Hey man what do u think about memphis +10 at home vs ole miss? Miss barely beat vandy at home and then got stomped by florida on the road.. Memphis doesnt have much in the way of defense but they sure can score and it doesnt seem like ole miss is stopping anyone really (38 vs flor, 37 vs bama).. Dont see miss beating them by 10
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good luck on ur plays brother. any thoughts about the baylor/west virginia game? i feel like baylor will run up the score given what happened last year and how well they've been playing this year. like the over too but maybe im just being square lolComment -
Iloseagain, Actually I was leaning pretty heavily on ole miss but dont really like above 10....look at memphis SOS compared to ole miss....theyve literally played NOBODY....their stats are about equal yet ole miss has played much superior opponents, also last year ole miss dominated memphis with essentially the same team.....never watched them play yet either so....was looking for a team to tease with TEX A&M, earlier in week I had lsu circled to tease with A&M but that was at 7 now since grier went out its at 10 ish so Im a little concerned as UF defense is legit and it could be a close game what good ole les miles is known for.....still figuring out but ole miss or nothing for me but probably stay away from....
Coach Potato not really Baylor is just a team I never watch I dont like to watch blowouts so all I could tell you was off stats and their hard to decipher also as theyre another one of these teams known for their cupcake schedule.....No play for me for sure but Id be cautious on baylor as both coaches are very familiar with each other playing the last 3 years and WVU is 2-1.....
Iloseagain any input is welcome I dont care if other people come in here posting thoughts on games......
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NCAAF Week 7 Addition:
Nebraska +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
The dejected Nebraska, yes we play them this week because Minnesota is completely banged up. 11 injuries added to injury report since last weekend. Even when they werent ravaged with injuries their offense was struggling and non-cohesive. Theyve proven an inability to execute on offense despite having a huge coaching advantage (larry kill). Nebraska has kept every game very close and been competitive with all their opponents and have faced a much more difficult schedule than minnesota. Armstrongs biggest problem is himself and dealing with pressure, his timing falls apart and he doesnt know when to run and when to look down field. Minnesota is ranked 95th in sack % at 4.37% and have a whopping 1 QB hurry recorded on the season.....so this common problem for nebraska the last couple weeks shouldnt be one against this dline. Despite rileys pass happy offense I think they turn to the run more in this game for once as they have been quite effective on the ground rushing for 5.4 yards per attempt (ranked 15th). Nebraska also started to dial up their defensive pressure last week despite the loss they recorded 12 batted passes, and 7 hurries. I think Nebraska wins this one easily by 7 + but just feel better with points since theyve lost so many that have come down to 1-3 points.Comment -
Week 7 Addition:
Penn State +19 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Penn State defense is the real deal. James Franklin has put together another top notch defense ranked 8th in total yards per play holding opponents to just 4 ypp. Their D-Line is ranked #1 in sack%. Their Dline has also been averaging 6 batted down passes per game in the last 3 games (not counting army because they had 1 PA in game) Their LBs are elite and rarely make mistakes. They are well coached and incur very few penalties per game. (and OSU is one of most heavily penalized teams this year) This is just too many points, OSU has been struggling to cover against much weaker teams. Despite PSU's weak o-line I still think they cover, last week franklin constantly took long deep shots down the field and expect him to do the same this week which should be an easy cover as this is the biggest week for PSU on their schedule and will be giving OSU everything they got. In Last years matchup it was a 7 point victory for OSU. Expecting a 7-10 point victory for OSU again this year despite being in ohio.Comment -
NCAAF Week 7 Addition:
Memphis Team Total Under 30 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This number is absurd. Do people even remember years past? Yes teams like memphis thrive against weak competition and rack up a nice 47.8 points per game when they face the cinncinnatis, kansas, missouri state, bowling greens of the world...but .... when they face the number #13 defense in yards per play. (#21 v rush) (#10 vs pass) they get skunked, much like last years 3 point, 104 total yard endeavor against virtually this same defense (shit they were even +2 in the TO margin and still only put up a FG). Look for ole miss to stick to a run heavy play %, and milk the clock as the look ahead to A&M next week. so much memphis love on the media right now. not buying it. havent watched a single one of their shitty games but history, statistics, and SOS evaluation will suffice in selecting this TT for a unit.Comment -
NCAAF Week 7 Card:
Mich/MSU Over 40.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Missouri +16 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Iowa -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Nebraska +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Penn State +19 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Memphis TT Under 30 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
very surprised NEB made it to 3 ....shoulda waited....anyways this what I got so far probably add 1 or 2 in the am once some late info comes in....Comment -
love mizzou this week myself. they been road warriors under pinkel and that a ridiculous amount of points.. cant think of a play we were both on for larger bets that hasnt cashed yet so lets keep the good times rolling
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Adding:
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Texas A&M +10 and LSU -.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Rutgers +5.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 unitsComment -
NCAAF Week 7 Card:
Mich/MSU Over 40.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units WIN +1.5 units
Missouri +16 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units WIN +1.5 units
Iowa -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 units
Nebraska +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 units
Penn State +19 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1 units
Memphis TT Under 30 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units` LOSS - 1.1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Texas AM +10 and LSU -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1 units
Rutgers +5.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units WIN +.5 units
Week 7 Results: 5-3 +2.2 unitsComment -
That rutgers game was WILD.. Saw 52-27 indiana at half i think and thought the game was over.. Then checked the score a while later and it was 55-52 rutgers!
Also cant believe memphis ended up beating ole miss easily.. Ole miss really does suckComment -
NFL Week 6
Cardinals ML (-200) Risking 2 units to win 1 units
Dolphins +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Colts +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Bears +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Mid Season Breakdown
InDepth Thread Betting Breakdown:
Total Results: 42-19 (69%) +23.5 units
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ATS: 25-10
ML: 4-1
Game Totals: 5-0
Team Totals: 5-4
Teasers: 2-3
Parlay: 1-1
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Total Bets: 62
Total Units Risked: 68.09 units
Total Units Won: 43.5 units
Total Units Lost: 20 units
Average Bet Size: 1.09 units
Max Bet: 1.8 units
Average Units Risked per week: 9.73 units
Average Units Profit per week: 3.36 units
ROI per week: 34.5%
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1.5 units+ risked : 6-0
1-1.4 units risked: 29-16
<1units risked: 7-3
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NCAAF 2015:
Week 1: 9-1 +8.65 units
Week 2: 5-3 +2 units
Week 3: 4-5 -.65 units
Week 4: 7-1 +5.4 units
Week 5: 7-2 +5.3 units
Week 6: 5-4 +.6 units
Week 7: 5-3 +2.2 units
Total Results: 42-19 (69%) +23.5 unitsComment -
made sum cash this weekend. thanks 4 the winners bro.
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Smutbucket u are the man!! Killing it! Very impressive.Comment -
Thanks Iloseagain! working on a few writeups now......
here's one I already got done.....
Northwestern +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Fully expect NW to make this a close game, if you watched Iowa-NW game last week, Northwesterns receivers were just dropping everything. The plays were there, the passes were made, for whatever reason their receivers just couldnt hold on to the ball. Nebraska will have a much more difficult time stopping the run than iowa did against them. Although ranked pretty high (17th) in defensive yards per rush allowed at 3.2, they were severely padded during nebraskas weak opponents and average against their tougher running opponents. Iowa completely shutdown NWs run game (what theyve been doing to everybody only allowing one team [north texas] to run over 100 yards where they probably just werent giving a shit) and forced them to throw and their receivers couldnt bring down the ball, that wont happen this game. Their recievers should also have a little more space as the biggest weakness of this Nebraska team is their pass defense allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Although sub-par in sack % this Northwestern defense is good at generating hurries accounting for 24 on the season, something Minnesota was unable to do last week at all as predicted, allowing Nebraskas offense to take-off. I dont think Nebraskas speed on defense will be able to match up well against northwesterns offense and fully expect shifty RB Justin Jackson to have a big game. Maybe we even take the northwestern ML depending on the number when its released and Ill tell you the TT over 20 looks mighty enticing too but this ones is by far the safest and most likely to cash for us. Hop on now before it goes under 7 because its very unlikely it makes it to 10.Comment -
Week 8 Adding
Georgia Tech +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
I looooove these type of situational bets. A strong offensive team coming off a bunch of losses (5) but against extremely tough opponents and defenses going to play a team notorious for cupcake schedules like FSU. Last 4 out of 5 Gtechs opponents are top 25 ranked teams and UNC should be ranked except their QB shit the bed opening game to lose to USC. Competition breeds success, and FSU loves facing easy schedules as they once again (typical FSU fashion, lets call it seminoling) have not faced any ranked team to date and whose hardest opponent would be an inept one dimensional offense in louisville or maybe miami?. TeamRankings has Gtechs SOS ranked at #7 and FSU at #50 (which is generous) FSU is about to be tested and I see this game coming down to a one possession ballgame, even if gtech makes some mistakes early and goes down big this offense is explosive enough to give us some backdoor love. Last year, FSUs defense proved unable to stop Gtechs triple option offense who totaled 465 yards on 73 plays averaging 6.3 yards per play. GTECH is obviously well coached and despite being a run heavy offense has the 2nd least penalties per game at 3.5 while FSU sports a disobedient bunch ranked #85 more then double the amount of penalties gtech averages per game with 7.2. POUND THIS ONE OVER 7 while you can. I was gonna be a buyer at 5.5 when it opened but now im doing it for 1.5 units since were getting a TD.
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my large online popular bookie, BETUS......its still at 7.5 right now as well...Comment -
I only post numbers I lock in at...
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u see this Utah/USC line??? USC fav over Utah by 3.5? No chance Utah covers that spread. It looks FAR too easy. What you think about this line Smut?Comment -
also how do you feel about Toledo -14.5 @ UMass? I went to UMass and still pay attention to them occasionally. They are HORRIBLE. I was big on bowling green when they played UMass and they crushed them easily. I think Toledo should have ZERO issue blowing them out.Comment -
Iloseagain, havent looked into UTAH/USC that much yet but I intend to later in the week, my initial lean was utah team total over 27 as USC defense is shit in typical pac 12 fashion but need to look into further, most likely wont have a play in that one
Toledo/UMASS...no idea....no play....never watched either of these teams nor am I even inclined to ever even look into the stats of these two shitty teams , lol....occasionally Ill have a play from some smaller schools but you will notice the majority of my plays are from the power 5 conferences especially big 10 and sec.....
anyways heres an addition made for tonight
Week 8 Addition
Virginia Tech -1 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Brewer is back, and hes looking much improved from last season. Before his injury in week 1 he was picking apart the ohio state defense going 11 for 16 with 2 TDs averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. He came in last week in the 2nd half and went 3-4 for 75 yards a TD and a INT late. He is very familiar with his WRs and big 6'6 foot TE Malleck as they all are returning starters from last year and look to get back in the groove with their returning QB. Their rushing game has also much improved over the last few games (took a shit against pitt but that was in pouring rain conditions with a shitty passer and a good D what do you expecT?) from the emergence of true freshman travon mcmillian who is quietly averaging 7.08 yards per carry. Their defense is rounding into form and will be able to excel in typical vtech fashion now that they have an offense that will be able to throw the ball. They've been averaging almost 7 TFL per game and are ranked 27th in sack % in 7.69%. Although Dukes defense is ranked among st the best in college football right now, it probably has a lot to do with their weak competition, sporting the 73rd most difficult SOS according to TeamRankings. Vtech is ranked 27th in SOS. Vtech at home with the points, as we expect a spark out of their offense with the return of Brewer. Bought a half point to be safe as these are typically close games.Comment -
Haha i gotcha.. Toledo is ranked and killing teams and umass is just really bad. GL!
Edit: the best thing about teams going to play @ UMass is the fact that nobody goes to the games. There is no home field advantage there. The majority of students go to the huge tailgate party before the game and then leave once the game starts cuz we would get the boot. A big crowd at a UMass game would be about 4,000. Average probably like 2500-3000 lol.Comment -
Week 8 Addition:
Boston College +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This defense should cause many issues for this under performing Louisville offense. This is just too many point against a Don Brown defense, another elite defensive coordinator who is seldom talked about. Him and addazio turned around this BC defense right away when they arrived in 2013 taking the 113th ranked defense in 2012 to 14th in 2013. The turnaround from a 2-10 2012 team to his 7-6 2013 team was impressive and despite losing his starting QB and RB this season, I think he'll still have a successful season. His blitz heavy packages should cause all kinds of problems for this offensive line that is ranked #116 in sack %. This BC defense that has almost 9 TFL per game should easily hold this weak Louisville running unit (averaging 3.6 yards per rush ranked #105) to under 50 yards rushing. I see this being a low scoring affair and although it will be tough for this BC offense to pull out the win as bad as its been lately, I think 8 points is too many and their offense should finally show some progress against a much weaker louisville defense from last year and after facing a few really tough Ds the last few weeks.Comment -
Busy night no time for writeups
Week 8 Additions
2 Team 6 pt Teaser . Texas A&M +11.5 and Washington +23 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Missouri -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 unuits to win 1 units
Aub/Arkansas Over 51 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Tenneessee +15 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 unitsComment -
Week 8 Card:
Georgia Tech +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Northwestern +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Virginia Tech -1 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Boston College +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser . Texas A&M +11.5 and Washington +23 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Missouri -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 unuits to win 1 units
Aub/Arkansas Over 51 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Tenneessee +15 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 unitsComment -
Thanks and GL!Comment -
like mizzou (a lot) and BC (a little), not against any of yours... think we see a lot of points in the orange bowl (ov 55.5 like the most) and i like wake a little bit. that pretty much it for me in what a pretty uninspiring card.. gl brother.Comment -
Ya disappointing card I agree......
love missou had circled in beginning of week at -2.5 than dropped to -4 decided to wait and turned out for the best, shit I wish I waited a little longer its at -1 now!, everyone seems to be hateing on missou still, dont they realize mauk is gone? I think we see a breakout performance by lock as he looked sharp in georgia matchup, recievers just had a lot of dropped passes...and vandy pass def has been real weak last three weeks allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt for almost 900 yards, nor have they been able to effect a pass rush much at all this season, averagin 1 hurry a game and less than 2 sacks a game.....we also have a huge coaching advantage....derek mason.....don't think he lasts....Comment -
Good picks so farComment
