Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Did you make a play on the Fortuna fight? Franco is Fortuna's toughest opponent, like you said he's pretty skilled and savvy, and I don't think he's ever been hurt much less knocked out. The over's set at 8.5 rounds at less than evens, so I took a fight to go the distance bet at +125. Franco's more aggressive than your typical slick counter-punching Cuban so I'm worried he's hittable and Fortuna could hurt him, but I still think that chance is slim.

My internet is down

can't write back yet, im on my phone. Imo... I think the fight goes the distance. Franco does have his defensive deficiencies and Fortuna is a guy who could punch through those holes for.the ko, forgot which fightninsaw that made me think that. What im banking on is Franco weathers the storm and makes his move when Fortuna is gassed.
Im on Fortuna not inside the distance

meant to post that here

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 03:07 PM

My pick tonight is leaning towards Fortuna not ITD

MD · 08-02-13, 03:28 PM

I have Fortuna by decision. I'm expecting Fortuna to get the KO, but only around 50% of the time, and I think he wins a decision just over 40% of the time. Decent value at +255.

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by MD

I have Fortuna by decision. I'm expecting Fortuna to get the KO, but only around 50% of the time, and I think he wins a decision just over 40% of the time. Decent value at +255.

I think that's how it's going to end that way too, but I need to build my confidence back after the Burgos draw last week. Think I'll go the not ITD to build me back up. Franco should be a step above all his opposition. He's not young and inexperienced like Zamudio, but a veteran of sorts due to his amateur background.
Cristbol Cruz was a tough vet that's only been stopped twice before, but He's been through so many battles that it isn't surprising his body didn't cooperate with him.
Franco is a vet who hasn't put his body through much yet. Fight smart and weather the storm and this goes 10.

MD · 08-02-13, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I think that's how it's going to end that way too, but I need to build my confidence back after the Burgos draw last week. Think I'll go the not ITD to build me back up. Franco should be a step above all his opposition. He's not young and inexperienced like Zamudio, but a veteran of sorts due to his amateur background.
Cristbol Cruz was a tough vet that's only been stopped twice before, but He's been through so many battles that it isn't surprising his body didn't cooperate with him.
Franco is a vet who hasn't put his body through much yet. Fight smart and weather the storm and this goes 10.

Shouldn't let losses affect your confidence bro. I lost a lot of money live betting Mighty Mouse by decision -700 with two minutes left in round five last Saturday. Slept pretty soundly that night.

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 08-02-13, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by MD

I have Fortuna by decision. I'm expecting Fortuna to get the KO, but only around 50% of the time, and I think he wins a decision just over 40% of the time. Decent value at +255.

I have Fortuna in a 5 fight parlay along with Aldo/Machida/Lineker/Yahya. The rest of my picks and plays were posted yesterday on another thread (UFC 163 by PunisherIND). Hopefully Teddy Atlas will call in sick. If so, I'm sure most people will find the broadcast to be a much more enjoyable experience.

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by MD

Shouldn't let losses affect your confidence bro. I lost a lot of money live betting Mighty Mouse by decision -700 with two minutes left in round five last Saturday. Slept pretty soundly that night.

Yea, I was on MIghty Mouse UD too.
Gah...I don't know, props just make me mad.
I'm looking at a couple of props this weekend too. Hopefully if I win tonight, I'll pull the trigger on the ones I'm looking at

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 04:31 PM

I wan to watch footage for the Narh/Robinson fight... but stupid internet is down.

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 04:39 PM

Watching footage of "The New" Ray Robinson right now... this dude looks awkward and always off balance.
Doesn't look that good.
i've seen Narh twice, but fuzzy on it.... i'm about to watch some of him

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 04:45 PM

Don't know what I'm missing here.
I'm watching Robinson's last fight against Morales who was a sub par opponent and he looked sub par winning it.
I think Narh is such an underdog because before his fight with Cruz, he was a 2 year lay off, he's 35 and he's been KOed twice.
Definitely looking into this more

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 05:51 PM

Robinson looks so average... im about to make a play on narh I'd the lime keeps going up for him.

Im going to make a play on naeh. Standing at 178 right now

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 10:06 PM

Looks like my not itd is going to hit. Looks like Fortuna by decision is coming up too. Just got to wait for my ray narh play to go through... He should win

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Looks like my not itd is going to hit. Looks like Fortuna by decision is coming up too. Just got to wait for my ray narh play to go through... He should win

wow....a draw..... I dont believe it

**goodfellas433** · 08-02-13, 10:10 PM

Wow that sucked

**goodfellas433** · 08-02-13, 10:11 PM

Fn boxing...judges get me all the time

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 10:12 PM

Looks like my concern of last week was well placed. Good thing I took not itd

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 08-02-13, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by MD

I have Fortuna by decision. I'm expecting Fortuna to get the KO, but only around 50% of the time, and I think he wins a decision just over 40% of the time. Decent value at +255.

MD you just got ripped off. As did I. Absolutely ridiculous!

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

MD you just got ripped off. As did I. Absolutely ridiculous!

it was. 99-91 Franco?

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 08-02-13, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

it was. 99-91 Franco?

They didn't need to bother turning the lights back on. It's obvious that judge already filled his score card out before the fight even started.

**hougigo** · 08-02-13, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

They didn't need to bother turning the lights back on. It's obvious that judge already filled his score card out before the fight even started.

it was a low action fight and Franco was doing enough to win some of the low action rounds... Not enough to win imo

**Boxscout** · 08-02-13, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Robinson looks so average... im about to make a play on narh I'd the lime keeps going up for him.

Im going to make a play on naeh. Standing at 178 right now

I lost a bit on this one. I didn't see the fight but I'm curious now. I saw the same thing. Robinson looks very average and awkward in that footage. Got shut out by Shawn Porter... Obviously we both misread it. Pretty surprised by that result.

Nice job assessing the Fortuna fight, though

**hougigo** · 08-03-13, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by Boxscout

I lost a bit on this one. I didn't see the fight but I'm curious now. I saw the same thing. Robinson looks very average and awkward in that footage. Got shut out by Shawn Porter... Obviously we both misread it. Pretty surprised by that result.

Nice job assessing the Fortuna fight, though

thanks, what happened in that fight?

**hougigo** · 08-03-13, 02:51 AM

Wtf happened? I need to see this fight. Narh comes off a two year lay off and beats a much better fighter but then gets koed by Robinson? I saw Robinsons latest fight and he looked so sub par against Morales... He couldn't even put away that loser.just one of those things that rack my brain.
Only thing I can think of is those huge shots Cruz landed really affected him

**Boxscout** · 08-03-13, 06:09 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Only thing I can think of is those huge shots Cruz landed really affected him

Maybe so. A total head scratcher for me too. Haven't been that surprised by a fight since Botha/Sonny Bill Williams was changed from 12 to 10 rounds during the fight. Almost went really big on this one, so I'll be thankful for that much. Obviously the oddsmakers knew about or saw the issue.

**hougigo** · 08-03-13, 06:42 PM

At a Mcdonalds right now.
I got a play already locked down, Eddie Chambers by 10 round decsion over Mucnhu. Eddie is an overall better fighter. People are concerned about him moving down from HW and he'll be drained. He was never a big HW to begin with and was 202 against Adamek last year. My only concern is a 13 month lay off and if he's willing to let his hands go. He beat Adamek... or rather should have, with only one hand and put up a great fight doing so.
Munchu, from what I've seen, is a decent prospect... that's it...a prospect. Eddie is level's above him.
He should utilize his jab to keep the big guy off him and his speed should be enough to overwhelm him. My only concern is that Eddie might KO him.

I'm looking at Stevens/Roman fight... think this might go the full 10

**hougigo** · 08-03-13, 07:38 PM

I'm not going on the Stevens fight. I think Stevens is going to KO Roman.
Roman is good, but even in his wins he gets knocked down.
In his last fight, I think he was sent down 3 or 4 times before eventually winning by KO. Pizon was an average opponent... I think Stevens will KO him hoping to impress for a GGG fight

**Fistula** · 08-04-13, 03:12 AM

I hope you didn't pick against Mchunu based on the one round of him posted on youtube. I was considering picking him but didn't because I couldn't find any more video of him. Tonight's fight was a real discovery. He's a masterful technical boxer with great reflexes and great defence. Chambers didn't lose because he came down in weight. He lost because Mchunu was the smarter, better boxer. We couldn't have gauged Mchunu's ability before, but now it's obvious he wasn't close to a level below Chambers.

**Fistula** · 08-04-13, 04:21 AM

I'm happy Stevens got a big knockout... just because the boxing public will now overrate him and the bookies will give me a better price to pick Golovkin to destroy him

**bobby heenan** · 08-04-13, 12:16 PM

ggg will destroy stevens....was at the fights last night...cousin works in pr for mohegan so i was ringside...chambers looked dead...stevens family was wyling out outside of the arena after the fight in jubilation...heard one of the members of his crew got arrested after trying to hit security while trying to get into the catered portion without a pass.....met ray mancini too....

**hougigo** · 08-04-13, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

I hope you didn't pick against Mchunu based on the one round of him posted on youtube. I was considering picking him but didn't because I couldn't find any more video of him. Tonight's fight was a real discovery. He's a masterful technical boxer with great reflexes and great defence. Chambers didn't lose because he came down in weight. He lost because Mchunu was the smarter, better boxer. We couldn't have gauged Mchunu's ability before, but now it's obvious he wasn't close to a level below Chambers.

I did actually. I think I got so caught up with Eddie's performances against heavyweights that I forgot that CW is a completely different division.
I still don't think that highly of Mchunu, but he did better than I thought and Chambers did worse than I thought.
That was evident by his inability to land against a CW while he enjoyed a high connect rate as a HW.

**hougigo** · 08-04-13, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

I'm happy Stevens got a big knockout... just because the boxing public will now overrate him and the bookies will give me a better price to pick Golovkin to destroy him

I'll laugh if this fight gets made. GGG will absolutely destory him

Originally posted by bobby heenan

ggg will destroy stevens....was at the fights last night...cousin works in pr for mohegan so i was ringside...chambers looked dead...stevens family was wyling out outside of the arena after the fight in jubilation...heard one of the members of his crew got arrested after trying to hit security while trying to get into the catered portion without a pass.....met ray mancini too....

Good shit man, wish I lived close to fights

**hougigo** · 08-04-13, 09:42 PM

The only thing I'm happy about is not taking over in Stevens/Roman.... that's the only thing that saved me from losing more than I should have tonight.

**hougigo** · 08-06-13, 02:28 PM

Right... Geale/Barker props are up. I took Geale by 12 round decision for -105.
Like I said before, I see this as a 65-35 fight.... but Geale is a fighter who is apt in pretty much every category. This is neutral ground, so I could see Geale winning on stamina and work rate. I'm not too scared of a robbery because he was able to win in the most hostile territory in Euorpe twice.
While this will be a competitive fight for 12 rounds, I see Geale's stamina and work rate carrying him to a close decision.

Wilder/Liakhovich is up.... only thing worth looking at is the over/under.
Trying to decide what will happen. Watching his fight with Jennings later and whether or not Wilder takes him out early depends if he can land his straight right.
I still think Wilder isn't that good of a boxer, but oh well.
Liakhovich has been koed 4 times in his 5 losses against quality opposition and they were all in the later rounds.
I'm looking to take the over 3.5 for -120 and maybe make a small play for Liakhoavich at +1000 because I don't think Wilder is that good.
Honestly, I'll probably keep fading him against reasonable opposition until he proves something to me.

**hougigo** · 08-06-13, 02:31 PM

Also taking Fonfara right now because it's impossible to take cloud in anybodies territory.
Cloyd gets robbed so many times it's ridiculous, so there's no way I can take him here even though I think he's the upset prince with a better skill set and more experience.

Also keeping an eye on Mollo/Spilzka and see if it goes up any more for Spilkza. He was dropped twice against Mollo, but still came back to KO him. He might be in Mollo's place again, but i still see him winning by KO. He landed way to many shots on Mollo and unless Mollo is really tentative, he'll do it again.
Mollo is just aggressive and that'll leave him open for Arthur to land some good shots

MD · 08-06-13, 02:46 PM

Why is Kovalev -105 here? I took him at -120 and thought I was getting a steal. I 'capped him at -230.