When do sharp players bet? Does it matter?

[AlgoLady]

Picks are posted, I dare you to find errors and bloated numbers. I DARE YOU. Not my fault if you are not smart enough to be able to make sense out of the picks or are too lazy to back up your claim.

The first page i read of yours people were already calling you out for posting plays after the game has started LOL i don;t need to go much further.

[Alfa1234]

The first page i read of yours people were already calling you out for posting plays after the game has started LOL i don;t need to go much further.

True, which is why I started posting picks the instant I took them after that. Find me those bloated numbers.

[danshan11]

Your right everyone does have a different way to skin a cat but everyone that is a winner has 3 main things in common good with money management, good with not tilting, and last but not least being able to pick winners.

in my humble opinion there is no such thing as picking winners!

[Alfa1234]

in my humble opinion there is no such thing as picking winners!

Off course there is, it's just almost impossible to do it long term if you don't beat the CL.

[AlgoLady]

True, which is why I started posting picks the instant I took them after that. Find me those bloated numbers.

[AlgoLady]

Off course there is, it's just almost impossible to do it long term if you don't beat the CL.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL coming from a guy betting 10+ games a day!

[Alfa1234]

Algolady, you are so clearly a troll. You registered 10 days ago, as a female, to a betting forum and have now accumulated 10 posts a day, half of them intended to "show your winning ways" and the other bunch to simply troll others. What is your old/other username?

[AlgoLady]

Algolady, you are so clearly a troll. You registered 10 days ago, as a female, to a betting forum and have now accumulated 10 posts a day, half of them intended to "show your winning ways" and the other bunch to simply troll others. What is your old/other username?

Aww a women can't have an opinion either? Don't be mad cause a female put you on blast it's ok and so what I post my NHL plays look at the name of your "thread" you started to post your plays and tell me that's not a look at me thread so hold your horses.. What because I've been here a few weeks means I should not talk or speak my opinion silly rabbit. Also I don't boast when I win I post my plays and keep my record that's it when I win or when I lose I do it as soon as the games over unlike you where you go weeks without updating hoping the 5 people who follow you get lost in the jumbled shit you post like I said I go to the first page of your thread and you were ALREADY called out for posting after the games started and you think people are going to believe you go forward??? LOL I just like calling morons out when I see them. It's ok sweetie don't be intimidated a women knows sports.

[danshan11]

Algo you are talking a ton but not saying anything

I ask this question a ton
do you know more about the NHL than Pinnacles model and all the consensus of bettors in the world?

and if you think the Hurricanes have a 60% chance of winning, why does Pinnacle and the rest of the world think they only have a 55% chance? Please explain

[AlgoLady]

You and your BFF are in every thread telling everyone what they are doing wrong like you know anything lol. I see a lot of talk from you 2 and no results where are your plays I asked you this already I guess you missed that post? A lot of talk from guys that show no results and think they have the answers to everything, funny part is your talking about the ONLY way you can be long term profitable is if you beat the closing line so your telling me this Alfa kid is betting 10+ games a day and beating the line in 80% of them?? LOL just stop your not talking to a dumb dumb I no what it takes to win i'm posting my plays and units and update them daily check back in when NHL is wrapping up so you can see i'm in the green we can talk and talk and talk numbers don't lie (unless your Alfa and post plays after they start). Danshan start posting your "winning plays" so we ALL can see since your a big winner and you can tell everyone what is just variance and what isn't until then i'm done talking to you 2 clowns. PS if your going to make a thread asking how to do something don't correct everyone that tells you something and tell them what's flawed, like your posting winners daily your afraid your going to start posting then look like a clown when your true numbers are shit? Yea I think that's exactly what it is.

[danshan11]

yes that is the typical answer I get from people on those 2 questions, your response actually looks like a tout template

but here are the questions again if you want to take a shot at them

do you know more about the NHL than Pinnacles model and all the consensus of bettors in the world?

and if you think the Hurricanes have a 60% chance of winning, why does Pinnacle and the rest of the world think they only have a 55% chance? Please explain

[AlgoLady]

yes that is the typical answer I get from people on those 2 questions, your response actually looks like a tout template

but here are the questions again if you want to take a shot at them

do you know more about the NHL than Pinnacles model and all the consensus of bettors in the world?

and if you think the Hurricanes have a 60% chance of winning, why does Pinnacle and the rest of the world think they only have a 55% chance? Please explain

This doesn't even deserve a real answer what does this even mean? Who said anything about percentages they think they have to win?? Who said they have a better model then Pinnacle? Do me a favor and answer why you don't post your plays genius funny you avoided that ? for what 4 hours now?

[danshan11]

you are picking NHL games and I assume you choose a team because you think that team has a better chance than the implied odds of that team for that game, right?

[Alfa1234]

Danshan, this guy is only out to troll. There is no point in discussing something because you can give all the evidence you want...he'll never acknowledge any of it. As I said, it's like a flat earther. You can fly him around the world in a plane without changing direction and he'll still deny it's round.

[danshan11]

doesnt mean its still not fun to discuss it!

[QuantumLeap]

If someone is making stupid bets with big money, they won't be able to keep it up very often or for very long. When someone is making good bets, they'll keep making them every day. A $15,000 may not have been from someone who knows how to make good bets, but the odds say it most likely was

You would be surprised at how many people with big money will reload. It's just like us small bettors. We bet a couple hundred per bet and when we lose it all we reload. Same with those betting $10k+ per game that moves the line. They have the money to reload when they have lost their banroll.

Don't underestimate the number of dumb people who have big money.

[QuantumLeap]

Danshan, this guy is only out to troll. There is no point in discussing something because you can give all the evidence you want...he'll never acknowledge any of it. As I said, it's like a flat earther. You can fly him around the world in a plane without changing direction and he'll still deny it's round.

Seems like whenever we get a good topic to discuss that helps us against the books some troll comes in to shit up the thread by derailing it into a topic that isn't remotely related to the thread topic.

[TommieGunshot]

You would be surprised at how many people with big money will reload. It's just like us small bettors. We bet a couple hundred per bet and when we lose it all we reload. Same with those betting $10k+ per game that moves the line. They have the money to reload when they have lost their banroll.
Don't underestimate the number of dumb people who have big money.

-If they were truly dumb, they probably wouldn't have big money.
-They may not be betting with an edge and a $15,000 bet on a college football game is just like when Charlie Sheen or Michael Jordan are betting that much on every hand of blackjack
-Almost all other big money losing players in any other form of gambling (poker, slots, table games, et cetera) are doing it recreationally and only occasionally.
-Betting on sports doesn't have some unique pull that makes Floyd Mayweather do it so much more than the other stupid shit he does with his money. He probably bets five figures on a game no more than once per week. The guys who do well enough to earn a good living are the ones doing it multiple times per day, every day
-If someone is a known whale, the highest volume books won't move lines on their action.

[QuantumLeap]

-If they were truly dumb, they probably wouldn't have big money.
-They may not be betting with an edge and a $15,000 bet on a college football game is just like when Charlie Sheen or Michael Jordan are betting that much on every hand of blackjack
-Almost all other big money losing players in any other form of gambling (poker, slots, table games, et cetera) are doing it recreationally and only occasionally.
-Betting on sports doesn't have some unique pull that makes Floyd Mayweather do it so much more than the other stupid shit he does with his money. He probably bets five figures on a game no more than once per week. The guys who do well enough to earn a good living are the ones doing it multiple times per day, every day
-If someone is a known whale, the highest volume books won't move lines on their action.

Yeah, I shouldn't have used the word "dumb". It can have many connotations. A person can be a dumb sports bettor yet still be successful in business.

I do like your last point though. If the books know a long-time loser is putting down big money they won't necessarily move the line.

[danshan11]

I think people say that but how do we assume that is true by common sense or our imagination?

I could see an argument that smart player knows better and I could see an argument of reduce risk on one side. I think each his own on how they handle risk. I think pinnacle if they think the line is -11 and even though they get some early smart plays against that they might ride that line longer but I am not certain about any part of this book movement