Thoughts on the M Tenn St vs Troy game? IN-GAME Discussion

**HoulihansTX** · 10-05-09, 09:55 PM

It opened at -4.5. That should tell you everything.

**Boddhissatva** · 10-05-09, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

It opened at -4.5. That should tell you everything.

Bet heavy on Troy?

**HoulihansTX** · 10-05-09, 10:22 PM

I would not touch it now, since I missed the boat on the -4.5. I'm all about value.

Troy is the better team, and has played stiffer comp. I just can't bet a line that has moved against me so far.

Troy or nothing.

**TWEETS** · 10-05-09, 10:47 PM

I like MTSU, looks like we might get 7 points by gametime.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-05-09, 11:52 PM

got some bad blood with the coaching situation , but got to say we love middle tenn state against north texas actually our biggest pick of the night , but that being said troy has given up more touch downs alost by double than they have scored , , but knowing a team like troy they are a television team like little oh uab is , just looking at it middle tennesee state looks like the bet , but for middle tenn state not beting up north texs no more than they did bothers me too much north txas is close to the worst team in the nation if not i would bet against memphis and north texas every week if given the chance

**iwantcougars** · 10-05-09, 11:58 PM

any idea on the total?

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-06-09, 12:03 AM

I like MTSU ML... They are going to shake up the world.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-06-09, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I like MTSU ML... They are going to shake up the world.

Louisiana Tech is my Underdog for the weeknight games. Nevada is piss poor to me.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-06-09, 12:28 AM

got to say anyone that lost to missouri is pretty bad

**Sidetracked** · 10-06-09, 12:36 AM

i think middle tenn is a solid pick taking 7

**Odraca** · 10-06-09, 06:55 AM

i think troys stats are inflated negatively due to the florida /rape.

take troy at home they have no prob passing tonight

**teaserpleaser** · 10-06-09, 07:56 AM

waiting for the o/u

**bookinwinners** · 10-06-09, 08:26 AM

I was hoping for 7.5 by game time

**mcbaseball10** · 10-06-09, 09:07 AM

Been following MTSU last couple of weeks. They have a dynamic quarterback in Dasher that can both throw and run extremely well. One reason I believe line has moved so much is Troy is something like 26-3 at home last 5 years. Think if it was at MTSU the line would be closer to a fg.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 09:28 AM

MTSU is the play here.......seems pretty simple to me. so that probably means it's wrong

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 09:36 AM

Middle Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Troy
Middle Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Troy
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Troy

**teaserpleaser** · 10-06-09, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by bookinwinners

I was hoping for 7.5 by game time

las vegas hilton 7.5 -110

**Boddhissatva** · 10-06-09, 10:31 AM

Damn...now I'm even more confused/torn than before.

Which teams has had tougher competition?

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 10:34 AM

keep in mind that troy also got beat up by Bowling Green....not just Florida.

I'm going Midd. Tenn St. +7.5 and under 56

**DennisT** · 10-06-09, 10:36 AM

Been over at the horse racing site for awhile waiting for things to sort out in football O9. Took Troy minus the 4 1/2. Troy should handle minus 7 easily. Best of luck however you play the game.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by DennisT

Been over at the horse racing site for awhile waiting for things to sort out in football O9. Took Troy minus the 4 1/2. Troy should handle minus 7 easily. Best of luck however you play the game.

Why so many people on Troy? can't figure this out, why the line would go from 4.5 to 7.5 and such a high percentage on Troy. WHAT AM I MISSING?

Teams seem pretty even if not an advantage for Midd. Tenn. St.

**CLASSIC ROCK** · 10-06-09, 10:41 AM

This is middle tenn best team since coach rick stockstill took over. I look for a straight up win.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-06-09, 10:46 AM

Haven't looked at this game yet, but line move looks a lot like last week's La. Tech movement on game day...

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 10:50 AM

I played a 2 Team/6 Point Teaser

MTSU +13
under 61.5

Bookmaker pays it out at even money.

**JayC** · 10-06-09, 11:05 AM

-Line Movement
-Televised
-@ Troy

All have me wary of going against Troy, but my gut thinks MTSU can keep it close. I may end up sitting this one out.

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:11 AM

Tuesday night football.

Where you get shaved points and the wrong team wins.

Gotta love it.

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

Tuesday night football.

Where you get shaved points and the wrong team wins.

Gotta love it.

Yep. If you know where most of the public is just fade them, because with only 1 game on tap the books are not going to lose.

Same thing in soccer. 1 game yesterday in the English Premier League, everyone on Manchester City and the over 2.5. Game ends up 1-1, huge win for the books.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 11:15 AM

Basically.....there is no reason in hell for Troy to be favored by more than a touchdown....WHY IS THIS SO? Can anyone explain. I'm locked in already with Midd. Tenn. St. but it's got me worried that the line has gone that high, when Troy really hasn't shown to be better than St. at all.

Is it just cause it's the only game on so everyone and their mother is taking the favorite who also happens to be a slightly bigger name and at home?

SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN!!!!!!

**stocker08** · 10-06-09, 11:21 AM

Its a home game seems to be the only reason. I don't know much about either team, but just looking at the schedules they have played, it sure looks like it is going to be a close game. I don't think im going to bet on this one.

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:21 AM

Dbldown11

If EVERYONE is on TROY..........and your on Midd. Tenn you should not have to worry. Tuesday night football is the night that people chase MNF to get set for the week and then............WHAMMO..........the book takes your cash and forces a re-deposit.

If your on Midd. Tenn you should feel good for the above reason.

**wal66** · 10-06-09, 11:22 AM

Take deep breaths Dbldown..........breath big guy. No need to hyperventilate just yet. Trust your work. Yesterday you had done the work on the game and your confidence was like stone. Even if you're wrong it's Tuesday got all week to get it back.

**moto_noob** · 10-06-09, 11:24 AM

going with mid. tenn. +7.

**teaserpleaser** · 10-06-09, 11:32 AM

over 55

**wal66** · 10-06-09, 11:32 AM

Bodd all I can tell you is I run a strength and stat based program for all games. According to my data Middle Tennessee St is -4.5. Now in order for me to consider a game for a play it has to meet a Minimum -3.5 which is higher standards but helps narrow the field some. Sinced this is a stat heavy prgram uneveningly matched games can and do skew the results. An example would be Troy playing Florida. Those game stats hurt Troy but on the flip of that their strength of schedule is significantly increased. Alot of give and take goes into it.

I just realized that was alot of blah blah blah...................

Middle tennessee St +whatever you can get with just a pinch of ML.