Dexter - 2012/2013 NCAAF Plays

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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #771
    Thursday 1/3:

    Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

    (4u) Kansas St +9
    Comment
    • suicidekings
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-23-09
      • 9962

      #772
      Jeremy Hill is unreal. He's going to be the best RB in the SEC next season.
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #773
        Originally posted by suicidekings
        Jeremy Hill is unreal. He's going to be the best RB in the SEC next season.
        Whoever was calling plays tonight for LSU was unreal - that last drive was comical. Not that it mattered for us, but he actually threw the ball 3 times in a row with hamberger....now i hope they lose outright.
        Comment
        • oBaMa_MaNiA
          SBR MVP
          • 01-20-09
          • 1067

          #774
          love Wisconsin tomorrow
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #775
            Saturday 1/5:

            BBVA Compass Bowl

            (4u) Pittsburgh +4
            (2u) Under Pitt/Ole Miss 52
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #776
              Originally posted by oBaMa_MaNiA
              love Wisconsin tomorrow
              i do as well now - love the barry alvarez angle.

              tomorrows card is final and in post 756:

              Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
              Comment
              • Dexter
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-24-08
                • 25829

                #777
                Originally posted by Dexter
                Sunday 1/6:

                BBVA Compass Bowl

                (2u) Kent St +4
                (2u) Kent St +4 (4u total)
                (2u) Over Kent St/Arkansas St 61
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #778
                  Run every down from here on out. Lets not make the same mistake LSU did last night. Overpower these MAC boyz.....
                  Comment
                  • mlb
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-04-09
                    • 10509

                    #779
                    Nice little day there dexter!
                    Comment
                    • oBaMa_MaNiA
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-20-09
                      • 1067

                      #780
                      need ya opinion dex...

                      have a 7 team paralay $60 to win $5750

                      already hit 5 of them and remaining games are Florida -13.5 and Texas A&M -4.5

                      how should I approach it so I get some money?
                      Comment
                      • fly fisher
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-25-10
                        • 2587

                        #781
                        Originally posted by Dexter
                        Thursday 1/3:

                        Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

                        (4u) Kansas St +9
                        Dex, I was just wondering why you like this one. I think this game would be a shootout and the winner whoever it is winning by less than a touchdown. I figured Oregon would get the win with them being in AZ with perfect weather conditions, but this tells me you see KSt losing a close one or winning outright. Just wondering what your thinking is on this one.

                        I already played the over 76 for 2.5u thinking at worse this will be a 35-42 pt game, any thoughts on this total? I just hope this is an exciting and fun game to watch, I was bored to death watching Wisconsin and Stanford last night. My wife even complained about what a boring game, "run up the middle, run up the middle, this kind of football sucks." I laughed.
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #782
                          Originally posted by oBaMa_MaNiA
                          need ya opinion dex...

                          have a 7 team paralay $60 to win $5750

                          already hit 5 of them and remaining games are Florida -13.5 and Texas A&M -4.5

                          how should I approach it so I get some money?
                          Sk is good with this type of advice. I don't play exotics.

                          Fly. Will post thoughts later.
                          Comment
                          • iceman8847
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-16-08
                            • 526

                            #783
                            Dex,I thought you would be on Florida for more more than 3 units Florida beat Florida state this year by 11 pts and Florida state beat NIU by 21pts yesterday and we know NIU is a far better team then Louisville. Florida is going to win this game by 21or more. I hope
                            Comment
                            • suicidekings
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-23-09
                              • 9962

                              #784
                              Originally posted by oBaMa_MaNiA
                              need ya opinion dex... have a 7 team paralay $60 to win $5750 already hit 5 of them and remaining games are Florida -13.5 and Texas A&M -4.5 how should I approach it so I get some money?
                              Originally posted by Dexter
                              Sk is good with this type of advice. I don't play exotics. Fly. Will post thoughts later.
                              How much capital do you have and how much are you comfortable getting out of it? It's paying out at almost 100-1, so you could really make a decent sized play on Louisville +14.5 (say, $825 to win $750), and still return 12.5-1 on the original investment if Louisville covers, plus the middle opportunity around 14. You're then still holding the equivalent to a $885 to win $5750 on Texas A&M -4.5 (+650) that you could hedge evenly with OU +4.5 (-110), risking $3475 to win $3150. (it's +3.5 now, but will probably move back closer to +4/+4.5. You might have to pay some extra juice on it). You're still going to clear no less than $2000 on the series of bets, and potentially more like $4000 on TAMU if you settled for a modest hedge on Louisville and Oklahoma.

                              I would play to win a few hundred on Louisville +14.5 just as security regardless and then re-assess what you want to do on Friday. No sense in relying on the assumption of a team's effort to cover a big spread with such a huge ticket in your hand. Amounts variable depending on how much you like your original bets, but you get the idea.

                              And great job on the parlay, man.


                              Quick hedge spreadsheet: hedge(1).xlsx

                              It's exported from Google Docs, and I can't actually check it in Excel on this laptop. Hopefully that works.
                              Comment
                              • oBaMa_MaNiA
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-20-09
                                • 1067

                                #785
                                I have enough capital to risk everything but would rather get a guaranteed payout irregardless of results as opposed to maximum 5750 total.

                                So maybe start off with $900-1000 on Louisville and then go from there. Only issue is my book doesn't allow me to buy points in college football.

                                and the parlay is all thanks to Dex's college football picks!
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #786
                                  Originally posted by iceman8847
                                  Dex,I thought you would be on Florida for more more than 3 units Florida beat Florida state this year by 11 pts and Florida state beat NIU by 21pts yesterday and we know NIU is a far better team then Louisville. Florida is going to win this game by 21or more. I hope
                                  i never look at games like who beat who...thats irrelevant to me. things change, and so do teams. 3u is a pretty good sized bet - just feel like louiville's defense will give florida some problems
                                  Comment
                                  • Dexter
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-24-08
                                    • 25829

                                    #787
                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                    (2u) Louisville +14_I still feel confident in Florida but its not a 5x play relative to other selections i have. The Big East was very close to being 3-0 if not for Rutgers late collapse. Louisville has a good defense which could keep them in the game, however i feel bridgewater will make some turnovers to help florida cover the large number. The strength of schedule for these 2 teams are not even close but i am considering what the Big East has done so far (still keeping in mind that duke and w. virginia have horrid defenses). Since i was able to get 14 now, i think its smart to hedge a little and hope for the game to land on a common number like 14. If a 13 point win happens i also turn a small profit rather then push.

                                    Net Play: 3x Florida -13
                                    (1u) Under Florida/Louisville 48 - public is heavy on the over and i have to side with my initial instinct on the low after the total jumped this much. i see something like a 27-13 type win for the gators.
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #788
                                      Originally posted by oBaMa_MaNiA
                                      I have enough capital to risk everything but would rather get a guaranteed payout irregardless of results as opposed to maximum 5750 total. So maybe start off with $900-1000 on Louisville and then go from there. Only issue is my book doesn't allow me to buy points in college football. and the parlay is all thanks to Dex's college football picks!
                                      I think that's what I would do. If you're feeling a little riskier, you could always split that amount between 2 plays, with the majority on the straight play and a smaller amount on a parlay of LOU+14/TAMU-3.5, so if Louisville does manage to cover, you have a little something on TAMU at a better line than you already have. Depends on how many moving parts you want to be thinking about at a time.
                                      Comment
                                      • suicidekings
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-23-09
                                        • 9962

                                        #789
                                        Originally posted by Dexter
                                        (1u) Under Florida/Louisville 48 - public is heavy on the over and i have to side with my initial instinct on the low after the total jumped this much. i see something like a 27-13 type win for the gators.
                                        I loved the Over 45 originally, but the number jumping to 48 is just too much. Agreed.
                                        Comment
                                        • t-wizzle
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-18-09
                                          • 38099

                                          #790
                                          I like Florida tonight but they are not the kind of team that blows teams out. It will be a grind and you'll have to hope the defense completely shuts down Louisville. Good luck dex.
                                          Comment
                                          • oBaMa_MaNiA
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-20-09
                                            • 1067

                                            #791
                                            Originally posted by suicidekings
                                            I think that's what I would do. If you're feeling a little riskier, you could always split that amount between 2 plays, with the majority on the straight play and a smaller amount on a parlay of LOU+14/TAMU-3.5, so if Louisville does manage to cover, you have a little something on TAMU at a better line than you already have. Depends on how many moving parts you want to be thinking about at a time.
                                            awesome we'll see how it goes. my book had Louisville at +15 now so booked it for 892, hopefully it's a 14/15 pt ball game as a best result!
                                            Comment
                                            • Tony Truong
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 08-23-12
                                              • 760

                                              #792
                                              Originally posted by Dexter
                                              (2u) Louisville +14_I still feel confident in Florida but its not a 5x play relative to other selections i have. The Big East was very close to being 3-0 if not for Rutgers late collapse. Louisville has a good defense which could keep them in the game, however i feel bridgewater will make some turnovers to help florida cover the large number. The strength of schedule for these 2 teams are not even close but i am considering what the Big East has done so far (still keeping in mind that duke and w. virginia have horrid defenses). Since i was able to get 14 now, i think its smart to hedge a little and hope for the game to land on a common number like 14. If a 13 point win happens i also turn a small profit rather then push.

                                              Net Play: 3x Florida
                                              Good Pick . Good luck Dexter .
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #793
                                                Originally posted by fly fisher
                                                Dex, I was just wondering why you like this one. I think this game would be a shootout and the winner whoever it is winning by less than a touchdown. I figured Oregon would get the win with them being in AZ with perfect weather conditions, but this tells me you see KSt losing a close one or winning outright. Just wondering what your thinking is on this one.

                                                I already played the over 76 for 2.5u thinking at worse this will be a 35-42 pt game, any thoughts on this total? I just hope this is an exciting and fun game to watch, I was bored to death watching Wisconsin and Stanford last night. My wife even complained about what a boring game, "run up the middle, run up the middle, this kind of football sucks." I laughed.
                                                the long layoff scares me a little bit for the over, and i felt pretty confident under money would come in and it has. i think i will book a play on over at 73.5 now..

                                                as for the side, i was going back and forth since the game was announced and found it telling that the # was sitting at 9 (just under a major key # of 10)....i basically said to myself, that if it goes up over 10 i would play oregon and if it stays under 10 at that odd # of 9 i would play k. state. its not only stayed at 9, but gone down to 8 with 65% of the public on oregon. oregon hasnt exactly blown teams out of the water in bowl games under kelly as they do vs the pac 10.
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #794
                                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                                  Thursday 1/3:

                                                  Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

                                                  (4u) Kansas St +9
                                                  (2u) Over Oregon/K. State 73.5
                                                  (2u) Over Oregon/K. State 74
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dexter
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                    • 25829

                                                    #795
                                                    (2u) Florida -9.5 (2nd Half)

                                                    Had a friend book this for me - Florida has been a 2nd half team all year and that TD to end the half was a huge momentum play.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • fly fisher
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-25-10
                                                      • 2587

                                                      #796
                                                      glad to see you took it, i had already taken it and just saw that you had. Go Fla score big and score often
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #797
                                                        brilliant

                                                        -5u YTD now.....not the bowl season i had envisioned...

                                                        how good does pitt look now vs miss...(big east vs sec).....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fly fisher
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-25-10
                                                          • 2587

                                                          #798
                                                          unbelievable, how does the #4 team get their a$$ thoroughly kicked by the #22 team in the sugar bowl? Pathetic.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • suicidekings
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-23-09
                                                            • 9962

                                                            #799
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                                            brilliant

                                                            -5u YTD now.....not the bowl season i had envisioned...

                                                            how good does pitt look now vs miss...(big east vs sec).....
                                                            I still think Ole Miss wins that game. I think they've been undervalued all year, and are better than their 6-6 record shows. Four of those losses came to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia, and overall, Football Outsiders has them playing the 20th toughest schedule (#2 via Phil Steele).
                                                            Comment
                                                            • No coincidences
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-18-10
                                                              • 76300

                                                              #800
                                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                              I still think Ole Miss wins that game. I think they've been undervalued all year, and are better than their 6-6 record shows. Four of those losses came to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia, and overall, Football Outsiders has them playing the 20th toughest schedule (#2 via Phil Steele).
                                                              Couldn't agree more personally.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • suicidekings
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 03-23-09
                                                                • 9962

                                                                #801
                                                                Yet another game where a good team is undone by very odd playcalling. The early trust in Driskell passing leading to the INT, the foolish onside kick to start the 2H instead of forcing Louisville to work a long field, etc. Why play the whole season using a ball control strategy and then abandon what they're comfortable with in the bowl games?

                                                                I actually think Muschamp needs to hire a good OC and take the playcalling out of his hands. He's a great defensive coordinator, but he just doesn't have it for running an offense.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #802
                                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings

                                                                  I still think Ole Miss wins that game. I think they've been undervalued all year, and are better than their 6-6 record shows. Four of those losses came to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia, and overall, Football Outsiders has them playing the 20th toughest schedule (#2 via Phil Steele).
                                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences

                                                                  Couldn't agree more personally.
                                                                  not for me - this was the only time i went against the SEC. I am locked on Pitt +4 for 4u. their defense has been very strong all year but particularly since the louisville game mid-season. their offense has created the least amount of turnovers per game in the nation (along with ohio who already performed well) and i feel sunseri has a huge edge over bo wallace (15 INT's - thats horrible) where as sunseri has a 19/2 TD/INT ratio. ole miss is poor vs the pass so i expect sunseri to take advantage of that weakness and do some damage through the air. i think the strength of schedule argument can start to have some weaknesses when you consider how the SEC has faired this postseason (3-3 su) while the Big East has once again come to play and to me looks like an underrated conference.

                                                                  the public is on the sec as usual at around 60%, yet the line has moved from 4 to 3 at some shops. trust me - it took a lot for me to fade the sec, but i like pitt in this spot for having the better defense and huge edge at qb. i dont even need to win straight up - a close game and i likely cash.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #803
                                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                    the public is on the sec as usual at around 60%, yet the line has moved from 4 to 3 at some shops. trust me - it took a lot for me to fade the sec, but i like pitt in this spot for having the better defense and huge edge at qb. i dont even need to win straight up - a close game and i likely cash.
                                                                    Did it open at 4 though? I thought it was 2.

                                                                    Sunseri might have pretty numbers, but I still don't trust that kid. At all. He never makes the right pass/play at the right time.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #804
                                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                      Did it open at 4 though? I thought it was 2.

                                                                      Sunseri might have pretty numbers, but I still don't trust that kid. At all. He never makes the right pass/play at the right time.
                                                                      we look at totally different sources for openers....2 is not something i saw anywhere....3.5 and 3 are openers i saw. 4 it got up to at a few places but since dropped...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • No coincidences
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                                        • 76300

                                                                        #805
                                                                        Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                        we look at totally different sources for openers....2 is not something i saw anywhere....3.5 and 3 are openers i saw. 4 it got up to at a few places but since dropped...
                                                                        -2 at 5Dimes I believe.
                                                                        Comment
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