Pags' Plays 10/4

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  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #176
    Washington +14

    Yeah, Washington ran out of gas last week where they played a motivated Stanford team who was catching them in a horrible spot after beating USC the week before but so what? I’ve watched Washington play now on four different occasions and can tell you that they are one of the most improved football teams in the entire country. Steve Sarkisian has instilled a new attitude in this program, every time I watch one of his press conferences I come away really impressed with what he has to say about what he and his players are trying to achieve. Expect an outstanding effort from Washington this week as they travel to play at Notre Dame. Most teams typically play very well at Notre Dame because many of the players on the opposing team grew up watching Notre Dame games and dreamed of what it would be like to play one day in the same stadium they grew up watching Notre Dame play in. Well the Washington players get that chance this week and there will be no one more fired up than QB Jake Locker, who means as much to his football team as does any player does to their team in the country. Locker is extremely versatile. One play he can run a zone read, the next a roll out pass, and he has also dramatically improved his pocket passing. I’ve said before there is nothing more difficult for an opposing team to defend against that a team with a mobile QB. Apparently everyone but Martin Blank has noticed, but Notre Dame’s defense is having some issues stopping opposing offenses and I think that trend continues this weekend. RB Christian Polk (3.8 ypc, 1 TD) is serviceable and WR’s James Johnson (19 rec, 2 TD), Jermaine Kearse (11 rec, 1 TD) and D’Andre Goodwin (8 rec) are all very capable. Notre Dame’s offense comes into this game with some major missing pieces. I mentioned last week how big it is that WR Michael Floyd isn’t in the line up and QB Jimmy Clausen is still battling turf toe which has affected not only his mobility but also his accuracy. RB Armando Allen should play this week, but he may not be able to kick it into high gear coming off an injury. As long as the Washington defense can focus on WR/RB Golden Tate they should have a shot to make this game very competitive, and competitive is exactly what I think they will be on Saturday.
    Comment
    • pags11
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-18-05
      • 12264

      #177
      Michigan State PK

      It’s been interesting following the line movement this week of this game as Michigan State was as much as a 2.5 point dog on Sunday and now they are favored by over a field goal. What this line movement tells me is that the injury to Michigan’s freshman QB Tate Forcier is more severe than many are leading on. This is especially important to note because Michigan will be traveling on the road for the first time this season and they are a team comprised of mainly freshman and sophomores. Most people look at Michigan State and they see the 1-3 record and will dismiss this team, but its games like this where a team’s back is against the wall where you will see the team’s best performance. You’ve read some about the Michigan State team feeling disrespected by Michigan and I think that is part of why you will see MSU’s best effort, hell MSU practiced on a Sunday night which is very rare for most programs to do. I’ve also read that MSU has a clock in the athletic department that counts down the days, hours and minutes leading up to the Michigan game. Michigan’s biggest rival is Ohio State, not Michigan. I’ve read that MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio is going to let Kirk Cousins start, although Keith Nichol will play. I’m not a big fan of the two QB system but fortunately for MSU they have a handful of very underrated playmakers. RB’s Caulton Ray (4.3 ypc, 1 TD), Larry Caper (4.5 ypc, 2 TD) and Glenn Wiston (4.2 ypc) have all performed well so far this season. WR’s Blair White (23 rec, 5 TD), B.J. Cunningham (19 rec, 3 TD) and Mark Dell (11 rec, 1 TD) are all explosive pass catchers. The Michigan defense facing a team with these types of playmakers while playing on the road for the first time is going to get exposed even more than they did vs. Notre Dame and Indiana. I’m not sure the Michigan offense will be able to keep up in this game without Forcier being 100%. While RB Carlos Brown (8.4 ypc, 3 TD) and Brandon Minor (5.7 ypc, 2 TD) are talented veterans and QB Denard Robinson (6.2 ypc, 3 TD) runs well, Robinson has only completed 4 passes so far this season. If MSU can make Michigan one dimensional in this game they have a chance to create some real separation.
      Comment
      • pags11
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-18-05
        • 12264

        #178
        Miami FL +6.5

        Miami was beaten down last week in Blacksburg, no doubt about it. Va. Tech played well and I tip my cap to them. This week, though, you will see a different Miami team that will come out motivated to defend their home turf against national power Oklahoma. Much has been made about whether or not Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford was going to start, but I think Stoops made the right call going with the healthier QB Landry Jones. Jones has been impressive no doubt, but he will be making his first road start in what should be a hostile home environment for the “U”. Miami is still a very young football team, and as they showed last week sometimes they are going to lay an egg. I don’t see that happening this week as they will have a top ten ranked team come in and they’ve had to hear all week about how they got their asses kicked at Va. Tech. I don’t expect Miami QB Jacory Harris to play as poorly as he did last week, nor do I expect the Miami running game to get shut down. Look for Travis Benjamin to make a big play through a catch or on special teams which could ignite the crowd. Miami will focus first on defending the Oklahoma running game which is led by DeMarco Murray but I also expect Chris Brown to play a lot. I see some issues with the Oklahoma offensive line and also like the fact that the Miami defensive line is more healthy this week. I can’t pass up this type of line value in a game that means this much to Miami. As much respect as I have for Oklahoma I’ve got to take the points with the home team down in a hot, humid environment Oklahoma isn’t used to.
        Comment
        • pags11
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-18-05
          • 12264

          #179
          SMU +28

          Most of my handicapping buddies had the most issue with this particular play of mine this week and I know that they respect TCU’s program a lot and that they also don’t follow June Jone’s SMU program as closely as I do. TCU is fresh off an emotional win at Clemson, one in which they put themselves in a very good position to be a BCS Buster. They come back this week to play cross town little brother and while I know Gary Patterson is a terrific coach, I think he is going to have a tough time getting his team interested in this game. At worst I see TCU having a first quarter hangover and when you have a team built around defense and the running game if they give up a first quarter score it’s going to be very difficult for them to cover this number. This wager is only based slightly about going against TCU, because if you do that regularly you will end up in the poor house. This wager, rather, is about playing on an improved SMU squad that is extremely well coached and has a week off to prepare to boot. The main matchup that I feel SMU will have some success is exploiting the TCU secondary. TCU’s run defense is as good as any in the country but because of their aggressive style they constantly leave their defensive backs on islands. The SMU receiving corps has two very talented receivers, whom Jones has said are as good as any he’s coached at any level. WR Emmanuel Sanders (35 rec, 1 TD) is a tremendously talented WR and also doubles as a return man. WR Aldrick Robinson (11 TD ’08) battled through injury earlier in the year and is now finally fully healthy and should also play an important role in this game. It will be imperative that SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell make good decisions with the football this week to allow his team to keep drives alive. Also SMU will still have to show the running game and they finally have found one in Shawnbery McNeal (5.0 ypc, 2 TD). Jones is particularly famous for the way he uses shovel passes as runs. SMU’s run defense has improved this season which will be key for them in matching up with TCU’s running game. Dalton threw a lot last week and I look for Patterson to try and re-establish the running game which could play into SMU’s favor, allowing them to stay within the four TD spread. If SMU can contain RB Joseph Turner and limit big plays through the air by Jeremy Kerley they have a shot to do so on Saturday.
          Comment
          • clowncar
            SBR High Roller
            • 09-25-08
            • 227

            #180
            Nice read as always.

            best of luck , pags11
            Comment
            • pags11
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-18-05
              • 12264

              #181
              clowncar,

              thank you my handicapping brother...
              Comment
              • KingKing
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-29-09
                • 408

                #182
                thanks for the nice writeups pags! pulled trigger on UCLA..most likely pull trigger on more of these gems...

                best of luck..............
                Comment
                • pags11
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-18-05
                  • 12264

                  #183
                  appreciate it kingking...
                  Comment
                  • looseonthelead
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 08-26-09
                    • 9

                    #184
                    Great stuff as always and much appreciated. GL my man.
                    Comment
                    • stevek173
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 03-29-08
                      • 27598

                      #185
                      Great writeups Pags, I'm just starting to really get involved here on the site and am learning a lot from your perspectives. TY.
                      Comment
                      • darkenergy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-08-09
                        • 4013

                        #186
                        GL this week pag, I booked michigan state earlier @ pick, feel good about this play already.
                        Comment
                        • AdaBarber
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-05-08
                          • 4424

                          #187
                          I am with you on Vandy, Washington, G. Tech, and Cal.
                          Comment
                          • AdaBarber
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-05-08
                            • 4424

                            #188
                            I also like SMU.
                            Comment
                            • AdaBarber
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-05-08
                              • 4424

                              #189
                              And Michigan State.
                              Comment
                              • Cougar Bait
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-04-07
                                • 18282

                                #190
                                Nice write-up on SMU...there were key points there that I didn't have information on...Also...a great point in that MSU/Michigan write-up is that clock in the athletic dept. That tells you right there how pumped they will be...hopefully their play on the field makes us money this week. Love that Winston kid. I hope we see a lot of him Saturday. Glad we are on some games this week. Let's dominate.
                                Comment
                                • morrow
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 10-05-07
                                  • 22

                                  #191
                                  I watch this thread as well as others almost daily as a part of my information gathering. Although I do not post my picks, as I do this for myself, I respect all the others to put in the same work I do. What I don't respect is those who take the easy way out and follow others then bash them. A show of respect for Pags, of whom I do not know and have posted some general information opposing some of his post, I am placing a 1 unit play on each of his post this week w/o any explaination. Any winnings this week will go to a local charity or, as a friend our football community does at Xmas each year, walks up to a needy person each year and hands them an envelope and walks off. I do my own work but respect others. If you think you know it all you probably know nothing. GL and I appreciate all the Cappers here.

                                  Morrow
                                  Comment
                                  • Flaghunter
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 11-12-08
                                    • 101

                                    #192
                                    Pags, Nice work. After reading your Miami thought's I will go your way on them. I also enjoy watching
                                    Okla football, with the large DEf. line and Ofs. line that their QB stands behind. Miami is looking better than before and yes your right the took a bad loss in VA last week. I will be glued to this game for sure. SMU was a pick from the start, will be with you on Gtech Washington,Cal. BOL this weekend and thanks for your work...Peace..
                                    Comment
                                    • bypp
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-05-08
                                      • 664

                                      #193
                                      Great writeups as always. Looking forward to a great week this week pags. Best of luck!!
                                      Comment
                                      • StogieMan
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 10-01-09
                                        • 4

                                        #194
                                        Like the write-ups pags. I have locked in on some of your games, won't be one of those that is ridiculing if it doesn't work out, it's gamblin'....You obviously do your homework.
                                        One question: When you list your picks(Play number one: two: , etc) is that order of your confidence on those picks? Let's get this shit!
                                        Comment
                                        • demize21
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-03-08
                                          • 3541

                                          #195
                                          great write ups as usual Pags let get em again this weekend with you as usual, this is when the real paper starts getting made!!!!
                                          Comment
                                          • Hognation
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 10-02-09
                                            • 4

                                            #196
                                            Pags,
                                            What do you think about Michigan St at -3?

                                            thanks,
                                            HN
                                            Comment
                                            • pokernut9999
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 07-25-07
                                              • 12757

                                              #197
                                              Good luck Pags
                                              Comment
                                              • nevadaside
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-20-06
                                                • 1263

                                                #198
                                                I smell one of those 7-0 weeks comin!!!

                                                Comment
                                                • Smails Kid
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 02-27-09
                                                  • 86

                                                  #199
                                                  Pags --- good stuff on the write-ups, as usual ... much luck to you this weekend with your plays, and I'm looking forward to the moves of conference top-dogs and pretenders Saturday
                                                  Comment
                                                  • taurus
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 08-11-05
                                                    • 206

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by morrow
                                                    I watch this thread as well as others almost daily as a part of my information gathering. Although I do not post my picks, as I do this for myself, I respect all the others to put in the same work I do. What I don't respect is those who take the easy way out and follow others then bash them. A show of respect for Pags, of whom I do not know and have posted some general information opposing some of his post, I am placing a 1 unit play on each of his post this week w/o any explaination. Any winnings this week will go to a local charity or, as a friend our football community does at Xmas each year, walks up to a needy person each year and hands them an envelope and walks off. I do my own work but respect others. If you think you know it all you probably know nothing. GL and I appreciate all the Cappers here.

                                                    Morrow
                                                    we don't see many posts like this on sports forums, and I thank you for taking the time to put your thoughts down.
                                                    And I think your local charity will be a winner this week too. Or at least, we ALL hope so.
                                                    GL and GL with your own plays.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dbldown11
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 08-17-06
                                                      • 3605

                                                      #201
                                                      Hey Pags11 you gonna have a write up for the Army play? Just curious cause I'm on Tulane so wanted to see the game from another point of view
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ToneLoc88
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 09-19-09
                                                        • 22

                                                        #202
                                                        Pags,

                                                        Still confident about Mich St. at -3 1/2?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pags11
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-18-05
                                                          • 12264

                                                          #203
                                                          looseonthelead,

                                                          stevek173,

                                                          appreciate you saying so...

                                                          darkenergy,


                                                          AdaBarber,

                                                          glad we will be on all of those together...

                                                          Cougar Bait,

                                                          great thoughts...GL bro...

                                                          morrow,

                                                          very noble of you sir...

                                                          Flaghunter,

                                                          good thoughts my friend...

                                                          bypp,


                                                          StogieMan,

                                                          appreciate your post...I just post my plays in order of how they are matched at matchbook...

                                                          demize21,

                                                          that's what I'm talking about!

                                                          Hognation,

                                                          I recommend MSU only up to 2.5...

                                                          pokernut9999,

                                                          nevadaside,
                                                          oh man that would be awesome...
                                                          Smails Kid,


                                                          taurus,

                                                          my friend good to have you in the thread again this week...

                                                          Dbldown11,

                                                          dude I'm still bitter about Steelman getting hurt of the second quarter of last week's game...I don't even want to think about an Army game right now...

                                                          ToneLoc88,

                                                          not as much no...it has crossed 3, a key number...2.5 or less I would recommend it...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dbldown11
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-17-06
                                                            • 3605

                                                            #204
                                                            haha that's cool, but I thought I saw they were one of your picks this week....I could just be wrong. Deffinately wouldnt be a first
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pags11
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-05
                                                              • 12264

                                                              #205
                                                              dbldown,

                                                              nope, was on them last week not this week...GL...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ToneLoc88
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 09-19-09
                                                                • 22

                                                                #206
                                                                Dbldown,

                                                                I think you confused Riggs' picks for Pags. Riggs had Army as one of his picks and was asking Pags for his thoughts. For what it's worth, I recently graduated from Tulane Law and watched an awful Tulane team for 3 years that seems to be getting worse. I will be on Army pretty heavy. Tulane has very few athletes and it is their first game on the road after 3 at the superdome. It's also a noon game and I really don't see them having much motivation this week. It took them awhile just to get control against McNeese St. and Army is a much better team than that.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pags11
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-18-05
                                                                  • 12264

                                                                  #207
                                                                  toneloc,

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • oda11
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-05-09
                                                                    • 3250

                                                                    #208
                                                                    pags, any leans on the games tonight?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • taurus
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 08-11-05
                                                                      • 206

                                                                      #209
                                                                      as u know, pags, I like to be on all of them.
                                                                      I'm happy for you in getting two great lines with Wash and MSU.
                                                                      I think I can go with Wash, but with that elevation beyond field goal in the Michigan game, it looks like I'll be on the other 6 and I'll sit out the game in East Lansing.

                                                                      Wishing you a BIG day.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • pags11
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 08-18-05
                                                                        • 12264

                                                                        #210
                                                                        oda,

                                                                        I would have considered Louisville at 7.5 or more for a 1/4 unit...considered being the key word...my advice is to sit back and enjoy tonight's games...

                                                                        taurus,

                                                                        agree with you sitting the MSU game out at the current line...glad we will be on the other six together...I always appreciate your support, it means a great deal to me...
                                                                        Comment
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