Show Me The Odds

[statnerds]

Sportsbooks frequently get smashed by syndicates, and have no idea who hit them. They only know they were hit, and can ID accounts that hit them. When they limit those accounts (or start moving too quickly on bets from those accounts), the syndicates just create new accounts.

so the books don't know whom is hitting them, the syndicates rely on secrecy and create bogus accounts, but if one were to watch line movements one would know which ones to follow?****

so everyone knows why the lines are moving except the books?

**** - this phrase will be used by some to hurl insults in effort to distract readers. easier to attack the messenger than refute the message.

[Thremp]

No one knows what happens till after. Its the same way RAS works. "k folks on the count of 3 gogogogogogogoogog"

Your limited experience is rather obvious. You'd be better served asking more questions and providing less misleading "discussion".

[Dank_Fire]

Intresting topic @ hand here....I figured that most books enjoy large syndicate action to draw opinions off of and to help balance action if needed

back to the topic reguarding the thread title...Ive been using this line service for a while, they are pretty sharp with there player updates that cross the wire...im not sure how fast there line moves are for the vegas books,

[statnerds]

No one knows what happens till after. Its the same way RAS works. "k folks on the count of 3 gogogogogogogoogog"

Your limited experience is rather obvious. You'd be better served asking more questions and providing less misleading "discussion".

questions it is:

1. did you just equate RAS to Syndicates?

2. Books are unaware which plays are syndicate plays?

3. no one knows til after? after what? the release? the line move? the game starts? the game ends?

4. how can you prove what caused a line move?

5. here is a sample of line moves from the last 2 days. extreme small sample size i know. but how could you decipher the source of the line move?

Monday
Team....open....close....result (meaning line moved correctly (W) or incorrectly (L)
Cards....135....117....L
D-backs....110....122...W
Rays...171.....160....L
Jays....150....127....W
Oak...+100....114....L
Sea..+110....105...L

Tuesday
Brewers...140...122...W
Rockies...125....108...L
Cards...215....174....L
Rangers....145...119...L
Jays...135...108....L
W Sox...145....120....L
Yanks...260....240....W

6. any flaws in efficient market hypothesis?

7. why the insults again?

[Dark Horse]

Statnerds, you need to learn to read the line movements yourself, and you're insane if you think that anyone that has learned to 'read between the lines' is going to share that information with you.

You have the question. That's a good thing. Now go find the answer. Nobody cares if you don't.

[Thremp]

I'm not insulting you. You're just a beginner who is throwing out theories. If you understand some basic ideas behind line movements, you'd become a better arbitrageur. Stunningly arbitrageurs understand line movements much better than other players because of their skillset. If you took time to learn this before making comically naive comments, you'd learn some things. As it is, you're just a poseur posting random ideas as they pop into your head and continually trolling this subject.

As with Dark Horse, I don't really give a **** about you and actually would prefer that you fail since in a small way it would bolster my own success but moreso because of your attitude. I would be saddened though if in a J7-esque turn of fate, someone actually mistook you for an expert.

[statnerds]

DH - i find your honesty refreshing.

i must say i stand opposite in the aspect of sharing secrets. not necessarily secrets, but i believe in helping, teaching and assisting those not as advanced. i would never expect anyone to give away secrets or to spell out the process, especially in a thread on an open forum such as SBR. i imagine very few people that 'learned to read between the lines' didn't completely alone and received zero help along the way.

[statnerds]

I'm not insulting you. You're just a beginner who is throwing out theories. If you understand some basic ideas behind line movements, you'd become a better arbitrageur. Stunningly arbitrageurs understand line movements much better than other players because of their skillset. If you took time to learn this before making comically naive comments, you'd learn some things. As it is, you're just a poseur posting random ideas as they pop into your head and continually trolling this subject.

As with Dark Horse, I don't really give a **** about you and actually would prefer that you fail since in a small way it would bolster my own success but moreso because of your attitude. I would be saddened though if in a J7-esque turn of fate, someone actually mistook you for an expert.

here is something i picked up during my fancy book learning days in college and my experience in management: attitude does not exist. you can not discipline someone based on 'attitude'. it is not a measurable attribute, therefore, it is subjective rather than objective. that was a freebie.

i notice during your insult laced rant where you claim to not be insulting, that you failed to address any of the questions you said i should stick to. so when faced with questions you cannot answer you change to insults and avoidance? ask questions so you can dodge them?

if you went back to page 4 when i began asking questions, you would see a distinct pattern and if you were paying attention you would have arrived at the point of my line of questioning. actually we arrived there, the heart of my question, but i had to drag it out of you. if i just came in and said "there is no way to tell what causes a line move" you would have gone straight to insults. by asking simple, innocent questions i allowed you to walk yourself down the path, much like a trial lawyer leading, or cornering, a witness. and we reached our destination, you figured out the trap and ended the Q & A. guess i am the only one that finds that strange. for all the posts by those 'in the know', still a fuk-ton of questions unanswered and avoided.

i never requested help in this thread or asked for someone to give the secret to line moves. i simply took the position of questioning accepted wisdom on the subject. the 14 results i posted from 2 days covers more than the data not posted in 9 months.

the crux of the problem here is you defending a position while providing zero data. i, along with every other person reading this thread, should just take your word for it? we should just line up like sheep without questioning anything you postulate? but then you follow with 'do your own work'? you are defending a position over data that doesn't exist, much like obama telling America how many jobs were 'saved'. there is no way to measure saved jobs, much as there is no way or little way to measure 'syndicate' plays that cause line movements.

this arguing in circles will never end because when we get to the payoff, you go KC and the Sunshine Band and put on your Boogie Shoes and dance around questions. again, you expect myself and any other "inexperienced bettor" (i'm fine with this definition, even with its erroneous assumption on your part) to just accept your statements while seeing no evidence or proof that substantiates your claims?

here are more from today, although it is Thursday, and i don't need to tell you what that means for MLB there sport....am i right?

Cubs.....155....168...L
Mil....139...127
Cards....164.....140
Yanks....179...190....W
KC....174....152...L

man, somebody fo sho took a bath on that Royals' game, but it wasn't the syndicates or the books, right? relax frankie, joking about 1 game doesn't mean i am naive enough to use 1 game out of the 2,500+ that will happen this year as proof. although 1 game is more than anything i have seen from your side.

[djiddish98]

I'm not sure what you're getting at by grading these games - Just because a team loses, it doesn't mean favorable line movement is "incorrect"

[losturmarbles]

I would be saddened though if in a J7-esque turn of fate, someone actually mistook you for an expert.

wow

[tomcowley]

Cubs.....155....168...L
Mil....139...127
Cards....164.....140
Yanks....179...190....W
KC....174....152...L

The cubs were a classic case of "taiwanese" steam- not sure why they get called that, since they're really Japanese, and they had inside info from K-Fuk that Lilly was due for a great game.

Your line source on Milwaukee is awful. Pinnacle moved 2c. Sharp players bet the Pirates in some form almost every day.

The St Louis game is a classic sharp play- Garcia has been pitching over his head, Blanton can't get the garbage out, and they just consider it variance. This line actually got bet down even more before the donk squad rushed in to bet OMFG amazing 2.2 ERA Garcia up to the moon.

Sharps know that Greinke hasn't been living up to projections at all. Almost all of this move was in the overnights. Then he woke up and threw a strong game today. Oops.

Do you know how much underground money gets bet on Yankees games? Do you know two of their pitchers are hurt? The people know that even their "influence" isn't going to win the game when their 10th string pitcher walks 15 people, so they had to call it in when they still had a big name pitching. The other team plays hard early, to make it look good, but if they **** up a syndicate bet late, it's all on that one person, and it's not a pleasant life. Their families don't get killed or anything, but believe me they have to pay off the debt later in spades. Why do you think Mariano gets so many saves? The other team doesn't even WANT to hit him. Just sayin.

[Thremp]

Sigh. You still refuse the existence of DonBest. Awesome. Clearly someone who is able to lead a meaningful gambling discussion.

[pats3peat]

Sportsbooks frequently get smashed by syndicates, and have no idea who hit them. They only know they were hit, and can ID accounts that hit them. When they limit those accounts (or start moving too quickly on bets from those accounts), the syndicates just create new accounts.

so true

[statnerds]

Sigh. You still refuse the existence of DonBest. Awesome. Clearly someone who is able to lead a meaningful gambling discussion.

actually pulled all the lines move from Don Best as they are the best site for opening and closing odds. like these ones from Thursday

cincy from 200 to 173 W
Cards from 175 to 156 W only took 4 days of heavy backing on the Phils for people to finally win that one
Minn from 180 to 143 L D'oh
NYY from 325 to 280 L D'oh
Bos from 175 to 150 L D'oh

so now all the lines that i have pulled from Don Best are bogus because one poster claims one line was bad? fukkin classic.

man your breakdown after the results were known was tremendous. the way you knew which were sharp and which weren't by taking the result into consideration. spot on.

fukk i hate having to win the arguments for you, but nearly a year and none of you stupid fukks could just go copy and paste?

Real-Time Odds Annual Subscription (Save $789) $5,199

again from DonBest

but you seem to lack the brains to connect dots. a year sub for real time odds is over $5K. that begs the question: if chasing line movements or reading between the lines is futile, why would the market it price this high?

of course people paying that much money still face variance as a liability. and since the time frame on variance is both undefined and unpredictable, there will be consumers that swear by the service, and others that will say it is worthless.

of course books that have millions of dollars at stake on a daily basis would never have the foresight to determine the validity of such a service and to insulate against possible loses due to players developing an edge.

so i guess our argument ends with me providing the best evidence for both sides. you will never be able to produce significant data to bolster your claims. so the circle will continue. i will continue to drop some line movement results, you guys will continue to point out sharp money winners after the game is over. it will never end.

[Thremp]

What do you want data wise? And why would I have any incentive to provide it? I know I'm correct, everyone else knows I'm correct. Yet you magically want evidence that chasing steam (Despite the litany of logical arguments on why its successful) works. Again, did you track the win percentage of betting "steam plays" at Donbest? Or are you denying that these have ever existed...?

[djiddish98]

cincy from 200 to 173 W
Cards from 175 to 156 W only took 4 days of heavy backing on the Phils for people to finally win that one
Minn from 180 to 143 L D'oh
NYY from 325 to 280 L D'oh
Bos from 175 to 150 L D'oh

Again, why are you grading these plays? Chasing steam is not about "picking winners", from what I understand of it.

Is anyone surprised that the yankees won at -280? No. Would someone have still bet on the Royals if they were getting +325 near close? I would think so (albeit not much of their BR).

Also, I sensed some sarcasm from TomC (and I enjoyed the post).

[durito]

here you have easy info to make lots of money, yet you are denying it and begging for 30k a year job.

[djiddish98]

of course books that have millions of dollars at stake on a daily basis would never have the foresight to determine the validity of such a service and to insulate against possible loses due to players developing an edge.

Also, I don't bet at a lot of books, but I'm pretty sure there's a human on the other end adjusting the lines, not a robot (excluding certain books).

[jgilmartin]

I am a Don Best subscriber. The 2009 Steam Plays record was 2341-2021-60 (53.7%). At -110 average odds (I don't know if that is the case, but it is mostly football and basketball spreads and totals, so it's probably close) that would be a profit of 118 units for the year.

[wrongturn]

I don't quite understand the argument. If you bet all the 5 dogs in your example, you will make a small profit. If you got in earlier, the profit would be higher. so...

[statnerds]

I am a Don Best subscriber. The 2009 Steam Plays record was 2341-2021-60 (53.7%). At -110 average odds (I don't know if that is the case, but it is mostly football and basketball spreads and totals, so it's probably close) that would be a profit of 118 units for the year.

how much of that 118 Unit profit would be lost on sub fees?

here is where we will disagree again. over 4,400 play in a year? more than 12 plays a day?

so on one hand we are lead to believe that the markets are efficient, meaning finding +EV wagers long term is extremely difficult...

and yet we are also expected to believe that 12+ times a day the market is wrong?

which one is it? both cannot exist.

[jgilmartin]

Well, of course your profit after subscription fees would vary based on your unit size, but suppose your unit was $500. In that case, it would be (118 * 500) - 5199 = 53,801. If you paid for the subscription monthly instead of annually, the profit would be around $53,000. Even if your unit was only $100, you would still be up $6,601 (although yes, you would be spending half your gross profit on the subscription).

I don't believe that the fact that betting steam works means the market is inefficient, only that some books are slower to react than others, and that profit can be made by exploiting this. My post was just an example of Don Best steam plays working to make a profit (which seemed to be in dispute in this thread), nothing less, nothing more.

[Thremp]

how much of that 118 Unit profit would be lost on sub fees? here is where we will disagree again. over 4,400 play in a year? more than 12 plays a day? so on one hand we are lead to believe that the markets are efficient, meaning finding +EV wagers long term is extremely difficult... and yet we are also expected to believe that 12+ times a day the market is wrong? which one is it? both cannot exist.

In all seriousness, you have no place posting in this forum.

[statnerds]

In all seriousness, you have no place posting in this forum.

so you contend the market is inefficient?

[djiddish98]

how much of that 118 Unit profit would be lost on sub fees?

here is where we will disagree again. over 4,400 play in a year? more than 12 plays a day?

so on one hand we are lead to believe that the markets are efficient, meaning finding +EV wagers long term is extremely difficult...

and yet we are also expected to believe that 12+ times a day the market is wrong?

which one is it? both cannot exist.

Opener != Closer in terms of efficiency.

Some books adapt to information a lot faster than others.

It's not like we're dealing with a central exchange that only quotes one price.

[statnerds]

Well, of course your profit after subscription fees would vary based on your unit size, but suppose your unit was $500. In that case, it would be (118 * 500) - 5199 = 53,801. If you paid for the subscription monthly instead of annually, the profit would be around $53,000. Even if your unit was only $100, you would still be up $6,601 (although yes, you would be spending half your gross profit on the subscription).

agreed you can money doing it.

but what the posers that hurl insults never do is explain how can anyone can do it after they admit that "steam chasers" get limits or booted. so now am in not only $5,200 in the hole before i start, i need to find a book that is

A. slow to react
B. doesn't hit players with limits

additionally, i imagine at least a 2% variance from that posted record and the record compared to the closing line. even a 1% variance in the record you would barely be above B/E at 52.7%.

it is fukking exhausting trying to pin down the double talk. and when you finally get them cornered, they take their ball and go like fukkin crybabies. seems anytime a debate and serious questioning goes against their pre-conceived notions, it is the messenger that is attacked, and not the message.

i thank you for coming in and posting numbers, which i assume are honest.

[Thremp]

I have said the same exact ******* thing for months. You never even bothered to do any ******* research.

[HoulihansTX]

Just to clarify. A couple of posters said about a week ago that Show Me The Odds was going to route of a pay service.

That as been yet to be proven, and my service is humming along.

They have upgraded also.

[statnerds]

I have said the same exact ******* thing for months. You never even bothered to do any ******* research.

ha-ha

man you need some weed or pussy or both.

funny you once again have a lengthy tirade insulting and attacking me, while avoiding any effort to address the honest questions that arise from your illogical positions that can be documented in this thread.

so you believe the market is efficient?

oh wait

so you believe the market is inefficient?


so you believe players that chase steam will face limits?

oh wait

so you don't believe players that chase steam will ever face limits?

so you don't think 1,000s of people doing the same thing you are doing has any effect on the value you are after?

oh wait

so you know that even with 1,000s of other bettors in the market place doing exactly what you do (why else would the market put a fair price of $5,200 on the service?) you are going to get the best line, the best value and still post a winning record even after the line has moved?

fuk you are amazing.

can we hang out. i'll shine your shoes.

[djiddish98]

You're confusing the stock market with a collection of sportsbooks

[tomcowley]

Chasing steam is completely worthless. Donbest is massively overpriced and everybody who subscribes to it is throwing money away. You're 100% right. You win. Now go back to players talk forever.

[Flight]

Just picked up the ShowMeTheOdds app. So far I really like it! Although it would be nice to be able to pause the "recent changes" dialog, or otherwise make it more usable (impossible to read it!)

[Thremp]

J7 showing an example of legit moderation ITT. Throwing warnings to some people and infractions to others.

I wonder why.

[losturmarbles]

?? what's with the edits? did Statnerds report Thremp for abusive language? I realize Justin is probably subscribed to this thread, but I read the post, laughed, and moved on. I don't even remember it being that abusive... just a lot of *******.

What's even more puzzling is the edit on TomCowley. Justin edits out the sacastic reference that Thremp doesn't know what he's talking about? Is this a preemptive move in case Thremp takes Cowley literally and gets offended?

What's the point of a forum if you can't have free speech?

[Thremp]

Circumvention of the profanity filter, rampant personal attacks, selective edits, and I get warned.

Amazing. Just downright amazing. From the man that is shilling his book and won't even pony up dollars after he called me a liar.