We are counting on you. Thanks for the posts.
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GAME #10
IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Eastern Michigan vs San Jose St
Pick: EASTERN MICHIGAN +4.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
This was a difficult cap for me, but I’m riding with the Eagles here. Schedule wise, not too much to hang their hat on….in fact, they didnt beat a bowl eligible team all season. On the flip side, they single handedly kept WMU, Kent and Ball St out of Bowl games. They come in playing their best football of the year, going 4-1 in their last 5, with a 3 point loss to Toledo. Powell returned from injury last 2 games, and racked up 581 yards, 6 TDs with 0 picks. They have a solid ground attack to balance out a decent offense.
EMUs biggest issue is on the defensive side, but luckily, San Jose St struggles to move the ball and score at times. Cordeiro has been solid, but the ground game has been less then impressive. SJSU has been sputtering a bit after a very solid September and October.
My biggest angle is weather. Its going to be chilly in Boise today, and this is what EMU is accustomed to! San Jose St only had one cold weathered game all year at Utah St and didnt look good. They played in Wyoming in early October on a warm night and avoided some of the other cold weather cities in this conference.Comment -
GAME #11
BOCA RATON BOWL - Liberty vs Toledo
Pick: TOLEDO -3.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Looks like its a MAC day for me. Im going to excuse Toledos late 2 game stretch losing to Bowling Green and Western Mich, as Finn was not available for these games. Gleason was over his head and had a heck of a time moving the ball these games. Finn brings another element by being able to move the chains with his legs. Outside of those 2 games and a September game at Ohio St, Toledo has a very nice season topped off with a MAC title. Also, the defensive metrics being a MAC school arent too bad.
This is more of a play against Liberty though. Hugh Freeze leaving for Auburn coupled with an inexcusable 3 game losing stretch vs UConn, V-Tech and New Mexico St is concerning. Dae Dae Hunter wasnt available in the back field for those games, really crippled the offense, as he was well on his way to maybe 1500 all purpose yards. Hell be out and the QB situation is a carousel. Toledo has got to have a huge motivational edge here. If Liberty falls to the mat, they may decide not to get up.Comment -
Strong start! I was on Liberty, but I'm gonna drop that game after reading your write-up. Was planning on tailing another bettor, who did not call out the RB injury. MAC games are often crazy as well. GL on both of your picks today!Comment -
Thanks CJ, best of luck on your games!
Not great start from EMU, but several of my sides have gotten off to bad starts. Hopefully the offense wakes up.Comment -
Powell having a very good 1h.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
First the 2 pt return then SJ can't get in at the 1. Then EM has 3rd/10 after the goalline stop from their own 4 and proceeds to go 96 yards. SJ safety went down early and maybe that messed up their secondary, but Powell is dicing them up. I saw how hot the QBs were and popped Over 62.5. Gonna be a bad deal for me if that doesn't atleast hitComment -
Dude thats unreal that you play every bowl and hit a nice %. Thats incredibly hard to do. I hit a great % for a few years on here, but probably skipped 40% of the bowls. I rarely play the playoffs that much either except for CLemson with Watson or that classic OU/Georgia Over. THe lines are sharp and everyone plays them.
Rooting for you to keep it up!!Comment -
He has been on a roll. I'm on Over 51.5 in that one. I'm thinking Liberty has had enough time to get over losing their coach, but we'll see?
SJ finally scored. 33-20. Put a free bet and a little extra on SJ +12.5 at halftime. If they can get Cordeiro outside the pocket then they might even win it SUComment -
Rain all night in BocaComment -
Great job handicapping these 2 games. Just got screwed with the Liberty back door cover. Keep up the great work.Comment -
22/23 RECORD: 7-4 (63.6%)
+$1,300
I understand you can’t win them all, but I hated losing that Toledo game. When they went ahead 14 in the 4th, I thought it was in the bag, especially since Liberty had issues moving the ball most of the game. The phantom PI on 2nd and 20 opened the floodgates for the backdoor cover. What can ya do except move on. I will get this back on track tonight.Comment -
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GAME #12
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Western Kentucky vs South Alabama
Pick: SOUTH ALABAMA -3.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Ill start by saying this once again…..Sun Belt > C-USA!! This has served me well so far with Troy over UTSA and Southern Miss over Rice. South Alabama has a dang good football team. Only 2 losses were by a combined 5 points to UCLA and Troy…not far off from a perfect season. They did luck out on scheduling by avoiding Coastal and App St….but took care of business against who they did play. Carter Bradley has been fantastic behind center, and La’Damian Webb rushed for over 1000, with over 5 yards per carry. They will be without their 3rd top WR. Defensively, they are stingy…..looking at boxes, alot of the points they did give up were in garbage time.
Some might say WKU offense is a different animal, but will they be tonight? #2 WR out, Top 2 TE options out, 2 starting OT’s out. Austin Reed might not enjoy the same level of comfort he did while feasting on the C-USA. Also, they are missing their #1 and #3 tacklers and their top safety, who was #6 in tackles tonight.
Sometimes you never know where these games will go, but this was an easy cap for me.Comment -
Reg, good writeups. I see what you mean.
Can't say much for Reed when he tries the transfer portal but comes back. Guess he couldn't find a bigger team where he could start. Makes sense b/c he's a modest talent.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Not sure this game coulda started any worse lolComment -
This is why even units are important. This would have been a 2 or 3 star play for me, but you gotta play the same unit every play, or you get barreled in quick. Positive spin, I can go to sleep now and not be up until 1230am lolComment -
I agree Captain Kirk Rambo. I've bet side and total every bowl game so far and I have not lost both YET. However, I've only won both in 3 games. However to that, I'm 1-2 in my live bets. You add in juice and I'm barely above water on the bowls. The live bets and/or putting more $$ on one game over another can be trouble. Suffice to say, I'm just going to go same amount every game. I like betting the big games and do far better record-wise so I will bump those up. But, I will bet every one of those for the exact same at more money on each. Right now just chillin around a win of 250.
My other suggestion is to look at how many of these games come down to the exact number where buying a 1/2 point will matter? I won't get greedy, but I always buy up on that alt line just so its in the small plus range (from here on out! as I do this in nearly every other sport). Hey, if you get buried on a close game oh well. It depends, in the pro's that half point on a large wager can be huge to land a push. Now, if I'm putting down 2 dimes on a game then I'm buying the half point. If I'm trying to win 250 I'm not paying that juice because I can snag back that 250 faster.
+6 in straight bets and -1 in live but then all that juice? And, I've even bought the half point many times too. Its just not worth it to me. Take tonite. Bought Jags down to 3. They get torched. How many games end up right on 3 anyway? By the time you get burned, you would've won more than that juice anyway. I do like that half point in the pro's though far more. Still a nice little profit though so far. Hope this helps someone! Peace!Last edited by hehfest; 12-22-22, 12:47 AM.Comment -
If I would have bought the extra half or point, it wouldnt have helped me in any of my 5 losses so far.
- UC from +2 to +3 still would have lost
- Florida got waxed
- SMU lost straight up at -4.5
- Toledo from -3.5 to -2.5 or -3 still wouls have lost
- South Alabama got waxed
Buying points thus far for me would have just eaten into my profits.Comment -
But I could not have been further off last night. I read Voisin was out for USA, and he ended up going for 153 and a TD…that even would have strengthened my case. Even with WKU’s guys missing on the offensive side, it didnt matter, looks like they could have named their score. Just one of those odd ball games.Comment -
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22/23 RECORD: 7-5 (58.3%)
+$750
GAME #13
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Baylor vs Air Force
Pick: AIR FORCE +3.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Looking to snap a 2 game skid and think I have the right side. Yet another impressive season with Calhoun at the helm. He will look to continue to his Bowl success, looking to win his 5th in 6 tries, including a few vs Power 5 schools. No secrets here, the Falcons have more yards on the ground then anyone, they will be pounding!! Baylor isnt great against the run, and have gotten torched in their season ending 3 game skid. Air Force will be at full force, no opt outs to read about.
Where will Baylor be mentally for this game? They had high hopes after wins at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, but took a bath in November. Rather then a New Years Bowl game, they have to settle with the Armed Forces Bowl. They have most skill guys available, outside of a few ball catchers, but they missing a ton of tackles, linemen and corners for this game. Im hopeful this resilient rushing attack wears down several second and third stringers.Comment -
1-5 - $670
Pick: AIR FORCE +3.5, -110
Risk $220 to Win $200Comment -
Air Force was strong!Comment -
22/23 RECORD: 8-5 (61.5%)
+$1,250
GAME #14
INDEPENDENCE BOWL - Louisiana vs Houston
Pick: HOUSTON -6, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Dont have much time for a writeup, sorry fellers. I was willing to take Houston at -7, Ill happily take -6 here. This a play against Louisiana, who struggled quite a bit this year. With Wooldridge out, Houston defense might be able to keep some points off the board. I except Tune to move the ball as they have all year and score enough. Houston appears to have a full roster availableComment -
weird line movement in the minutes before kickoff.Comment -
Holgerson rarely has his teams ready for bowlsComment -
GAME #15
GASPARILLA BOWL - Wake Forest vs Missouri
Pick: MISSOURI +3, -130
Risk $650 to Win $500Comment
