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Comment -
my bad regarding the timing of Gundy's speech...I just equated the game where Reid was benched for Robinson as the game he made his speech...obviously I was wrong...still doesn't change the fact that I think OSU slings Troy around...I was able to watch the Troy vs. OSU tape from last week last night and even more confident...Gundy is a much better offensive mind than myself and I'm sure he sees what I saw too...Comment -
I am on the over 60. It should be an offensive game, that much I am certain. OSU is averaging 62 Points a game and Troy 36 or something.. So I am on the over 60. I will stay away from the line because there are too many conflicting opinions on the game.Comment -
shrax,
if I wasn't 1-4 in my last 5 games playing against UGA (dating back to last year), I would be on Bama this week at +7 or more...just can't take three weeks in a row going against these guys as I feel fortunate to be 1-1 in that span...
lout,
thanks for your comments...I do believe that OSU's offense is harder to defend than both Kansas's and Texas Tech (as both those offenses have trouble running the ball regularly)...OSU may have the 2nd most most balanced attacked in the Big 12 (behind OU), although I definitely do respect Missouri's and Texas's as well...
mrhandicapable,
thanks for your thoughts...I'm also tired of getting beat by Urban Meyer...I played against them in what I felt was a very good spot last week and still got my ass kicked...staying away from ass-rapings until further notice...
crazyl,
thank you very much...thank you also for helping police my threads, I really appreciate it...
white tiger,
yeah I know things were a little harder to read this week...thanks for putting up with it...
soonerbs,
thank you for all of your thoughts in the thread...I appreciate it...yes, I am hopeful we can both win this week too...GL brother...Comment -
pags- I just checked in and it took a few minutes to get used to the new format. Doesn't trouble me a bit, and I realize you gotta do what you gotta do.
I had 5 of your games last week picked all by myself. Broke even taking Arinona St.
So much for the Southeast Conference
I really am on board with Okie St, VPI, and Marshall plays this week. And I have no trouble following your other 4.
Best of luck.
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taurus,
thanks for understanding the new format...yeah, my picks were terrible last week, sorry man...glad we agree on a few this week though...looking forward to seeing your picks across the street...GL brother...Comment -
I am a little bit confused about people being concerned about what day the tirade by Gundy actually occurred.
The article in the Oklahoman was printed prior to their victory over Texas Tech and was the result of events that happened in starting Robinson the week before against Troy. The article basically inferred that Reid was benched because he was soft.
The whole incident is directly related to the Troy game and decisions made by Gundy regarding that game and the future of the starting quarterback position. It had nothing to do with Texas Tech then and nothing to do with Texas Tech now.
A big victory over Troy has to be a motivating factor for not just the players but the coach as well. He has to want to show the world that he made the right decision in going with Robinson and benching Reid.
The timing of when the actual "I'm a man , I'm forty ! " speech occurred is pointless. The important information , as handicappers, for us to examine is the motivation. And that decision to start Robinson , followed by that terrible performance on national television vs an underrated sunbelt team, followed by the events leading up to Carlson writing that article , followed by the speech concerning the article and Bobby Reid leads any objective handicapper to come to one conclusion regarding motivation for this game.
enjoy your threads every week , pags
I am also done with Urban Meyer raping me.
Best of luck this week and your original analysis concerning the speech is far more relevant than the date when the tirade occurred.Comment -
Hey pags just a suggestion...
Its really hard with your new format to figure out what your picks are since we have to sift through tons of comments etc. to see them.
You should edit the first post of this thread to include all of your picks. As you add them, you can make a new post as you have been doing, but also include it on the 1st post of this thread. That way I can open your picks thread and see who you have this week instead of sifting through 4 pages to find your plays.
Remember the "last edited by pags" feature will timestamp when you edited, so if your last edit is friday night, no one can claim BS that it was edited as it will be clear your edits were in before the games started. Yes, you'll have the occasional non-believing hater, but you'll get those anyway. For those of us that actually want to see your picks and not give you shit, I think this would make it much easier. Just a thought.Comment -
usckingsfan,
I appreciate your suggestion and will consider it...unfortunately I have people watching my every move and want to give them zero room to make false accusations...thanks again though...
clowncar,
I could have swarn too it had to do with the Troy game...thanks for your input...and yeah, there are way too many games on the board to bet than to consider going against Urban Meyer...same goes for Bob Stoops and Pete Carroll too...Comment -
Considering you are posting your plays as you make them and every pick you put in the first post will have a corresponding un-edited post clear as day in the same thread attached to it, these people will pretty clearly be in the wrong here.
You could even do that... like...
Oklahoma St -17 (+105) for 3 units (Post #28)
Duke -7 (+101) for 3 units (Post #37)
etc...
If it sounds like too much of a hassle, don't bother. I just think some of your readers don't spend all day on SBR and might want to come on and get a quick glance of all your picks in one place.Comment -
I do like that, refering to the post where I post the play but using the opening thread to keep it all together...Comment -
Good luck this week pags...im on Ok st and Duke this week!
Its going to be a good week..i can feel it
GL this week
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masr,
glad we will be on those two games together...yeah, I'm hoping you are right about it being a good week...
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In with you as well. When you cash in the haters will disappear; however, if you got haters you doing something right...Comment -
boster,
you are 100% right on all accounts...thanks man...Comment -
tailing u on duke and ok st pags. gl with the rest of ur games
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Hello Board,
Here are my plays for the week. I’m going to do something a little different this week. I’d like to recognize some of the other successful cappers out there on the internet and will use seven different write-ups from seven different cappers who view the games I’m on in a similar light.
Oklahoma St. -17
This write-up is from gosooners. If there is one capper on the net that I would say embodies the style of capper I am it is gosooners. He is a very sharp guy and provides extensive reasoning for his picks in his write-ups. He is extremely knowledgeable with the Big 12 conference, not to mention with all teams across the country. We would be blessed at SBR if he ever graced us with his presence. I have recently gotten to know him better and find him to be a great guy. Here are his thoughts on the game:
“This is one of those sweet revenge spots for OSU. Although I don't hold this angle in high regard, there are certain games where it means more than it does others..I believe this one means more because of the fact that OSU got embarassed by this Troy team on national television. And there is nothing worse than losing to an out of conference Sunbelt team for everyone to see. Besides being a bad weather game last year, OSU was also coming into that game without their leading RB Dantrell Savage, who was the team leader on a young team going on the road for just the second time.. It was also a game that was played the week before OSU's Big 12 opener with Texas Tech. So OSU had other things to deal with coming into that game. This year the shoe is on the other foot. This is a sandwich spot for Troy after playing Ohio State last week, and before their big game with Sunbelt rival Florida Atlantic, who upset Troy for the Sunbelt title in the last game of the season. So which team do you think Troy wants to beat the worst? By the way OSU beat this same FAU team 42-6 just the week before they played Troy last year. So this gives me one more reason to think Troy's win over OSU was a little on the fluke side. At any, no matter what you may think, the fact is OSU will have had two weeks off to prepare for this game. Troy is in a sandwich spot after a tough game with Ohio State. Sunbelt teams have a way of sneeking up on BCS teams. Especially ones who are early in the year are struggling on offense. That won't be happening here. Sunbelt teams have had many problems on the road when facing good BCS offenses. The last 3 years the scores when Troy faced good to great offensive teams on the road were 46-26, 59-21, 56-0, 52-21, 45-20. Which is the case here. I guarantee you this Okie State team's offense can run circles around the struggling Ohio State offense that Troy played last week. I expect OSU to put up at least 45 points in this game. And with Troy no longer with their star QB Omar Haugabook, and a couple key WR's along with a starting RB, this team won't be nearly as potent on offense this season. Troy is only averaging a little over 300 ypg total offense against division 1 teams this year. And I don't see them doing much better here despite facing just an average Big 12 defense. So in the case of these two teams Troy is down a notch. OSU is up a couple notches. Sandwich spot for Troy. Two weeks to prepare for OSU. Plus a HUGE QB advantage for OSU. The Pokes are the home team this year. And they are laying in waiting. I expect a 49-17 type of game. Get this line early!”
Virginia Tech +7
This write-up is from mistaflava. Mistaflava has been on the internet giving analysis long before I ever started going online. When I first started to post online he was very nice to me, he even used to let me use is yahoo internet radio account to listen to games. His strength is as a fundamental handicapper. I’m not sure there’s a person around that can match up two teams and break down their strengths and weaknesses better than he can. If you ever get a chance to read more of his stuff, I highly recommend him. Here are his thoughts on the game:
“The Virginia Tech Hokies deserve a little bit better than what Vegas has going for them this game in terms of the line but Frank Beamers and his guys are used to it and this is no different than the ludicrous underdog line they had on them last week. The bottom line is that year in and year out this program produces good athletes from all over the place and regardless of experience, these guys find a way to win and Beamer ball is always a good way to go when it comes to wagering. Virginia Tech is coming off that huge in-conference win over North Carolina last week in their second ACC Conference game of the season. That's two weeks in a row now that this team has had to face a tough ACC opponent and two weeks in a row that they have come out with an impressive win. It is the out of conference action that probably has most bettors a little bit concerned as the Hokies lost 27-22 to East Carolina as a -9 point favorite in their season opening game but that was then and this is now. Virginia Tech does not play on artificial turg too often and this could cause adjustment problems for some of these kids. Having said that, it has not been an issue in the past as the Hokies are 11-6 SU lifetime when playing on a turf surface as opposed to natural grass and I don't expect them to have too many issues with this stuff. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging only 21.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 272.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play in those games. On that note, this offense has not impressed at all this season and they are due for some sort of impressive performance. Nebraska's defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game this season but lets get real, who has this team faced? The Huskers defense has allowed 347.3 total yards of offense this season for only 4.9 yards per play in those games but I have a feeling they are in for a tough fight in this one. The last two seasons were a complete disaster when it comes to running the ball for VT and they were actually Beamer's worst two seasons running wise since his arrival. Well things are already starting to get better this season as Virginia Tech is averaging 173.8 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry and RB Darren Evans has looked great this season and Tyrod Taylor will gain his fair share of yardage on the ground. Nebraska has yet to face a running threat this season therefore they have allowed only 86.3 rushing yards per game on the year and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry. In the air is where things are going to have to be won for Virginia Tech. QB Tyrod Taylor has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 199 passing yards, 5.0 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Like I said, things need to get better for this team to keep winning. Nebraska's secondary is decent and they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.2% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt (sounds a bit high and I think VT can expose that with the help of Sean Glennon). Protection has been an issue for this offensive line as the QBs have been sacked 9 times already in four games. That is why I would like to see more Tyrod Taylor pocket bailing in this game because Nebraska has 5 sacks in their three games this season and they could bring a lot of pressure. What I really like about Beamer ball however is that this team does not turn the ball over on the ground. Even though they have rushed an average 42.8 times per game this season, the Hokies have yet to lose a fumble and that is going to be a problem for the Huskers defense if they can't force turnovers on a regular basis. In their three games, Nebraska has forced only 3 fumbles and they have managed to recover only 1 of those fumbles somehow. The key to this game for the Virginia Tech offense is going to be to establish the run early and have the Husker defenders thinking spy on Taylor. Even if they go down they need to keep running the ball and they need to mix things up at the QB position to ensure some yardage through the air as well. I really think the Hokies can control the clock in this game and I think they can put enough points on the board to keep things close and put themselves in a position to win the game. Virginia Tech has only played in Nebraska once and that was a 41-21 loss in 1996. That's not happening again, Beamer ball prevails once again.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are virtually unknown in the sense that we don't ever hear much from them early on in the season until they one of these big games comes up against a non-conference powerhouse opponent (does the USC game ring a bell for anyone?). I know this game doesn't mean much to Virginia Tech because their main concern now is winning the ACC Conference and finding their way into a BCS Bowl. Nebraska on the other hand has a monsterous game against Missouri next week for Homecoming and something really tells me that they have worked in some preparations for that game into their weekly workouts this past week. I mean it would make sense because Missouri is a much more opponent for them than Virginia Tech and even if they lose this game, which they obviously don't want, they will still be alive in the Big 12 Conference race if they can knockoff Missouri next week. Having said that, how can Nebraska possibly be prepared for this game having played against team like Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State this season. Yes they went 2-1 ATS in those games and yes they scored a bunch of points but I am not a big fan of teams that dodge tough opponents in the first few weeks of the season because why not know what you're made of right away? I have always been a big fan of that and it doesn't make sense to hide behind a weak schedule the way the Huskers do pretty much every single season. Nebraska comes into this game averaging a whopping 40.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 450.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. That should make this a tough night for Bud Foster and his defense that has allowed only 17.0 points per game this season on 327.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. That's nowhere near on par for a Bud Foster defense but things are only starting to heat up now and the Hokies defense lives for a games like this. Nebraska has been quite efficient on the ground this season rushing for 189.0 yards per game and averaging 5.4 yards per carry in those games. Virginia Tech has surprisingly allowed teams to run all over them and concentrated more on cutting out long range plays downfield. They have allowed 143.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry but I think Nebraska is going to be too eager to throw the ball in front of the home crowd and that could come back to haunt them. If they have the patience to run, run and run some more, this team is going to be successful. In the air, QB Joe Ganz has completed 64.1% of his passes this season for 719 passing yards, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is going up against a Virginia Tech defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. I think it's safe to say Bud Foster expects a lot more out of his guys and I think we are going to see one of their best defensive efforts this season with a lot of blitz packages and some underneath coverage. I say that because Ganz is susceptible to making mistakes and if he is pressured a lot more than the one sack per game he has suffered so far this season, he will no doubt make some horrendous throws downfield that should be picked off by this defense that now has 4 interceptions in 4 games this season. The Hokies also have 6 sacks but like I said before, I would like them to bring a lot more pressure in this game knowing it should cut down on the long yardage plays and is a nice risk worth taking. Nebraska had and still has penalty issues as they take close to 8.3 penalties per game this season which has cost them 68.0 penalty yards per game and which could cost them when it matters most in this game. What Bud Foster specializes in is teaching his guys how to take away the ball. What I mean by that is that the Hokies have forced 8 fumbles already this season, they have recovered 7 of those fumbles if you believe it or not and they have 4 interceptions to go along with that. That would be 11 forced turnovers and we are only four games in. Nebraska has been known in the past to have problems holding onto the ball in big games and now they are on the floor with a chance to prove us wrong on that. I really think the Nebraska offense will struggle to find rythm if Foster and his guys bring pressure packages. Virginia Tech's defense is always underrated by oddsmakers and this should be no different.
Chances are that the action taken on this game is going to be significantly lower than the action taken on the Alabama-Georgia game being played at the same time meaning that you won't have as many sharps and touts on this thing and that has me excited. I know all the numbers are heavily stacked against this Virginia Tech team in this game as Nebraska is 20-1 SU in their last 21 games played prior to their Conference opening game (the one against Missouri next week) but the level of opposition has usually been a lot weaker than playing against a Frank Bearmer run football team.Nebraska has not lost to an ACC team at home since the 1995 season and they are 9-2 SU lifetime at home versus teams from that Conference. So again the odds are stacked against VT actually winning this game but when have they not been since Beamer got here. He lives for road games like this one and this is one team that always likes to prove naysayers wrong. The public is largely on the Huskers again in this one and I couldn't disagree more with what some people are posting online. Virginia Tech is never to underestimated on the road and the proof lies in their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are also 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games. The knock on this team is that they have not covered the spread against a non-conference opponents in seven games going 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. That streak ends tonight against a Nebraska team that has covered the spread in only 18 of their last 59 games that follow a win of 20+ points. WOW! Nebraska is also very good against tough opponents at home but I like the VT defense a lot more than I like the Nebraska offense. BEAMER BALL!”
Maryland +12
The next write-up is brought to you by timh. Timh is the single most knowledgeable individual on the net regarding Maryland football. I believe that he is an alumn of Maryland. That being said, he is a realist and I have seen him many times bet against his own team. This guy knows the two deep and three deep of each position, and he knows if the Maryland players are cheating on his girlfriend. In fact, if timh claimed to know how many shits Friedgen took in a day, I’d believe him. The guy knows his shit about Maryland football. Here are his thoughts on this week’s game:
“Thoughts on MD this week. First I was pleasantly surprised to see MD open up the offense last week against EM. Totally caught me off guard as I expected that before conference play started and with MD likely to sit D. Scott and ensure he was healthy for Clemson that they would be very vanilla on offense and try and just grind out a win. What I saw, was hardly what I expected as MD threw the ball quite a bit, used some reverses etc. to get the ball in Bey’s hands and were overall very aggressive on offense. The pass defense is of some concern as they have given up quite a bit of a yardage the last two games vs. Cal and EM but missed FS Skinner last week and DB Carroll was also beat up. Both of these should return vs. Clemson this week. MD seems to get in trouble when they go to the zone coverages. They lose their aggressiveness and have a tendency to get soft and give up too much yardage. This is a concern against Clemson who certainly have a very capable QB in Cullen Harper. Looks like MD will be pretty healthy for the game getting Skinner and Carroll back in the secondary and also may get some reps out of Travis Ivey on the DL. Friedgen has been really looking forward to getting Ivey back as MD has been short of linemen all year. I have been very pleased with MD running game so far. Scott has breakaway speed and is really a threat to break off big runs any time he can get through the LOS. Meggett and Green have both looked good and Green is finally getting healthy as well. The OL really had their way with Cal and totally dominated up front and were very physical. MD has a lot of depth there and can play up to 8 or 9 experienced lineman. Last year’s injuries have paid dividends in experience for this year. Overall concerns right now are lack of depth on the DL and consistent pass rush and the health and consistency of the secondary. Chris Turner has looked much better the last two weeks with increased reps and comfort in Franklin’s offense after the absolute shit the bed debacle in Middle Tenn. I am starting to come around on Franklin’s play calling and think he has done a very good job the last two weeks after what I thought was a horrible job vs. MTSU. I feel confident that MD can go down to Death Valley and hang right in this game. I played the +11 earlier this week and see +340 on the ML at the Greek tonight. I can see some value on MD on the ML this week. Clemson has some OL problems and injuries to deal with and I think this game will be close and hard fought.”
Duke -7
Boredlife brings us his thoughts on this game. I haven’t read a whole lot of his stuff, but the posts I have read I have been not only impressed with his knowledge but also entertained with the sarcasm in which he writes with. Here are his thoughts on the game:
He talks about Duke’s first game with James Madison, a game in which Duke won rather handily, “JMU is arguably one of the better 1-AA teams (or whatever the NCAA bureaucrats now call that division) and they recently beat App. St. S/U.
but JMU sucks, and App. St. sucks."
He also touches on the fact that Duke’s run defense is especially stout, which is a key this week vs. Virginia, “They held Navy to their lowest rushing output in '08 so far, compared to Ball St. and Rutgers..(but in your mind...Ball St. sucks, Rutgers sucks)."
Finally, Duke outgained Northwestern in yardage 472-328, and rushing yardage 178-77. But I know, Northwestern sucks too. By the way Northwesten held Ohio to 232 yards total offense, and only 4 yards rushing, but that's ok cause they suck also. Interesting cause Ohio put up 254 on Ohio St., inlcuding 145 rushing on Ohio St. !!
Duke's QB (Thadius Lewis, a flat-out stud) has a 5/0 TD - INT ratio., but he sucks too.
David Cutliffe was one of the more respected coaches in the SEC at Ole Miss, but since he coaches now at Duke, he sucks too.
I don't even know why i'm contributing to this idiotic thread cause any plausible arguement that anyone makes about Duke being a reasonable play, you just dismiss it.
In fact, it sounds like to me that you are trolling for affirmation to justify taking Virginia, since Duke sucks.
So go ahead and take UVA +7, a team that been outscored 17-97 in 2 games vs. BCS teams, and was led Richmond 3-0 at home midway through the 4th quarter in their only win.”
Colorado +6
Vegaskyle provides us insight on this game. I first read some of vegaskyle’s stuff about a year ago and knew immediately that this guy was an excellent college football handicapper. He is especially knowledgeable with the WAC, and I can honestly say that he does more research than even me. He is an analytical thinker, is very good with numbers and has great discipline. I feel fortunate in that I’ve been able to start working with him this year. Here are his thoughts on the game:
“Colorado looks like a play or needs to be looked at closely at a minimum .. the score of the wake game does no justice to how badly fsu played last week. I have no confidence in the coaching of the seminoles despite the plethera of big names on that staff. So i think buffs have a significant coaching edge and a significant edge at qb. FSU speed is a big concern for me though. Colorado got shut down by wvu for the better part of three quarters in their last game and the fsu defense is markedly superior to that of wvu. Also ahve Colorado travelling over a few time zones which i dont like. last tiem Colorado travelled to florida was in 2005 and they got stomped by miami fl 3-23 the year Colorado went to the big 12 championship and got rolled by VY. They lost by 10 at home to this fsu team last year and i think both teams are better this time around. Fsu home game to wake was really their first bit of competition ... sort of like a first game to second game scenario where most teams improve the most. So i have some concerns about Colorado. Both teams have significant lookaheads with texas and miamifl on deck for each respectively. Now with all that siad ,,,,, i think it would take a crazy man to lay 6 with the seminole offense and think Colorado is the side. The big edge here is qb hawkins understanding the system vs QB ponder ...“
Cal -26.5
The next write-up (with help from yours truly) comes from an up and coming young capper named jpicks. I read his Mountain West stuff every week and this guy knows the conference in and out. He is much like myself as well, in that he tries to make value plays, very seldom laying a bunch of points. I feel he has a very good grasp of college football out west and we share similar views regarding this week’s game. Here are his thoughts:
“Cal -up to about 28 here. CSU will get smoked, but I need to look at some other things before I pull the trigger. Was hoping for something below 23 so a bit more hesitant…” This was my initial thought as well, I do believe oddsmakers are making us pay for call this week, but I also feel there’s a good reason. JPicks goes on to say
“Cal was up 34-10 with under 4 mins to go last year and gave up 14 points in a minute's time. One of the main reasons I feel good about laying a big # in this spot.
While CSU beat HOU this week they did got completely manhandled in the 2nd half. Without the 5-0 TO advantage they lose by alot. Certainly the worst 2-1 team in CFB. I think CSU is more than happy with the idea of going in to league play at 2-2.
Really liking this play more and more even with the shitty line.” He brings up some great points regarding last year’s Cal vs. CSU game where I feel CSU was a stronger team AND they were at home. This week they head down to Berkely, where Cal has one of the more underrated home field advantages in the country.
I responded to his thoughts by adding:
“jpicks,
you don't know how glad I am to see you on Cal here...I consider you one of the more knowledgable cappers on the net when it comes to the MWC...I too follow the Pac 10 and MWC and almost never lay this kind of number, but I'm also on Cal here...as I looked more into the box score of the Houston vs. CSU game and factored in the fact that Houston had dealt with the hurricane the previous week or so, I think that CSU's victory is a bit misleading (combined with the 5 first half Houston turnovers you mentioned earlier)...Cal is chomping at the bit, their LB's match up well with RB Johnson and TE Sperry (who just isn't the same after his knee injury)...also, Cal has a deep corp of RB's and two good QB's, not to mention an outstanding offensive line...this is a recipe for what I refer to as a "sling-around"...”
His last comment was along the exact same lines that I was thinking, as most of you know me almost never to lay this many points:
“Thanks pags. Your comment is 100% on the money, everything about it. I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've been on a spread larger than two TD's in my short time betting CFB. There are just to many factors here that point to a blowout.”
“Cal will light up the scoreboard in this one. Cal will get 500 yards of offense in this one. It's a matter of them scoring TD's rather than FG's. Your 51-17 sounds more than reasonable and I won't be shocked if the Golden Bears put up a 60 spot.”
Marshall +15.5
The last capper I’d like to recognize in this thread is one of my good friends. He and I have worked together for a long time and some of you may remember him as IMGV here at SBR. He now goes by gynecologist and has continued to get better with his capping every year. He excels at a number of sports, particularly college football. I am still extremely upset that he’s been banned here at SBR and want to make it known that he is sorely missed around these parts. While I will do most of this write-up, here are his thoughts on this game:
“Marshall plus (the points) is a great bet..”
Marshall comes into this game playing great football. Their only loss on the year came at Wisconsin, a game in which they led 14-0 before Wisconsin’s passing game got to them in the second half. Last week they beat a quality Southern Miss team at Southern Miss. They are lead by two future NFL players in RB Darius Marshall (4.5 ypc), and WR Darius Passmore (26 receptions, 4 TDs). Producing top quality football players is nothing new to the Marshall football program as Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, Ahmad Bradshaw have all went on to start in the NFL from this program. Watching last year’s game vs. West Virginia, a game where there was a severe talent gap, Marshall fought tooth and nail for about fifty minutes before West Virginia exerted their will on Marshall. This is going to be a much more difficult task in this years game for WVU as the talent gap has narrowed dramatically. Bill Stewart is completely lost coaching this West Virginia team, and his hire may go down as one of the worst in WVU history. This team lacks discipline on defense and is one dimensional on offense. Their playcalling is also extremely sketchy. Marshall head coach Mark Snyder, on the other hand, has done a great job the last three years, since coming over after being a coordinator at Ohio State under Jim Tressel. I anticipate he will be coaching a BCS team one day. For now, though, he has his team believing heading into Morgantown. Marshall will be able to move the ball on offense. They will have to stack the line on defense and try to force Pat White to beat them through the air. I have a tough time seeing that happen and will take the points and hold on.
I tried to do things a little different this week for a couple of reasons. One, I wanted to shake things up as I didn't fair so well last week. Two, and more importantly, I wanted to show you how many great cappers there are out there. These guys are the type of people I’d like to attract to SBR. That can only be done if there is more emphasis on handicapping and less emphasis on bullshitting around. Best of luck to everyone this week!Last edited by pags11; 09-26-08, 04:39 AM.Comment -
alexda,
glad we are going to be on both of those games together this week...
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Question. Say you got Okla on the line at -17. Score ends up 38-21. What happens there?Comment -
schammer,
I assume you mean OSU -17 and that is the final...it would be a push, just returning your initial wager...in a push the juice you pay (or the plus juice you get) doesn't matter...Comment -
Looks great pags. Best of luck to you this weekend. Really like the way you did everything.Comment -
Thanks for the insight Im all over Duke.. OKST and Colorado... I also like Miami -7 and Auburn -6 1/2 What do you think pags... also do you have any insight on tonights game it seems like the concesus is Lville -3.5Comment -
pags- I really enjoyed thealteratiion you made in presenting your write-ups this week. I know a few of those guys, and I agree they are very good. It was classy of you to recognize them.
Having said that, if you go into my threads across a street or two later today, you will see tha tI too selected VPI and Marshall. You will also see that I join you on Okie St, Dook, Maryland ( thanks for including Tim's analysis) Colorado, and tho I hate to lay that much( gulp ) California.
Wishing you a great week.
taurus the bullComment -
pags,
Weather conditions in Durham are tenuous. Prediction for tomorrow is 90% chance of rain with winds from the N/NE gusting at 16-25 mph.
Any concerns with Duke being able to cover the TD in these likely wet and sloppy conditions, considering it will likely be a ball-control type game and UVA O-line outweighs the Duke D-line by an average of 40lbs.?Comment -
Pags,
Thanks for the picks. Don't listen to the haters. You got fans out here who appreciate what you do.
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With you on OkSt, Col, and Md.
Here's something to look at: IU's Starting S Polk(16 str starts) and SCB Phillips(Sr Capt: out for season with ACL) are both OUT vs MSU. SS Thomas is ? after missing LW with lower leg inj.
Wash ST: SLB Dunn(14 starts) is probable with ankle and SLB Evans(15 starts) is ? vs Ore. nevertheless, banged up. SQBs Lopina and Rogers OUT both having started 2 games TY. Original SRG OUT after 1st game.
When's the last time Navy has been truly blown out? Is WF really that much of a dynamo to give 16 pts.? Navy always seems to hang around and their SQB is back. OK Navy's pass D is bad and WF is a pass Off only, but I just have a feeling here that Navy's the play.
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jacey,
thanks bud...yeah, I just thought I'd change it up a bit this week...GL to you as well this week...
jax,
thank you very much...with UNC's QB situation it's a no play for me...no real opinion on the Auburn game...sorry I didn't get to this sooner regarding the UConn vs. Louisville game...glad to hear you are on board with those other games...GL man...
taurus,
thanks very much, as always your input means a lot and I appreciate you recognizing the way I did things this week...yeah, a lot of those guys are very good and we all work together, right?...I'll stop by your thread later today, always enjoy reading the bull sheet...GL my friend...
gopherbroke,
I appreciate your weather update...the way I look at is that I'm playing Duke against UVA...I think Duke is good and UVA isn't...I'm not sure the weather changes my opinion on all of that...I also believe when it's wet it favors the better offensive team because they know where they are going, the defense doesn't...seriously bro, have you seen Virginia play yet this year?...
diehard,
much appreciated pal...good to know there are guys like you out there...
bearmz,
as always, you always have the injury update and inside info...great work...yeah, those injuries to the IU secondary could present a problem this week...I definitely wouldn't play against Navy this week, you make some good points...GL to you brother...Comment -
I have seen them play this year, against USC; however, I have not seen Duke play. Nevertheless, my experience has been that there are situations where weather can be an equalizer. You obviously do not feel that this is one of those situations, and that's what I was wondering.
Hope it cashes easily...Comment -
gopherbroke,
I wish you would have seen them play vs. UConn...yes, I understand your logic and often times it does apply...I don't anticipate it being an easy cover, but I appreciate you saying that...GL bud...Comment -
Thanks for the picks again Pags. Don't mind the new format at all. I'm sure we'll get back on track this weekendComment -
Terrific writeups as usual Coach.....keep up the good work. I know that I speak for everyone on here, but we are truly fortunate to have you posting here.Comment -
iceman,
thanks for your understanding regarding the new format and also for your support...lets do it this week!...
buddybear,
I appreciate very much you saying that and also thank you for all of the help throughout the season...Comment -
I cannot hold a candle to you yet...... but here are my dissagreements.[B]Duke-7
Marshall+15.5
Cal-26.5Comment -
Good Luck tomorrow Pags!!!
FREAK OUT!!!Comment -
hope you have a good day pagsComment
