UFC on FX 2: Alves vs Kampmann
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The HOFFSBR MVP
- 07-02-08
- 4847
#71Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#72Rosa dropped from a big heavyweight to 205 and had a pretty good gas tank... Te Huna gassed out in the first round against Gustafsson... If Te Huna doesn't finish it early, he could be in trouble... I'd like to play Te Huna, but I don't know...Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#73Waldburger could win, but Jake Hecht's power is to fear. He could easily catch TJ like Hendricks did.Comment -
VitoochSBR MVP
- 09-26-11
- 3470
#75Miller/Te Huna parlay?Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#76Playing Penner and Noke.
Might play Jordan as wellComment -
Thor4140SBR Posting Legend
- 02-09-08
- 22296
#77I will admit that I initially put much faith in alves' tdd and thought it was some of the best. After doing research yesterday, I found that not to be true.
HOWEVER - I will say its still pretty darn good and I'm willing to bet its going to be good enough against kappman in order to force a prolonged stand up fight in which I believe thiago will absolutely dominate martin. Outside of a flash KO, which obviously can happen, I see no way kappman winnnig a stand up battle where I think we will see thiago keep the fight at. I also think you guys forget story controlled the clinch - story only successfully grounded alves once to my recollection, alves stuffed about 8 other tds from horror story.
I'm going to post below something I have never really done before. I used to post lengthy breakdowns on here but haven't had the time to do so the past few months. However, I realized I could post my notes that I jot down.
I take notes while researching and analyzing any fight I'm looking at. As this is a tricky fight and one I am interested in betting somewhat moderate or large on, it is a bit lengthy... It's also choppy and not in complete sentences as they are quick notes I type up as I research, so it might be hard to read. Yet I think you can follow it and see what I'm doing / thinking.
Feel free to comment, criticize, agree and / or point out where you think I'm wrong - outside insight is always helpful.
Here it is:
Alves – tdd questions
-Against story, he stuffed all but 1 takedown (about 8 stuffed). Story won by controlling the clinch and closing the distance so that alves couldn’t get off on the feet. Can Kapman clinch and be this aggressive? No…haven't really seen this from kapman for an entire fight / main gameplan used, if anything it was diego who pulled a 'story' gameplan on kappman....So can't say kapman is this agressive in the clinch and based on his style I think not but who knows.
- Against howard – all 3 takedowns stuffed and more takedowns landed by alves. Howard tried to do the story tactic, but alves was prepared and kept distance when appropriate and changed levels to td and throw off howard.
-Taken down a lot with Fitch, but its Fitch!!! Also defended a lot of subs and was able to get back to his feet periodically. GREAT sweeps too against fitch…but spent too much time on bottom and lost a typical boring fitch grinder.
-THREE solid tds from KOS defended by alves in 1st and 2nd. Overall no successful tds - similar strategy will be golden against kapman I think..
-Hughes gets him down once in 1st, but alves pops right back up.
- Stuffed desouza over and over
- ALL of these guys have better wrestling than kapmann i think, and the only two that grounded him consistently was fitch and GSP – arguably the two best wrestling grinders in the division.
-Chin = good, only wobbled by lytle. Cardio = good to great, can't recall him gassing. Size / strenghth = HUGE / STRONG. Stand up = technical w/POWER, diverse striking arsenal, solid defense. TDD = pretty good, only GSP and FITCH get down with consistency, and can’t really do much with it. Trouble in the clinch, but hopefully learned from that with story, Sanchez fougth story’s fight against kappman. Overall, movement and precision striking will win this fight, throwing in a few random tds will help as well.
Kappmann – against story gets lit up, story’s striking is wild and has power, not as much power as alves’ nor the same technicality. Trips story down as story appears to start to gas in the 2nd – story's striking is even more sloppy and he clinched up with martin. Basically gets most tds in the 3rd when story is gassed – hoping alves will be well ahead on the scorecards by the 3rd and outpointing on the feet and sprawling on kappman I hope, and cardio is not a major concern.
-Stuffed and outstruck diego on the feet in the 1st, but gets clobbered by diego in the stand up during the 2nd and 3rd. No tds landed for kapman.
-Gets down condit consistently with trips but when on the feet kapman gets beat up for the most part...IS condit’s tdd anything special? Probably not considering he’s been grounded by most opponents who try.
So he got story down in the 2nd and 3rd, partly because of gassing and it probably also surprised story, and he also did this because story – a non striker – was beating him up on the feet. Got condit down a few times with trips, but like story, beats kapman up on the feet. After seeing story against brenneman getting td's at will on story, I wouldn't call story's defensive wrestling special (altough charlie has some of the best mma wrestling in the game).
Chin - not so good. Cardio - wilted against 3rd with shields and appears to slow in the 3rd - many dropped 3rd rounds on sherdog score cards in various fights - overall cardio I would say is good. Size = big but mostly length, not brute muscle like story or alves. TDs - tricky trips, alves must avoid clinch. Stand up - technical and good offense, no cold stopping power but can wobble people, HORRIBLE defense - gets lit up by many opponents with much less stand up skills than alves - can definitely see him blitz kapman on the feet possibly stoppage. Clinch - not damaging but can land the trips from there. Grappling = on top and on bottom pretty dangerous - alves good on top, but scared if kapman gets on top of avles, obviously must avoid being on back against kapman. TDD -= great, some of the most underrated tdd out there, but don't think alves will go for any outside of a last minute td to steal a round, catch martin by surprise?
Overall - IF THIAGO CAN MOVE, AVOID THE CLINCH, and NOT GET INTO A BRAWL / POSITION FOR MARTIN TO LAND A TRIP, then alves should dominate the stand up with distance, leg kicks, and counters. Also, I don’t think kapman will have story’s success in the clinch – story is a big strong brute who was able to muscle thaigo around and was willing to disengage with thiago to throw some bombs - kapman does not have story’s power nor that type of clinch strength I think. Bettttting on bkapman your basicallyy betting on him to replicate story's clinch war or gsp/fitches wrestle grinding..therefore that is a big 'IF' to bet on. Alves early tko aka marquart'd/daley'd or decision.
I remember Story taking him down more than once. If i recall Alves keep walking back to the cage like a nitwit and letting Story trap him. I also remember Story winning the stand up battle in the first round with his toughness taking two shots of Alves to his one. It kinda demoralized Alves and he went in that shell of his. If i recall tho Alves lit him up in the third. I had money on Alves and everytime Story trapped him i was thinking what the fuk is wrong with Alves. How in the world do u walk straight back against the cage against a fighter like Story and use no foot movement side to side.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#78I will admit that I initially put much faith in alves' tdd and thought it was some of the best. After doing research yesterday, I found that not to be true.
HOWEVER - I will say its still pretty darn good and I'm willing to bet its going to be good enough against kappman in order to force a prolonged stand up fight in which I believe thiago will absolutely dominate martin. Outside of a flash KO, which obviously can happen, I see no way kappman winnnig a stand up battle where I think we will see thiago keep the fight at. I also think you guys forget story controlled the clinch - story only successfully grounded alves once to my recollection, alves stuffed about 8 other tds from horror story.
I'm going to post below something I have never really done before. I used to post lengthy breakdowns on here but haven't had the time to do so the past few months. However, I realized I could post my notes that I jot down.
I take notes while researching and analyzing any fight I'm looking at. As this is a tricky fight and one I am interested in betting somewhat moderate or large on, it is a bit lengthy... It's also choppy and not in complete sentences as they are quick notes I type up as I research, so it might be hard to read. Yet I think you can follow it and see what I'm doing / thinking.
Feel free to comment, criticize, agree and / or point out where you think I'm wrong - outside insight is always helpful.
Here it is:
Alves – tdd questions
-Against story, he stuffed all but 1 takedown (about 8 stuffed). Story won by controlling the clinch and closing the distance so that alves couldn’t get off on the feet. Can Kapman clinch and be this aggressive? No…haven't really seen this from kapman for an entire fight / main gameplan used, if anything it was diego who pulled a 'story' gameplan on kappman....So can't say kapman is this agressive in the clinch and based on his style I think not but who knows.
- Against howard – all 3 takedowns stuffed and more takedowns landed by alves. Howard tried to do the story tactic, but alves was prepared and kept distance when appropriate and changed levels to td and throw off howard.
-Taken down a lot with Fitch, but its Fitch!!! Also defended a lot of subs and was able to get back to his feet periodically. GREAT sweeps too against fitch…but spent too much time on bottom and lost a typical boring fitch grinder.
-THREE solid tds from KOS defended by alves in 1st and 2nd. Overall no successful tds - similar strategy will be golden against kapman I think..
-Hughes gets him down once in 1st, but alves pops right back up.
- Stuffed desouza over and over
- ALL of these guys have better wrestling than kapmann i think, and the only two that grounded him consistently was fitch and GSP – arguably the two best wrestling grinders in the division.
-Chin = good, only wobbled by lytle. Cardio = good to great, can't recall him gassing. Size / strenghth = HUGE / STRONG. Stand up = technical w/POWER, diverse striking arsenal, solid defense. TDD = pretty good, only GSP and FITCH get down with consistency, and can’t really do much with it. Trouble in the clinch, but hopefully learned from that with story, Sanchez fougth story’s fight against kappman. Overall, movement and precision striking will win this fight, throwing in a few random tds will help as well.
Kappmann – against story gets lit up, story’s striking is wild and has power, not as much power as alves’ nor the same technicality. Trips story down as story appears to start to gas in the 2nd – story's striking is even more sloppy and he clinched up with martin. Basically gets most tds in the 3rd when story is gassed – hoping alves will be well ahead on the scorecards by the 3rd and outpointing on the feet and sprawling on kappman I hope, and cardio is not a major concern.
-Stuffed and outstruck diego on the feet in the 1st, but gets clobbered by diego in the stand up during the 2nd and 3rd. No tds landed for kapman.
-Gets down condit consistently with trips but when on the feet kapman gets beat up for the most part...IS condit’s tdd anything special? Probably not considering he’s been grounded by most opponents who try.
So he got story down in the 2nd and 3rd, partly because of gassing and it probably also surprised story, and he also did this because story – a non striker – was beating him up on the feet. Got condit down a few times with trips, but like story, beats kapman up on the feet. After seeing story against brenneman getting td's at will on story, I wouldn't call story's defensive wrestling special (altough charlie has some of the best mma wrestling in the game).
Chin - not so good. Cardio - wilted against 3rd with shields and appears to slow in the 3rd - many dropped 3rd rounds on sherdog score cards in various fights - overall cardio I would say is good. Size = big but mostly length, not brute muscle like story or alves. TDs - tricky trips, alves must avoid clinch. Stand up - technical and good offense, no cold stopping power but can wobble people, HORRIBLE defense - gets lit up by many opponents with much less stand up skills than alves - can definitely see him blitz kapman on the feet possibly stoppage. Clinch - not damaging but can land the trips from there. Grappling = on top and on bottom pretty dangerous - alves good on top, but scared if kapman gets on top of avles, obviously must avoid being on back against kapman. TDD -= great, some of the most underrated tdd out there, but don't think alves will go for any outside of a last minute td to steal a round, catch martin by surprise?
Overall - IF THIAGO CAN MOVE, AVOID THE CLINCH, and NOT GET INTO A BRAWL / POSITION FOR MARTIN TO LAND A TRIP, then alves should dominate the stand up with distance, leg kicks, and counters. Also, I don’t think kapman will have story’s success in the clinch – story is a big strong brute who was able to muscle thaigo around and was willing to disengage with thiago to throw some bombs - kapman does not have story’s power nor that type of clinch strength I think. Bettttting on bkapman your basicallyy betting on him to replicate story's clinch war or gsp/fitches wrestle grinding..therefore that is a big 'IF' to bet on. Alves early tko aka marquart'd/daley'd or decision.
Regarding Kampmann's chin, I'd actually argue that it's one of his best attributes. He took big power hooks from Semtex and was still standing (some argue it was an early stoppage), as u alluded to Story hit him a lot, especially in first round and he took it. McFedries who is a big power hitting MW hit him hard and he took it. It does say alot about his overall level of defence tho as in order to prove u have a good chin it means u are taking too many shots!
Story's defensive wrestling is not very good at all. Because he is wild and aggressive it makes it easier to take him down, he's also very confident with his submission game so doesnt seem to put up too much resistance to takedowns either. Hathaway also had plenty of success getting him to the ground. Other guys like Condit who Kampmann took down are also not renown for the td defence. Condit again is more than happy to be on his back looking for armbars, triangles and sweeps, and is also wild. Nonetheless, Kampmann still has superb trips and bodylock takedowns, but Im not sure Alves has the style or bodytype to be particularly susceptible to these. Maybe he is as Fitch was able to take him down in both fights with takedowns from clinch rather than from double-legs or singles.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#79That is it in a nut shell. He bangs with the wrong people. He has nice hands but like u said i don't think he has much power either. If i had a gun to my head i would take Alves here just because i think Kapmann will get caught. Alves head seems to be on straight now aday's. I did think the fuker Alves would destroy Story tho. I never thought in a million years Story would be able to take Alves shots the way Story just bullies in carelessly. I do think Kapmann won those fights with Shields and Diego but they shouldn't be that close. The Sanchez one might have been the robbery of the year. As u said he almost had to get his head knocked off to finally realize he could submit McFedries. One last thing Dana kinda sucks these main event guys on these lessor shows (Diego last fight) (Lytle/Hardy)to stand and bang after Rumble went for take downs against Hardy.Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#80is Alves KAmpmann FOTN favorite? Cant really see anything else on the main card delivering as much, plus dana has boners for main events
Anyone taking Mcgee? Catone was able to take CP down rather easily in their 128 bout, but CP was takign the fight on short notice. Mcgee is a slow starter in addition, CP is comign off that huge KO over hamman which either shows power or lack of defense by HammanComment -
PunisherINDSBR MVP
- 02-24-11
- 4983
#81is Alves KAmpmann FOTN favorite? Cant really see anything else on the main card delivering as much, plus dana has boners for main events
Anyone taking Mcgee? Catone was able to take CP down rather easily in their 128 bout, but CP was takign the fight on short notice. Mcgee is a slow starter in addition, CP is comign off that huge KO over hamman which either shows power or lack of defense by Hamman
i like mccall-johnson for FOTN, but will probably throw something on alves-kampmann also. pineda-semerzier also has potential.Comment -
PunisherINDSBR MVP
- 02-24-11
- 4983
#82what happens if you play mccall-johnson or benavidez-urushitani to go 3 round distance, but the fight goes to the 4th round sudden death and ends in a finish in the 4th? or vice versa.
just curious what people think. this would be a first.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#83is Alves KAmpmann FOTN favorite? Cant really see anything else on the main card delivering as much, plus dana has boners for main events
Anyone taking Mcgee? Catone was able to take CP down rather easily in their 128 bout, but CP was takign the fight on short notice. Mcgee is a slow starter in addition, CP is comign off that huge KO over hamman which either shows power or lack of defense by Hamman
Hamman has always had woeful defence...tht was the main issue although Phillipou does clearly have some powerComment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#84Chances of a fight here going a fourth round are small in my opinion. Doesnt it mean that a fight is technically a draw after three rounds?Comment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#86I remember Story taking him down more than once. If i recall Alves keep walking back to the cage like a nitwit and letting Story trap him. I also remember Story winning the stand up battle in the first round with his toughness taking two shots of Alves to his one. It kinda demoralized Alves and he went in that shell of his. If i recall tho Alves lit him up in the third. I had money on Alves and everytime Story trapped him i was thinking what the fuk is wrong with Alves. How in the world do u walk straight back against the cage against a fighter like Story and use no foot movement side to side.
I actually bet on story that fight, but my hype and reasoning for him was much different than I would say now. In retrospect I wouldn't bet on him again against alves in a rematch because of the way alves shucked of his tds. I think alves would be more aware and prepared for the story attack.
And both you and V have said it was more than one td landed by story, and I could be wrong because I am going off the play by play (I have seen the fight but honsestly can't recall how many tds, so going by play byplay), but both play by plays from sherdog and mania show only ONE takedown for story in the 2nd, alves shucked off every other take down attempted and as V said that one takedown alves popped right back up on.
Comment -
FightFightFightSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 594
#88Craig looks to me like he should be at 170. Noke should get his tds and outmuscle/grapple him.Comment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#89is Alves KAmpmann FOTN favorite? Cant really see anything else on the main card delivering as much, plus dana has boners for main events
Anyone taking Mcgee? Catone was able to take CP down rather easily in their 128 bout, but CP was takign the fight on short notice. Mcgee is a slow starter in addition, CP is comign off that huge KO over hamman which either shows power or lack of defense by Hamman
Cardio will be CP's demise imo and like you said mcgee gets better as the fight goes on, the opposite can be said about CP. IF court can survive the first I believe he will win the fight or possibly get a late sub on a gassed CP. I also think he will survive the first if he fights smart - CP has raw explosive power but some pretty sloppy looking technique. Its effective I guess, but outside of his power there is not too much that impresses me in his stand up.
And very good point on the tds, CAtone is a GREAT wrestler though and very under the radar (he clearly beat munoz - I don't care what anyone says...). Yet jorge got CP down, so I do think court can get the td, especially in the last two rounds when CP slows down.
Overall, imo these are solid odds for either guy if you like them. I probably won't touch this as I am not confident in my analysis, but if court gets even or dog odds I might play a line on him.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#90Schambari easily dominated Craig on the ground. Noke could grind this one out.Comment -
Wanna Bet On It?SBR MVP
- 11-17-11
- 1032
#91
5Dimes would probably pay it out as a 3-round decision since their bets are listed as follows:
Urushitani/Benavidez goes 3 rnd distance
Fight won't go 3 round distance
However, they'd probably pay out the fighter by finish prop since it listed as fighter X wins inside the distance verus not inside the distance... However, that may be a bit more contentious depending on what the book considers "the distance"...Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#92I agree... it was a completely horrible fight for alves. I am hoping it was an 'off' performance for him as he has never looked so bad in defeat. I also think alves did not expect a clinch war, nor did he expect story to just stand there in the pocket and trade with him like he did - that was some balzy shit! So yea I think it completely surprised him, threw him off, and demoralized him as you said. I'm hoping alves has seen all types of fights now and is able to fight any style necessary. This is a style match up that I think he will have a gameplan well prepared for, where he can be comfortable anywhere the fight goes and will hopefully be able to control where it takes place - on the feet.
I actually bet on story that fight, but my hype and reasoning for him was much different than I would say now. In retrospect I wouldn't bet on him again against alves in a rematch because of the way alves shucked of his tds. I think alves would be more aware and prepared for the story attack.
And both you and V have said it was more than one td landed by story, and I could be wrong because I am going off the play by play (I have seen the fight but honsestly can't recall how many tds, so going by play byplay), but both play by plays from sherdog and mania show only ONE takedown for story in the 2nd, alves shucked off every other take down attempted and as V said that one takedown alves popped right back up on.
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...aybyPlay-32492
Regardless, point is he did no damage from them and Alves popped right back up each timeComment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#93Solid points. I thought Story got a couple more take-downs, but he certainly didnt hold Alves down for more tan 5 seconds or do any damage after getting those take-downs. Alves also actually got a couple of brief take-downs as well if I recall correctly.
Regarding Kampmann's chin, I'd actually argue that it's one of his best attributes. He took big power hooks from Semtex and was still standing (some argue it was an early stoppage), as u alluded to Story hit him a lot, especially in first round and he took it. McFedries who is a big power hitting MW hit him hard and he took it. It does say alot about his overall level of defence tho as in order to prove u have a good chin it means u are taking too many shots!
Story's defensive wrestling is not very good at all. Because he is wild and aggressive it makes it easier to take him down, he's also very confident with his submission game so doesnt seem to put up too much resistance to takedowns either. Hathaway also had plenty of success getting him to the ground. Other guys like Condit who Kampmann took down are also not renown for the td defence. Condit again is more than happy to be on his back looking for armbars, triangles and sweeps, and is also wild. Nonetheless, Kampmann still has superb trips and bodylock takedowns, but Im not sure Alves has the style or bodytype to be particularly susceptible to these. Maybe he is as Fitch was able to take him down in both fights with takedowns from clinch rather than from double-legs or singles.
If what you say is true about kapman planning to stand and strike, 'picking' alves apart - then I am a happy man. But I think kapman has more of a gameplan than that, I'd be surprised and scared for him if his plan was really to stand with thiago the whole time.
Outside of story, who I think caught thiago by surprise, no one has been able to win a prolonged stand up battle against thiago and win...(and even story started to get lit up when he slowed down in the 3rd, and I think kapman will slow in the 3rd as he has in some fights). With Kapman, however, like I was saying many of his opponets have been able to get off on him, light him up and be successsful on the feet - most of whom are much lesser skilled srikers than thiago imo. I'd be very surprised and disgusted with myself if I were wrong and kapman won a prolonged stand up fight against avles. BUt shit happens in this sport and I've been wrong before when very confident... so who knows.
In all honesty I won't be going as heavy as initially planned. Perhaps one or two more line plays and that's it - it should be close.Comment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#94for such a huge drop in weight his last fight I was very surprised rosa had the cardio he showed. I wouldn't call it a great gas tank, but I would give him the edge in cardio over tehenu. I think you're onto something.. I wouldn't play tehuna at anything over -200 if it were me. No play fight imo. On paper though I'd pick tehuna to get a 1st ko, but if that doesn't hit I'd be scared.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#95for such a huge drop in weight his last fight I was very surprised rosa had the cardio he showed. I wouldn't call it a great gas tank, but I would give him the edge in cardio over tehenu. I think you're onto something.. I wouldn't play tehuna at anything over -200 if it were me. No play fight imo. On paper though I'd pick tehuna to get a 1st ko, but if that doesn't hit I'd be scared.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#97for such a huge drop in weight his last fight I was very surprised rosa had the cardio he showed. I wouldn't call it a great gas tank, but I would give him the edge in cardio over tehenu. I think you're onto something.. I wouldn't play tehuna at anything over -200 if it were me. No play fight imo. On paper though I'd pick tehuna to get a 1st ko, but if that doesn't hit I'd be scared.Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#99Nice, push it up more. I want to free roll this Noke playComment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#100I was loving Noke before I knew who Craig was, but the dude is good and is also a winner. Some guys are just winners, and fighters like that are hard to bet against.
talent/skill + attitude/spirit of a winner = scary combo to bet against.
that said, i can see noke playing it smart and grinding it out.Comment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#101Anyone throwing a flier on Siler?Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#103I might take a shot with Siler. If he doesn't get finished, he could win. Probably 3rd round sub.
Cole's cardio wasn't the greatest at 155, can't be better at 145.Comment
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