picks for cruz vs johnson

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  • gabe
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-12-11
    • 7405

    #1
    picks for cruz vs johnson
    Shane Roller

    Paul Sass

    Yves Edwards

    Charlie Brenneman

    Pat Barry

    Dominick Cruz


    Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.
  • urge2kill
    SBR MVP
    • 10-27-09
    • 1722

    #2
    73% chance hahaha
    Comment
    • Kaladarus
      SBR MVP
      • 11-11-09
      • 1876

      #3
      I'll take a shot with your parlay at 73%.
      Comment
      • gabe
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-12-11
        • 7405

        #4
        Originally posted by urge2kill
        73% chance hahaha
        my own personal numbers. some of the picks are a lot more solid than others, altogether i estimate a 6 team parlay to have a 73% chance of hitting.

        i hit a 6-fight parlay a couple weeks ago, but my chances for that hitting i had estimated surely above 80%.
        Comment
        • MMAbetMASTA
          SBR MVP
          • 05-24-11
          • 1931

          #5
          Originally posted by gabe
          Shane Roller

          Paul Sass

          Yves Edwards

          Charlie Brenneman

          Pat Barry

          Dominick Cruz


          Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.
          I agree with all these picks, except for I am slightly leaning toward rumble still (although I am planning to make a parlay where I got brenneman as my money pick, so I'll be rooting for charlie haha, however my 'on paper pick' is rumble). Wouldn't parlay them as one, perhaps chop them up a bit / less fights, but I have the same picks for each fight. Gl, this has a decent chance of hitting. I'll post my parlay when I make it, have a few 3 fight parlays I'm looking at.
          Comment
          • urge2kill
            SBR MVP
            • 10-27-09
            • 1722

            #6
            Originally posted by gabe
            my own personal numbers. some of the picks are a lot more solid than others, altogether i estimate a 6 team parlay to have a 73% chance of hitting.

            i hit a 6-fight parlay a couple weeks ago, but my chances for that hitting i had estimated surely above 80%.
            I'm really curious how you came up with 73%.
            Comment
            • gabe
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-12-11
              • 7405

              #7
              Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA
              I agree with all these picks, except for I am slightly leaning toward rumble still (although I am planning to make a parlay where I got brenneman as my money pick, so I'll be rooting for charlie haha, however my 'on paper pick' is rumble). Wouldn't parlay them as one, perhaps chop them up a bit / less fights, but I have the same picks for each fight. Gl, this has a decent chance of hitting. I'll post my parlay when I make it, have a few 3 fight parlays I'm looking at.
              good luck-- yeah, brenneman/rumble was hardest to pick. i was leaning towards rumble for a while.
              Comment
              • terpkeg
                SBR MVP
                • 10-26-09
                • 2364

                #8
                Originally posted by gabe
                Shane Roller

                Paul Sass

                Yves Edwards

                Charlie Brenneman

                Pat Barry

                Dominick Cruz


                Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.
                Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.
                Comment
                • gabe
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-12-11
                  • 7405

                  #9
                  Originally posted by urge2kill
                  I'm really curious how you came up with 73%.
                  yeah, you sure do strike me as a "curious" guy.

                  my previous msg pretty much explains it. simple math, son. i start by taking what % i think each fighter has of taking the fight then adding them up then including possibilities like poor judges decisions or losing a fight that was winning due to a deep cut or injury, etc.
                  Comment
                  • gabe
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-12-11
                    • 7405

                    #10
                    Originally posted by terpkeg
                    Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.
                    Why are you assuming I'm not playing them straight? I play all my picks straight.
                    Comment
                    • NunyaBidness
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-26-09
                      • 9345

                      #11
                      Originally posted by terpkeg
                      Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.
                      at -1000 each, the bet only wins 56% of the time, clearly you're underestimating the surety of this mans capping ability. 73% is equivilant to -1900 across the board, although, they could all be -9900 dogs with one favorite thrown in for spice.
                      Comment
                      • NunyaBidness
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-26-09
                        • 9345

                        #12
                        Originally posted by gabe
                        Shane Roller

                        Paul Sass

                        Yves Edwards

                        Charlie Brenneman

                        Pat Barry

                        Dominick Cruz


                        Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

                        Getting 20-1 on something that occurs greater than half the time is in sell your house territory.

                        At current market value this parlay hits under 1% of the time. Granted the books are off sometimes, but not by the orders of magnitude you're thinking.
                        Comment
                        • gabe
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-12-11
                          • 7405

                          #13
                          Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                          at -1000 each, the bet only wins 56% of the time, clearly you're underestimating the surety of this mans capping ability. 73% is equivilant to -1900 across the board, although, they could all be -9900 dogs with one favorite thrown in for spice.
                          i'd be willing to bet anything the way i do my math has gotten me more wins than the way you do yours.

                          if you're betting that many heavy favorites and you think your shot of hitting it is 56%, then i suggest you make better picks, buddy.
                          Comment
                          • NunyaBidness
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-26-09
                            • 9345

                            #14
                            Originally posted by gabe
                            yeah, you sure do strike me as a "curious" guy.

                            my previous msg pretty much explains it. simple math, son. i start by taking what % i think each fighter has of taking the fight then adding them up then including possibilities like poor judges decisions or losing a fight that was winning due to a deep cut or injury, etc.
                            Ahhh! There's the problem, you're adding up the probabilities. You need multiplication.

                            You: "Cruz wins 23% of the time, all the other guys win 10% of the time. OMG, this is gonna win 73% of the time!"

                            Add a couple more guys you'll be over 100% in no time.
                            Comment
                            • NunyaBidness
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-26-09
                              • 9345

                              #15
                              Originally posted by gabe
                              i'd be willing to bet anything the way i do my math has gotten me more wins than the way you do yours.

                              if you're betting that many heavy favorites and you think your shot of hitting it is 56%, then i suggest you make better picks, buddy.
                              My degree is in maths.

                              I do make better picks. But making picks is the least important part of winning at sportsbetting. Bottom of the barrel.
                              Comment
                              • gabe
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-12-11
                                • 7405

                                #16
                                Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                Getting 20-1 on something that occurs greater than half the time is in sell your house territory.

                                At current market value this parlay hits under 1% of the time. Granted the books are off sometimes, but not by the orders of magnitude you're thinking.
                                You're saying this has less than a 1% chance of hitting? Wow. I guess the 6 fight parlay I hit for the Silva card had a 2% chance. I AM THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                Comment
                                • NunyaBidness
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-26-09
                                  • 9345

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by gabe
                                  You're saying this has less than a 1% chance of hitting? Wow. I guess the 6 fight parlay I hit for the Silva card had a 2% chance. I AM THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                  1) I didn't say every 6 man parlay has a 1% chance. You could find numerous 6 man parlays that would be 10% or greater, that doesn't mean there is value there.

                                  2) Low probability events occur all the time. Something having 1% chance is far from never occurring. But if you're getting 20-1 on something that requires 99-1 to make a profit you are throwing away money.

                                  3) Winning a bet does not automatically make that bet a good one in perspective. Kongo > Barry for example.
                                  Comment
                                  • gabe
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-12-11
                                    • 7405

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                    Ahhh! There's the problem, you're adding up the probabilities. You need multiplication.

                                    You: "Cruz wins 23% of the time, all the other guys win 10% of the time. OMG, this is gonna win 73% of the time!"

                                    Add a couple more guys you'll be over 100% in no time.
                                    No, that's not how I do it. My numbers have been working just fine for me. This isn't up for debate, dude. I gave out my picks and what I think the chances of all of them hitting are. Take it for what it is, there's nothing else to discuss. I'm not going to show you my algebra homework from the 8th grade.
                                    Comment
                                    • v1y
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-02-11
                                      • 1138

                                      #19
                                      So can I bet with you that the parlay won't hit, and you'll give me -200 on it?
                                      Comment
                                      • gabe
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-12-11
                                        • 7405

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                        1) I didn't say every 6 man parlay has a 1% chance. You could find numerous 6 man parlays that would be 10% or greater, that doesn't mean there is value there.

                                        2) Low probability events occur all the time. Something having 1% chance is far from never occurring. But if you're getting 20-1 on something that requires 99-1 to make a profit you are throwing away money.

                                        3) Winning a bet does not automatically make that bet a good one in perspective. Kongo > Barry for example.
                                        Dude, seriously, if you think your chances of parlays you make have a 1% chance of hitting, you really shouldn't be making bets.
                                        Comment
                                        • gabe
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-12-11
                                          • 7405

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by v1y
                                          So can I bet with you that the parlay won't hit, and you'll give me -200 on it?

                                          i get 2k cash if it hits.

                                          you get 200 if it doesn't.

                                          deal?
                                          Comment
                                          • NunyaBidness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-26-09
                                            • 9345

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by gabe
                                            No, that's not how I do it. My numbers have been working just fine for me. This isn't up for debate, dude. I gave out my picks and what I think the chances of all of them hitting are. Take it for what it is, there's nothing else to discuss. I'm not going to show you my algebra homework from the 8th grade.
                                            Picks don't matter. Maths is all that matters. And your 8th grade algebra won't cut it. Should've gone to 9th grade.
                                            Comment
                                            • NunyaBidness
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-26-09
                                              • 9345

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by gabe
                                              Dude, seriously, if you think your chances of parlays you make have a 1% chance of hitting, you really shouldn't be making bets.
                                              I don't make parlays.
                                              Comment
                                              • NunyaBidness
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-26-09
                                                • 9345

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by gabe
                                                i get 2k cash if it hits.

                                                you get 200 if it doesn't.

                                                deal?
                                                I'll take this bet, and more, if you want it. Where are you located?
                                                Comment
                                                • gabe
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-12-11
                                                  • 7405

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                  Picks don't matter. Maths is all that matters. And your 8th grade algebra won't cut it. Should've gone to 9th grade.
                                                  Picks don't matter? tell that to my W column
                                                  Comment
                                                  • urge2kill
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-27-09
                                                    • 1722

                                                    #26
                                                    Adding up the percentages
                                                    Comment
                                                    • gabe
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-12-11
                                                      • 7405

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                      I'll take this bet, and more, if you want it. Where are you located?
                                                      los angeles. you?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • gabe
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-12-11
                                                        • 7405

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by urge2kill
                                                        Adding up the percentages
                                                        your parents failed you.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • NunyaBidness
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 07-26-09
                                                          • 9345

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by gabe
                                                          Picks don't matter? tell that to my W column
                                                          Picks don't matter.

                                                          That's why I can beat NFL year after year after year, while having never seen a game.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • NunyaBidness
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 07-26-09
                                                            • 9345

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by gabe
                                                            los angeles. you?
                                                            Other side of the country. I can arrange an escrow however. Probably not worth the time as I'm sure you won't step up.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gabe
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-12-11
                                                              • 7405

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                              Picks don't matter.

                                                              That's why I can beat NFL year after year after year, while having never seen a game.
                                                              Wow, you must be rich. Can I interest you in some diamonds?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • NunyaBidness
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 07-26-09
                                                                • 9345

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by gabe
                                                                Wow, you must be rich. Can I interest you in some diamonds?
                                                                What a surprise. You backed down.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gabe
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-12-11
                                                                  • 7405

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                                  What a surprise. You backed down.
                                                                  Hey man, just trying to sell you some diamonds.

                                                                  I'd love to take this bet with you, but with a more accurate return. What's a $200 return for all 6 on 5dimes?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • snake11eyes
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 07-28-10
                                                                    • 618

                                                                    #34
                                                                    . This shit is funny. You the one who offered that bet. Now you don't want it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NunyaBidness
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 07-26-09
                                                                      • 9345

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by gabe
                                                                      Hey man, just trying to sell you some diamonds.

                                                                      I'd love to take this bet with you, but with a more accurate return. What's a $200 return for all 6 on 5dimes?
                                                                      You were offered 200, you countered with +1000, I accepted. You can't raise it now.
                                                                      Comment
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