Dexter - 2012/2013 NCAAF Plays

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  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #666
    Originally posted by Dexter
    (3u) Air Force -130
    (2u) Over Air Force/Rice 61.5

    Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

    (4u) Navy +14
    (2u) Under Arizona St/Navy 53.5
    Agreed 100% on the sides. I'm staying off the totals, but I lean the same way on both as well.
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #667
      Originally posted by suicidekings
      Agreed 100% on the sides. I'm staying off the totals, but I lean the same way on both as well.
      great - havent looked at your post yet....after watching a finesse team like ttech get bullied all over the field tonight, give me the military kids tomorrow in both games...zona st is a program that consistently gets waxed in bowl games - no way i can lay 14 after watching tonights game..
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #668
        Originally posted by mlb
        My apologies... I had no business coming in asking that with the tech game still going on .. thanks for ur thoughts on the game

        Ur too good not to bust out of this funk your in with most sports besides college bball.

        I went 3-0 in all my pools today but I ended up switching and taking tech when I saw u were pretty confident.. all good.. but u were right... minney wanted it more and it was obvious... oh well.. move on to the next.. good luck tomorrow and u of anyone know to put today behind you
        i put so much stock in the articles i read about how pissed the seniors were that tuberville left, and they were going to take it out on minny....sorry you switched.....thanks mlb..
        Comment
        • Vinnie Paz
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-27-12
          • 12177

          #669
          Dex I understand you're bent, but if you get a minute please elaborate on the Syracuse pick. I personally just like th over but if I get an insightful word or 2 from you I'll give em a stab....thnx in advance
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #670
            Originally posted by suicidekings
            Sidenote: I don't know if you ever use Phil Steele's site, but these game summaries are an outstanding at-a-glance resource.

            https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/TeamP...texastech.html
            i keep trying to get into the bowl guide, but it keeps buffering/loading all night. is that the section you like? other historical data i get from various sources....
            Comment
            • suicidekings
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-23-09
              • 9962

              #671
              Originally posted by Dexter
              i keep trying to get into the bowl guide, but it keeps buffering/loading all night. is that the section you like? other historical data i get from various sources....
              The team pages are what I look at the most. As a quick reference guide for high and low points on offense/defense it's a pretty solid resource. My primary resource is still footballoutsiders.com for advanced stats, but this one offers more of a big-picture.
              Comment
              • Dexter
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-24-08
                • 25829

                #672
                Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                Dex I understand you're bent, but if you get a minute please elaborate on the Syracuse pick. I personally just like th over but if I get an insightful word or 2 from you I'll give em a stab....thnx in advance
                im going to take the over as well for at least 2-3u, but feel it will keep going down with the bad weather. as long as the wind isnt too bad, im fine with some snow....

                gino smith has historically struggled with syracuse. syracuse has the much better defense and a very hot/nfl caliber qb with a strong arm in nassib. i think west virginia's defense is horrific and i would rather back a lesser talented offense with a better defense in a home field atmosphere. syracuse is NY's football team, and this game is being played in the bronx. i have to also wonder if WV might be slightly disappointed after their great start to not end up in a BCS game. the Big12 (i realize wv is new to the conf) is historically (since 1985) one of the worst ATS conferences in Bowl games (40% ATS) while the Big East is one of the best (55%).
                public all over wv around 70% and the money just isnt showing up for them so far. wv bad favorites this year and cuse has been solid dogs. i see a close game and a fg either way obviously cashes my tickets...
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #673
                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                  The team pages are what I look at the most. As a quick reference guide for high and low points on offense/defense it's a pretty solid resource. My primary resource is still footballoutsiders.com for advanced stats, but this one offers more of a big-picture.
                  do you pay attention to this UPS Index? TTech had one of the worst among bowl teams, and obviously that paid off tonight. Michigan St also right there on the bad end...
                  Comment
                  • suicidekings
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-23-09
                    • 9962

                    #674
                    Originally posted by Dexter
                    do you pay attention to this UPS Index? TTech had one of the worst among bowl teams, and obviously that paid off tonight. Michigan St also right there on the bad end...
                    Never looked at it before, however it seems like the individual teams' stats have not been adjusted for schedule. NIU is the 3rd best team overall? FSU is a better defensive team than Alabama/Florida/Notre Dame? Something is off there.

                    I consider this the best resource in college football for ranking teams: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei, along with the S&P rankings for Offense/Defense
                    Comment
                    • Vinnie Paz
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 03-27-12
                      • 12177

                      #675
                      ^^^^either you guys mess with those sagarin ratings or they just a waste??
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #676
                        Originally posted by suicidekings
                        Never looked at it before, however it seems like the individual teams' stats have not been adjusted for schedule. NIU is the 3rd best team overall? FSU is a better defensive team than Alabama/Florida/Notre Dame? Something is off there.

                        I consider this the best resource in college football for ranking teams: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
                        where are you seeing the overall UPS Index rankings? I just have a few articles printed that reference a couple of teams.
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #677
                          here is the kind of important information that wont have the headlines for tomorrow.....but this is where football games are won/lost - trenches..

                          Texas will be without its best offensive lineman in left guard Trey Hopkins, who suffered a stress fracture in his lower right leg in the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
                          Comment
                          • suicidekings
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-23-09
                            • 9962

                            #678
                            Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                            ^^^^either you guys mess with those sagarin ratings or they just a waste??
                            I don't like them as I don't believe you can handicap a matchup by reducing a team to a single number. Certain offensive and defensive traits can provide a HUGE advantage in a particular matchup.
                            Comment
                            • suicidekings
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-23-09
                              • 9962

                              #679
                              Originally posted by Dexter
                              where are you seeing the overall UPS Index rankings? I just have a few articles printed that reference a couple of teams.
                              Comment
                              • Dexter
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-24-08
                                • 25829

                                #680
                                has anyone else read that Texas is back in a bowl for the 1st time since 2006? this makes no sense as i see them with bowl games in 09,10 and 11...
                                Comment
                                • suicidekings
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-23-09
                                  • 9962

                                  #681
                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                  has anyone else read that Texas is back in a bowl for the 1st time since 2006? this makes no sense as i see them with bowl games in 09,10 and 11...
                                  Maybe they mean playing in-state? Was it a publication from Texas? Alamo is in San Antonio, but they've been playing elsewhere in the last few years.
                                  Comment
                                  • Dexter
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-24-08
                                    • 25829

                                    #682
                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                    Maybe they mean playing in-state? Was it a publication from Texas? Alamo is in San Antonio, but they've been playing elsewhere in the last few years.
                                    maybe thats it...i think its something i printed from covers a few weeks ago.
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #683
                                      Originally posted by Dexter
                                      here is the kind of important information that wont have the headlines for tomorrow.....but this is where football games are won/lost - trenches..

                                      Texas will be without its best offensive lineman in left guard Trey Hopkins, who suffered a stress fracture in his lower right leg in the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
                                      On that note, Air Force is getting a bunch of players back tomorrow from injury. They were really banged up by the end of the season, but they've had a lot of time to rest up.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #684
                                        Originally posted by suicidekings
                                        Looking at tomorrow. Michigan State is my favourite play on the board, along with Syracuse, WVU/SYR Over, and Oregon State.

                                        The game that keeps catching my eye is Navy/ASU. I have no respect for ASU. Wins against California, Colorado, Washington State, Illinois, and Northern Arizona don't really do it for me, and they got gashed for 200+ yards on the ground five times this year. I just keep thinking back to the Oregon game and how awful they were in run defense (they gave up 406 yards on the ground to the Ducks), and I have a really hard time buying them laying -14 against a triple option offense that will largely negate their good pass rush and attack them where they're weak. Navy may not be a powerhouse, but they stack up with ASU pretty well. Getting +14 is a big cushion on a team that should win TOP by playing keepaway.

                                        I think they're actually live to win this game.
                                        very nice....i was starting to second guess myself with syracuse (that tends to happen when you lose 7 sides in a row) but glad to see you on it with the over....have to look into msu/tcu deeper....may wait to see how the big 12 does in the earlier games
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #685
                                          Originally posted by Dexter
                                          tomorrows fades are being updated in Post 653 as i book...
                                          fyi....
                                          Comment
                                          • mlb
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-04-09
                                            • 10509

                                            #686
                                            Good luck on your big weekend dexter!
                                            Comment
                                            • Donkeys2012
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-11-12
                                              • 2771

                                              #687
                                              This Air Force Rice game is fukkin garbage 12 homeless guys off the street could play better on offense then these clowns
                                              Comment
                                              • suicidekings
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 9962

                                                #688
                                                This defense is a surprise...
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #689
                                                  no bitching and whining today - if im meant to get raped again then so be it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Donkeys2012
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-11-12
                                                    • 2771

                                                    #690
                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                    no bitching and whining today - if im meant to get raped again then so be it.
                                                    air force is garbage
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #691
                                                      Originally posted by Donkeys2012
                                                      air force is garbage
                                                      got it...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #692
                                                        (4u) Over W. Virginia/Syracuse 70
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Donkeys2012
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-11-12
                                                          • 2771

                                                          #693
                                                          Originally posted by Dexter
                                                          (4u) Over W. Virginia/Syracuse 70

                                                          Like that one a lot. Wish I had just waited and bet that instead of this garbage over with these two shit teams
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #694
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                                            Saturday 12/29:

                                                            Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

                                                            (1u) Rice +1

                                                            New Era Pinstripe Bowl

                                                            (5u) Syracuse +4.5

                                                            Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

                                                            (1u) Under TCU/Michigan St 41
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                                            Valero Alamo Bowl

                                                            (3u) Oregon St -3
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter

                                                            (3u) Air Force -130
                                                            (2u) Over Air Force/Rice 61.5

                                                            Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

                                                            (4u) Navy +14
                                                            (2u) Under Arizona St/Navy 53.5
                                                            ----------------------------------
                                                            (2u) Syracuse +4 (7u total)
                                                            ----------------------------------
                                                            (2u) Over Oregon St/Texas 57
                                                            ----------------------------------
                                                            (3u) Michigan St +2.5
                                                            (2u) Under MSU/TCU 40.5 (3u total)
                                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                                            (4u) Over W. Virginia/Syracuse 70
                                                            Organized the card for today since it was scattered on several pages...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suicidekings
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                              • 9962

                                                              #695
                                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                              This defense is a surprise...
                                                              Tempo starting to pick up. Air Force is really starting to impose their will on the Rice D. And their young QB completed a pass!

                                                              McHargue looks like he's not coming back today.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Donkeys2012
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-11-12
                                                                • 2771

                                                                #696
                                                                Unreal first and goal at the one and these fukking assholes fumble again. A TD there and we were back in good shape.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #697
                                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                  Tempo starting to pick up. Air Force is really starting to impose their will on the Rice D. And their young QB completed a pass!

                                                                  McHargue looks like he's not coming back today.
                                                                  you must have liked the ending there...i was rooting for a TD with the over, but to be honest - i just want to win a damn side already...so i'll take it.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • suicidekings
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 03-23-09
                                                                    • 9962

                                                                    #698
                                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                    you must have liked the ending there...i was rooting for a TD with the over, but to be honest - i just want to win a damn side already...so i'll take it.
                                                                    I did. Although admittedly, I was expecting this game to be something like 24-17 at the half. Makes sense that both teams would have worked on their defense in the last month as that's where they were both weakest. I definitely love what I've seen so far from Pearson. The young kid taking charge when given the chance and the Rice defense already starting to show cracks when Air Force went uptempo.

                                                                    Also, re: WVU-SYR, I'm pretty stoked to watch this game. The snow is interesting though. Have you ever looked back into the effect of snow on bowl games? It looks like it's not actually that cold there, so I kind of think there's going to be players falling down everywhere once the field starts getting chewed up.

                                                                    In the NFL, games happening after Nov 1 lend a HUGE advantage to teams that are used to colder weather vs dome/warm weather teams. Coming out of the Carrier dome, I wonder how Syracuse will be on turf? I would think that WVU will be a lot more comfortable in cold snowy weather. Generally it's tougher to defend in snow than play offense (at least in passing) so I think the over is still the right side of the total, but I'm starting to second guess the side here.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #699
                                                                      i have not looked up snow in bowl games...wouldnt even know where to look that up.....its not cold out, and no snow yet....just rain
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • iceman8847
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 12-16-08
                                                                        • 526

                                                                        #700
                                                                        DEX ,Didn't know you jumped on Rice I wished I would of saw that I am taken a beating on Air Force man do they suck .good for you
                                                                        Comment
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