Am I playing myself, when it comes to sports betting?

[gamble4heisman]

This is a comment in regards to buying the 3 for -170. I am familiar with Ganch's calculator and the numbers and percentages and values therein. My question and comment concerns correlation. In football i see buying on or off the 3 as having more value as the expected total gets lower. i would expect such correlation in basketball as well as the higher the total the more variance you would expect.

I welcome comments and ideas....

[Justin7]

This is a comment in regards to buying the 3 for -170. I am familiar with Ganch's calculator and the numbers and percentages and values therein. My question and comment concerns correlation. In football i see buying on or off the 3 as having more value as the expected total gets lower. i would expect such correlation in basketball as well as the higher the total the more variance you would expect.

I welcome comments and ideas....

I did a study on push rates in NBA 4 years ago. While the study is dated, I had 20 years of games. You are correct - the push rate on sides and totals goes up as the total goes down.

[Data]

Is sports betting just for entertainment purposes or can you really win long term?

In the past, making money in sportsbetting was much simpler due to a lesser market efficiency and lesser costs of doing business. Many players lived off the "bonus whoring" or similar venues but those opportunities mostly dried out. So, if you know a player made good money doing this that tells you really nothing.

There is an important concept gone missing from this thread. One could have been playing a losing game yet be a long term winner. So, the answer to your question is yes, it is possible for anyone to become a long term winner even if the odds are against that (e.g. lottery winner).

The right question to ask is "can you turn the table and become a favorite to win, or, in terms of this forum, can you become an advantage player?"

More on this here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...s-betting.html

[DukeJohn]

In the past, making money in sportsbetting was much simpler due to a lesser market efficiency and lesser costs of doing business. Many players lived off the "bonus whoring" or similar venues but those opportunities mostly dried out. So, if you know a player made good money doing this that tells you really nothing.

There is an important concept gone missing from this thread. One could have been playing a losing game yet be a long term winner. So, the answer to your question is yes, it is possible for anyone to become a long term winner even if the odds are against that (e.g. lottery winner).

The right question to ask is "can you turn the table and become a favorite to win, or, in terms of this forum, can you become an advantage player?"

This is only an explanation for newer people who might not quite understand. What Data is saying is, if you deposited $1000 and received a $500 bonus versus a depositing $1000 with no bonus and you bet $100 to win $90 and your record was L - L - L - W - W

Taking the bonus your balance would be $1180 which would give you +1.80 units

Not taking the bonus your balance is $880 and would give you -1.2 units.

So your handicapping skills show you as not profitable, but your bonus makes it appear you are successful.

Although, as Data pointed out most of these opportunities have faded away and the larger your bankroll the less of an impact the bonuses will have...

BOL...

[jss]

Quote from BobbyDrake"As simple as I can be... We all should know that the soul purpose of the line created by the oddsmakers is to best represent public opinion"





I completely disagree! Lines are not created based on public opinion!!!! Lines are created to even out the games and generate betting on both sides. The line once made is moved by public opinion.

No, he is correct. Lines are created based on public opinion (or more correctly - the oddsmaker's guess at what public opinion will be).

[Art Vandeleigh]

How you react to the 1-9 or 2-13, or 3-16 runs etc. ( on 50/50 propositions wagers) which must happen from time to time even for the 54%+ guys, will tell a lot.

If you can shrug off these bad streaks and tell yourself it's just part of the cycle, that these bad runs must happen occasionally and not flinch when it does happen, you may have a chance.

Not so easy to do when you're in the middle of one, which everyone, even the 54%+ guys MUST go through. To say they don't go through these bad runs is like saying gravity doesn't exist where they live.

If you lose your confidence when you inevitably go bad, going pro is probably not for you.

[Unitage]

I wana pose the question of if it really is possible to go pro?
There are so few market inefficiencies now that over a very large sample size (5 seasons +) are there really cappers that are hitting at a 57%+ clip? Im talking many thousands of games where variance will catch up.

[Peep]

I wana pose the question of if it really is possible to go pro?

It is certainly possible to go semi-pro.

In this capacity you would know certain numbers, teams, situations better than the linesmaker, and would show a profit because of this. And it always helps to have a full time job and use your bets to suppliment your income.

[coldhardfacts]

I wana pose the question of if it really is possible to go pro?
There are so few market inefficiencies now that over a very large sample size (5 seasons +) are there really cappers that are hitting at a 57%+ clip? Im talking many thousands of games where variance will catch up.

Like anything else, it takes money to make money. You can make money by investing in money market accounts or CDs, but not enough to live off of unless you have a lot to begin with.

Sports betting is the same way. If you're sharp, you can get a good return on your investment. Whether or not you can live off those earnings depends on the size of that investment.

I have used sports betting to supplement my income for a number of years. From this and from working, I have built up a good enough bankroll so that I intend to quit my job at the end of the year and make sports betting my primary income source.

One more thing. As important as line shopping is, don't let anyone tell you it is anywhere near as important as handicapping. Trying to get the best-ever available line on every game is analogous to always buying stocks at their low point and selling them at their high point. CAN'T BE DONE.

[Pancho sanza]

I wana pose the question of if it really is possible to go pro?
There are so few market inefficiencies now that over a very large sample size (5 seasons +) are there really cappers that are hitting at a 57%+ clip? Im talking many thousands of games where variance will catch up.

who says you need 57 %?

You can make a ton at 54 %, even 53 % if you have lots of plays, line shop etc.

[DukeJohn]

I wana pose the question of if it really is possible to go pro?

Yes... Not only is it possible but you have significant tax advantages being a professional versus using it as supplemental income...

Also, I agree with what Coldhardfacts says. You will get a ton of advice on what will work and what doesn't, but it is usually by those who do not do this for a living. One important piece of advice, even the most ignorant can shine a light on the brilliance within yourself every now and then. Sometimes I think this forum is full of people too cerebral to realize this, but anyway, read and think outside the box and you may find your path to becoming pro.

[power100]

It is possible to be a pro at sports betting and make a living from it. The best way to start is with bonus whoring as it is very limited risk and there is decent money to be made at the start. From that arbing is a good place to move on to. It is low risk with good profits to be made with a decent bankroll. These betting activities will increase your knowledge while growing the bank at minimal risk.

Also as other posters have said it is a good idea to read the posts and gain information from the sharps on here.