Non-Existant Morrison System
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MacAttack13SBR Wise Guy
- 10-04-09
- 839
#71Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#73hey all,
this is a great thread and very interesting system. i've been using the football version this season to good results, and it makes sense that this could also work for college. the logic behind this system is essentially what i would call "The Efficient Spread Hypothesis". has anyone looked into this for other sports with spreads, like nba basketball? it would seem to me that the same logic, perhaps with a slightly altered set of rules, could be applied there as well. basically its all about regression to the mean. If you believe vegas sets (for the most part) efficient spreads and adjusts the spread each week based on how teams have done the previous weeks, so after 3 losses straight up and ATS, the lines start getting inflated to where the teams are 'due' to cover. also, i believe the competitive nature of athletes and psychology of sports says that a team that has been consistenly getting crushed will have some pride and want to step up their play, at least enough to cover the inflating spreads.Comment -
DOCTOR XRestricted User
- 02-20-09
- 306
#74Good post. Using the same system, the first 2 plays for nba basketball are tonight, with New Jersey and the Knicks, since both teams have lost on SU/ATS the last 3 games. The system also looks to be working with an over/under system. The last 3 games, the Knicks have been Over, so I would think that within the next 3 games, they will be Under. I backtracked the system, and I liked the results as well. If a team as been Under for the past 3 games, I bet Over. Over for the past 3 games, I bet Under. It's working nice for Hockey, NCAAF, NBA, and NFL. I'm sure when college basketball starts next week, the same system will work as well. We shall see.Comment -
harrySBR Sharp
- 10-15-09
- 273
#75I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.
MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU
TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same
MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same
I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!Comment -
harrySBR Sharp
- 10-15-09
- 273
#76To be fair i didn't take into account playing the moneyline if they are favourites so that may make a bit of a difference, but this was a while back!Comment -
CoverthisjamSBR Rookie
- 11-02-09
- 4
#77chili-
interesting take applying this to O/U. personally, i'm going to stay cautious and observe for a while, as i'm not generally a big fan of over/under to begin with. one thing to consider - i think a key aspect that keeps this "efficient spread hypothesis" working is sports psychology and a team having pride in themselves and wanting to perform after being embarrased (i'll call this the "pride" or "professionalism" factor). the public has a tendency to overreact to teams that have 3 bad games in a row (defined by this system as 3 SU/ATS losses), and so vegas sets lines that play to this, but also the team wants to prove people wrong and that they don't suck as bad as everyone thinks they do. in my opinion, this "pride" or "professionalism" aspect does not have a correlation to hitting the O/U of a game, so using a system of 3 misses on the O/U is relying completely on vegas' "efficient" adjustment of games. there is also the potential that a team that has been under 3 games in a row plays a team that has been over several games, which could somehow offset or cancel out the o/u line. to me, the logic of applying this to o/u still makes sense, but i just don't yet feel as strongly about it as applying this to teams covering games. i'll be interested to see how it works out as you track it.Comment -
CoverthisjamSBR Rookie
- 11-02-09
- 4
#78I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.
MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU
TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same
MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same
I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
#79I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.
MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU
TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same
MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same
I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
#80Good post. Using the same system, the first 2 plays for nba basketball are tonight, with New Jersey and the Knicks, since both teams have lost on SU/ATS the last 3 games. The system also looks to be working with an over/under system. The last 3 games, the Knicks have been Over, so I would think that within the next 3 games, they will be Under. I backtracked the system, and I liked the results as well. If a team as been Under for the past 3 games, I bet Over. Over for the past 3 games, I bet Under. It's working nice for Hockey, NCAAF, NBA, and NFL. I'm sure when college basketball starts next week, the same system will work as well. We shall see.
You go Chilidog. I like the under on the Knicks.Comment -
MacAttack13SBR Wise Guy
- 10-04-09
- 839
#81Would it be possible for you to post your plays so we can all follow along with what you are playing? I love the OV / Un stuff myself.Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
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teeceeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-09
- 6298
#84from ESPN's college football schedule
Troy at Western Kentucky
UTEP at Tulane
Looks like these two are @ home, FWIW.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#85from ESPN's college football schedule
Troy at Western Kentucky
UTEP at Tulane
Looks like these two are @ home, FWIW.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#86
11/3 - NBA - Cleveland @ Washington OVER 194 - A
11/3 - NBA - Detroit @ Orlando OVER 189 - A
11/3 - NBA - Oklahoma City @ LA Lakes OVER 193.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - Boston @ Detroit OVER 5.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - NY Rangers @ Vancouver OVER 5.5 - A
Lines aren't up on the games just yet, so I'll edit when they are.Last edited by chilidog; 11-03-09, 01:07 PM.Comment -
CoverthisjamSBR Rookie
- 11-02-09
- 4
#87
UTEP at Tulane
Those are both B bets. It makes sense to not play them if there aren't many games left in the season, but the second reason seems to be the essence of the system, no? The reason a team becomes a system play is because they have done poorly, and you are betting that after 3 losses SU/ATS, they will cover one of their next three games (or more if you want to chase longer).
An interesting thing to note, two of the three B bets this week - Tulane and Rice - play each other next week. Not sure how to handle that one if they both miss.Last edited by Coverthisjam; 11-03-09, 02:21 PM.Comment -
MacAttack13SBR Wise Guy
- 10-04-09
- 839
#88Sure. I'm not playing these, just tracking them in Excel, so I'll start doing it here, too. There are no regular NBA/NHL games to play under the 3 loss method, both ATS/SU. With O/U, there are 5 games:
11/3 - NBA - Cleveland @ Washington OVER 194 - A
11/3 - NBA - Detroit @ Orlando OVER 189 - A
11/3 - NBA - Oklahoma City @ LA Lakes OVER 193.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - Boston @ Detroit OVER 5.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - NY Rangers @ Vancouver OVER 5.5 - A
Lines aren't up on the games just yet, so I'll edit when they are.
So now how do you do the "B" bets for the ones that lost? Do you use the home team or away team since unlike Baseball they do not play the same team BTB?.Comment -
inside edgeSBR High Roller
- 10-15-09
- 128
#89Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
#90
We havent lost a B bet all season in College and this is NOT going to be the first weekend.Comment -
MJT1212SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-16-09
- 5124
#91Do the college football bets for 11/7 involve buying any points? Or is this JM's other system?Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
#92no, we are using the same system that is the nfl. System is like 18 0 with nothing going to B bets. Though I got in late, chilidog is credited for the HW, lets win tomorrow people.Comment -
kmarinouofmSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-26-09
- 8437
#93western kentucky is a good play.. but i think utep covers.. just my two cents guysComment -
BlueJaysSBR Wise Guy
- 08-05-09
- 581
#94How many points should be bought for each of these 5 picks? Or if we don't buy points what spread do we choose?Comment -
blkngoldSBR Rookie
- 10-19-09
- 16
#95To all who play the JM college system.
I have been playing JM's system for the NHL and NBA this year, all plays have won............ There are great threads for both on the forum, you may want to take a look at them and get on board. Good luck to all this weekend.Comment -
Smails KidSBR Hustler
- 02-27-09
- 86
#96Alright, here we go. Slow week for the A bets - just 2 of them:
11/7 - NCAAF - Rice @ Southern Methodist - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Tulane @ Texas-El Paso - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Kansas @ Kansas State - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Colorado State @ UNLV - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Western Kentucky @ Troy State - B
The B bets were all winners ... 3-0 with two home dogs (Tul and WKU).Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#97Hey guys,
I've been moving this weekend, so I didn't get a chance to place my bets. I don't have my excel spreadsheet on my laptop, so I won't be able to fully update until tomorrow.Comment -
harrySBR Sharp
- 10-15-09
- 273
#99
Just kiddin man, your doing a great job! Hope your move went well!Comment -
palmer2712Restricted User
- 10-06-09
- 231
#100Good hits last night on B BetsComment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#102Sweet, we took the B betsI'm liking this system. Too bad college football is almost over. I saw a few teams that we will be playing this week, but as I said earlier, my excel data is on my main computer, and its still amongst a plethora of boxes, so I'll post this week's updates tomorrow, as well as the info I've been collecting on the over/under.
However, I'm going to be testing/playing the system for ncaa basketball as well, and we'll have games to play with them in a few weeks. As for the NBA system, I decided to wait until each team played 5 games before I started tracking with the system, that way I could get a feel out for the team. We'll have some hockey plays as well. All in all, we'll have plenty of picks to play.
The over/under system - I'm still undecided if I want to play it or not yet, but I will continue testing. There's just too many to play, and as somebody else pointed out, it does lose, of course. You would have go Labouchere the system, and make your money on the sheer volume of plays - but there's alot of them.Comment -
h00diniRestricted User
- 09-17-09
- 659
#103Sweet, we took the B betsI'm liking this system. Too bad college football is almost over. I saw a few teams that we will be playing this week, but as I said earlier, my excel data is on my main computer, and its still amongst a plethora of boxes, so I'll post this week's updates tomorrow, as well as the info I've been collecting on the over/under.
However, I'm going to be testing/playing the system for ncaa basketball as well, and we'll have games to play with them in a few weeks. As for the NBA system, I decided to wait until each team played 5 games before I started tracking with the system, that way I could get a feel out for the team. We'll have some hockey plays as well. All in all, we'll have plenty of picks to play.
The over/under system - I'm still undecided if I want to play it or not yet, but I will continue testing. There's just too many to play, and as somebody else pointed out, it does lose, of course. You would have go Labouchere the system, and make your money on the sheer volume of plays - but there's alot of them.Comment -
chilidogSBR Posting Legend
- 04-05-09
- 10305
#104I do play Morrison for nba and nhl, but this is a different system. morrison's system for nba/nhl is based on playing teams on opposing conferences. I'm applying his NFL system to college football, college basketball, nba, and nhl. It worked for college football, so now let's see for the remaining 3.Comment -
h00diniRestricted User
- 09-17-09
- 659
#105I do play Morrison for nba and nhl, but this is a different system. morrison's system for nba/nhl is based on playing teams on opposing conferences. I'm applying his NFL system to college football, college basketball, nba, and nhl. It worked for college football, so now let's see for the remaining 3.Comment
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