Wal's College Football Week #12

[HoulihansTX]

GL today.

[wal66]

Well this pretty much sucks balls. I have to have the game that I was most concerned about win just to go 3-3 today. Terrible job of decision making.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

tough week. some weird shit happened. I typically hit a high amount of my 3 - 5 team ml parlays, and today a lot of mine were no good. rutgers, wisc, nd, and oklahoma all hurt me.

keep your chin up. we got rivalry week coming up, where there are bound to be some soft lines. we'll close on a high note

[wal66]

I knew I was stretching it thin taking Florida Atlantic so that one didn't bother me but Rutgers completely pissed me off. I was way confident about Air Force until this morning everywhere I went I saw nothing but Air Force and I got that feeling you get when everyone is on the same side. I mean all 4 forums were Air Florce. I let it ride knowing I should buy it back. Still Rutgers is the game that pissed me off though.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

yeah, me too. Rutgers costs me over 2/3s of my ML plays. I liked the play so much i honestly blinded myself to the possibility a 'cuse upset.

looking back i wish i hadnt been so high on that matchup. I just thought the line'd be a lot higher, so i feel in love. i had capped better games during the week, but kept this my biggest side play. im a dummy.

[jackpot269]

Today sux wal we well get the books next week !!!!!!!!!!

[wal66]

My Saturdays the past couple of weeks haven't been better than .500 as far as posted plays go but I've had extremely good mid-week plays.

Yeah Jackpot I am promising myself a strong final 2 weeks.

[wal66]

2-4 today 5-4 for the week.

[HoulihansTX]

2-4 today 5-4 for the week.

I broke even. Bad week. All the obvious plays cashed. The big favs cashed, and all the totals went the way of public action. I think the Books took a beating.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

hey wal, i wanna show you something:

this is from my thread this week.
( http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-dankness.html )

{{{{ some lines im loving right away as potential 10 pt tease plays:

*Vir +29.5
N.ill +9
IU +13.5
Iowa St +23
Maryland +27.5
Vandy +26.5
KSU +25
Rice +16
Duke +27
Mich +22
Kansas +37
*FAU +26.5
*New mex state +41.5
*Wash st +40

*games in which Wal's program gave value to the original line with these big dogs, so I'm thinking adding 10 pts could be $$$$$
}}}}}}

As you can see, these faired pretty well today ( 11 - 1 with 3 still in question). And they have been the last few weeks, since ive been paying attention. Your program agreed with a lot of these. what do you think the potential for profit could be with taking these plays, ranking them on certainty through capping, and then playing numerous combinations of these in the 3 team 10 pt teasers with the higher ranked teams played in more of the combinations.

EXAMPLE

teased lines rankings (1. T-A 2. T-3 3. T-4 , etc)
rank top 10 teaser lines

playing 20 teasers
teaser:
1 : T1, T2, T6
2: T1, T3, T5
3. T1, T4, T7
4. T2, T4, T6
5. T2, T5, T8
etc.

or something to the sort to mathimatically reduce risk and keep teasers in play.

I know this seems a little nutty, but i was just pondering it and wanted your input.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

I broke even. Bad week. All the obvious plays cashed. The big favs cashed, and all the totals went the way of public action. I think the Books took a beating.

rough week,hou.

next week will be a good week.

thanks for the totals. 3 - 1 with 100 on each, its beatiful. sure do appreciate it

[HoulihansTX]

rough week,hou. next week will be a good week. thanks for the totals. 3 - 1 with 100 on each, its beatiful. sure do appreciate it

You have Arizona ML??
Good call, Oregon is driving right now, but I like your chances.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

yeah, Arizona wasnt my biggest $$$ play, but it was my biggest moral victory play of the weekend. also +6. Wish arizona had gotten the ball first

[TheBetBuysDanK]

good 1st down.

hou, since youre on this thread: what do you think of my teaser idea above?

[TheBetBuysDanK]

phew....2nd OT. come on, wildcats!

sorry, wal. I'm not trying to hijack your thread.

althouughhhh, it is kinda nice in here. I could really make myself at home.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

ouch. I had 'em 3:1 +6:ML but, still. I really wanted that win. sucky way to end a only marginally profitable day.

[LINE-crush-ER]

I said earlier in this thread that I only needed 12 straight wins to equal last years winning percentage, I went on to say with that in mind I was only playing my most solid of selections. So right after saying that what is the very first game I post? Colorado. I guess I am contradicting myself. I can’t change what I do. I play the games I find value in and that will have to continue regardless what my final percentage turns out to be.


Florida Atlantic: Based on the strength of schedule Troy has fared better given their 7-3 record compared to Florida Atlantics 3-6 record. Against common opponents Troy averages 5 more ppg on offense and allow 15 fewer ppg. Everything points to Troy steam rolling Florida Atlantic here. Florida Atlantic allows an average of 40.4 ppg on the road this season. I can’t give you one solid reason as to why I am putting money on Florida Atlantic this weekend and I would advise anyone that asks to avoid this game or play it safe with Troy. I’ll not insult anyone’s intelligence with reasons for this decision and just leave it as, it’s my play.

Penn St: Actually Michigan St has faced tougher opponents this season according to the strength of schedule. Playing against common against common opponents Penn St scored an average of 25 ppg and Michigan St averaged score was 24 ppg. On defense against those same teams Penn St allowed 10 ppg and Michigan St allowed an average of 21 ppg so Penn St does show an advantage there. Michigan St is a live home dog of 3 points or less and I know a lot of people like to blindly play the home team in that situation but as always I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. I have a program predicted score of 26-21 Penn St and I like that score here and am basing my play on that.

Rutgers: Syracuse is bad. Rutgers is not as bad. I like Rutgers here. Actually Syracuse does deserve some respect seeing how difficult their strength of schedule actually was this season. The teams didn’t look that tough but according to their ratings they were better than what Rutgers faced by a good margin. Syracuse just allows too many mistakes in the form of turnovers and Rutgers doesn’t make a lot of mistakes like that and definitely capitalize on those that do. I rated Rutgers as winning this game by 13-17 points so comparing that to the line I have plenty of value here and that equates into a play.

Iowa St: Wow, another high risk play that doesn’t have much of an upside and plenty of downside. Missouri might be the better team but the games I have actually seen this season they aren’t a really good team. I have no way of knowing what the expectations were for Iowa St this season but I have to believe they have performed a little better than many would have thought. Both teams are bowl eligible and maybe that is enough but I am hoping there is some fight in Iowa St to improve and gain access to a little better bowl game. My program says Missouri should win this game by 7 points and I will trust it stays less than twice that amount.

Nebraska: Now I am not laying this large of a number based on Nebraska’s stellar offense because they don’t have one. While capable of scoring what they do excel at this season is defense. I am laying this many points based on that defense. Looking for a huge effort here and to be honest will need a Kansas St turnover or two probably to cover but I’m willing to gamble on this happening and Nebraska covering the number. This is more a Wal play than a program play just so we’re clear here.

Air Force: Strictly a numbers play here. Average score against common opponents this season, Air Force 28-13 and BYU 37-22. Average score against schedule this season Air Force 29-15 on the road and BYU 35-22 at home. Average score between the two teams over the past 10 meetings Air Force 27 BYU 34. Top to bottom and side to side everything points to Air Force not winning this game but keeping it within the number.


Well that’s the card this week. Nothing about this card is easy money. In fact this is more of a high risk card than I have had all season.


Plays:

Florida Atlantic +16*

Penn St -3*

Rutgers -9.5*

Iowa St +15.5*

Nebraska -16.5*

Air Force +10*

Hey man
College football just isnt making sense anymore
I found a trend for my betting habits
Found out My Picks are horrible in games with a top 25 team
also was undefeated 9-0
WAC conference
MAC conference
I am not betting any more top 25 teams on or against until the bowl games
Looks like you kind of had the same losses
Penn state , BYU , Rutgers
Not sure how in the heck New Mexico can beat colorado state , New Mexico plays byu 24-19 Colorodo state got killed by air force , tcu killed byu
and Air force took TCu close yet BYU ran all over Air Force
will say had a much better night
Dropping stanford and oregon tonight after seeing the trend
glad I did
Air Force Did hurt My Profits
Hope you did ok
because you had Nebraska in a late game hope you had enough to throw at em
Taking my family to Disney for two weeks
so counting on you to make me some good picks
hopefully I will find some games in the wac and mac
I know Ive already got Nevada , Next week

[BigdaddyQH]

How do you drop games if you legitimately wager on them? I know of no book that allows people to drop games. Does this mean that you do not actually wager on these games until game time? Don't feel bad about the Air Force. Everyone in here except myself bit on them. It made all the sense in the world, except for one minor detail that everyone in here failed to notice. That being that the Air Force ALWAYS plays like caca against BYU. If people in here would have taken the time to properly reasearch the game, they would have seen that the Air Force was 0-5, both S/U and ATS in their past 5 games against BYU. So next year, when all of you are ready to jump on the Air Force bandwagon again, you will remember that they are now 0-6 A/U and ATS against BYU in their last 6 efforts. A perfe3ctexample of this Cardnial Rule of Gaming: "Either wager with a streak or do not wager at all." The reason why is simple. If you wager against a streak, you can lose and lose (as evidenced by the people in here who yearly lose on this wager), but if you wager on a streak, you can only lose once.

[Cougar Bait]

Chin up Wal...still a l long way to go, and you're a great capper. It's not like you went 0-6 or something. I know you expect more out of your Saturday than that. Rutgers was the only loss I was pissed about. I'll be here to check out your program lines when you post them.

[HoulihansTX]

How do you drop games if you legitimately wager on them? I know of no book that allows people to drop games. Does this mean that you do not actually wager on these games until game time? Don't feel bad about the Air Force. Everyone in here except myself bit on them. It made all the sense in the world, except for one minor detail that everyone in here failed to notice. That being that the Air Force ALWAYS plays like caca against BYU. If people in here would have taken the time to properly reasearch the game, they would have seen that the Air Force was 0-5, both S/U and ATS in their past 5 games against BYU. So next year, when all of you are ready to jump on the Air Force bandwagon again, you will remember that they are now 0-6 A/U and ATS against BYU in their last 6 efforts. A perfe3ctexample of this Cardnial Rule of Gaming: "Either wager with a streak or do not wager at all." The reason why is simple. If you wager against a streak, you can lose and lose (as evidenced by the people in here who yearly lose on this wager), but if you wager on a streak, you can only lose once.

All info you should share B4 the game goes final.

[BigdaddyQH]

I did, on several posts in here about people jumping on the Air Force, but no one took it to heart. Now remember, the rule does not state that you must wager ON the streak. It simply states to never wager AGAINST a streak. I took a pass on this game, though I was very temped to take the Air Force.