Non-Existant Morrison System

**MacAttack13** · 11-02-09, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Alright, here we go. Slow week for the A bets - just 2 of them:

11/7 - NCAAF - Rice @ Southern Methodist - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Tulane @ Texas-El Paso - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Kansas @ Kansas State - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Colorado State @ UNLV - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Western Kentucky @ Troy State - B

Are these the only games this week? Seems a little small but it's not the number of games it is the CASH in my pocket!!

**chilidog** · 11-02-09, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by MacAttack13

Are these the only games this week? Seems a little small but it's not the number of games it is the CASH in my pocket!!

Yah, those are the only games I found for this week.

**chilidog** · 11-02-09, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Coverthisjam

hey all,

this is a great thread and very interesting system. i've been using the football version this season to good results, and it makes sense that this could also work for college. the logic behind this system is essentially what i would call "The Efficient Spread Hypothesis". has anyone looked into this for other sports with spreads, like nba basketball? it would seem to me that the same logic, perhaps with a slightly altered set of rules, could be applied there as well. basically its all about regression to the mean. If you believe vegas sets (for the most part) efficient spreads and adjusts the spread each week based on how teams have done the previous weeks, so after 3 losses straight up and ATS, the lines start getting inflated to where the teams are 'due' to cover. also, i believe the competitive nature of athletes and psychology of sports says that a team that has been consistenly getting crushed will have some pride and want to step up their play, at least enough to cover the inflating spreads.

Good post. Using the same system, the first 2 plays for nba basketball are tonight, with New Jersey and the Knicks, since both teams have lost on SU/ATS the last 3 games. The system also looks to be working with an over/under system. The last 3 games, the Knicks have been Over, so I would think that within the next 3 games, they will be Under. I backtracked the system, and I liked the results as well. If a team as been Under for the past 3 games, I bet Over. Over for the past 3 games, I bet Under. It's working nice for Hockey, NCAAF, NBA, and NFL. I'm sure when college basketball starts next week, the same system will work as well. We shall see.

**DOCTOR X** · 11-02-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Good post. Using the same system, the first 2 plays for nba basketball are tonight, with New Jersey and the Knicks, since both teams have lost on SU/ATS the last 3 games. The system also looks to be working with an over/under system. The last 3 games, the Knicks have been Over, so I would think that within the next 3 games, they will be Under. I backtracked the system, and I liked the results as well. If a team as been Under for the past 3 games, I bet Over. Over for the past 3 games, I bet Under. It's working nice for Hockey, NCAAF, NBA, and NFL. I'm sure when college basketball starts next week, the same system will work as well. We shall see.

Headed to back test this system!! ATS!! BRB

**harry** · 11-02-09, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by DOCTOR X

Headed to back test this system!! ATS!! BRB

I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.

MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU

TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same

MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same

I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!

**harry** · 11-02-09, 01:29 PM

To be fair i didn't take into account playing the moneyline if they are favourites so that may make a bit of a difference, but this was a while back!

**Coverthisjam** · 11-02-09, 01:29 PM

chili-

interesting take applying this to O/U. personally, i'm going to stay cautious and observe for a while, as i'm not generally a big fan of over/under to begin with. one thing to consider - i think a key aspect that keeps this "efficient spread hypothesis" working is sports psychology and a team having pride in themselves and wanting to perform after being embarrased (i'll call this the "pride" or "professionalism" factor). the public has a tendency to overreact to teams that have 3 bad games in a row (defined by this system as 3 SU/ATS losses), and so vegas sets lines that play to this, but also the team wants to prove people wrong and that they don't suck as bad as everyone thinks they do. in my opinion, this "pride" or "professionalism" aspect does not have a correlation to hitting the O/U of a game, so using a system of 3 misses on the O/U is relying completely on vegas' "efficient" adjustment of games. there is also the potential that a team that has been under 3 games in a row plays a team that has been over several games, which could somehow offset or cancel out the o/u line. to me, the logic of applying this to o/u still makes sense, but i just don't yet feel as strongly about it as applying this to teams covering games. i'll be interested to see how it works out as you track it.

**Coverthisjam** · 11-02-09, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by harry

I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.

MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU

TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same

MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same

I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!

interesting stats harry, and certainly evidence to approach this with caution. it is quite possible that the system simply doesn't work for basketball. maybe, however, it still could work if the rules were adjusted a bit. what if the definition of a system play for NBA betting was changed to 4 or 5 consecutive SU and ATS losses. based on those numbers you gave above, only 1 team would have lost betting a system team defined as 5 SU/ATS losses using a 3-game chase. i'm not sure if enough teams would have qualified as system plays to have the winnings cover that 1 loss. just something to consider, that maybe it could still work if the definition of a system bet is modified.

**palmer2712** · 11-02-09, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by harry

I don't think it would work... I have looked into this before (08/09) and there were quite a few losses.

MEM Grizzlies had a 12 game loosing streak ATS and SU

TOR Raptors had a 7 game loosing streak ATS and SU
DET Pistons the same
WAS Wizards the same
LA Clippers the same
MEM Grizzlies the same

MIN Timberwolves had a 6 game loosing streak ATS and SU
OAK Thunder the same
LA Clippers the same

I don't know how many you would have won but i doubt it would cover the losses!

Great Follow up Harry. I do notice a trend in these teams who lost ATS and SU, they are mainly all under .500 teams. Maybe try this system in NBA with above .500 teams after 10 games into season. I do like the over/under idea as well.

**palmer2712** · 11-02-09, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Good post. Using the same system, the first 2 plays for nba basketball are tonight, with New Jersey and the Knicks, since both teams have lost on SU/ATS the last 3 games. The system also looks to be working with an over/under system. The last 3 games, the Knicks have been Over, so I would think that within the next 3 games, they will be Under. I backtracked the system, and I liked the results as well. If a team as been Under for the past 3 games, I bet Over. Over for the past 3 games, I bet Under. It's working nice for Hockey, NCAAF, NBA, and NFL. I'm sure when college basketball starts next week, the same system will work as well. We shall see.

You go Chilidog. I like the under on the Knicks.

**MacAttack13** · 11-02-09, 06:51 PM

Would it be possible for you to post your plays so we can all follow along with what you are playing? I love the OV / Un stuff myself.

**h00dini** · 11-02-09, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by DOCTOR X

Headed to back test this system!! ATS!! BRB

you go doc!!!!!!

**palmer2712** · 11-02-09, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by MacAttack13

Are these the only games this week? Seems a little small but it's not the number of games it is the CASH in my pocket!!

Damn, all bets are away this coming week. But what the hell, these college plays are hitting. Knock on wood

**teecee** · 11-02-09, 11:50 PM

from ESPN's college football schedule

Troy at Western Kentucky

UTEP at Tulane

Looks like these two are @ home, FWIW.

**chilidog** · 11-03-09, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by teecee

from ESPN's college football schedule

Troy at Western Kentucky

UTEP at Tulane

Looks like these two are @ home, FWIW.

You are right on this, but I chose not to include them, simply because of the small number of games left in the season, and with how poorly they have done. Technically, they are system plays, but Im not playing them.

**chilidog** · 11-03-09, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by MacAttack13

Would it be possible for you to post your plays so we can all follow along with what you are playing? I love the OV / Un stuff myself.

Sure. I'm not playing these, just tracking them in Excel, so I'll start doing it here, too. There are no regular NBA/NHL games to play under the 3 loss method, both ATS/SU. With O/U, there are 5 games:

11/3 - NBA - Cleveland @ Washington OVER 194 - A
11/3 - NBA - Detroit @ Orlando OVER 189 - A
11/3 - NBA - Oklahoma City @ LA Lakes OVER 193.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - Boston @ Detroit OVER 5.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - NY Rangers @ Vancouver OVER 5.5 - A

Lines aren't up on the games just yet, so I'll edit when they are.

**Coverthisjam** · 11-03-09, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

You are right on this, but I chose not to include them, simply because of the small number of games left in the season, and with how poorly they have done. Technically, they are system plays, but Im not playing them.

Troy at Western Kentucky

UTEP at Tulane

Those are both B bets. It makes sense to not play them if there aren't many games left in the season, but the second reason seems to be the essence of the system, no? The reason a team becomes a system play is because they have done poorly, and you are betting that after 3 losses SU/ATS, they will cover one of their next three games (or more if you want to chase longer).

An interesting thing to note, two of the three B bets this week - Tulane and Rice - play each other next week. Not sure how to handle that one if they both miss.

**MacAttack13** · 11-04-09, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Sure. I'm not playing these, just tracking them in Excel, so I'll start doing it here, too. There are no regular NBA/NHL games to play under the 3 loss method, both ATS/SU. With O/U, there are 5 games:

11/3 - NBA - Cleveland @ Washington OVER 194 - A
11/3 - NBA - Detroit @ Orlando OVER 189 - A
11/3 - NBA - Oklahoma City @ LA Lakes OVER 193.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - Boston @ Detroit OVER 5.5 - A
11/3 - NHL - NY Rangers @ Vancouver OVER 5.5 - A

Lines aren't up on the games just yet, so I'll edit when they are.

So now how do you do the "B" bets for the ones that lost? Do you use the home team or away team since unlike Baseball they do not play the same team BTB?.

**inside edge** · 11-04-09, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

You are right on this, but I chose not to include them, simply because of the small number of games left in the season, and with how poorly they have done. Technically, they are system plays, but Im not playing them.

I hope the system fails this week at least on Tulane as I have a rather large bet on UTEP my ratings have them favored by 13 which is about 6 points of the Vegas line.

**palmer2712** · 11-06-09, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

You are right on this, but I chose not to include them, simply because of the small number of games left in the season, and with how poorly they have done. Technically, they are system plays, but Im not playing them.

We havent lost a B bet all season in College and this is NOT going to be the first weekend.

**MJT1212** · 11-06-09, 09:21 PM

Do the college football bets for 11/7 involve buying any points? Or is this JM's other system?

**palmer2712** · 11-07-09, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by MJT1212

Do the college football bets for 11/7 involve buying any points? Or is this JM's other system?

no, we are using the same system that is the nfl. System is like 18 0 with nothing going to B bets. Though I got in late, chilidog is credited for the HW, lets win tomorrow people.

**kmarinouofm** · 11-07-09, 02:17 AM

western kentucky is a good play.. but i think utep covers.. just my two cents guys

**BlueJays** · 11-07-09, 09:47 AM

How many points should be bought for each of these 5 picks? Or if we don't buy points what spread do we choose?

**blkngold** · 11-07-09, 10:28 AM

To all who play the JM college system.
I have been playing JM's system for the NHL and NBA this year, all plays have won............ There are great threads for both on the forum, you may want to take a look at them and get on board. Good luck to all this weekend.

**Smails Kid** · 11-08-09, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Alright, here we go. Slow week for the A bets - just 2 of them:

11/7 - NCAAF - Rice @ Southern Methodist - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Tulane @ Texas-El Paso - B
11/7 - NCAAF - Kansas @ Kansas State - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Colorado State @ UNLV - A
11/7 - NCAAF - Western Kentucky @ Troy State - B

The B bets were all winners ... 3-0 with two home dogs (Tul and WKU).

**chilidog** · 11-08-09, 09:25 AM

Hey guys,

I've been moving this weekend, so I didn't get a chance to place my bets. I don't have my excel spreadsheet on my laptop, so I won't be able to fully update until tomorrow.

**h00dini** · 11-08-09, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Hey guys,

I've been moving this weekend, so I didn't get a chance to place my bets. I don't have my excel spreadsheet on my laptop, so I won't be able to fully update until tomorrow.

thanx chilidog

**harry** · 11-08-09, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by chilidog

Hey guys,

I've been moving this weekend, so I didn't get a chance to place my bets. I don't have my excel spreadsheet on my laptop, so I won't be able to fully update until tomorrow.

I wondered where the "b4 game update" was... thought you were getting lazy! lol

Just kiddin man, your doing a great job! Hope your move went well!

**palmer2712** · 11-08-09, 11:38 AM

Good hits last night on B Bets

**chilidog** · 11-08-09, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by BlueJays

How many points should be bought for each of these 5 picks? Or if we don't buy points what spread do we choose?

I already explained the system in the first few posts. Read.

**chilidog** · 11-08-09, 12:32 PM

Sweet, we took the B bets

I'm liking this system. Too bad college football is almost over. I saw a few teams that we will be playing this week, but as I said earlier, my excel data is on my main computer, and its still amongst a plethora of boxes, so I'll post this week's updates tomorrow, as well as the info I've been collecting on the over/under.

However, I'm going to be testing/playing the system for ncaa basketball as well, and we'll have games to play with them in a few weeks. As for the NBA system, I decided to wait until each team played 5 games before I started tracking with the system, that way I could get a feel out for the team. We'll have some hockey plays as well. All in all, we'll have plenty of picks to play.

The over/under system - I'm still undecided if I want to play it or not yet, but I will continue testing. There's just too many to play, and as somebody else pointed out, it does lose, of course. You would have go Labouchere the system, and make your money on the sheer volume of plays - but there's alot of them.

**h00dini** · 11-08-09, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

Sweet, we took the B bets

I'm liking this system. Too bad college football is almost over. I saw a few teams that we will be playing this week, but as I said earlier, my excel data is on my main computer, and its still amongst a plethora of boxes, so I'll post this week's updates tomorrow, as well as the info I've been collecting on the over/under.

However, I'm going to be testing/playing the system for ncaa basketball as well, and we'll have games to play with them in a few weeks. As for the NBA system, I decided to wait until each team played 5 games before I started tracking with the system, that way I could get a feel out for the team. We'll have some hockey plays as well. All in all, we'll have plenty of picks to play.

The over/under system - I'm still undecided if I want to play it or not yet, but I will continue testing. There's just too many to play, and as somebody else pointed out, it does lose, of course. You would have go Labouchere the system, and make your money on the sheer volume of plays - but there's alot of them.

do you not use morrison for NBA or NHL?

**chilidog** · 11-08-09, 06:41 PM

I do play Morrison for nba and nhl, but this is a different system. morrison's system for nba/nhl is based on playing teams on opposing conferences. I'm applying his NFL system to college football, college basketball, nba, and nhl. It worked for college football, so now let's see for the remaining 3.

**h00dini** · 11-08-09, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by chilidog

I do play Morrison for nba and nhl, but this is a different system. morrison's system for nba/nhl is based on playing teams on opposing conferences. I'm applying his NFL system to college football, college basketball, nba, and nhl. It worked for college football, so now let's see for the remaining 3.

lets go for it.