Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 07:12 PM

Going small on one more. Not berto inside the distance. I'm just not convinced with him. New trainer, constant stamina issues and that new body worries me more. Also, if he does that retarded shoulder roll again, he could be getting hit more. Doesn't tuck his chin in, looks like a yard. If Kara's can close the distance and make berto infight, he could swing the fight in his favor

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I can't write in detail... But I got Omar by ko. The jap on paper looks like a durable guy, but I think Omar will use his offensive weapons and storm his opponent.
the jap offers promlems, a southpaw who's tested and has the ability to really test Omar's grit. I like the offensive storm to clear out his opponent and take him out in the mid rounds.
im going small on Thurman/Chavez under. Both men have ko power and the opening rounds will be fireworks. I think Chavez will taste canvas and get koed in the mid to late round

Shoot, over looks dead. The pace slowed way down after round three

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 09:27 PM

Fig exhausted.... Hope they don't stop the fight to go to the cards

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 09:55 PM

Arakawa not human. I knew he was tough.... But to survive that many power punches.... Just insane

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 09:57 PM

I lost my ko kings wager....but I'm not even mad... Arakawa impressed the hell out f me

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 10:38 PM

Was right on e stamina issue. His mouth was gaping and he was downed

**hougigo** · 07-27-13, 11:14 PM

Downed and out. Stunning ko for sk. Glad one of my ko king wages hit

**hougigo** · 07-28-13, 12:24 AM

I don't know if anybody else reads this or I'm just constantly talking to myself.
Would love for other people's insights on fights like the one I had on Burgos/Gonzo earlier.
Always good to talk about fights and brainstorm

**Fistula** · 07-28-13, 02:27 AM

Oh I definitely appreciate the one active boxing thread here! And I'll be dropping by when I have something insightful to offer, or to show appreciation for your picks.

What did your boxing record for the weekend end up as? You lost a couple close ones that could easily have gone your way. I generally think betting on the under or a fighter to win by KO should be avoided. Because of course when a guy has a lot of knockouts on his record it's more an indication that he's been fighting mismatches than an indication of power. And knockouts themselves are the result of overall ability as much as pure power. I actually think Thurman is an underrated boxer, but not the puncher he's hyped as. I picked him to win by KO but was really sweating it, and it was only his movement and patience that got him the knockout.

By the way, you can find my boxing picks on my thread of tennis and boxing picks in the tennis forum...

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-28-13, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Small on a Gradovich/Burgos/Aydin/Dirrell/Rubio parlay. Got a great price and should hit. Most of my parlays do.

Huge on a Lawler/Mighty Mouse/MacDonald parlay! Hope everyone has a great night!

**hougigo** · 07-29-13, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Oh I definitely appreciate the one active boxing thread here! And I'll be dropping by when I have something insightful to offer, or to show appreciation for your picks.

What did your boxing record for the weekend end up as? You lost a couple close ones that could easily have gone your way. I generally think betting on the under or a fighter to win by KO should be avoided. Because of course when a guy has a lot of knockouts on his record it's more an indication that he's been fighting mismatches than an indication of power. And knockouts themselves are the result of overall ability as much as pure power. I actually think Thurman is an underrated boxer, but not the puncher he's hyped as. I picked him to win by KO but was really sweating it, and it was only his movement and patience that got him the knockout.

By the way, you can find my boxing picks on my thread of tennis and boxing picks in the tennis forum...

Man, I used to keep record for everything if you saw in my start.
I hit Estrada, Ruiz, Servania under, Berto not ITD and Gonzalez.
Missed out on Johnosn UD, Thurman under, Chaves KO and Burgos UD.

Berto ITD helped make up for the other small ones I made (Chaves KO and Thurmn under) and Servnia helped too.
I did like MD and put down a good amount on Ruiz because he was way undervlued there.

As for Thurman, I think he'll still KO people because he has heavy hands, but depending on who, it won't be as early anymore.
I forget who's fighting this week, but I'll start watching around Wednesday

**hougigo** · 07-29-13, 01:09 PM

Congrats on the hit.
What was the payout? I know everyone but Aydin was in the -1000's

**hougigo** · 07-29-13, 01:50 PM

Fortuna at 200 for decision on oddschecker.... all I can say right now is I'm either taking him by decision or not ITD.
Cruz is a skilled fighter and experienced. Fortuna is fast and explosive, but ll we've seen him blst out are inexperienced opposition or past prime vets.
I'll take my chances not ITD

**hougigo** · 07-30-13, 03:35 PM

Splizka a +450 underdog against Mollo?<br>
Lines obviously switched

**hougigo** · 07-30-13, 03:38 PM

was right, they were switched

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-30-13, 04:06 PM

Can't decide on the Geale vs. Barker match. Who do you have gigo?

**hougigo** · 07-30-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Can't decide on the Geale vs. Barker match. Who do you have gigo?

I'm not entirely sure who wins this, but I'm waiting for props to open in on this.
I'm waiting to get Geale on points.
Geale is underrated, a fighter who's good but not overwhelming great in all categories. Barker is tough, but Geale will probably keep his work rate up to bank up rounds. I don't see this ending early unless Barker KO's Geale or the fight is ended early due to cuts.
Geale will also be hard to track down with his movement and his stamina will keep him in the game.
this fight goes 12, i'll say that much.
I also like geale here because he has the better resume. He was actually able to go to Germany and win against Sturm... that's impressive

**hougigo** · 07-30-13, 05:32 PM

Barker was doing very well against Sergio though, but that's because he was keeping to the outside and boxing and busted Sergio's nose too. If Geale can find his range and keep the work rate up, I like Geale to win it.
This'll be a highly contested fight though that could end in a Md or SD

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-30-13, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Barker was doing very well against Sergio though, but that's because he was keeping to the outside and boxing and busted Sergio's nose too. If Geale can find his range and keep the work rate up, I like Geale to win it.
This'll be a highly contested fight though that could end in a Md or SD

I have a tremendous amount of respect for both fighters. The guys on this message board who don't watch boxing are missing out. They are missing out BIG TIME! Barker has fought in the U.S. before. However, this will be Geale's first time. They both have impressive victories over tough opposition. I still can not decide.

I'm going to wait till the week of the fight. Might even wait till the weigh in's.

**hougigo** · 07-30-13, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

I have a tremendous amount of respect for both fighters. The guys on this message board who don't watch boxing are missing out. They are missing out BIG TIME! Barker has fought in the U.S. before. However, this will be Geale's first time. They both have impressive victories over tough opposition. I still can not decide.

I'm going to wait till the week of the fight. Might even wait till the weigh in's.

Yea.... this is a close fight. I'm 65-35 Geale winning, I think his footwork, stamina and activity will win him the day.

Not exactly hostile territory, but he's not foreign to fighting away from home.

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 09:33 AM

Kovalev line keeps going down
... If he gets to the plus side, im going to have to put in some more and take him to pound town

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 12:34 PM

Also working on what I want for the Mayweather card. There are two I really like right now, waiting for the props to open on Garcia/Matthysse and watching the line for the other.
I'm still undecided on Trout/Lara and not quite sure what other fights he'll have on his card.
Heard Molina/Smith will be on that card.
From what i've seen Molina should win that fight... but smith is a Mayweather fighter and TMT's first champion... so who knows what kind of Tom Foolery could happen. I thought Rosado/Love was close with Love barely taking it... but one of the cards was despicable.... also a lot of the TMT fighters seem to always be on banned substances.

Bey and Rosado have already been caught.... waiting to see who else

MD · 07-31-13, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Also working on what I want for the Mayweather card. There are two I really like right now, waiting for the props to open on Garcia/Matthysse and watching the line for the other.
I'm still undecided on Trout/Lara and not quite sure what other fights he'll have on his card.
Heard Molina/Smith will be on that card.
From what i've seen Molina should win that fight... but smith is a Mayweather fighter and TMT's first champion... so who knows what kind of Tom Foolery could happen. I thought Rosado/Love was close with Love barely taking it... but one of the cards was despicable.... also a lot of the TMT fighters seem to always be on banned substances.

Bey and Rosado have already been caught.... waiting to see who else

I made a fortune on Love in that fight. I 'capped him at -280, and I figured that he'd have a huge advantage if it got to the cards, deserved or not. -110 was a gift.

I lost a decent amount on Trout's last fight, too. He should beat Lara pretty handily though. I actually had Trout up a point or two over Canello, but it was close enough that the only thing I'd complain about is that Trout needed a KO after R8.

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by MD

I made a fortune on Love in that fight. I 'capped him at -280, and I figured that he'd have a huge advantage if it got to the cards, deserved or not. -110 was a gift.

I lost a decent amount on Trout's last fight, too. He should beat Lara pretty handily though. I actually had Trout up a point or two over Canello, but it was close enough that the only thing I'd complain about is that Trout needed a KO after R8.

I took love by 10 round decision at + odds, forgot how much though. He was at a huge advantage from the get go. Fighting on his promoters card, significant size advantage and he's used to the weight class. I'll take him again in a rematch if they have one
Trout... this could be tricky. He has a very ugly style... he'll pump a bunch of jabs and come in to unleash some timely combos before moving out of range. Lara's a pretty skilled counter puncher with decent speed. Even though he was floored twice in his last fight, he destroyed Angulo's face.
I'm not too keen on it because I don't know what the judges will favor. Lara will probably land the more telling blows and bigger punches, but Trout will be pumping his jab non-stop.
I don't think this fight ends in a KO to say the least.
I most likely won't touch the fight and roll with the main, co-main and Molina/Smith

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

I took love by 10 round decision at + odds, forgot how much though. He was at a huge advantage from the get go. Fighting on his promoters card, significant size advantage and he's used to the weight class. I'll take him again in a rematch if they have one
Trout... this could be tricky. He has a very ugly style... he'll pump a bunch of jabs and come in to unleash some timely combos before moving out of range. Lara's a pretty skilled counter puncher with decent speed. Even though he was floored twice in his last fight, he destroyed Angulo's face.
I'm not too keen on it because I don't know what the judges will favor. Lara will probably land the more telling blows and bigger punches, but Trout will be pumping his jab non-stop.
I don't think this fight ends in a KO to say the least.
I most likely won't touch the fight and roll with the main, co-main and Molina/Smith

Lara's the kind of guy who has the potential and tools but doesn't seem like he wants to utilize it most of the time

**Fistula** · 07-31-13, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Kovalev line keeps going down
... If he gets to the plus side, im going to have to put in some more and take him to pound town

Don't you mean going up? Most of the British books have Kovalev at -150, so when I saw he moved from -130 to -120 at 5dimes I thought it wouldn't get any better and was a steal so joined 5dimes just to play him fairly heavy. I don't usually read line movement well, but I doubt Kovalev gets to + money.

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 04:08 PM

Yea, meant that. I see 30 to 20 and automatically think down.
Im not that good with reading line movement at all though. I just know people are staring to jump on cleverly now.
Honestly, i just watch fights and make an analysis on who i think will win.

**Fistula** · 07-31-13, 04:48 PM

Lara vs Trout is not actually scheduled! It was only a rumour and nothing was officially announced. Strange that bookies have lines up for it.

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 07-31-13, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Don't you mean going up? Most of the British books have Kovalev at -150, so when I saw he moved from -130 to -120 at 5dimes I thought it wouldn't get any better and was a steal so joined 5dimes just to play him fairly heavy. I don't usually read line movement well, but I doubt Kovalev gets to + money.

A lot of the people in the UK are not only betting with their heads. They are betting with their hearts as well. A lot of people want to see big things happen for Nathan Cleverly.

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by Fistula

Lara vs Trout is not actually scheduled! It was only a rumour and nothing was officially announced. Strange that bookies have lines up for it.

It's one of those things that are going to happen, but just aren't official yet. Trout and Lara pretty much confirmed this.

**hougigo** · 07-31-13, 10:30 PM

No props or O/U for Saul Roman/Curtis Stevins... struggling with this.
Stevens could KO Roman early as he has been KO'd by lesser opposition before and Stevens is a big puncher at MW since moving down. No doubt he'll jump at the start of the bell.
Roman actually a better boxer than Stevens.... I don't know
Some time the obvious pick is the right pick

**Boxscout** · 08-01-13, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Lara's the kind of guy who has the potential and tools but doesn't seem like he wants to utilize it most of the time

Yeah, still working on this one but that seems to be the case. He also should be deducted a point in every fight. He's sure to bring out the butts, low blows and choke holds against someone as difficult as Trout. Could work for him if he gets away with it or against him if he doesn't.

Edit: I like your thinking on the Fortuna fight. Will have a look at that for sure. Thanks

**hougigo** · 08-01-13, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Boxscout

Yeah, still working on this one but that seems to be the case. He also should be deducted a point in every fight. He's sure to bring out the butts, low blows and choke holds against someone as difficult as Trout. Could work for him if he gets away with it or against him if he doesn't.

Edit: I like your thinking on the Fortuna fight. Will have a look at that for sure. Thanks

for Fortuna, you just got to survive the early rounds. Very explosive and powerful, bit he runs out of steam. Franco is old, but experienced enough to know what's right and wrong. Dude was robbed in his only loss.... Badly

**Fistula** · 08-01-13, 05:16 PM

Did you make a play on the Fortuna fight? Franco is Fortuna's toughest opponent, like you said he's pretty skilled and savvy, and I don't think he's ever been hurt much less knocked out. The over's set at 8.5 rounds at less than evens, so I took a fight to go the distance bet at +125. Franco's more aggressive than your typical slick counter-punching Cuban so I'm worried he's hittable and Fortuna could hurt him, but I still think that chance is slim.

**bobby heenan** · 08-02-13, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

A lot of the people in the UK are not only betting with their heads. They are betting with their hearts as well. A lot of people want to see big things happen for Nathan Cleverly.

man -150 is a great price for kovalev no matter where the fight is