LTA's NCAAF Plays

**Love The Action** · 12-09-11, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Bet you're kicking yourself for not putting a huge play on RG III now. Still, you got incredible odds for what is now a sure thing.

Not really. At the time, I had no knowledge of it being a sure thing and my book has low limits for these type of wagers. I wagered $250 & my limit was $500. I stand to win $375, so that's not bad for an "action" wager. In this case, i like being right and spotting the value before everyone else more than winning the money

**Love The Action** · 12-09-11, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by rcjiii

Is Steelman playing in this game?

Not confirmed, but I think he will based on my research..gl

**doin** · 12-09-11, 03:14 PM

LTA< it seems you are having the time of your life

**Donnie Brasco** · 12-09-11, 03:27 PM

Rg3 now -3600!

**Donnie Brasco** · 12-09-11, 03:28 PM

I might take luck at +1450

**letsgo** · 12-09-11, 06:51 PM

I hope you are kidding.

**Love The Action** · 12-09-11, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by letsgo

I hope you are kidding.

Why anyone would be on any other candidate at this point - knowing what we now know - is beyond me. It's like throwing your money away...

**Donnie Brasco** · 12-10-11, 08:48 AM

Odds went from -3600 to -2000 on rg3, and +1450 to +1000 on luck. Just saying....Manning was a lock also.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Odds went from -3600 to -2000 on rg3, and +1450 to +1000 on luck. Just saying....Manning was a lock also.

Where was that movement? My books has just been steadily going up on RGIII and has never gone up and then gone back down. Now it is all the way up to -3000.

The problem with your argument in implying that Heisman "locks" of the past did not always win is flawed because in the past there was never an informal polling of the Heisman voters like there is now. If you look at these new polling websites that have sprouted up over the last 5-7 years, they have never been wrong. They actually poll real Heisman voters to find out how they voted, they tabulate those votes and predict a winner. You mentioned Peyton Manning -- in his year, they did not have this informal polling of the voters so that award year is inapplicable to this one.

Based on (1) the huge odds switch which saw RGIII go from big dog to runaway favorite and (2) these polling websites which poll real voters, the result is clear. RGIII will be the winner.

I'm not telling you how to spend your money, but I would highly recommend against throwing your money away on any vote for anyone to win the award other than RGIII.

What's your play in Army/Navy? Good luck

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Navy/Army over (56) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but this is the highest total for an army/navy game in five years despite multiple unders in a row for this matchup, plus the books opened above the key number of 55 for a reason. Two good offenses against two weak defenses, should give us a nice over play. I have this set at 58.5 so we're getting some nice value. Most bets are on the under, but im rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Originally posted by Love The Action

We're looking good on this one as Pinny is up to 58 as of Thursday night. I expect each team to score 4 touchdowns in this game and for it to be a closer game than some might imagine. I'm not saying Navy will or will not cover, but I think they both score a lot of points and give a lot of points up. You have two teams that run the triple option to perfection and even though their defenses may be used to defending, that doesn't mean they have the athleticism to stop it. Both defenses are ranked in the 100's in defensive advanced efficiency stats, while the Navy offense is top 30 and Army is bottom third but improved with the health of Steelman. Pride is on the line in this one and I think we see Army come and play well offensively leading to an exciting game. In this series, there have been four or five unders in a row which will lead some to like the under based on that silly trend. We know better and know those trends are absolutely worthless. Instead, we have this capped at 58.5 and the market seems to agree so far since the total is up to 58. I like the value here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Big move on the under this morning, seeing this one come down from 58 back to 56. Not too happy about it, but the runaway majority of all bets - 74% - are on the under, so that moves make some sense. Just surprised to see a full 2 points. I still like this play, especially if Steelman starts and is healthy. All the reports say he is starting. If you like the over like me, now is the time to play it. I predict we see late money on the over getting this one back up to the 57 range. I am firmly behind the over here. Good luck.

**Dexter** · 12-10-11, 11:43 AM

damn - hate to see you on the opposite side. but we do have a window (57) to both win. 37-20 works for me.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 11:49 AM

Despite having action with two great local books, I've decided to put some money offshore at 5 dimes and become an SBR pro. I want to make at least a $5K deposit. What is the smoothest, most efficient and safest deposit/withdrawal method for a US citizen to avoid tax and/or other legal consequences? Thanks.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

damn - hate to see you on the opposite side. but we do have a window (57) to both win. 37-20 works for me.

**letsgo** · 12-10-11, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Despite having action with two great local books, I've decided to put some money offshore at 5 dimes and become an SBR pro. I want to make at least a $5K deposit. What is the smoothest, most efficient and safest deposit/withdrawal method for a US citizen to avoid tax and/or other legal consequences? Thanks.

P2P

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by letsgo

P2P

Can you explain that a little more in-depth? I have never played offshore before. Thanks.

**letsgo** · 12-10-11, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Can you explain that a little more in-depth? I have never played offshore before. Thanks.

Message sent.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays

Play #1

West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked)

This was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model that night and I have the total set at 63.5. Once I saw my local open at 56, I was shocked and had to make my biggest play of the year on this game. At the very worst, I will have a great middle opportunity. However, I plan on letting it ride. In this game, we will have two of the most prolific offenses squaring off against two mediocre defenses. Both WVU and Clemson are ranked in top 20 and in some categories top 10 in offensive rushing and passing F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency statistics. Despite the bowl layoff, I think we see fireworks and this game gets into the 70's. If you go back throughout the season, both teams' games eclipsed the 56 point mark over 70% of the time. Both teams play at a quick pace which should lead to an abundance of plays. In addition, both teams have solid Ex ratings evidencing the big play capability of both offenses -- I expect quite a few "big plays" in this game. Make no mistake, however, this is a value play. I have this set at 63.5 and I was able to get 56. That is just too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.

Play #2

Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)

I wanted to ensure getting this one below the key totals number of 73. That is the key to this play. Even though Oregon has a solid defense, other than USC and Stanford, Oregon has not faced an offense anywhere near what they will face against Wisky. We all know about Wilson and Ball and the numbers they have put up this year. On the other side, you have Thomas and James. Both offense have great playmakers and this is evidenced in the advanced stats. Wisky ended up with the #1 offense overall in F/+ and S&P+ advanced ratings, while coming in at #2 in FEI. Oregon is top 10 in those same categories. Even though Oregon has top 10 defensive stats, Wisky is ranked in the 30's. This is a big total, but I expect a lot of offense in this game. Everyone likes to point to last year's NC game with Oregon and believes the layoff hurts this rhythm offense. However, I'm not willing to go there yet because 1 is an insignificant sample size. I have this one set at 76 and this is too much value to pass up. In addition, I think this one ends up closing in that 76-77 range and giving us a good shot at a middle if we choose. Life is about options and I like having them. For now, I am rolling wit the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Temple (-6.5) 1x (Locked)

I think this this number dipped below 7 at some outlets based on the uncertainty surrounding Coyer,while some outlets like Pinny opened at 6.5. I do not expect him to play or to be limited at best, so I am only taking 1x for now. I might jump on this for more later, especially if Coyer ends up playing and reports about his health are upbeat closer to game time. I suppose some might argue Wyoming has more to play for and will be the more motivated team, but I'm not sure that is the case. What I am sure of is that Temple dominates this matchup in every major advance efficiency categories. Temple ranks in the 30's or better in offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+, while Wyoming is in the bottom 3rd of NCAAF in the same offensive and defensive categories. I have Temple at -9 in this game which is quite a bit of value on this play so I may be missing something, but I think Temple rolls. Temple has the best offensive player on either team in Pierce at RB and I always like to back the team with the best play-maker. In this game, the dominance on both sides of the ball as well as the dominance in overall athleticism makes Temple the play. I am getting 2.5 points of value on the side which is significant and I expect this one to close above the key number of 7. I am rolling with the Temple for 1x now and maybe more as we get closer to game day. Good luck.

Play #4

Western Michigan/Purdue over (60) 1x (Locked)

I realize Carder separated his shoulder, but he is still expected to be healthy and start in this game. Even if he doesn't you have to impressed by what VanTubbergen did against Akron -- 6 td's in a game is no small feat. This game is all about weak defenses and teams that like to play a quick pace offensively. Both teams are ranked in the 90's in time of possession and both teams like to play a quick paced spread offense. This is also backed up by advanced adjusted pace statistics which have both of these teams in the upper 1/3 of fastest offenses. On defense, both teams are just bad coming in at the 90's or lower in defensive F/+, FEI and S&P+. Even the traditional stats highlight the weakness of these two defenses. I expect WMU to play very well and be very motivated in this game. In fact, I will be on WMU if I can get them at +3 as we get closer to game time. The "active dog" theory definitely applies to this WMU team in this game. As a Big Ten team, Purdue will not be as excited to play in this rinky dink bowl against a rinky dink team like WMU. On the other side, however, WMU will be pumped as this is a great opportunity to show the Big Ten up and show the MAC to be a competitive conference. I have this one set at 63.5 and I'm jumping on the value at 60. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by letsgo

Message sent.

**815Sox** · 12-10-11, 02:03 PM

Good luck today fellas! I like the Wis/O play, I would get on that Clemson game but its up to 60.5. I am not very good at football picks but even I can tell that getting it at 56 seems like a really good number.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 02:39 PM

Looks like the market got the better of me in this Army/Navy game. I can currently get 54.5 through my book that is similar to Legends lines and 55 with the book that is similar to 5d/Pinny. I generally beat the closing number, so when I don't I am not happy. Hopefully, we can get catch some luck in this one. I almost want to take a little bit more on the over at 54.5 under the key number of 55, but this line movement has me leery. I will lay off and hopefully cash this 1x play. Good luck.

**upscope** · 12-10-11, 03:45 PM

All these two teams do is run it UP the middle for 3 yrd & then take 30 sec of the clock. How could this game possibly be 56-57??

**Overbettor** · 12-10-11, 04:08 PM

IF we can get one more td before half we have a a solid chance to cash this.

**upscope** · 12-10-11, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Overbettor

IF we can get one more td before half we have a a solid chance to cash this.

**upscope** · 12-10-11, 04:37 PM

2nd h total 28 w/ under being juiced

Hopefully defense get gased & can't stop anything??

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by upscope

All these two teams do is run it UP the middle for 3 yrd & then take 30 sec of the clock. How could this game possibly be 56-57??

I understand. However, these offenses are designed to wear you down and then hit the big play. That is what the option is all about. You can stop the option if every defender does exactly his assignment. However, sometimes a guy trips or gets blocked or just misses the tackle, when that happens is when you will see a play like the Steelman td run. The dt went after fullback instead of the qb and it resulted in quick score. We only need to get 4 more td's for the push. However, I am actually worried more about a missed extra point than not getting the 4 td's. Both kickers look shaky.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by upscope

2nd h total 28 w/ under being juiced

Hopefully defense get gased & can't stop anything??

That's the idea. Hopefully we can get a special teams td or turnover score to help push this one over.

**upscope** · 12-10-11, 04:53 PM

quick 2 td's to start the 3rd!!

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by upscope

quick 2 td's to start the 3rd!!

That was big. If we can get one more score in the 3rd quarter, I think we cash this play. I am very confident that we will see at least 2 td's in the 4th, so getting at least one score here in the 3rd is huge.

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 05:27 PM

Offsides penalty hurt...why wouldn't Navy pass on third and 6. Play action pass would have been perfect.

**upscope** · 12-10-11, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That was big. If we can get one more score in the 3rd quarter, I think we cash this play. I am very confident that we will see at least 2 td's in the 4th, so getting at least one score here in the 3rd is huge.

Of course we get nothing.....Then an 8 min drive that gets 1st & goal from the 2 & they can't punch it in????
I swear I have had more 1st & goals from the 1 or 2 go sour this year than can possibly be imagined. it doesn't make sense how often that happens when I'm rooting for the TD???

**Krazymojo** · 12-10-11, 05:37 PM

ughhhh still need 2 scores

**Love The Action** · 12-10-11, 05:54 PM

Horrible play calling by Army on 4th down. Play action would have worked perfectly. Instead, just option left option right with no imagination. I get that you have to stick with it, but not in that situation.

Bad play. Got beat by the closer and lost the game. Hopefully RGIII cashes that Heisman ticket for a profitable day.

**Donnie Brasco** · 12-10-11, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Where was that movement? My books has just been steadily going up on RGIII and has never gone up and then gone back down. Now it is all the way up to -3000.

The problem with your argument in implying that Heisman "locks" of the past did not always win is flawed because in the past there was never an informal polling of the Heisman voters like there is now. If you look at these new polling websites that have sprouted up over the last 5-7 years, they have never been wrong. They actually poll real Heisman voters to find out how they voted, they tabulate those votes and predict a winner. You mentioned Peyton Manning -- in his year, they did not have this informal polling of the voters so that award year is inapplicable to this one.

Based on (1) the huge odds switch which saw RGIII go from big dog to runaway favorite and (2) these polling websites which poll real voters, the result is clear. RGIII will be the winner.

I'm not telling you how to spend your money, but I would highly recommend against throwing your money away on any vote for anyone to win the award other than RGIII.

What's your play in Army/Navy? Good luck

I went with my lean that i posted in ur forum earlier this week. Think i had posted that i had 2 points of value on army, with navy set at -5.5. Wound up with army +8. Dont remember what day it was. 5d had the movement i described earlier on luck and rg3. If there werent early ballots cast before the conf champ games, i wouldnt have bet it, but luck is the media darling with all the west coast bias. Rg3 is from flyover country in many of those idiots eyes.

**Love The Action** · 12-11-11, 08:58 AM

RGIII makes it a profitable day. Could have been great had that Army/Navy game gone over.

I will have some more bowl plays posted today. I also have some big plays in the NFL today. Expecting to make a move....

**GChild** · 12-11-11, 11:23 PM

Booooooooooooom