When do sharp players bet? Does it matter?

[danshan11]

does the movement at 1655 mean anything?

[Alfa1234]

Depends on the game. You see this all the time. If this is not such a huge market, anyone could have caused that movement on Pinnacle by placing a 500€ bet.

[danshan11]

that is a major NBA over under line about 30 minutes before tip off.

what do you think typically causes that in major markets and does it mean anything to me (us) as bettors?

[Alfa1234]

It could be anything, change in lineup, injury or simply a huge amount of money coming in on that side. Also depends on what bookie these movements are from.

[danshan11]

Pinnacle and there was not major news on this game that I could find, does it mean anything

[tsty]

It is pretty obvious why there are more losers closer to the start time

Like really obvious

You ask a question about sharp players and come to a conclusion based on random data that includes everyone at different sample sizes

Basic stuff

[danshan11]

It is pretty obvious why there are more losers closer to the start time

Like really obvious

You ask a question about sharp players and come to a conclusion based on random data that includes everyone at different sample sizes

Basic stuff

are you a politician or a lawyer? You literally used 100 words and said nothing

[tsty]

are you a politician or a lawyer? You literally used 100 words and said nothing

use your brain and figure it out

basic logic

[bhoor]

That's a problem with a place like the Forum and posting plays. I post all the plays in my Funds because, while it is a pool of +EV plays, that's according to my methods. It's best, and far less risky, to bet all the plays instead of trying pick the best ones out of the group.

When the market is too efficient, going with the best bets would eventually destroy your bankroll. For example, some folks lost 6 best bets in BTP in a row, while winning other regular bets. Good model with multiple bet selections will only bring results in this too-efficient markets.

[danshan11]

use your brain and figure it out

basic logic

Use my brain and figure out what?
I believe that people who bet last minute are long term losers.
I believe that people who bet right after pitch last game of the night are probably the "sharpest" if will bettors
I believe that anyone that thinks they can predict the outcome of a particular game is crazy
I believe that syndicates surely could bet last minute and win, but their margins must be razor thin.
I believe all this and the reason I am in this thread with all the above beliefs is because, obviously someone with money is big time last second moving these lines and I am curious why.

[Alfa1234]

Pinnacle and there was not major news on this game that I could find, does it mean anything

It means someone placed a huge amount of money on that line and made it move. Huge late bets like that are usually syndicates that found the line to have value right before closing but it could be a random fan that wanted to throw 50k on it...you cannot find true meaning in it as you have no way to determine who placed the bet and why it was placed.

[tsty]

99.99% of betters are long term losers so what is your point? Most people who bet openers are life time losers as well lol so what?

People who bet 65 120 300 openers are not "sharps" lol no matter how much gloss you want to add

You just cant grasp the simple fact that edge isnt money and the only thing that matters is $$ earnt

It is a very simple math problem

You can either bet 500 for 8% edge or bet 20k at 2% edge

I wonder which one makes more money?

[danshan11]

if you give me +110 on coin flips and I lose the first round of 1000, I am a long term loser?

[tsty]

What happens when they bet 50% of their bank roll every game? Lol do you think a book cares if regulars have edge or not? Like I said in the past EG is the only thing that matters

[danshan11]

bankroll management of course is very important. I think some books care if a player has an edge, what is your point?

[Husker36]

Im just shocked that BigDaddy has not responded to this thread!

[danshan11]

Im just shocked that BigDaddy has not responded to this thread!

I chased him out long ago!

[bhoor]

Danshan, You're doing a good job with these threads.

[danshan11]

thanks, I wish we had a beer to crack open, LOL

[QuantumLeap]

It means someone placed a huge amount of money on that line and made it move. Huge late bets like that are usually syndicates that found the line to have value right before closing but it could be a random fan that wanted to throw 50k on it...you cannot find true meaning in it as you have no way to determine who placed the bet and why it was placed.

I like to say that there are stupid people who make big bets. Just because a line moves a lot doesn't mean it's sharp money.

[TommieGunshot]

Pinnacle and there was not major news on this game that I could find, does it mean anything

Most likely a large amount of money came in. Could have been a large bettor / team that identified an edge. Or could have been another bookie that took one sided action and was buying off.

[TommieGunshot]

I like to say that there are stupid people who make big bets. Just because a line moves a lot doesn't mean it's sharp money.

If someone is making stupid bets with big money, they won't be able to keep it up very often or for very long. When someone is making good bets, they'll keep making them every day. A $15,000 may not have been from someone who knows how to make good bets, but the odds say it most likely was

[Alfa1234]

What happens when they bet 50% of their bank roll every game? Lol do you think a book cares if regulars have edge or not? Like I said in the past EG is the only thing that matters

Simply not true, off course they care. Getting limited and closed accounts would not exist otherwise.

[tsty]

Simply not true, off course they care. Getting limited and closed accounts would not exist otherwise.

I was replying to his post which I thought he was implying that it doesnt matter who bets first since they would be winners regardless since they got on with good ev however my point still stands

If a bookie knows that you are a loser they will accept you regardless

You would be very surprised how much whales can get on at certain odds

[Alfa1234]

True, books don't care if you are occasionally beating the line, after all one could argue you have a 50% (min the juice) probability of doing that if you bet early.

[danshan11]

True, books don't care if you are occasionally beating the line, after all one could argue you have a 50% (min the juice) probability of doing that if you bet early.

this is one reason CLV can scare me a bit, it could just as easily have variance and that is why I am not just on the beating the line train, I think the only way to win is BIG BIG BETS, huge bankroll, fixed profit stakes, and tons of active bets everyday.
need to bet 20-40 games a day minimum
high stakes hoping for a less than 1% edge so you actually make something
need 70%> CLV and 55%>CLV higher than margin overall

[Alfa1234]

this is one reason CLV can scare me a bit, it could just as easily have variance and that is why I am not just on the beating the line train, I think the only way to win is BIG BIG BETS, huge bankroll, fixed profit stakes, and tons of active bets everyday.
need to bet 20-40 games a day minimum
high stakes hoping for a less than 1% edge so you actually make something
need 70%> CLV and 55%>CLV higher than margin overall

Off course not every closing line is correct, it's about the long term average of it being correct. I have started to believe it may be possible to make money by not beating the line though, if you can spot those games that are "off" and do have CLV but that's extremely hard to do, much harder than simply beating the line consistently.

[AlgoLady]

All this knowledge in this thread does anyone here have a season long thread on SBR with there winning plays?

[danshan11]

I think alfa does even though I cant decipher much from it because he bets womens 3rd string volleyball and whatever stuff.

I dont think winning or losing proves much about knowledge unless you are talking 1000s upon 1000s of games.

[danshan11]

the winning and losing of a few hundred games is unfortunately what most people use to determine a winner. That is super flawed and does not properly display the skill and or knowledge of a player

[AlgoLady]

I think alfa does even though I cant decipher much from it because he bets womens 3rd string volleyball and whatever stuff.

I dont think winning or losing proves much about knowledge unless you are talking 1000s upon 1000s of games.

Winning and losing does matter if your talking about it like you no for sure what wins and what don't otherwise your talking out of your ass imo. That's like a person bagging groceries telling the owner of the grocery store how to run his business the right way if your not doing it then it's just all talk.

[AlgoLady]

Danshan i was wondering if you have a post with all your plays because telling someone what works and what don't dont really make sense if your not out their doing it yourself.

[danshan11]

am I telling someone what works here or asking people what works and offering my opinion on that?

[AlgoLady]

am I telling someone what works here or asking people what works and offering my opinion on that?

Well from your logic this is a pointless thread because your telling me you need 100000's of games to determine a winner who in here is going to show you that they are a long term winner of 10000's bets no one is so pretty much anything anyone says you can just say yea but is it winning over 1000's upon 1000's of bets. So like I said this thread is really pointless from your logic cause if someone says they are a winner you will say yea but are you doing it over 100000's games if not then your not considered a winner.

[danshan11]

Winning and losing does matter if your talking about it like you no for sure what wins and what don't otherwise your talking out of your ass imo. That's like a person bagging groceries telling the owner of the grocery store how to run his business the right way if your not doing it then it's just all talk.

you are right but I am not here telling anyone how to do anything, I do have opinions on how you win and lose. I think people get easily tricked by 100 game record, 100 games is nothing, I now believe you need to have 20-30 plays a day to even have a chance at winning
I also believe that those 100
need to bankrolled effectively
need +line value on over 50% of them above margin
this is to even think about long term winning.

I have never had a losing basketball season coincidence great CLV
I have never had a winning baseball season very little +CLV
I dont bet football seriously more as a hobby and for football there is no CLV to track because there is not enough line movement on the NFL to really see line value