Good luck Pags..really like the Pac-10 games. Stayed away from the Mich St game so far, can't believe the line is 4 now.
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lb49ers,
glad you agree with the pac 10 plays...I don't blame you for laying of MSU at 4, am surprised with the line move too but I think people know more about the Forcier injury than they are letting on...Comment -
Pags,
Great stuff as usual. Thanks again for all your hard work. Always apreciate it.Comment -
dangerous one,
appreciate it sir...
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PAGS,great writeups as usual buddy,lets roll this weekComment -
well.............? its FridayComment -
Best of luck with the super $$$ 7 $$$Comment -
Great writeups as usual Pags, have a great weekend.Comment -
twentyonekid,
that's what I'm saying man...thanks...
Nativediver,
I know it...get here Saturday!...
KingJIM,
I believe it has already moved from +2.5 to -3 before Dr. Bob released it sir...GL
Joe Dogs,
KC,
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HI pags first time post in your thread.
Honestly thanks for all the info it helps people like me from Australia gain that little bit extra on games.
Am with you on SMU and CAL this week
BOL mate.Comment -
Pags, any thoughts on every other play on the board...the work you do for the plays you post aint enough...we need write ups on all games! We need to have juice on all games...please work thru the night...I'll check back early in the morning!
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Hey pags, I've been following your plays since week 1. This early in the season, I don't place too much of an emphasis on records and rely more on how the capper thinks. In particular, I look at the tools and information they use to evaluate the situation, the importance they place on specific statistics, to what extent do they value certain variables, and how much weight is placed on these factors in determining their final predictions. I also like to see if that particular capper has any biases or subjective beliefs that may alter their decision.
Although I use them quite often, if I have watched a team play (specifically football), I do not use statistics to JUSTIFY certain outcomes, as I am a situational capper and use my background in psychology to determine a team's mental toughness, motivation, and ultimately their potential and ability to perform. I don't really tail anyone's picks, however, I do like to hear another person's interpretation or analysis as that individual may have more knowledge of that specific team or conference. That being said, out of the three forums I visit, your weekly analysis is the only CFB thread I read and believe is worth my time IMHO.
I live in California and usually only place bets on teams I have watched play, so I try to allocate my time and experience towards the Pac-10. FWIW, I have been following Cal for over seven years, have numerous family members that are alumni, went to a UC, and am a huge Bears fan so keep that in mind. If I wasn't a fan I probably would have bet on Oregon, as last week had trap game written all over it but I am stubborn and rarely bet against my team (maybe a couple times a year, however, I did bet the under). I have watched every Cal vs. USC game since the year before the upset, 2003 I believe, and have a good feel for the coaches. I believe your assessment is right on, and the last line in your writeup sums it up perfectly. USC will obviously stack the box against the Bears, forcing Riley to beat them with his arm. With a freshman QB I assume USC will play to their strengths by relying on their defense, using the run game to keep Barkley out of pressure situations, resulting in a fairly conservative offense. I think it will be a close game, not sure if Cal will win but think it will be more of a possession/low scoring type of game decided by less than a TD and feel comfortable enough laying +4.5. Normally, losing a Stafon Johnson would be a devastating blow to a team but the level of talent on the roster of USC, especially at running back, is absolutely ridiculous.
I really liked Washington @ Notre Dame, with the latter coming off a very close road victory and the former losing a conference match. Finding matchups where the previous week resulted in the favorite winning a close one, and the dog losing their game is always crucial in college football as they are not as mentally tough as the pros. This is pretty much a contract year for Charlie Weiss and all the pressure is on Notre Dame to not lose, and Washington comes in with nothing TO lose, as they are less than a year removed from losing every game on the schedule. I saw the line @ 13.5 and was going to wait it out hoping for the line to lean on the home fav to grab it at +14 without paying for a half point, but got too greedy and it is now at +12. With a two TD buffer, I think it is a good pick.
Stanford is a solid team, (remember this is coming from a Cal fan), and UCLA is talented but lacks experience. I think they'll keep it close and can see them winning it, but their recent success resulting in a spread less than a TD is too close for me. This makes me hesitant to place a bet on them with an undefeated record at stake on the road, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win it.
Miami is the only out of conference team I've seen plenty of, due to the national exposure of their brutal schedule early in the season. I think they definitely have the talent and ability to beat Oklahoma straight up. Their youth and lack of maturation as of yet (first half against VT last week) and not having too much knowledge of this year's OU team with Jones under center are the reasons I am not extremely confident in an outright win. Nonetheless, with Bradford out plus a TD spread, I'll take Miami to cover at home (+7).
Regardless of game outcomes, win/loss records, and trolls posting their immature comments, we appreciate all the effort, hard work, and time that you contribute to the community. I look forward to your future posts and good luck the rest of the season. CheersLast edited by TBoner101; 10-02-09, 11:58 PM.Comment -
Pags, love the writeups as usual. Best game is by far Michigan St., that line movement has bee insane, now up to 3.5. That's probably the best play on the board even though Forcier has been cleared to play.
Loved cal and UCLA as well, and your writeups makes me even more confident.
Only one that scares me is Miami, they were awful against Virginia Tech last week, but they should bounce back and ill be on them regardless.
BOL and let's kick ass tomorrow!Comment -
Hey Pags! I'm ready for another winning weekend! I'm with you on CAL, Washington, UCLA and Miami.
Thanks for all your hard work and know that it's much appreciated. BOL.Comment -
collie,
appreciate you posting, not sure I've ever had someone from Australia in my thread... GL mate
puggie,
how about you go clip your toenails and check back with me hmmmm, never.
TBoner101,
sharp stuff brother, I appreciate all of your thoughts...
icemantbi,
Crispybear,
let's do it brother...
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Like I said before Pags. Thanks for the fades you stiff.
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richkas,
I think the crack you have done has affected your brain...say no to drugs!Comment -
Pags man....you know I'm on your side...I just notice how everyone asks you for your opinion on every game on the board. It's not enough that you put in the work that you do....cracks me up!Comment -
ok puggie...
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Its my hope that all cappers generous to take the time to share thoughts, their takes on games, will find the power to allow the "crap" to roll off of them like water off a duck. To me the more information the better, I develop my own plays and then like to look at other's thoughts to further process those plays. I am currently sucking in contests because I am trying different things to improve my winning percentage on college sports which is abysmal.
Thank You to pags and all cappers who share writeups.Comment -
zubzub,
you're welcome...
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i got Vtech and Alabama in a ML parlay
what are your thoughts on those games?
do you see either team losing?Comment -
jsmith,
not a big fan of ML parlays especially in college football because anything can happen...I would be very surprised if either team lost but again I've seen stranger things happen...Comment -
pags, I'm tailing you.
Isn't it annoying when people put their own bolded picks in your thread? I mean..... seriously?Comment -
jello,
wise decision not to fade me this week...Comment -
Pags,
im not taking MSU at -3.5. The others, I'm going to wait until I'm sober. I'm much more risky with my money when I'm sober.Comment -
jello,
I'd say that's another wise decision on your part...Comment -
lolComment -
WOW!! Hit a nerve there Pags my boy!Richkas,
The last I heard your picks were so shitty that you were renting a cardboard box downtown and giving blood once a day just to stay afloat...glad to see that middle school education gets you as far as you've gotten...go ahead and fade my picks you little pussy, we will see who is laughing at the end of the year...I ever tell you that your picks remind me of a monkey ****ing a football?
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Best of luck to you Pags!Comment -
Geez yags, puggie was DEFENDING you. I believe it's called 'irony'. Are you getting enough sleep?Comment
It's a pleasure and a privilege to be on your team.
