CFB 2012 (also NFL)

2daBank · 12-08-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

gonna mull this one over for a bit. odd as it sounds, the one that i'm not as sold on is SEA/AZ. at the very least, i could see arguments for replacing that one with PHI/TB or ATL/CAR. decisions, decisions.

i like the over in sea,,obviously has a lot to do with line as i dont think this a shootout really but 35.5 seemed retarded low in a gm where i think sea gets 24+, figure zona d should give them a few shorter fields and they get the 13 or so ill need from them..maybe im missing something as this a typical 38 line and they hang a 35.5? no doubt sea gets after skelton but figure that could lead to some points, or he has time and makes a few plays vs a sea secondary going through some adjustments, think zona throw plenty out of 3 wr sets which should mean they see a guy that typically not in these spots for seachickens with one corner starting suspension, wanna say skelton and roberts had little chemistry but that may have been kolb (i forget), either way number so low, sea gonna hit a big play or 3 as zona secondary are risk takers, maybe they guess right and take one from wilson as well..

Madison · 12-08-12, 01:17 PM

Morning gentlemen,

Any thoughts on a Navy/Cinn 7 pt tease or ML parlay just for action?

Gotta take a closer look but Minn -6.5 CB at USC caught my eye. No real capping yet just sat down.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

Way to bounce back regardless of going down early, many cappers dig themselves in holes early and dont know how to get out....

just started looking at the nfl card myself, and leaning saints, texans, and redskins...

thanks, Smut. was really frustrated at end of September, almost packed it in. glad that i stayed conservative and grinded it out.

i like Texans, lean Saints (though a little concerned with their motivation). i think that Skins TT over could be worth a look too.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Morning gentlemen,

Any thoughts on a Navy/Cinn 7 pt tease or ML parlay just for action?

Gotta take a closer look but Minn -6.5 CB at USC caught my eye. No real capping yet just sat down.

oops, sorry, didn't see this. worked on bowls this morning but wasn't on SBR (both sets of bowl power ratings complete, just waiting for Navy to finalize). took a couple of great naps today. wife is having her big holiday party at our house tonight, so i'm going to lay off any capping (esp since she scheduled it for a night with no CFB). i do like Gophers team, for whatever that's worth. my serious hoops work will start in next week or so once i finish bowls.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i like the over in sea,,obviously has a lot to do with line as i dont think this a shootout really but 35.5 seemed retarded low in a gm where i think sea gets 24+, figure zona d should give them a few shorter fields and they get the 13 or so ill need from them..maybe im missing something as this a typical 38 line and they hang a 35.5? no doubt sea gets after skelton but figure that could lead to some points, or he has time and makes a few plays vs a sea secondary going through some adjustments, think zona throw plenty out of 3 wr sets which should mean they see a guy that typically not in these spots for seachickens with one corner starting suspension, wanna say skelton and roberts had little chemistry but that may have been kolb (i forget), either way number so low, sea gonna hit a big play or 3 as zona secondary are risk takers, maybe they guess right and take one from wilson as well..

yeah, i did see that you're on game over, which definitely doesn't make me want to include AZ/SEA under in teaser (esp when there are others that i like). part of the problem is that i could see Seahawks getting set up with some plum field position given AZ's QB struggles, and Seattle can roll at home. Cards defense is good, but i could see Seahawks putting up 30 here if turnovers and/or Cards QB ineptitude tees it up for them. i like Russell Wilson a lot. i think that the game finishes under 48, but i think that i may go with PHI/TB over, ATL/CAR over, BAL/WAS over or SD/PIT under as my 4th leg in the teaser. also see that you like STL/BUF over, gonna check that one out too.

Madison · 12-08-12, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

yeah, i did see that you're on game over, which definitely doesn't make me want to include AZ/SEA under in teaser (esp when there are others that i like). part of the problem is that i could see Seahawks getting set up with some plum field position given AZ's QB struggles, and Seattle can roll at home. Cards defense is good, but i could see Seahawks putting up 30 here if turnovers and/or Cards QB ineptitude tees it up for them. i like Russell Wilson a lot. i think that the game finishes under 48, but i think that i may go with PHI/TB over, ATL/CAR over, BAL/WAS over or SD/PIT under as my 4th leg in the teaser. also see that you like STL/BUF over, gonna check that one out too.

IMHO caution with the Buff over. Been killing hoops albeit small units.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 05:33 PM

final decision on the teaser, essentially tailing Madison

KC/CLE under 51'
NYJ/JAC under 51'
ATL/CAR over 34'
MIA/SF under 52'

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Madison

IMHO caution with the Buff over. Been killing hoops albeit small units.

nice! i can't wait to get started on hoops, but first things first and want to be deliberate with bowls. they are so much fun to cap.

kicking myself for not playing Army/Navy under.

Madison · 12-08-12, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

nice! i can't wait to get started on hoops, but first things first and want to be deliberate with bowls. they are so much fun to cap.

kicking myself for not playing Army/Navy under.

On VT and Under. Had Xav under couple nights ago and burnt by oT .5.

Madison · 12-08-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

final decision on the teaser, essentially tailing Madison

KC/CLE under 51'
NYJ/JAC under 51'
ATL/CAR over 34'
MIA/SF under 52'

Pretty solid IMO. May dupe to offset Sea but not totally sold on bankers take.

Madison · 12-08-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

final decision on the teaser, essentially tailing Madison

KC/CLE under 51'
NYJ/JAC under 51'
ATL/CAR over 34'
MIA/SF under 52'

Good thing is we're not crawling out of a hole as Maddy has made you a few $$ to date. Looking for payback on CFB bowls.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Good thing is we're not crawling out of a hole as Maddy has made you a few $$ to date. Looking for payback on CFB bowls.

it's a deal.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 05:56 PM

will be tempted to add Jets/Jags under once it's available at 38 reduced juice.

Madison · 12-08-12, 05:58 PM

VT/WV ... oh lord not 2 ot's on the under in a week. I think both would have cashed iH.

BiffTFinancial · 12-08-12, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Madison

VT/WV ... oh lord not 2 ot's on the under in a week. I think both would have cashed iH.

uh oh. sorry to hear that.

bummer of an ending to Army/Navy. was rooting for Army, or at least a better finish, there at the end. oh well.

people arriving for wife's dinner party. out for night, catch you tomorrow Madison.

Madison · 12-08-12, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

uh oh. sorry to hear that.

bummer of an ending to Army/Navy. was rooting for Army, or at least a better finish, there at the end. oh well.

people arriving for wife's dinner party. out for night, catch you tomorrow Madison.

Survived VT/WV. Correct call but o/u needs review full game vs first half as this was 2nd sweat in a week of sure under.

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 07:56 AM

Weather update for Chiefs TT under: will be 40s and rainy throughout day in Cleveland with wind 8-16 mph, maybe gusts a little stronger at the stadium given it being on lake. weather is as expected and should support the play.

Madison · 12-09-12, 08:09 AM

They were giving money away yesterday in CB. Drexel +6.5 vs Princeton ... really?

Just a caution about the Xmas break and consistency of play in CB. I'm off to a very nice start and going to be very careful. Would like to get into conference play with my current cushion.

GL today.

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 08:18 AM

adding

2* Jaguars team total under 17'
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209)

decided to go with Jags TT under rather than game under. the 1Q angles are from a guy that i follow on twitter and a discussion that he was having re: how good Bucs and Bengals have been 1Q relative to Eagles and Cowboys. we'll see. half-expecting for one to push, hence the three legs.

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)
2* Chiefs TT under 16
2* Bengals -3 (-120)
2* Jaguars TT under 17'
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209)

Smutbucket · 12-09-12, 08:32 AM

hmmm....thanks for info, gonna parlay the 2 1st Q's with the falcons.....

good luck today biffer, how depressed were you yesterday? Im still severly depressed, I can remeber opening weekend like it was just yesterday, u had that nice lil upset ohio pick over penn state.....sigh....next years gonna be my first year Im gonna have some serious money on the games and gonna be driving out to vegas too, only bout an hr and half from where Im living now, when I say serious I just mean 300-500 per unit to start, Im budgeting all my income accordingly, you have any expierence in vegas? what books to use? I just went there once on vacation a couple years back and just stayed at mgm and placed bets there...

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

hmmm....thanks for info, gonna parlay the 2 1st Q's with the falcons.....

good luck today biffer, how depressed were you yesterday? Im still severly depressed, I can remeber opening weekend like it was just yesterday, u had that nice lil upset ohio pick over penn state.....sigh....next years gonna be my first year Im gonna have some serious money on the games and gonna be driving out to vegas too, only bout an hr and half from where Im living now, when I say serious I just mean 300-500 per unit to start, Im budgeting all my income accordingly, you have any expierence in vegas? what books to use? I just went there once on vacation a couple years back and just stayed at mgm and placed bets there...

BOL to you too. yeah, i did get a little nostalgic watching Army/Navy. love college football season and gonna miss it. at the same time, bowls are a blast and i'm a little tired from the capping grind and i took a coupla hella naps yesterday. great season as a fan in general and as a Buckeye fan in particular. i will tell you this - my wife won't miss it. she had her big holiday dinner party and it went great and she didn't have to worry about some ill turn in a football game, so that was nice. just finished cleaning up, now it's officially done. phew.

have only been to Vegas a few times, so i would not be a great resource to ask. Pacocn goes to Vegas every so often and might be able to offer some suggestions. i believe that HoulihansTX lives in Vegas and he seems like a smart good guy who would have some good tips. i hope to go to Vegas sometime next year but 2014 (like February college hoops season) more like. if you're that close we'll definitely have to meet up.

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 11:42 AM

adding

1* Redskins team total over 24'

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)
2* Chiefs TT under 16
2* Bengals -3 (-120)
2* Jaguars TT under 17'
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209)
1* Redskins TT over 24'

BOL to all today.

Madison · 12-09-12, 03:17 PM

Never imagined Clv/KC would be a sweat.

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Never imagined Clv/KC would be a sweat.

no shit. work out well in the end though.

BiffTFinancial · 12-09-12, 04:29 PM

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)
2* Chiefs TT under 16 - WINNER
2* Bengals -3 (-120) - LOSER
2* Jaguars TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209) - LOSER
1* Redskins TT over 24' - WINNER

4-2 +4.6u start

Rick22 · 12-09-12, 04:55 PM

Nice job Biff - solid on the TT wagers.

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by Rick22

Nice job Biff - solid on the TT wagers.

thanks, Rick!

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 07:03 AM

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120) - WINNER
2* Chiefs TT under 16 - WINNER
2* Bengals -3 (-120) - LOSER
2* Jaguars TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209) - LOSER
1* Redskins TT over 24' - WINNER

5-2 +7.6u start

lean Texans and under for MNF, gonna think those over.

thanks for the call on on the big teaser, Madison, and congrats on your big 5u hit.

bane · 12-10-12, 07:31 AM

Tailed on parlay (Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk) and added a couple 1st halves on NCAAB. Was a nice hit. Thanks Biff and guys for all your hard work on NFL. Can't wait to see what you come up w/ for Bowls. Will be my 1st one wagering.

Madison · 12-10-12, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120) - WINNER
2* Chiefs TT under 16 - WINNER
2* Bengals -3 (-120) - LOSER
2* Jaguars TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209) - LOSER
1* Redskins TT over 24' - WINNER

5-2 +7.6u start

lean Texans and under for MNF, gonna think those over.

thanks for the call on on the big teaser, Madison, and congrats on your big 5u hit.

Thanks and great week yourself. Only downer was my stubborn minded refusal to budge on Sea under.

Pretty sure 14-5 , + 16.9 ... And no I'm not crawling through prior threads for pennies. FKM if I'm off a 1/10th of a unit here or there.

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 07:42 PM

adding

1* Matt Schaub completions over 22 (-120)

tailing snowball from Bank's thread. BOL.

Madison · 12-10-12, 08:15 PM

Not putting my $$ behind it but feeling NE could surprise tonight.

Anyone watching Welker's #'s? About to surpass Rice in key categories.

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 08:22 PM

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120) - WINNER
2* Chiefs TT under 16 - WINNER
2* Bengals -3 (-120) - LOSER
2* Jaguars TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Parlay: Stillers ML + Bucs 1Q ML + Bengals 1Q ML (+209) - LOSER
1* Redskins TT over 24' - WINNER
1* Matt Schaub completions over 22 (-120)

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Not putting my $$ behind it but feeling NE could surprise tonight.

Anyone watching Welker's #'s? About to surpass Rice in key categories.

just home from bar. i was leaning Texans and under all day, but line move says i'm wrong on the side. war Schaub, UVA alum.

will have to check out Welkers numbers.

BiffTFinancial · 12-10-12, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by bane

Tailed on parlay (Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk) and added a couple 1st halves on NCAAB. Was a nice hit. Thanks Biff and guys for all your hard work on NFL. Can't wait to see what you come up w/ for Bowls. Will be my 1st one wagering.

let's get em, bane. bowls are the best part of the capping year in my mind. i have finalized my power rankings, just have to finish capping the games. keep moving my schedule back because been going out a lot, but will have most of all CFB pools done by Thursday night at latest (good chunk Tuesday) and will book about half my bowl picks before weekend probably. gotta wait out the coaching carousel for sides....