When do sharp players bet? Does it matter?

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  • AlgoLady
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-31-18
    • 96

    #106
    Originally posted by danshan11
    the winning and losing of a few hundred games is unfortunately what most people use to determine a winner. That is super flawed and does not properly display the skill and or knowledge of a player
    This
    Comment
    • danshan11
      SBR MVP
      • 07-08-17
      • 4101

      #107
      Originally posted by AlgoLady
      Well from your logic this is a pointless thread because your telling me you need 100000's of games to determine a winner who in here is going to show you that they are a long term winner of 10000's bets no one is so pretty much anything anyone says you can just say yea but is it winning over 1000's upon 1000's of bets. So like I said this thread is really pointless from your logic cause if someone says they are a winner you will say yea but are you doing it over 100000's games if not then your not considered a winner.

      we might not have the records but it can be very helpful to discuss the best way to try and get there, what makes that conversation useless?
      Comment
      • danshan11
        SBR MVP
        • 07-08-17
        • 4101

        #108
        Originally posted by AlgoLady
        This
        if I showed you this what would you say?

        W L P Win % CLV
        Overall 75 49 2 60.48% 1.70%
        Sides 30 25 2 54.55% 0.03%
        Totals 45 24 0 65.22% 3.16%
        does that prove I am a winner? of course not, that is only one season of WNBA not enough to determine anything
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        • danshan11
          SBR MVP
          • 07-08-17
          • 4101

          #109
          or this does this say anything
          League Win % W L P CLV
          MX 28.57% 2 5 0 0.51%
          MLS 33.33% 3 6 0 0.06%
          CFL 57.14% 8 6 1 0.95%
          MLB 44.44% 44 55 5 0.93%
          Comment
          • danshan11
            SBR MVP
            • 07-08-17
            • 4101

            #110
            these are all just plain and simple not enough records and the big issue is if someone gets on a hot streak people think that person knows something.
            Comment
            • danshan11
              SBR MVP
              • 07-08-17
              • 4101

              #111
              you can look at my CLV tab on this sheet for last years nba



              again great season but in reality not enough data to prove anything to me or you!
              Comment
              • AlgoLady
                SBR High Roller
                • 10-31-18
                • 96

                #112
                If someone shows you numbers through 200-400 games it's not luck trust me you don't need 10,000 games to determine if your sharp or not...And you can tell people till your blue in the face on what is a winning blue print they are still going to bet or do what they want 95% of people who bet don't have what it takes to become a winning bettor or someone who makes money long term let's just tell it how it is because it's more then just 1 thing you need to have great money management you need to not be a degan and bet 25 games a week + you need to be able to pick winners I don't care about if you don't beat the line that's a myth imo if I bet a game at +115 instead of +125 or bet a team at -115 instead of EVEN money that's not going to determine if im a winner you still need to be on the right side more then not.
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                • Alfa1234
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-15
                  • 2722

                  #113
                  Originally posted by danshan11
                  I think alfa does even though I cant decipher much from it because he bets womens 3rd string volleyball and whatever stuff.


                  In my defense, there's a bunch of big markets in there as well. You can find every game on oddsportal.

                  Update here:


                  I now have a total of 32275 plays in my spreadsheet. Only started posting plays a few months ago.
                  Comment
                  • danshan11
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-08-17
                    • 4101

                    #114
                    Alfa me and you are on the same team. I like making fun of your 3rd string womens g string football league bets! I know you know what it takes to win!
                    Comment
                    • danshan11
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-08-17
                      • 4101

                      #115
                      Originally posted by AlgoLady
                      If someone shows you numbers through 200-400 games it's not luck trust me you don't need 10,000 games to determine if your sharp or not...And you can tell people till your blue in the face on what is a winning blue print they are still going to bet or do what they want 95% of people who bet don't have what it takes to become a winning bettor or someone who makes money long term let's just tell it how it is because it's more then just 1 thing you need to have great money management you need to not be a degan and bet 25 games a week + you need to be able to pick winners I don't care about if you don't beat the line that's a myth imo if I bet a game at +115 instead of +125 or bet a team at -115 instead of EVEN money that's not going to determine if im a winner you still need to be on the right side more then not.

                      this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

                      You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

                      400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently
                      Comment
                      • Alfa1234
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-19-15
                        • 2722

                        #116
                        Originally posted by danshan11
                        this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

                        You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

                        400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently
                        I believe you are kinda correct. Show me 400 bets and I can probably tell if it's a long term winner or loser. Doesn't mean he's a winner in those 400 bets though.
                        Comment
                        • AlgoLady
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-31-18
                          • 96

                          #117
                          Originally posted by danshan11
                          this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

                          You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

                          400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently
                          I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.
                          Comment
                          • danshan11
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-08-17
                            • 4101

                            #118
                            you can see here these are my pending bets so far today since yesterday, I am adding more all day long as I finish capping games but here from this sample you can see the constant punishing of the line

                            Comment
                            • danshan11
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-08-17
                              • 4101

                              #119
                              Originally posted by AlgoLady
                              I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.

                              you need to beat the line >50% of the time above the juice to be a long term winner. You also need to have enough plays to overcome variance. I can beat the line but my problem is I cant beat it enough times per day to overcome variance. MY whole goal now is to get enough wagers a day to beat the line all the time and eventually 100 or more times a day to be a winner.

                              I full disclose I am not there and as good as I am against the line I dont have enough plays to consider myself a long term winner.

                              and if you flip a coin 400 times say 10 sets of 400 you will lose about 50% of the time
                              2 times lose bad
                              2 times barely lose
                              2 times 50-50
                              2 times win barely
                              2 times win big
                              400 is nothing!
                              Comment
                              • AlgoLady
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 10-31-18
                                • 96

                                #120
                                Originally posted by danshan11
                                you can see here these are my pending bets so far today since yesterday, I am adding more all day long as I finish capping games but here from this sample you can see the constant punishing of the line
                                I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.
                                Last edited by AlgoLady; 11-09-18, 02:23 PM.
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                                • AlgoLady
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 10-31-18
                                  • 96

                                  #121


                                  Follow my thread for NHL and I bet you i'm in the green come the end of the year. Why? because I stick to what i'm good at which is horses and NHL I don't bet just to bet I pick my spots I rarely have days where I play more then 1 game yea I no I only have 9 plays thus far which means nothing but my style is more profitable then yours 100%. No chance you will ever catch me betting 8 games in 1 day that's one of the worst things you can do as a bettor.
                                  Comment
                                  • Alfa1234
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-15
                                    • 2722

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                    I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.
                                    If you GUARANTEE he won't win 50% you are beating all laws of probability and variance as he actually has a 49.9% chance of hitting over 50%. Come on man. Give him a million flips and he still has 49.999999% of going over 500 000 wins.

                                    Now, if you are talking about hitting over 55% and make a profit on juiced lines, the odds of that are off course far lower but still very likely to happen as he has a 90% chance of hitting between 160 and 240 wins. Considering he only needs 220 to make money he still has a 25% chance of making it happen.
                                    Comment
                                    • Alfa1234
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-19-15
                                      • 2722

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                      https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post28165083

                                      Follow my thread for NHL and I bet you i'm in the green come the end of the year. Why? because I stick to what i'm good at which is horses and NHL I don't bet just to bet I pick my spots I rarely have days where I play more then 1 game yea I no I only have 9 plays thus far which means nothing but my style is more profitable then yours 100% no chance you will ever catch me betting 8 games in 1 day that's one of the worst things you can do as a bettor.
                                      Whatever works for you, but I GUARANTEE you are better off playing 5000 games with 5% EV than playing 50 games with 20% +EV.
                                      Comment
                                      • AlgoLady
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 10-31-18
                                        • 96

                                        #124
                                        Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                        If you GUARANTEE he won't win 50% you are beating all laws of probability and variance as he actually has a 49.9% chance of hitting over 50%. Come on man. Give him a million flips and he still has 49.999999% of going over 500 000 wins.

                                        Now, if you are talking about hitting over 55% and make a profit on juiced lines, the odds of that are off course far lower but still very likely to happen as he has a 90% chance of hitting between 160 and 240 wins. Considering he only needs 220 to make money he still has a 25% chance of making it happen.
                                        BINGO meaning 75% chance he won't hit 55%
                                        Comment
                                        • AlgoLady
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-31-18
                                          • 96

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                          Whatever works for you, but I GUARANTEE you are better off playing 5000 games with 5% EV than playing 50 games with 20% +EV.
                                          I don't believe that
                                          Comment
                                          • Alfa1234
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-19-15
                                            • 2722

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                            I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.
                                            Weird, because I'm posting roughly 10 picks per day, am at 559 documented picks now since September in that thread and up 84 units.

                                            I guarantee you my spreadsheet looks exactly the same with the 32275 documented bets I've made over the years and the ROI is also very good.

                                            You have a different style, but you can absolutely be profitable making 10+ bets every day.
                                            Comment
                                            • Alfa1234
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-19-15
                                              • 2722

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by AlgoLady

                                              BINGO meaning 75% chance he won't hit 55%
                                              Yes, and 25% he does make money. You GUARANTEED he wouldn't even hit 50%. Read about "survivorship bias".
                                              Comment
                                              • danshan11
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-08-17
                                                • 4101

                                                #128
                                                Algo I do agree with you that 99.9% of what I say is not "fact" its just my opinion and I think people dont like what i say because it kinda goes against how most people play! I do try and listen to what others say, I have learned a lot when I first came on to the betting world. I thought I could tell if they Patriots could cover, oh how dumb was I! I thought I somehow magically had this formula that was better than the entire betting consensus and the expert models the books and pros use! What an idiot I was!
                                                Comment
                                                • Alfa1234
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-19-15
                                                  • 2722

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                  I don't believe that
                                                  Nothing to believe about it, it's very simple mathematics.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • AlgoLady
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 10-31-18
                                                    • 96

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                                    Weird, because I'm posting roughly 10 picks per day, am at 559 documented picks now since September in that thread and up 84 units.

                                                    I guarantee you my spreadsheet looks exactly the same with the 32275 documented bets I've made over the years and the ROI is also very good.

                                                    You have a different style, but you can absolutely be profitable making 10+ bets every day.
                                                    Your thread is so jumbled how can anyone tell what your up and what your not? No chance your picking 10+ games a day and up and doing it for years and years NO CHANCE
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                      • 2722

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                      Your thread is so jumbled how can anyone tell what your up and what your not? No chance your picking 10+ games a day and up and doing it for years and years NO CHANCE
                                                      There's an update every now and then with the picks nicely placed in a spreadsheet...don't know how much more clear it can get. And "no chance"...based upon what? Your informed opinion about what I do?? HAH. No need to believe me buddy, just trying to broaden your horizon. There's a lot of ways to make money and if your way works for you, that's great but don't dismiss other methods out of hand simply because you, for some reason, don't think they are possible.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • AlgoLady
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 10-31-18
                                                        • 96

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by danshan11
                                                        Algo I do agree with you that 99.9% of what I say is not "fact" its just my opinion and I think people dont like what i say because it kinda goes against how most people play! I do try and listen to what others say, I have learned a lot when I first came on to the betting world. I thought I could tell if they Patriots could cover, oh how dumb was I! I thought I somehow magically had this formula that was better than the entire betting consensus and the expert models the books and pros use! What an idiot I was!
                                                        I sure hope you base plays off what people say
                                                        Comment
                                                        • AlgoLady
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 10-31-18
                                                          • 96

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                                          There's an update every now and then with the picks nicely placed in a spreadsheet...don't know how much more clear it can get. And "no chance"...based upon what? Your informed opinion about what I do?? HAH. No need to believe me buddy, just trying to broaden your horizon. There's a lot of ways to make money and if your way works for you, that's great but don't dismiss other methods out of hand simply because you, for some reason, don't think they are possible.
                                                          Every now and then LOL nobody's keeping track of that jumbled mess do daily updates or it means nothing anybody can throw numbers in their when everything is so jumbled cause nobody is keeping track of that garbage I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt there is a 0% chance you will be profitable betting 10+ games a day for years and years 0%.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Alfa1234
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-19-15
                                                            • 2722

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                            Every now and then LOL nobody's keeping track of that jumbled mess do daily updates or it means nothing anybody can throw numbers in their when everything is so jumbled cause nobody is keeping track of that garbage I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt there is a 0% chance you will be profitable betting 10+ games a day for years and years 0%.
                                                            You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • danshan11
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-08-17
                                                              • 4101

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                              I sure hope you base plays off what people say

                                                              I dont know what you mean
                                                              Comment
                                                              • danshan11
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-08-17
                                                                • 4101

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                                                You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.
                                                                dont be a quitter, I like to discuss this stuff and so do you! Everyone has a different way to skin the cat!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • AlgoLady
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-31-18
                                                                  • 96

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                                                  You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.
                                                                  I would to because we might find out the mess of a thread and fake numbers your bloating out is full of shit smart move.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • danshan11
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-08-17
                                                                    • 4101

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                                    I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.
                                                                    if you look at the current line of these and the closing lines compared to what i pay and you will quickly see I am on the right side of most of these bets!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                                      • 2722

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Originally posted by AlgoLady
                                                                      I would to because we might find out the mess of a thread and fake numbers your bloating out is full of shit smart move.
                                                                      Picks are posted, I dare you to find errors and bloated numbers. I DARE YOU. Not my fault if you are not smart enough to be able to make sense out of the picks or are too lazy to back up your claim.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • AlgoLady
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 10-31-18
                                                                        • 96

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by danshan11
                                                                        dont be a quitter, I like to discuss this stuff and so do you! Everyone has a different way to skin the cat!
                                                                        Your right everyone does have a different way to skin a cat but everyone that is a winner has 3 main things in common good with money management, good with not tilting, and last but not least being able to pick winners.
                                                                        Comment
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