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What a backdoor win for Houston…LFG!
I truly feel for anyone who had Louisiana. Had the game covered for 59 minutes and 40 seconds.Comment -
Jeez that roughing the passer call on WF last TD drive there was very suspect. Maybe mizzou can get us a back door?Comment -
22/23 RECORD: 9-6 (60.0%)
+$1,100
GAME #16
HAWAII BOWL - Middle Tennessee vs San Diego St
Pick: MIDDLE TENNESSEE +7, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
After looking through multiple sources, I cant find any info on any key players missing this game. I guess that makes sense, who is missing out on a free trip to Hawaii?? MTSU comes in winning 3 straight and 4 of 5 to make themselves eligible for this game. Really no big wins in there, but they kept FAU out of bowl season. They are decent enough offensively, as they have 5 year senior Cunningham behind center. I remember last year he was incredibly disappointed he missed the Bahamas Bowl due to injury, and stated his reason for returning was to win a bowl game, well heres your chance. At RB, Frank Peasant didnt have any monster games, but was consistent at 4.5 yards per carry. They do have a big line, and Im
hoping they can keep some of these upfront guys for SDSU out of the backfield all game.
MTSU isnt a great defensive team, especially against the run. Luckily they play SDSU who cant move the ball on the ground at all. In fact, the Aztecs dont even have a 400 yard rusher, and several high volume rushers in their rush attack average less then 4 per carry. Mayden is ok behind the center, but rarely does anything spectacular. They want it to be a possession, grind it out type game, and I see MTSU getting enough points to keep this game in single digits. Outside of a win over San Jose St and a 3 point win over Toledo early on, nothing too impressive on their schedule. Definitely considered a down year for Brady Hoke’s squad.Comment -
Reg, Good Luck.
I'll chime in w/ a few personal insights:
1) I gained great respect for MTSU when they went to Coral Gables and blew out the Canes. They ran the fly routes and did not give a fk.
2) One obvious difference for Aztecs 2021 vs 2022 is the departure of K/P phenom Ariaza. He really was that good. Guy could flip the field, Aztecs didn't have that weapon this.
Good Luck. And Happy Holidays.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Thanks for the insight Chucky! Ya, that game at Miami was one of the more surprising games of the season….it completely derailed Miami’s season, who seemed to be on the right trajectory. I had this game capped at -3.5/-4 for SDSU…..a TD favorite feels too high here. MTSU went to a very similar destination last year (Bahamas) where distractions are probably greater and won as a double digit dog. Would not be surprised in the least if they cone away with a W. They have to keep Cunningham clean though to have a shot.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you as well.Comment -
2-6..-$690
mtsu. +7.. -110
Need to get on a winning streak!!Comment -
Well couldnt have gotten off to a worse start!! A fake punt for 30 yard run leading to a TD and a 75 yard td on 3rd and long. Ive gotten off to sh!t starts in probably 14 of the 16 games so far. Nothing ever easy lolComment -
Had Wake and Mid Tenn and suspected you'd have the same. THat was crazy. MT was getting curb stomped and looked like the freshman team vs the varsity, but they hung in there. I read somewhere they have something like 13 starters in their 5th-6th season. That matters!
As for Wake....got really nice value with same game parlays:
Wake ML, Hartman 250 (+130)
Wake ML, Hartman 250, Perry 75 receiving (+205). I was thinking if Wake won then those numbers would hit easily, but Hartman actually had 249 with the lead late at 20-17 and managed to get what I needed on that last drive
Unreal brother...ride that streak. Merry ChristmasComment -
Well done Fred. I actually put another $300 on MTSU at +22.5 when they were down 14-0 in the 1st and SDSU was driving again. Loved how this played out.
Merry Christmas brother!Comment -
Good call on MTSU.Comment -
And the PAC-12 wants San Diego St
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Merry Christmas all!!
Maybe Santa bring us more winnersComment -
New Mexico State/Bowling Green Over 48.5 is my 2nd highest play so far after Fresno.
A fast track in Ford Field will see NMS roll out the triple option on BG and their "10th ranked in the MAC" run defense. BG also throws it all over and should match scores pretty well. I see something like 34-27Comment -
22/23 RECORD: 10-6 (62.5%)
+$1,600
GAME #17
MOTOR CITY BOWL - New Mexico St vs Bowling Green
Pick: BOWLING GREEN -3.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Hope you all had a Merry Christmas! Definitely not the most appealing game on the Bowl schedule, maybe the worst in fact! Bowling Green had some gross blowout losses along the way (UCLA, Miss St, Buffalo, Kent St, Ohio) but some really solid wins against Marshall, Miami OH and Toledo. Loeffler seems to getting this program back on track, getting them to first bowl game since 2015. Matt McDonald has a really nice passer rating, with a solid TD/INT rate. They struggle mightily to move the ball on the ground, but NMST cant stop the run, so maybe they find some gaps here.
Talk about a joke of a schedule, look at the Aggies. Only win against a bowl eligible team was Liberty, who was in the midst of their tailspin. They beat 2 FBS schools and arguably the 3 worst FCS schools. They run that gimmicky option, which the Falcons have had a month to prep for. Jerry Kill has done an amazing job with New Mex St, as theyve only won more then 3 games in a season once since 2011 before his arrival this year. BG is just a quick hour drive up I75 from Detroit, in MAC country, they will certainly have the majority of the fans.
My only mistake was not locking this in last night at -3Last edited by Regul8er; 12-26-22, 11:09 AM.Comment -
GL today! I'm really motivated by both teams next to last game. NMS hung 49 on Liberty and I'd say Liberty's defense is atleast top 40. BG won on the road at Toledo 42-35 in their next to last game. I'm really hoping CFN & I are thinking alike? CFN has BG winning 34-30. I withdrew $500 from my Bovada account and put $480 (big for me) on Over 48 (-120). Took me over a month of grinding at poker on there so hate to blow it on 1 game, but sometimes you have to take a shot
Last 10 Detroit bowls avg 56.7 per game (7-3 Over 48)Last edited by Fred The Hammer; 12-26-22, 12:36 PM.Comment -
BG is hit or miss. Ive watched them a bunch. They have some games where their offense blows, even vs bad defenses IE gm vs Buffalo. Matt Macdonald is….meh.Comment -
Over is cooked with the QB knocked out. BG is going to stick with a more limited gameplan. Oh well. Shit happens.Comment -
Ya McDonald going out hurt. Always expect something unforeseen to happen from time to time.Comment -
Both teams are beyond awful. Neither team belongs in a bowl. BG coach blows. He was run out of every big program he coached for.Comment -
Ya, BG QB taken out very early on a dirty play ruined this one. If I were a Sr on the BG team I would've deliberately injured the prick who made that hit out of bounds.
I digress, Bowling Green's defense was terrible on the final drive, as NMSU went 4/4 on 3rd down. Including a pair of QB scrambles on 3rd and long. Though we'd have needed a TD +2pt conversion just to get a push! BG fumbling inside the 10 didn't help much either.
Oh well, on to the next one!Comment -
22/23 RECORD: 10-7 (58.8%)
+$1,050
GAME #18
CAMELLIA BOWL - Georgia Southern vs Buffalo
Pick: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -4.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Interesting storyline here as Kyle Vantrease faces off against Buffalo, where he played for 4 seasons. Clay Helton came in, dumped the option offense, and immediately got this offense rolling, ranking in the top 20% nationally in points per game. I really like the backfield dual for the Eagles with White and Green, as they both averaged 5.5 yards per carry. My only worry is defensively, GA Southern gives up big plays. They are battle tested, as they played a tough Sun Belt conference schedule, with South Alabama and Louisiana being the cross over games. Wins over James Madison and App St and early at Nebraska helped them reach bowl eligibility.
I rank Sun Belt well above C-USA and MAC and will ride a middle Sun Belt team against a middle MAC team any day. Buffalo got off to a hot start but sputtered late losing 3 of 4. The 3 losses were all to non bowl teams and the lone win was by 1 vs Akron, ughh. Washington and Henderson are both sitting this one out with injuries in the backfield, itll be hard to replace 1200 all purpose yards here. Also, Gassett, their 3rd leading receiver has hit the transfer portal and will be out as well. Buffalo isnt a great defensive team and gives up 5 per rush….I see them getting gashed here. If they fall behind in the 2nd half, you better believe GA Southern will be pounding it.Comment -
GAME #19
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL - Memphis vs Utah St
Pick: MEMPHIS -7, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
I actually changed my mind on this one after looking at the opt out list……Utah St is missing ALOT! We already know Bonner and Levi Williams are out for Utah St, as they both got hurt during the season. Cooper Legas has filled in pretty well, but hes certainly not specular. However, he doesnt have his safety valve in the backfield for this game. Calvin Tyler Jr has opted out with his 1000+ yards rushing. To make matters worse, Briggs is out too, who ran for 350. Makokona is now their featured back, who played less then 50 snaps all year. This coupled with a defense who gave up over 30 ppg and nearly 200 yards per game on the ground smells like trouble.
Memphis certainly has had their issues this year, losing 4 straight in the middle of the season, albeit, all against stout competition. But scoring is not their issue, scoring 35 ppg. As far as I can see, Memphis will have a full compliment of players for this game. Henigan is solid behind center, having 2 nice seasons in Memphis. He distributes the ball around, with 6 guys having over 300 yards receiving. They dont run it alot, but Northern Illinois transfer Ducker is more then capable in moving the chains, averaging 4.8 per carry. I see them scoring possibly 40 in this game, but do I see Utah St scoring anywhere near that with a skeleton crew? I dont.Comment -
GAME #20
BIRMINGHAM BOWL - Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina
Pick: COASTAL CAROLINA +7.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Again, Im siding with the Sun Belt. Coastal season unravelled the last 2 games getting blown out by JMU and Troy. Of course, McCall wasnt available on that JMU game. Weird situation as McCall has hit the transfer portal but is suiting up here. The sound clips make me feel like hes motivated here, and Im happy Coastal is letting him play as he helped put them on the map.
Ive liked ECU all year, and I think Ahlers is a gamer. The Pirates had bigger aspirations for the season, but they are coming in on their worst 4 game stretch of the season. Squeezed by BYU and Temple, lost a tight one to Cincy and got blown out by Houston. Both squads are at near full strength, the biggest missing piece is likely TE Jones for ECU. 41 catches for 413, and was huge in Mitchells success this season. ECU will give up chunk plays as I expect McCall will lead the offense to alot of points. I see them containing Ahlers and Mitchell just enough to keep this inside a touchdown.Comment -
These bowl games when you have 2 equally bad teams usually comes down to who has the better QB. Both these QBs really suck.
I wonder if its better to take the dog and points every game.Comment
