Christ like MMA betting

[Jesus Christ]

YTD 38-38-2 +$5,725.82

3-1 tonight +1,500ish....good night for me...on to the FUEL card on Wednesday...not the best card on paper but I'm thinking there will be some real value throughout.

[BIGDAY]

Guy just wins.

Rock on pal!

[Khiaao]

[Jesus Christ]

I normally wait till the day of the event to make plays but I fully expect this line to be around the -185 range at that time so I'm playing it now.

I really like Weidman to defeat Munoz on the UFC on Fuel card...for all of hype around Munoz being a powerful wrestler he gets taken down by pretty much everyone...you can't be more legit on the mat than Weidman..awesome wrestling credentials and they have transitioned perfectly to MMA..kid is a future champ in my opinion...I take nothing from his fight with Maia he took that on very very short notice and had to cut an incredible amount of weight.

I think this is going to be a very very one sided..I'll say Chris Weidman wins via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

*** I will be doubling up on this...enough to win 1,000...limits are set at 500 right now so I gotta wait.

[Vaughany]

Like Weidman a lot, cant pull the trigger at moment tho. Munoz's power and will to win worries me a bit.

[Jesus Christ]

Like Weidman a lot, cant pull the trigger at moment tho. Munoz's power and will to win worries me a bit.

I agree with ya on the will to win thing....Munoz has heart for miles..but I think all of his skills are a bit over-stated outside of his GNP which is straight up deadly.

I just see Weidman putting him on his back and just dominating in the positional grappling.

[Nick Papageorgio]

nice work yesterday with Damien and Silva JC, only 2 of yours I got to play. Missed 1st fight had prior action on Melvin before i saw your post. Get it done pal!

[Vaughany]

I agree with ya on the will to win thing....Munoz has heart for miles..but I think all of his skills are a bit over-stated outside of his GNP which is straight up deadly.

I just see Weidman putting him on his back and just dominating in the positional grappling.

yep no doubt, as long as Weidman does go in with intention of taking Munoz down and showing he's the superior wrestler and grappler in general then he should take this

[PunisherIND]

I normally wait till the day of the event to make plays but I fully expect this line to be around the -185 range at that time so I'm playing it now.

I really like Weidman to defeat Munoz on the UFC on Fuel card...for all of hype around Munoz being a powerful wrestler he gets taken down by pretty much everyone...you can't be more legit on the mat than Weidman..awesome wrestling credentials and they have transitioned perfectly to MMA..kid is a future champ in my opinion...I take nothing from his fight with Maia he took that on very very short notice and had to cut an incredible amount of weight.

I think this is going to be a very very one sided..I'll say Chris Weidman wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

*** I will be doubling up on this...enough to win 1,000...limits are set at 500 right now so I gotta wait.

jesus, im with you on this here pick, but i wanted to point out that its a 5 round fight. do you still think weidman wins a decision, or do you forsee a finish?

[Jesus Christ]

jesus, im with you on this here pick, but i wanted to point out that its a 5 round fight. do you still think weidman wins a decision, or do you forsee a finish?

Holy shit good call..it doesn't really change my opinion tho..still foresee a dominant decision...I don't see Weidman finishing..a lot of his best subs come from a headlock postion..D'arce, guillotine, etc...I just don't see him forcing a finish and risking having Munoz on top of him where he can do some serious damage.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I normally wait till the day of the event to make plays but I fully expect this line to be around the -185 range at that time so I'm playing it now.

I really like Weidman to defeat Munoz on the UFC on Fuel card...for all of hype around Munoz being a powerful wrestler he gets taken down by pretty much everyone...you can't be more legit on the mat than Weidman..awesome wrestling credentials and they have transitioned perfectly to MMA..kid is a future champ in my opinion...I take nothing from his fight with Maia he took that on very very short notice and had to cut an incredible amount of weight.

I think this is going to be a very very one sided..I'll say Chris Weidman wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

*** I will be doubling up on this...enough to win 1,000...limits are set at 500 right now so I gotta wait.

I'm on Weidman too. He's a stud with a 6" reach advantage on the feet that likes to throw the straight jab and land points (even greater effective reach when you consider Munoz throws circular punches). He's the superior MMA grappler and has long limbs that can trap guys in chokes like we've seen with his D'Arce & standing guillotine. Munoz has questionable defensive wrestling at times and his offensive wrestling can also look atrocious like in the Okami fight.

One note though: it's a 5 round fight.

I hit the Weidman ITD prop for $100 to win $415. Sucks 5D caps out so low. I think Weidman has a significantly better implied probability than 20% to get the finish here. The prop went all the way down to +290 before bouncing back a little. I think I'll hit Weidman outright as well rather than increase my position on that prop.

I have a parlay on it's last leg with Not Munoz by 5 round Decision. I think that's a good bet too at -300. I think Munoz's power on the feet & his GnP is the only significant viable concern here. I'm not too worried about Weidman's cardio. It was solid in the Sakara fight (on short notice too) although he won't be able to LnP Munoz like he did to Sakara so it's not a 100% lock that it'll play out the same. Munoz *might* have a cardio advantage if the fight goes deep; we just haven't really seen Weidman in that spot to confidently say either way.

There are a few ways to play this fight. Curious what others thoughts are...

[PunisherIND]

Holy shit good call..it doesn't really change my opinion tho..still foresee a dominant decision...I don't see Weidman finishing..a lot of his best subs come from a headlock postion..D'arce, guillotine, etc...I just don't see him forcing a finish and risking having Munoz on top of him where he can do some serious damage.

excellent point.

[Vaughany]

I'm on Weidman too. He's a stud with a 6" reach advantage on the feet that likes to throw the straight jab and land points (even greater effective reach when you consider Munoz throws circular punches). He's the superior MMA grappler and has long limbs that can trap guys in chokes like we've seen with his D'Arce & standing guillotine. Munoz has questionable defensive wrestling at times and his offensive wrestling can also look atrocious like in the Okami fight.

One note though: it's a 5 round fight.

I hit the Weidman ITD prop for $100 to win $415. Sucks 5D caps out so low. I think Weidman has a significantly better implied probability than 20% to get the finish here. The prop went all the way down to +290 before bouncing back a little. I think I'll hit Weidman outright as well rather than increase my position on that prop.

I have a parlay on it's last leg with Not Munoz by 5 round Decision. I think that's a good bet too at -300. I think Munoz's power on the feet & his GnP is the only significant viable concern here. I'm not too worried about Weidman's cardio. It was solid in the Sakara fight (on short notice too) although he won't be able to LnP Munoz like he did to Sakara so it's not a 100% lock that it'll play out the same. Munoz *might* have a cardio advantage if the fight goes deep; we just haven't really seen Weidman in that spot to confidently say either way.

There are a few ways to play this fight. Curious what others thoughts are...

You are quite right about Munoz throwing circular like punches and doesnt really use the jab. But he has said that he wasnt even able to straighten out his right arm before the operation he had so he didnt have the ability to use the jab or straight right

[Wanna Bet On It?]

You are quite right about Munoz throwing circular like punches and doesnt really use the jab. But he has said that he wasnt even able to straighten out his right arm before the operation he had so he didnt have the ability to use the jab or straight right

Hmm, I didn't hear this quote but that's an excellent point. Loose bodies cause pain when you fully extend the joint capsule but are not painful when you have flexion at the elbow.

I don't think Munoz will be able to repeatedly land the jab given the extreme reach disadvantage but it's a consideration I'll have to rethink.

[Beelzebubzy]

I normally wait till the day of the event to make plays but I fully expect this line to be around the -185 range at that time so I'm playing it now.

I really like Weidman to defeat Munoz on the UFC on Fuel card...for all of hype around Munoz being a powerful wrestler he gets taken down by pretty much everyone...you can't be more legit on the mat than Weidman..awesome wrestling credentials and they have transitioned perfectly to MMA..kid is a future champ in my opinion...I take nothing from his fight with Maia he took that on very very short notice and had to cut an incredible amount of weight.

I think this is going to be a very very one sided..I'll say Chris Weidman wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

*** I will be doubling up on this...enough to win 1,000...limits are set at 500 right now so I gotta wait.

Allahu Akbar!!

Happy to see we are both on this

[Vaughany]

Hmm, I didn't hear this quote but that's an excellent point. Loose bodies cause pain when you fully extend the joint capsule but are not painful when you have flexion at the elbow.

I don't think Munoz will be able to repeatedly land the jab given the extreme reach disadvantage but it's a consideration I'll have to rethink.

Was in one of many interviews tht keepin popping up with Munoz in...he seems to be one of the most media friendly guys in UFC! Might be one of these http://www.youtube.com/user/MMAinterviews?feature=watch

But even then there is no guarantee tht Munoz is suddenly gonna have a GSPesq jab or anything

[Jesus Christ]

I normally wait till the day of the event to make plays but I fully expect this line to be around the -185 range at that time so I'm playing it now.

I really like Weidman to defeat Munoz on the UFC on Fuel card...for all of hype around Munoz being a powerful wrestler he gets taken down by pretty much everyone...you can't be more legit on the mat than Weidman..awesome wrestling credentials and they have transitioned perfectly to MMA..kid is a future champ in my opinion...I take nothing from his fight with Maia he took that on very very short notice and had to cut an incredible amount of weight.

I think this is going to be a very very one sided..I'll say Chris Weidman wins via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

*** I will be doubling up on this...enough to win 1,000...limits are set at 500 right now so I gotta wait.

Firstly I added the money on Weidman now that the limit is raised...so it's $1,425.00 to win $1,000.00 total

Next I will be betting on "Bruce Leroy"...when you look at the match up it's pretty much the same as every fight Page has....he is extremely dangerous for about 3 minutes then he will gas and most likely get choked out...I really think Caceras has some serious potential and incredible length for the division..I expect this fight to look similar to his fight with Figueroa but this time I don't think it will go to the cards to screw him...I'll say "Bruce Leroy" wins via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Round 2

Next play will be on Rafael dos Anjos..this is a bit more juice than I normally like to lay but when I see value in a line I take it...this just isn't a winnable fight for Njokuani in my opinion....Njokuani is a damn good striker but a very one dimensional fighter once this hits that mat it should be over..RDA loses to wrestlers for the most part..I expect him to trade with Njokuani on the feet for awhile to test the water but he will eventually take this to the ground and finish him...I'll say Rafael dos Anjos wins via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Round 1

Last play is one that I imagine most people won't agree with...I'm picking Robertson to upset Simpson...Simpson is getting on in years and has serious serious cardio issues..I think this weight cut is gonna fuk him up something bad..I think after a strong first round from Simpson he will badly badly gas and the sub grappler Robertson will take over en route to a decision win...I'll Say Kenny Robertson wins via Unanimous Decision (29-28,29-28,29-28)









Good Luck

[BIGDAY]

With ya on Weidman pal.

Bol

[Jesus Christ]

With ya on Weidman pal.

Bol

Same to you let's cash it

[Ghenghis Kahn]

which fight do you feel the most confidence in jesus?

[Jesus Christ]

which fight do you feel the most confidence in jesus?

Weidman

[Vaughany]

GL tonight Jesus.... im not so sure about Page gassing...I think most his sub losses have come from sloppy takedowns or after he's been stunned rather then from gassing. But then I remember the WEC days (the best days!) when he was an animal and went three rounds with Jorgensen...age and the amount of battles hes had may have caught up on him tho

[Beelzebubzy]

I got the same here
im uber small on Kenny due to the pierce beatdown
No Rda for me line is too high

[Ghenghis Kahn]

cool, thank you jesus.

[gabe]

Firstly I added the money on Weidman now that the limit is raised...so it's $1,425.00 to win $1,000.00 total

Next I will be betting on "Bruce Leroy"...when you look at the match up it's pretty much the same as every fight Page has....he is extremely dangerous for about 3 minutes then he will gas and most likely get choked out...I really think Caceras has some serious potential and incredible length for the division..I expect this fight to look similar to his fight with Figueroa but this time I don't think it will go to the cards to screw him...I'll say "Bruce Leroy" wins via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Round 2

Next play will be on Rafael dos Anjos..this is a bit more juice than I normally like to lay but when I see value in a line I take it...this just isn't a winnable fight for Njokuani in my opinion....Njokuani is a damn good striker but a very one dimensional fighter once this hits that mat it should be over..RDA loses to wrestlers for the most part..I expect him to trade with Njokuani on the feet for awhile to test the water but he will eventually take this to the ground and finish him...I'll say Rafael dos Anjos wins via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Round 1

Last play is one that I imagine most people won't agree with...I'm picking Robertson to upset Simpson...Simpson is getting on in years and has serious serious cardio issues..I think this weight cut is gonna fuk him up something bad..I think after a strong first round from Simpson he will badly badly gas and the sub grappler Robertson will take over en route to a decision win...I'll Say Kenny Robertson wins via Unanimous Decision (29-28,29-28,29-28)









Good Luck

With you on all, except for Robertson. Simpson should be able to handle this.

[Mercersux]

Liking the picks Jesus. Think it's a Rda & weidman parlay for me. GL borther !!!

[gabe]

No way Guimaraes loses, right? Got him in every parlay, pretty much.

[Jesus Christ]

No way Guimaraes loses, right? Got him in every parlay, pretty much.

I don't know a lot about him but after seeing how Stittgen performed when he made it to the big show I doubt he puts up much of a fight.

[Jesus Christ]

GL tonight Jesus.... im not so sure about Page gassing...I think most his sub losses have come from sloppy takedowns or after he's been stunned rather then from gassing. But then I remember the WEC days (the best days!) when he was an animal and went three rounds with Jorgensen...age and the amount of battles hes had may have caught up on him tho

Man do I miss the WEC days...those cards were just plain awesome.

You may be right about him getting sloppy but I just assumed he got sloppier as he got more exhausted...but GL to you tonight.

[DublinMeUp]

Mind if i ask what books you mainly use JC?

[Vaughany]

Guimaraes has had a tough cut but he should be a good enough grappler to beat Stittgen. He reminds me a bit of Ronny Markes...good wrestling for a Brazilian and thickly built. His on and off training partner and good buddy Erick Silva speaks very highly of him and he spent 6 weeks helping out Wanderlei for the Franklin fight.

[Jesus Christ]

Mind if i ask what books you mainly use JC?

5dimes is the only book I use for MMA.

[Vaughany]

Man do I miss the WEC days...those cards were just plain awesome.

You may be right about him getting sloppy but I just assumed he got sloppier as he got more exhausted...but GL to you tonight.

He undoubtedly gets tired, unsurprising really seeing as he throws bombs 90% of the time! Maybe it was just his will to win tht got him by in the Jorgensen fight but sometimes tht can be enough even when u dont have very good cardio.

Yeah WEC was the best, I can count the boring fights I saw on one hand! The Varner/Cerrone feud, the Henderson/Cerrone fights, all of Damacio fights, and Picketts, and Pettis' combined with Mir's commentary and Britney Palmer! I miss those days!

[DublinMeUp]

5dimes is the only book I use for MMA.

cheers

[gabe]

I haven't seen anyone talk about the Craig/Natal fight. What you guys think? I think Craig's got a good shot.