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soonerbs,
excellent analysis...normally I live by that rule, actually not betting road favs in general, although I'm making an exception with Penn St. this week...
xyz.
you are right, soonerbs is an excellent capper...if you look hard enough you can find his plays out there...
kasey,
I gave my opinion on the ASU vs. Cal game earlier in this thread, you just have to look for it...the Miami vs. FSU game is a toss-up in my opinion, no lean either way...the South Carolina vs. Ole Miss game just baffles me...at first glance you would think Ole Miss is the play, but they are off a huge upset vs. Florida and are playing a well coached, defensive club in South Carolina...no play for me as well...Comment -
How in god's damn can you possibly cap a college football game in May???? seems pretty unrealistic/silly if you ask meComment -
smitch,
that is a good point...
soonerbs,
funny that you mentioned that about big road dogs, because I've really come to that realization too...I think especially dogs of 17 or more fall into this category...good stuff...Comment -
With ya on Vandy and Iowa. I think both may win outright. Iowa's home loss gives us a ton of value. They fall under the DD Away Fav. rule, but what do you think about Florida -24.5 and Oklahoma -27? I've made a small fortune betting against Ark. TY, and Oklahoma will probably have more fans at Baylor than Baylor?"You Can't Outfox a Fox" -Dapper Capper
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Oh, and BYU -28--seems like anopther game where the road team will have more fan support"You Can't Outfox a Fox" -Dapper Capper
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pete,
glad to hear we will be on those two games together...I'm not sure I'd lay almost four touchdowns with OU vs. a pesky Baylor squad the week before the Red River Rivalry game, but I couldn't play Baylor either...I'd have a tough time playing Florida with their offense seem to be stuck in second gear, but no way in heck I play Arkansas...I've yet to see a favorite cover on Thursday night, so I couldn't play BYU, but I didn't even consider Utah St. for one second...Comment -
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sparticus,
you've been around the block a couple of times...very evident...
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LARGE/BIG BLOCKS i might add, lol, gl, i like ok.st. also & kind of think vandy gets it done, keep up the good work you are a very sharp capper & a great source for some of the newbies to watch & respect.Comment -
very interesting sparticus, you taken advantage of that this year so far?
pags, thanks for the pick so far, wait in anticipation for your last!
Already down on OK ST, Penn St, Iowa, and Iowa St, just waiting to see if the line moves at all on the others, not really expecting it to.
Congrats on a great last weekend, all of the picks looked stellar so I enjoyed going 5-2 with you. I can't just bet anything instantly when I see, but after I check out the games you've suggested it almost always seems so much clearer the value is in your picks. Best of luck this week and for the rest of the season!Comment -
Andrewsurf, i always refer to that as part of my selection for weekday games but no i haven't played all of them but have played about 60% of them, gl.Comment -
PLAY NUMBER SEVEN:
Tulsa -14 (-103) for 3 unitsComment -
andrew,
thank you very much...glad you are able to do the research on your own though too...
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Never seen so much chalk from you before pags. Makes me feel like we're in for a good weekend. I'm a little disappointed I don't get to see Locker play in person, that kid is a great athlete. All the better as Arizona wins 45-13.Comment -
pags, Tulsa is now at -15.5. Do you still like it at that line?Comment -
Hey buddy, let's get these this week.
I was wanting to know your opinion on the Uconn/UNC game?
Just messing with you, I think that Okie State game is a good alternative. I hope we do well this week, feeling good about this card. Nice that we were able to jump on these, got some good early numbers for the most part. Iowa getting hammered down now, and money coming in on Penn State and Arizona, and see the money is starting to roll in on Tulsa, I think that early money that came in on Rice was wrong, we will find out on Saturday. Will be interested to talk to you to see any observations you saw from games the last weekend. Feel like our discussions are working well.Comment -
Nice Looking card this week , pags.
Iowa might be a solid 7 by game time.Comment -
myers,
good to have you on board bud...
shrax,
like you mentioned, if I bet a favorite I really have to like the play...
lout,
obviously I would have preferred for you to have -14, but I do think Tulsa is a good play up to -16.5...
sirwinzalot,
thank you for all of your help this season and last...you are a huge part of the success we have had together...keep up the good work my friend...
clowncar,
I appreciate that very much...yeah, it was announced that Iowa's RB Greene will be fully healthy for the game in the last twenty-four hours...it should be a good game...Comment -
Tell me, does this figure seem unrealistic and silly to you as well?
2008-2009 College Football: 55-33-1 +83.5 UNITS
That record is all true and documented and Pags will vouch for it. I only post it to tell you this -- I credit it all to handicapping every team and game from April to August. AND, before you "pooh pooh" that, realize that Pags does the same thing with his game tapes and research. I found out long ago that if you want to win money at this recreation we all love, you have to put in the hours. I don't mind it though because I love the sport. I also don't claim to know everything about handicapping college football, I'm still learning.
Peace, dude . . . . .
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soonerbs,
I believe that dbldown's comment was directed at someone else besides me but I could be wrong...regardless, your point is well taken...you are having a great season, keep up the great capping brother...Comment -
pags,
Hey bro if Tulsa gets up to 17 which I dont think it will, we may be butting heads on 1 game this week. For some reason my gut just tells me to go with Rice. I dont know what it is, I'm trying to learn more what the players are thinking about this game because my cousin used to play football for them. Even if that happens, theres definitely still room to meet in the middle.. Best of luck to you this week and thanks for the support.
"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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Sorry to be a broken record pags, but I still think it would be helpful to have all of your picks in one place/post!Comment -
pags,
Why all the edits with your plays?
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pags,
first of your doing a nice job every week, keep it up.
But there is one play I dont really like, its the AZ game, here are my thoughts:
Washington always plays well in Arizona
only 3-14 at home since Mike took the job
they had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, and they thought Locker would start the game (he had a monster game last year in sea), now he is out (Fouch will start) and the players already have this game in as a win
so this 3 things combined made me think, and I'm probably staying away from the game (hey I just can bet against you)
and the second thing I wanted to ask you, what do you think about my picks this week (I would appreciate any comment):
Minn -7
Florida -25
ND -7
Miami -2,5
Michigan -2,5
Kentucky +16,5
Conn +7
thxComment -
Like some of your picks....im on OK St and Penn St.
Thanks for your insight and help last week w/ games, followed you on few of them, had a good week
Good luck this week
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toby,
I understand...thanks for your insight...
usckingsfan,
it worked last week and I don't want to screw anything up at this point...I'm very superstitious...thanks for your understanding...
todaysaction,
early in the week when some of my matchbook offers were matched I wasn't around my cpu...I then had my buddy log into SBR for me and he posted my plays: "Play #1" and instead of using a + and - sign, he put "plus" and "minus"...while I appreciated him doing it for me to get the plays out to everyone, I went back and changed the reading to make it uniform with how I like to present it...I'm sure those that saw the play posted initially can tell you the team, point spread and juice didn't change...thanks man...
kalum,
I'm not a big trend guy, and I can tell you that this Arizona team is unlike any Stoops has ever had...also, Washington is a really bad team and now just lost their all-everything player...this is a very bad spot for them this week and their coach is sure to be fired at the end of the year, everyone knows it too...I have a slight lean to UConn at +7.5 or more and no opinion for or against your other four plays...GL...
masr,
thank you...glad we will be on those two games together...GL bud...Comment -
Sooner Im not knocking your capping Ive seen your picks on here and you are solid.....My only point is that between May and the beginning of a season there is so much that changes with injuries and all sorts of things....thats all. Didnt mean any disrespect.Tell me, does this figure seem unrealistic and silly to you as well?
2008-2009 College Football: 55-33-1 +83.5 UNITS
That record is all true and documented and Pags will vouch for it. I only post it to tell you this -- I credit it all to handicapping every team and game from April to August. AND, before you "pooh pooh" that, realize that Pags does the same thing with his game tapes and research. I found out long ago that if you want to win money at this recreation we all love, you have to put in the hours. I don't mind it though because I love the sport. I also don't claim to know everything about handicapping college football, I'm still learning.
Peace, dude . . . . .Comment -
In addition to the X's and O's of this game there is also the angle of Coach Graham and his connections to rice. Line has really shot up the last few days.pags,
Hey bro if Tulsa gets up to 17 which I dont think it will, we may be butting heads on 1 game this week. For some reason my gut just tells me to go with Rice. I dont know what it is, I'm trying to learn more what the players are thinking about this game because my cousin used to play football for them. Even if that happens, theres definitely still room to meet in the middle.. Best of luck to you this week and thanks for the support.
The score in Rice Owls last game has some deceiving qualities about it as well. That game likely contributed to public perception in combination with Central Arkansas scoring 34 against the golden hurricanes and resulted in pags getting the line that he desired.
Isn't this write-up day ?
look forward to those.Comment -
Hello Board,
Here are my plays for the week:
Oklahoma St. -23.5
Some of you guys may be raising your eye brows at some of my plays lately as I traditionally play more dogs than favorites. What you have to understand, though, is that when I play a favorite like this one that I am extremely confident in the pick. I say that because laying points in college football can be a risky proposition, as anything can happen. If you are going to lay double digits, most all of the time you want to do it with a home team and one that has the ability to build and sustain big leads. Oklahoma St. is a team built for these kinds of spreads when they play mediocre to weak competition. They have quietly flown under the radar since the start of the season, just reaching the Top 25 this past week. They are led by their dual threat QB Zac Robinson, who makes plays through the air and is also a great read option quarterback. He completes a high percentage of his passes, which keeps team honest from stacking up vs. the run when playing OSU. The running game is the true strength of the OSU offensive attack, as shown by the almost 400 yards in rushing they racked up against a good Troy defense last week. OSU has three tailbacks who all average over 6.8 ypc in Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston and Beau Johnson. These three guys all run behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, which really makes a difference in the second half as they start to pound their opponent. WR Dez Bryant has emerged as a real playmaker in a run dominant offense, having caught six touchdowns so far this season. I have capped this game as though TE Brandon Pettigrew isn’t going to play, but reports I read have him listed as a game time decision. If he ends up playing he will bolster their passing game, as he is one of the best tight ends in the nation. I’m not going to tell you that Oklahoma St. is a great defensive team, but I do feel that they are improved in that department. Head coach Mike Gundy made it a point of emphasis in the off season. It is going to be very difficult for A&M to generate a lot of points in this game as both of their quarterbacks are nursing shoulder injuries. It was announced this week that QB Jerrod Johnson is going to start the game, but he will be limited with his ability to be accurate and throw the ball downfield. It is also interesting to note that RB’s Mike Goodson and Jovorskie Lane have had trouble running the football behind an inexperienced Texas A&M offensive line. I also feel that this A&M is a team in turmoil, they have no identity and their players are divided with the new coaching staff trying to implement their system. Oklahoma St. has lost the last four times to A&M and this is OSU’s chance to put one on them. Look for them to do so on Saturday.
Vanderbilt +4
I have to be the first to admit that I wasn’t a big believer of this Vanderbilt team heading into the season, but I will tell you that I was wrong. Sometimes teams defy the odds, and a bunch of players that weren’t highly recruited that are coached well come together and have a season like Vanderbilt is having. One of the biggest signs of consistency with this team is that Bobby Johnson has the same set of assistant coaches the last seven years. I’m not sure most people realize what a big deal this is as most staffs change from year to year. These coaches have implemented their system and these players believe. Vanderbilt’s defense thrives off of creating turnovers. So much is made today about yardage giving up, but few people pay attention to turnover margin. Teams that create turnovers make up for the yardage they give up and can still be great defensive football teams. This is as much team speed I’ve ever seen a Vanderbilt team have under Bobby Johnson, particularly with their defense. This will come in handy facing an Auburn offense searching for an identity. It was announced this week that Auburn isn’t going to run their Tony Franklin coached spread offense, which I find interesting. I was amazed that former offensive coordinator Al Borges was relieved of duty last December as I thought he was one of the better offensive coordinators in the game. I understand that Auburn wants to go to a spread, but this team is torn between what they were and what they want to be. Also, they are toying with the option with playing both quarterbacks this week, which is going to be a tough task on the road vs. this Vanderbilt defense. Auburn’s defensive unit is definitely a strong one, but Vanderbilt QB Chris Nickson is a playmaker, very much like Tyrod Taylor from Virginia Tech. He makes plays with his feet and although he doesn’t have a lot of speed burning receivers to throw the ball to, he finds a way to move the chains. Vandy RB Justin Hawkins has emerged as the go-to back, and although he will have his hands full, he will take some of the pressure off Nickson and put them in third and manageable situations. Vandy believes, and so do I.
Penn St. -12
Yes, your eyes aren’t deceiving you; I am taking a road favorite, a double digit road favorite at that. I can’t begin to tell you how impressed I am with this year’s Penn St. team and how unimpressed I am with this year’s Purdue team. Penn St. continues to show people why they are one of the most balanced offensive football teams in the entire country and they are showing no signs of slowing down. QB Darryll Clark makes plays with his arm and his legs. Their RB department is as deep as any team in the country, headed by Evan Royster and Stephfon green. Their offensive line opens up holes and gives Clark ample time to throw. WR/KR Derrick Williams is showing everyone why he was one of the most heavily recruited players in Penn St. history coming out of high school as he is having a great year running, catching and returning the ball. Fellow seniors Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood (who it appears will play this week) are excellent receiving threats, as is big tight end Andrew Quarless. As I mentioned in my write-up when Penn St. played Oregon St. about three weeks ago, defenses have to pick their poison when trying to defend the Penn St. offense. It’s virtually impossible for a good defense to try and shut down all of these players, let alone a defense like Purdue’s. In the off-season, Purdue lost RB Jaycen Taylor to an injury which left senior Kory Sheets to carry the load. Sheets is a good back, but he separated his shoulder last week vs. Notre Dame and although Joe Tiller says that he’s “90-95%” heading into this game, I’m not really buying it. If Sheets isn’t able to be productive it’s going to put a lot of pressure on QB Curtis Painter to try and match scores with Penn St. This is going to be a difficult task as the defensive line for Penn St. is getting healthy again and Penn St. also has a great secondary. The lack of playmaking WR’s is going to hurt Purdue’s chances in this game as well. The biggest factor in this game is that I believe that this Purdue team has started to give up on the season. They always seem to swoon midseason under Tiller the past four or so years and I see them starting to do so again this year. Their fans don’t even really believe in their team and I don’t see them being a factor in this game, especially in the second half. I’m swallowing the road chalk in this one, but I believe it’s worth the risk.
Iowa +9.5
This Iowa team is quite peculiar. They seem to function very well as underdogs and not well as favorites. Possibly this is because of the conservative nature of their coaching staff, possibly this is because of their run based offense eating clock, and possibly their strength on defense plays a role in this as well. I’m not quite sure. I just know that I’ve watched this team play quite a bit this year, and I really think they match up well with this Michigan State team. Everyone comes into this game talking about MSU running back Jevon Ringer and I’ll be the first to admit that he’s a great back. However, I’m not so sure he’s that much better than Iowa running back Shonn Greene, who’s flown underneath the public radar so far this season. Iowa’s run defense is the strength of their defense and this matches up well against Michigan State’s offense, which up until this point has been to hand the ball to Ringer 35-40 times a game. I’m not sure Ringer will be able to see the type of success, at least in terms of yards per carry that he has previous to this game. Iowa will make to look to have MSU QB Bryan Hoyer attempt to beat them. He may be able to do that on the scoreboard, but I’m not sure he can vs. the spread. Hoyer is completing 46.5% of his passes so far this year and has only three touchdowns. His main receiving threat, Mark Dell, has the chance to be very special, but have of his receiving yardage came in week one vs. Cal. Iowa has finally settled on QB Ricky Stanzi, who I have been impressed as the season has gone on. He reminds me a little bit of Doug Flutie in that he has excellent footwork and he has the ability to make plays on the run if the pocket breaks down. I think the Michigan State defense will have their hands full attempting to handle Iowa’s balance on offense. I’m not sure there will be a whole lot of points scored in this game, a game that could ultimately be decided in the fourth quarter. That being said I will gladly take the plethora of points and Iowa in this game.
Iowa St. +13
When Gene Chizik was first hired by Iowa St. I had a “wait and see” attitude. I knew the guy was a good defensive mind but I had my doubts about his ability to be a head coach at a BCS conference school. I must say that I’ve liked what I’ve seen from his club over the last year and a half. His teams, while not supremely talented, play good fundamental football and are extremely disciplined. They have recruited some better athletes over the past two seasons and those players are starting to make impacts. QB Austen Arnaud has emerged as the number one quarterback and reminds me a lot of former ISU QB Bret Meyer. He has good footwork and has continued to improve upon his decision making as the season has gone on. Iowa State’s rushing game will have to show improvement this week, and after having watched Kansas play three times so far this season I do think they have some success running the football. I’m not sure this is the same defense Kansas had last year, as they lost some key members of that defensive unit to graduation and the NFL draft. RB Alexander Robinson has the most ability of any of the ISU running backs and can also catch the ball out of the backfield. WR R.J. Sumrall has become the go-to pass catcher in the ISU offense and he has big play ability. Kansas is still a good football team on offense with QB Todd Reesing. I have also observed after having watched them that their running game isn’t what it was last year. RB Jake Sharp hasn’t shown the same form as he did last year and has been battling through injuries. I do anticipate him being healthier for this game, but the other two running backs receiving carries only had a combined seventeen rushing attempts last year. This lack of depth and experience could play a role on Saturday. Todd Reesing will sling the ball around the field on Saturday, but I expect ISU to exploit Kansas’s defense in this game, while also containing the Kansas running game. If they are able to do so, this game could end up being a battle deep into the fourth quarter. I think ISU is a double digit home dog worthy of consideration here.
Arizona -21
Seems like a pretty huge number doesn’t it? Most people weren’t aware that when this game came out that Jake Locker was out for the season. The odds makers, however, were. These guys don’t miss much, there’s a reason that the line for this game was set so high. One, Arizona has the best team they’ve ever had under Mike Stoops and two, Washington is absolutely terrible and their season is spiraling out of control. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama has really come into his own the past year and half and is flourishing under Sonny Dyke’s spread offense. He’s completing a high percentage of his passes (63.9%) and has also made excellent decisions distributing the football (10 TD/ 2 INT) so far this season. WR/PR Mike Thomas might be the best receiver in the country that you’ve never heard of. Even if you’ve heard of them I think most of you will agree that he is at least one of the most underrated receivers in the country. This guy is absolutely electrifying, and while small in stature, he has great hands and is has explosive speed. TE Rob Gronkowki is finally over his bout with mono and showed a couple of weeks ago vs. UCLA why he’s one of the best tight ends in the country, catching a couple of touchdowns. WR’s Delashaun Dean (21 rec./ 2 TD) and Terrell Turner (16 rec./ 1 TD) round out a top-notch receiving corp. RB Nicholas Grigsby (5.6 ypc, 7 TD) is the workhorse of the Arizona running back department. Washington is having major issues on the defensive side of the football, as they’ve been pounded on by offenses like BYU, Oklahoma and Oregon. This is a tired defense and Arizona will be able to continue to wear them down. Defensively, Arizona has the number two overall defense in the country and I look for them to put the screws to the Washington offensive, especially without QB Jake Locker. There isn’t a player that means more to an entire team in the country than Jake Locker means to Washington. Once he went down last week the entire team look defeated. Tyrone Willingham also looks completely lost. Look for more of the same from of them this week. Arizona will show no mercy as they want to get into the Top 25. If you don’t believe me, look at what his brother does to teams.
Tulsa -14
Todd Graham, where do I begin with this guy? He was the backbone of a Steve Kragthorpe coached Tulsa team for many years, helping them achieve bowl status. He then took over a downtrodden Rice program that ran the triple option and in one year implemented a passing based spread and took them to a bowl game. I’m not sure most people realize what a terrific feat that is. Then, he gets the Tulsa job and last year led them to a non-conference victory vs. BYU, a great conference regular season, and also a bowl victory where they thrashed a pretty good Bowling Green squad. This guy knows how to coach football and he has this year’s team playing at even a higher level than last year’s team. You really think he wants to lose to his old team this week? Don't you also think he might have a clue as to the tendency's of his former players? Most people thought that with the loss of QB Paul Smith to graduation that Tulsa might struggle to move the football through the air this year. This has not been the case as senior QB David Johnson has stepped up to throw for 19 touchdowns in four game and is completing 73.7% of his passes so far on the year. Tulsa has five pass catchers who average over sixteen yards per reception. A lot of the credit regarding the success Tulsa has had on offense the last two years has to go to Gus Malzon, the former offensive coordinator at Arkansas. This guy understands how to attack a defense and his no huddle attack is also very balanced, as shown by the success Tulsa has running the football. RB’s Tarrion Adams, Jamad Williams and Charles Opeseyitan all average over six yards per carry, which takes the pressure off Johnson as opposing defenses can’t just pin their ears back and focus on defending the pass. Also, last week, RB Courtney Tennial, one of the top rushers on the ’06 team who medical red shirted last year, returned to the line up last week. Am I saying that Tulsa is a great defensive team? No. Are they merely average on defense? Probably. I have no doubts that Chase Clement will complete his share of passes to Jarret Dillard and James Casey. Rice will get their points through the air. Rice’s two biggest weaknesses are the inability to run the football consistently and their defense is extremely poor. Tulsa is simply going to outscore and outlast them, especially since this is Rice’s fourth road game in five weeks.
GLTAComment -
clowncar,
excellent analysis...you are on point...
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On Vandy, PSU, AZ, and funny....just hit Tulsa brfore I saw you're 7th pick.
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No conflicting picks, and we are both on Arizona and Penn State...
Lets both go undefeated this week!Comment
