picks for cruz vs johnson
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gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#36Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#37
i'm sure the return is greater than 2k/+1000Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#39
You're claiming to have made this parlay, so you should know what the fair price is. Unless you're suggesting other people make it, but don't have the guts to make a bet with a 71% edge yourself.
Anyway, at your 73% chance of occurring, the fair vig free price is you laying me -270. So, I accept, your $5400 to win my $2000.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#40LOL @ U
You're claiming to have made this parlay, so you should know what the fair price is. Unless you're suggesting other people make it, but don't have the guts to make a bet with a 71% edge yourself.
Anyway, at your 73% chance of occurring, the fair vig free price is you laying me -270. So, I accept, your $5400 to win my $2000.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
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SATERSTYLESBR Wise Guy
- 09-07-11
- 691
#42I am so glad they teach actual math at my schoolComment -
cheeeseSBR Wise Guy
- 02-22-11
- 784
#43Comment -
GrabakaSBR MVP
- 02-19-11
- 3216
#44Dont worry gabe. Nunyabidness accepts parlays.Comment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#45
Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:
906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.
Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!
No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.
GL everyone!Comment -
bogbatSBR MVP
- 03-21-10
- 1843
#46Starting to think this guy is some kind of reincarnation of Jesuseastsnubs.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#47It is a tough one... My mind / 'on paper pick' say johnson, but my gut says brenneman.
Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:
906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.
Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!
No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.
GL everyone!Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#48It is a tough one... My mind / 'on paper pick' say johnson, but my gut says brenneman.
Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:
906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.
Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!
No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.
GL everyone!Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#50don't read too much into the % -- it only suggests how confident i am in the play hitting. i understand that some of you see me write up a % and get a boner--- just take it somewhere else, fellas.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#53immediately after i posted... what difference does it make? when i make bets, there's always a confirmation button after the first submit button-- that exists for a reason.
you guys are too bored and bite into every little thing... my opinions remain my opinions... get a life... let it go.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#55i'm getting shit for being 73% confident in the fact that my 6 picks will all hit
i say the trigger is never worth pulling if you don't think the odds are at least 55% in your favor
also, i think some of these guys have a crush on me.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#56
It's obvious you've heard somewhere that great cappers pick at 55%, which only has to deal with beating spreads. (And almost nobody can do that anyway, 1 in 10,000 maybe)
You might be the greatest troll of all time.Comment -
v1ySBR MVP
- 05-02-11
- 1138
#57Comment -
bogbatSBR MVP
- 03-21-10
- 1843
#58Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#60You're very confused. You should stop betting, read a few books and then get back to it.
It's obvious you've heard somewhere that great cappers pick at 55%, which only has to deal with beating spreads. (And almost nobody can do that anyway, 1 in 10,000 maybe)
You might be the greatest troll of all time.
I do A LOT better betting than you do. So, maybe you should quit, eh?
"You might be the greatest troll of all time." lol sticks and stones may break my bones, but your online nerd-lingo will never hurt me.
your deadbeat parents are the "trolls," for raising such a shit-head who can't respect other peoples opinions, conclusions, and ways of getting to those conclusions. i'm pretty sure the way you get your %'s has been getting you lots of losses...and i can't say the same for me...so fk off.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#61
No one picks at 70%, no one. Not Billy Walters, not RAS, not Haralabob, no one.Comment -
illmatickSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-05-09
- 5456
#6270% isn't bad. The upper tier guys shoot for around 80%, though.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#63your deadbeat parents are the "trolls," for raising such a shit-head who can't respect other peoples opinions, conclusions, and ways of getting to those conclusions. i'm pretty sure the way you get your %'s has been getting you lots of losses...and i can't say the same for me...so fk off.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#64No, you don't. You're just a liar. If you're picking at 70% against -110 lines over 3 seasons you have hundreds of millions of dollars. The only thing limiting your growth is bumping into limits at every sportsbook. You're moving lines everywhere you go.
No one picks at 70%, no one. Not Billy Walters, not RAS, not Haralabob, no one.
the fact that you don't believe me only means you are impressed by me, so i am taking it as a compliment. thank you. <3Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#66I'm great with NFL, too. If you wanna buy my picks, I would be happy to pay you back if I don't hit above 55% of them. (done better than that over past 2 seasons)
same goes for my picks for the MLB playoffs.
think about it, runyamouth.Comment -
MMAbetMASTASBR MVP
- 05-24-11
- 1931
#67
In all honsety tho I don't see a KO happening from either guy. Neither have been stopped by strikes, I don't even think I've seen mighty wobbled. Cruz has done the chicken dance but he recovers quickly and faber hits much harder than mighty. Cruz also hasn't finsished a fight from strikes in 3 years... I see the same thing as usual, Cruz doing the river dance to a UD.Comment
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