varkolek's mma/boxing plays

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  • varkolek
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-17-11
    • 230

    #1
    varkolek's mma/boxing plays
    Figured I'd keep a record of things for a while.

    UFC 139


    Rick Story on Points - $100 to win $155
    Martin Kampmann - $100 to win $118


    Mauricio Rua on Points - $35 to win 161
    Dan Henderson - $115 to win 144

    If it were a 3 round fight I'd bet larger and straight on Hendo. If this goes into the later rounds, Rua has an advantage but I doubt can stop Hendo.


    Matt Brown - $300 to win $213.

    When I placed the bet the odds were 1.71 and now are 1.77. Maybe I'll be embarrassed but I don't get why people are betting on Baczynski.


    Tibau-Dos Anjos goes the distance - $100 to win $57.
    Rafael Dos Anjos - $90 to win $138
  • Vaughany
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 03-07-10
    • 45563

    #2
    Good stuff
    Comment
    • rocky mattioli
      SBR MVP
      • 08-26-10
      • 1263

      #3
      Originally posted by varkolek
      Figured I'd keep a record of things for a while.

      UFC 139


      Rick Story on Points - $100 to win $155
      Martin Kampmann - $100 to win $118


      Mauricio Rua on Points - $35 to win 161
      Dan Henderson - $115 to win 144

      If it were a 3 round fight I'd bet larger and straight on Hendo. If this goes into the later rounds, Rua has an advantage but I doubt can stop Hendo.


      Matt Brown - $300 to win $213.

      When I placed the bet the odds were 1.71 and now are 1.77. Maybe I'll be embarrassed but I don't get why people are betting on Baczynski.


      Tibau-Dos Anjos goes the distance - $100 to win $57.
      Rafael Dos Anjos - $90 to win $138

      i agree...good stuff...but i only differ in that i believe a longer fight favors henderson...unless rua decides to utilizethose kicks...
      Comment
      • varkolek
        SBR High Roller
        • 07-17-11
        • 230

        #4
        Damn, won a couple of little straddles and lost the big straight play. I also lost $33 on the straddle with Tibau and Dos Anjos. I thought Tibau would get the decision but wanted exposure to a big win on Dos Anjos.

        Lost about $190.
        Comment
        • varkolek
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-17-11
          • 230

          #5
          Selcuk Aydin vs Ionut Dan Ion

          $130 on Ionut Dan Ion to win $143. The odds went from 2.25 to 2.1 before I got my bet placed.
          Comment
          • varkolek
            SBR High Roller
            • 07-17-11
            • 230

            #6
            Apparently Jo Jo Dan won again but Aydin got the home town decision.

            Also have $20 on Kermit Cintron to beat Saul Alvarez.
            Comment
            • varkolek
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-17-11
              • 230

              #7
              Felix Sturm vs Martin Murray
              Fight goes the distance - $125 to win $50.

              I doubt Murray is able to stop Sturm, and think Sturm is probably not going to stop Murray. The fighters are both defensively minded although I haven't bothered to watch much footage of Murray.


              Chris Avalos vs Jhonatan Romero
              $100 to win $300

              Hubster bought this one to my attention. I've only seen one full fight of Romero and a couple of Avalos but it seems like it's worth a play. Romero has fought longer at a heavier weight, and honestly seems like the better fighter to me. Romero got stunned though by Macias hitting on the break, and Avalos always hits on the break. Don't know what Romero's chin is like.


              Abner Mares vs Joseph Agbeko
              Over 9.5 rounds - $230 to win $57.5

              About $100 of that amount is a deposit bonus with some kind of rollover requirement. I hate bonuses so don't mind if I lose it. The smarter bet would be to hedge both on points since there could be a stoppage due to cuts caused by clash of heads. Agbeko is the only one with potential to get a ko.

              The first time they fought I bet on Agbeko since there were better odds, and he could have won, since the first knock down scored in the fight was Agbeko tripping, and the second was him getting hit directly in the balls for at least the 31st time. But Agbeko's a favourite with some bookmakers now so I'm not taking a risk on that.


              Delvin Rodriguez vs Pawel Wolak
              $202 to win $489
              $8 on a Draw
              Comment
              • hubster
                SBR Hustler
                • 11-23-11
                • 68

                #8
                Originally posted by varkolek
                Chris Avalos vs Jhonatan Romero
                $100 to win $300

                Hubster bought this one to my attention. I've only seen one full fight of Romero and a couple of Avalos but it seems like it's worth a play. Romero has fought longer at a heavier weight, and honestly seems like the better fighter to me. Romero got stunned though by Macias hitting on the break, and Avalos always hits on the break. Don't know what Romero's chin is like.
                It end up being a good bet huh?
                Comment
                • varkolek
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-17-11
                  • 230

                  #9
                  Yeah, I haven't watched the fight yet but he got the decision in California too, where Avalos is a native. I was worried about a home decision. You know a lot of boxers, I'll be following your thread from now on.
                  Comment
                  • hubster
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 11-23-11
                    • 68

                    #10
                    Originally posted by varkolek
                    Yeah, I haven't watched the fight yet but he got the decision in California too, where Avalos is a native. I was worried about a home decision. You know a lot of boxers, I'll be following your thread from now on.
                    Nah, I never heard of the guy before yesterday. I just analyzed their records and watched videos of both fighters, looked at their styles. I thought he would match up pretty well compared to the odds so luckily he did. I ended up hitting the underdog on the female bout too so that's pretty swell. Good luck on the rest of you picks.
                    Comment
                    • ddream1
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-18-10
                      • 695

                      #11
                      there both young studs, those where great odds for a fight that was much closer i thought on papaer aswell, i think at one point it may of been +500 - +450ish. nice pick sir, i was on it as well but just for a bit, regretting not putting more on it now. goodwork
                      Comment
                      • varkolek
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 07-17-11
                        • 230

                        #12
                        Vic Darchinyan vs Anselmo Moreno
                        Over 9.5 rounds - $75 to win $33.75

                        Moreno to win - $25 to win $51.25

                        I think defensively Moreno has the skills to survive, he moves well and has good jab. I haven't had a chance to see all of Moreno's fights, but I've never seen him get rocked. Don't know how he'll react to Darchinyan landing flush so taking a bit of a risk.
                        Comment
                        • varkolek
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-17-11
                          • 230

                          #13
                          I won all the recent plays starting with Felix Sturm vs Martin Murray.

                          The only regret is I didn't bet heavier on Moreno to win. My bankroll shrunk a bit lately and I had hundreds of dollars exposure on this night, so didn't want to wake up and find it all gone. Abner Mares is a great fighter and he struggled with Darchinyan, but he comes forward, whereas Moreno runs around the ring like a better version of Z Gorres.
                          Comment
                          • varkolek
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 07-17-11
                            • 230

                            #14
                            Losses so far: $340

                            Winnings: $974

                            Total profit: $634
                            Comment
                            • varkolek
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 07-17-11
                              • 230

                              #15
                              UFC 140

                              Mark Bocek vs Nik Lentz

                              $310 on Bocek @ 1.68

                              $90 on Lentz @ 2.53

                              $90 on Bocek by Submission @ 3.28


                              A couple of days ago I asked my bookmaker if they were going to offer props on this fight, and they said no. I really wanted to have some money on Bocek by Sub so when the prop came out I tried to buy some back/arb on Lentz. I got confused doing the calculations though, and don't know if the buy back worked. Still have no idea what I did here.

                              Worried about the fight since judges seem to like Lentz, and I thought Bocek beat Miller 29-28 but Miller got the win. Also, was just watching Yves Jabouin vs Ian Loveland, and I thought Yves won every round but a judge had it 30-27 for Loveland. I think Bocek will dominate but you can't depend on the judges. The odds aren't great for Bocek to win but I think there's a real possibility he gets the submission.



                              Dennis Hallman vs John Makdessi

                              $165 to win 273.90

                              $20 on Hallman by Submission to win $58.8

                              There's a question mark on the fight due to Hallman's weight cut, but I think it's a good stylistic match up for him.



                              Jared Hamman vs Costa Philippou

                              $80 to win $152

                              I think Hamman is better in most areas, but seems to be vulnerable to strikes inside his reach. If Costa gets inside Hamman's reach I think he might be able to win.



                              Tito Ortiz vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

                              Over 2.5 rounds - $150 to win $75


                              Igor Pokrajac vs K Soszynski

                              Fight goes the distance - $45 to win $34.2


                              Claude Patrick vs Brian Ebersole

                              Over 2.5 rounds - $90 to win 51.43



                              Rich Attonito vs Jake Hecht

                              $165 to win $68.18


                              Looks like I won't get a chance to bet on boxing this weekend.
                              Comment
                              • varkolek
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 07-17-11
                                • 230

                                #16
                                $45 on Jones Jones by Decision to win 282.15
                                $45 on Lyoto Machida to win 180
                                Comment
                                • varkolek
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 07-17-11
                                  • 230

                                  #17
                                  I messed up the buy back on Mark Bocek-Nick Lentz, so I only got $31 from Bocek winning. Aside from that, I regret not going with my initial instinct on Pokrajac to win, and not betting heavier on Philippou.

                                  Lost the plays on:
                                  Igor-Soszynski going the distance
                                  Tito-Nog over 2.5 rounds - didn't research this one just guessed, plus the bet was too large
                                  Rich Attonito
                                  Jones by decision hedged against Machida to win

                                  Winnings: $567
                                  Losses: $450

                                  Profit: $117
                                  Comment
                                  • varkolek
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 07-17-11
                                    • 230

                                    #18
                                    Antonin Decarie vs Victor Lupo Puiu

                                    $45 to win $112.50

                                    I only had a couple of hours to research this, but I think Puiu has some value.
                                    Comment
                                    • varkolek
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 07-17-11
                                      • 230

                                      #19
                                      Lost $45.

                                      Reportedly Decarie won by a clear margin. I should have hedged with over 9.5 rounds.

                                      I actually looked into the fight because I thought it would be a good match to bet over 9.5 rounds with, as neither fighter has a lot of wins by knock out.
                                      Comment
                                      • varkolek
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 07-17-11
                                        • 230

                                        #20
                                        UFC 141

                                        For some reason I made a bunch of straddles. If I can stay awake I want to bet on Dream and boxing also.


                                        Fitch by decision - 0.4 units to win 0.3
                                        Fitch by submission - 0.3 units to win 3.15u
                                        Fitch-Hendricks over 2.5 rounds - 2.3u to win 0.92


                                        Ross Pearson on Points - 1 unit to win 0.94 (turns out I could have got this at much better odds at a different sportsbook)
                                        Junior Assuncao - 0.5u to win 1.415


                                        Matt Riddle vs Luis Ramos - 1.5u to win 1.05u


                                        Dong Hyun Kim on points - 1.5u to win 1.41
                                        Sean Pierson - 0.75u to win 2.595u


                                        Donald Cerrone on points - 1.5u to win 2.85u
                                        Nate Diaz - 0.75u to win 1.8
                                        Comment
                                        • varkolek
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 07-17-11
                                          • 230

                                          #21
                                          I got killed by Fitch so far. At best my profit will be small.


                                          Celestino Caballero vs Satoshi Hosono – 180 to win 72

                                          Didn't watch much footage, but I think Cabellero should take it.
                                          Comment
                                          • NunyaBidness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-26-09
                                            • 9345

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by varkolek
                                            I got killed by Fitch so far. At best my profit will be small.


                                            Celestino Caballero vs Satoshi Hosono – 180 to win 72

                                            Didn't watch much footage, but I think Cabellero should take it.
                                            On the same play. Also have over 9.5 at +115.
                                            Comment
                                            • varkolek
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 07-17-11
                                              • 230

                                              #23
                                              Lost the play on Fitch-Hendricks, which was my biggest.

                                              These hedges were all supposed to pull through, I won the rest but didn't make much profit. Also won the play on Celestino Caballero.

                                              Total Loss = 0.88 units
                                              Comment
                                              • varkolek
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 07-17-11
                                                • 230

                                                #24
                                                Dyah Davis vs Alfonso Lopez

                                                Dyah Davis by decision - 0.6 units to win 0.515

                                                Over 9.5 rounds - 2.4 units to win 0.776
                                                Comment
                                                • varkolek
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 07-17-11
                                                  • 230

                                                  #25
                                                  Won 1.3 units off the Dyah Davis-Alfonso Lopez fight.


                                                  Keith Jardine - 1.5 units to win 6.3 units.
                                                  Nervous about this one but the odds were too good to ignore.

                                                  Tyron Woodley vs Jordan Mein - 2.15 units to win 0.72

                                                  The odds on both lines improved since when I bet, especially for Jardine, I didn't know what would happen to the Jardine line since it was moving a lot.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • varkolek
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 07-17-11
                                                    • 230

                                                    #26
                                                    Lost 0.78 units on Strikeforce.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • varkolek
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 07-17-11
                                                      • 230

                                                      #27
                                                      UFC 142


                                                      Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater - 0.6 units to win 0.126


                                                      Yuri Alcantara/Michihiro Omigawa Over 2.5 rounds - 1.32 units to win 0.9362


                                                      Antonio Carvalho vs Felipe Arantes - 1.55 units to win 0.76
                                                      Antonio Carvalho on Points - 0.6 units to win 0.828

                                                      I'm worried about this one since Carvalho doesn't have the best chin, but Arantes didn't do much at UFC 134, doesn't seem to have much boxing.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Vaughany
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 03-07-10
                                                        • 45563

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by varkolek
                                                        UFC 142


                                                        Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater - 0.6 units to win 0.126


                                                        Yuri Alcantara/Michihiro Omigawa Over 2.5 rounds - 1.32 units to win 0.9362


                                                        Antonio Carvalho vs Felipe Arantes - 1.55 units to win 0.76
                                                        Antonio Carvalho on Points - 0.6 units to win 0.828

                                                        I'm worried about this one since Carvalho doesn't have the best chin, but Arantes didn't do much at UFC 134, doesn't seem to have much boxing.
                                                        I thought Arantes got the better of Alcantara standing - which is why Alcantara resorted to taking him down and controlling him there. Arantes won the third round as well
                                                        Comment
                                                        • varkolek
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 07-17-11
                                                          • 230

                                                          #29
                                                          I haven't watched the match between Arantes and Carvalho yet, but I still think he mainly threw kicks and knees against Alcantara, didn't use his hands much.

                                                          Anyway, a bad night. I probably should have used a distance prop for Arantes-Carvalho, and I got unlucky on the Erick Silva-Carlo Prater bet.

                                                          Lost 1.8135 units.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • gabe
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-12-11
                                                            • 7405

                                                            #30
                                                            you'll bounce back over the next two cards
                                                            Comment
                                                            • varkolek
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 07-17-11
                                                              • 230

                                                              #31
                                                              Guillermo Rigondeaux vs Rico Ramos

                                                              Guillermo by decision - 1.1 unit to win 2.47

                                                              I'd feel more comfortable about this bet if Rigondeaux was only a head hunter, because I think Ramos can avoid that. But even though Rigondeaux is such a great body puncher, even if he drops Ramos with a body shot I don't think the fight is necessarily over. Also, I can't rule out the possibility of Ramos winning. I think this prop has the best value of all the possible plays like over 9.5 or either fighter winning, but don't know if it will hit.


                                                              UFC on FX 1

                                                              Fabricio Camoes vs Tommy Hayden
                                                              1.4 units to win 0.4651

                                                              Bet this because of what milkncereal said, although I forgot Camoes missed weight. Anyway it's too late now.


                                                              Daniel Roberts/Charlie Brenneman
                                                              Over 2.5 rounds - 1 unit to win 0.352
                                                              Daniel Roberts to win - 0.34 units to win 1.0234

                                                              Wanted to bet Brenneman by decision against Roberts to win but that prop wasn't available.


                                                              Duane Ludwig vs Josh Neer
                                                              1.15 units to win 1.196

                                                              I think Ludwig should take it, but Neer is dangerous and if he drops Ludwig could finish him by sub, or control him on the ground enough to get a decision. Ludwig's chin is too big a variable.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • varkolek
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 07-17-11
                                                                • 230

                                                                #32
                                                                Lost the plays on Ludwig and Guillermo Rigondeaux. Rigondeaux stopped Ramos with a body punch, I was hoping Ramos would get back up if that happened.

                                                                Lost 1.77 units and down about 6% since the new year.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • varkolek
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 07-17-11
                                                                  • 230

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Gabriel Rosado vs Jesus Soto Karass - 1.4 units to win 0.7568

                                                                  Over 8.5 rounds - 1.4 units to win 0.622
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • varkolek
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 07-17-11
                                                                    • 230

                                                                    #34
                                                                    ProElite MMA 3

                                                                    Ikuhisa Minowa vs Kendall Grove - 1.3 units to win 4.225

                                                                    Minowa being such a huge dog makes me think I might be drastically overestimating him, but Grove isn't that hard to take down. If Minowa can do it enough times per round and get top position he should win under American rules. And also Minowa has a harder chin than someone like Munoz who got rocked by Grove pretty bad.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Vaughany
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 03-07-10
                                                                      • 45563

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Munoz got hit with a huge knee by Grove....the fact tht he took the blows tht he did in tht fight yet still recovered and won shows, if anything, that he has a great chin or at least great recovery. Similar to Bisping, everybody seems too think he doesnt have a chin, I really dont get it
                                                                      Comment
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