Comment
                                            • Nimo
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 01-22-10
                                              • 105

                                              #127
                                              As with all trends in the long run they all lead to 50/50. It's the universe's way to keep us balanced LOL
                                              Comment
                                              • fjordo
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-26-09
                                                • 1298

                                                #128
                                                After last nights games, Fav by 1: 19-60 = 24%
                                                Comment
                                                • fjordo
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-26-09
                                                  • 1298

                                                  #129
                                                  After last nights games, Fav by 1: 21-64 = 24.7%
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Toronto Fc
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 01-02-10
                                                    • 85

                                                    #130
                                                    This shouldn't move to 50/50 but I think about 27%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • fjordo
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-26-09
                                                      • 1298

                                                      #131
                                                      After last nights games, Fav by 1: 25-70 = 26.3%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fjordo
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-26-09
                                                        • 1298

                                                        #132
                                                        After last nights games, Fav by 1: 27-71 = 27.5%
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Toronto Fc
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 01-02-10
                                                          • 85

                                                          #133
                                                          I'm going to try to put together some figures to see if there are any lines where this is profitable at 27%. In order for it to be profitable, you have to lay less then -270. I don't know if there are any numbers where this is consistently profitable but I'm going to find out.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fjordo
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-26-09
                                                            • 1298

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by Toronto Fc
                                                            I'm going to try to put together some figures to see if there are any lines where this is profitable at 27%. In order for it to be profitable, you have to lay less then -270. I don't know if there are any numbers where this is consistently profitable but I'm going to find out.
                                                            Ya, this hasn't been working good lately.
                                                            What if we were to instead of bet on the -1.5PL, bet on the -1PL? I know our odds wouldn't be quite as good, but we would never lose two bets in one game.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Toronto Fc
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 01-02-10
                                                              • 85

                                                              #135
                                                              Can you give me an example? I'm not sure I follow along. I'm going to ask Irish Tim to help me on this so give me an example from one of todays games and I will come back with some details.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • fjordo
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-26-09
                                                                • 1298

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Toronto Fc
                                                                Can you give me an example? I'm not sure I follow along. I'm going to ask Irish Tim to help me on this so give me an example from one of todays games and I will come back with some details.
                                                                I don't completely follow myself, but was told about this on another forum.

                                                                'OK, so here is the general theory: You take the $100.00 that you would have either bet on the money line or the traditional -1.5 run line. You're going to split that up into a money line bet and a traditional run line wager. However there is a specific formula that you have to follow in order to assure yourself a true advantage and thus create yourself a -1.0 run line. Here's the formula:
                                                                100/MONEYLINE = X
                                                                X + 1.0 = Y
                                                                100/Y = money line wager
                                                                OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line. The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield. Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:
                                                                100/MONEYLINE = Z
                                                                Money line wager x Z = A
                                                                A = run line wager

                                                                OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager. For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.
                                                                If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:
                                                                Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:
                                                                100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
                                                                0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
                                                                100/1.769 = 56.53
                                                                That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20. Your overall card would look like this:
                                                                Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
                                                                Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
                                                                Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.
                                                                So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.
                                                                Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet. Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Already in 2007 I've lost three run line plays by a measly half of a run. Those three plays were worth 11 Units, meaning that I would be up that much more if I had played the -1.0 run line.
                                                                By creating a -1.0 run line for yourself you may be reducing your odds on individual plays but overall you're limiting your exposure while also improving your long-term odds at a profit. ' by Straguzzi
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