Be careful jumping on them at 8. I think that will come back down and you will be able to buy it to 7 for -120. I'm not sure about the side or total. Toledo is the better all around team and niu sucks on the road, but niu has an explosive offense that can keep it close. I think 8 is a bad number....
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Of all the posters on SBR I feel I am in the best position to...agree with LTA on this one. Beware of this game. Okay, best of luck guys.Comment -
Donnie....toledo up to -8.5...looks like the market agrees with your assessment. Good work. Hmmm...i wonder where this one closes....Comment -
Well sirs, I'm certainly nowhere near your level of capping, as I know you've literally got it down to a science.
Here's what I can do though, I'll let you know if I see any of the players getting hammered at the popular college bar Thursday/Friday.
Hey, I'm only 28, I can still hang at the college bars right?! Right??...Comment -
Chester the molester! Lol! Dude i am new to this and my model is dogshit compared to guys like Lta and dex. But they are great teachers and whatever you have to contribute, put it out there! Subjective or objective, it takes both! I think the advanced stats tell a story here, and while i hate 7+ chalk, gotta trust my model here. Also think fla st maybe alittle ovr priced this week, and lsu is best play on the board imo at 4 or better! Good luck
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Donnie, loving the fact that you are building a model, the more tools we have the better it is for all of usChester the molester! Lol! Dude i am new to this and my model is dogshit compared to guys like Lta and dex. But they are great teachers and whatever you have to contribute, put it out there! Subjective or objective, it takes both! I think the advanced stats tell a story here, and while i hate 7+ chalk, gotta trust my model here. Also think fla st maybe alittle ovr priced this week, and lsu is best play on the board imo at 4 or better! Good luck
Now, we gotta get you an avatar dude, need a little personality to go along with the D.B. handle
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Will do redComment -
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Sorry D-Brask, I am useless on the tech side, honestly don't know how I got mine to stick. End of the day if your picking winners we'll get used to your generic pic,
...someone else will prolly be able to help you out here though.
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I give up on the avatar, i have saved the pic, shows on my profile, no dice in the forum.Comment -
Everything screams Toledo in this game and I can get -7.5 right now...why can't I pull the trigger. I know their defense sucks and they suck on the road and Toledo is playing with revenge....but my gut is telling me to hold off...why?!?Comment -
Other mid-week games
LTA, any thoughts on the other mid-week games, specifically, Temple@Ohio, Akron@Miami (OH) and Tulsa@UCF?
I've got Temple -3.5, Miami (OH) -14 and Tulsa +1.5.
Oh, I also have the under on the Temple@Ohio game and the over in the NIU@Toledo game (as do you!).
Thoughts?
GL this week!Comment -
NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10
Play #1
Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1x (Locked)
Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.Comment -
Agreed....i was thinking that exact same thing. I use my squarer book for teasers because they offer -110 odds on 6 pt 2 teamers and they have -8.5 whereas my sharper book makes me pay -120 for the same teaser and has -7.5.
If you can get -110 odds and cross key numbers in the "wong" zone, then correlated teasers are one of the few teasers profitable long term.
Its got to be a bit disconcerting for toledo backers that pinny has them at -7.5 when all the other books have -8.5.....Comment -
Toledo up to 8.5, total 68. Good call sir! Think the under is worth a look tomorrow night. Temple will run the ball and grind clock. They are also sporting great #'s in the road defensively. I have this one set at temple -6/37.5. I have a little more work to do. U looked at it yet?Comment -
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I found both of those lines very tight, though i have not seen the totals. I have my model built only to play on games where i see a significant advantage, as i saw in toledo at about 3.5 pts. I also have tulsa winning outright and am looking at some situationals there. The game i am looking at right now and have a lean on is west va. Good luck
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Woohoo toledo up to 9.5 LTA! I did something right!Comment -
Just a reminder, this game is 7 est. I hadn't realized that until a few minutes ago. On the over with ya LTA and also teased Toledo down to -2 1/2 over 61. Gl all
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chester the molester,thats funny shit.lolchester the molester! Lol! Dude i am new to this and my model is dogshit compared to guys like lta and dex. But they are great teachers and whatever you have to contribute, put it out there! Subjective or objective, it takes both! I think the advanced stats tell a story here, and while i hate 7+ chalk, gotta trust my model here. Also think fla st maybe alittle ovr priced this week, and lsu is best play on the board imo at 4 or better! Good luckComment -
Same to you brother! It is so gratifying to have my model suggest a play, then see the market move. I dont even care if i win
On the over as well with you! Lets get it. What do you make of the temple line? What am i missing? Line move towards Ohio?
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Same here. -7.5 is an awkward opening line for a game that screams Toledo on the surface. I rated it Toledo -11 and my model tends to underrate home faves in this range, so an opening line that's legitimately 4-5 points lower than I would have expected for a nationally televised midweek division game featuring a team that's atop their division and has been amazing in recent weeks is a red flag.
It's not like Toledo's success is a secret...Comment -
If ur gut says hold off then hold off. They prob lose by 14 the way im running!Comment -
We smashed both closers at pinny! Terrific LTA!Comment -
Wow toledo and nill stopped each other on a series! Unheard of!Comment -
U must be deep in the lab bro, can i get u a urinal and a redbull?Comment -
Play #3
Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)
I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment
