And the odds is out, and the odds makers have once again spoiled the party by setting the lines exactly were they suppose to be.
UFC Fight Night 24
Collapse
X
-
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#71Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#72
The alert system has helped me catch some excellent lines, so it's definitely better than nothing, but for the most part you're better off routinely checking 5dimes to guarantee yourself an opener.
EDIT: Why the hell are Bookmaker getting the opening lines and not 5dimes? What a load of nonsense.Comment -
rocky502SBR Sharp
- 11-14-10
- 486
#73This has actually shaped up to be a very solid card for a freebie. Looking forward to seeing Phil Davis for the first time. I've heard good things about him. Johnson/Hardy should satisfy the Strikeforce rejects as it should end in spectacular fashion. Same with Garcia and the Korean Zombie rematch even if there is no KO. Last one was 15 minutes of barroom brawling. Sadollah is up and coming, and the undercard has some decent prospects like Hendricks and A-Train.Comment -
sirchadwick1SBR MVP
- 06-02-10
- 1375
#76Where are you guys seeing the odds released? Euro books?Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#77Do the lines tend to change much before they're posted on BFO? Brendan Schaub was still at EV when that line appeared on BFO earlier this month, but maybe that was a one-off.
The alert system has helped me catch some excellent lines, so it's definitely better than nothing, but for the most part you're better off routinely checking 5dimes to guarantee yourself an opener.
EDIT: Why the hell are Bookmaker getting the opening lines and not 5dimes? What a load of nonsense.
-210 but is currently -175 on bookmaker so takes a while for them to update.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#78
BookmakerComment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
-
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#80Mike Russow at +210 has some value, as that fight is pretty close to 50/50 in my opinion. Will wait and see if the odds get even better.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#81Lately i think the odds makers have done a great job unfortunately for us. how close do they have their ears to the street? Are they even one of us?
I want more of that brendan shaub line got damit. Trying to make a living but is so hard (lol)Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#82
This forum is great with fight handicapping, but no one seems to have the gambling fundamentals down.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#83Good luck with those "gambling fundamentals". I think I'll refrain from risking over a grand on a guy who spent his last fight getting absolutely clobbered for two and three quarter rounds. Thanks.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#84A lot of these gambling fundamentals stem from betting on sports tht are very different to MMA though. 50/50 but then u have to consider other variables like dodgy judging decisions which obscure that 50/50 estimate.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#85Then you're mistating what you think the true line is or prefer suboptimal EG.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#86You'd have to be a dribbling idiot to chuck 1/4 of your bankroll on a single fight anyway. That's how the majority of people go broke.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#87These need to be factored into your estimate of the true line. Certain fighters and styles are more likely to be on the winning side of bad decisions. Otherwise you can estimate a probability of poor decision, move your estimated true line against yourself, and calculate kelly from that.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
#88
If you truly believe that its not, then you should be kelly staking that amount.
Kelly staking makes it IMPOSSIBLE to go broke, while improving your EG.Comment -
NunyaBidnessSBR Hall of Famer
- 07-26-09
- 9345
-
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#90
If you truly believe that its not, then you should be kelly staking that amount.
Kelly staking makes it IMPOSSIBLE to go broke, while improving your EG.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#91These need to be factored into your estimate of the true line. Certain fighters and styles are more likely to be on the winning side of bad decisions. Otherwise you can estimate a probability of poor decision, move your estimated true line against yourself, and calculate kelly from that.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#92Kellycriterion isnt absolute, plenty of dudes use that and end up going broke due to the high degree of volatility. Kelly betting can be applied to something like Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. With sports betting like MMA, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. Applying the Kelly criterion without acknowledging the uncertainty in the probability can lead to ruin. Yes you can say certain fighters and styles are more likely to be on winning side of bad decisions and therefore thake that into account and use "partial Kelly betting" but that doesnt always work either, majority of people expected Machida to beat Rampage by decision due to his elusiveness and we all saw how that turned out. Your right tho, bankroll management can always be improved!
Would you take this wager? We flip a coin, heads you pay me $1,000 tails I pay you $2,100Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#93
Are u in UK as well Ladle? Have u got a Pinnacle account? They released the Korean Zombie/Garcia line quite soon after it was released on bookmaker so they may well release the rest of lines tonight. Might get better odds on Morecraft.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#94Yeah, also low bet limits make it hard to bet quarter bankroll on one play for some people.
I am indeed. I do have a Pinnacle account, so I'll be sure to keep an eye on the lines. Cheers for the heads up!Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#95
I have automatic refresh on firefox so just have to hve both sportbet and bookmaker open and keep checkign! Pain in ass but has to be done!Comment -
The HOFFSBR MVP
- 07-02-08
- 4847
#96
This is the only thing I like right now. I was big on Struve when he fought McCorkle, and I'll be betting against him again. I think Round 1 is an awesome prop for this fight. McCorkle is not UFC material at all. Guy is an absolute turd.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#97Agreed, Hoff. Morecraft didn't impress me much in his fights prior to signing with the UFC, but he looked fantastic in the first round against Struve. His wrestling was much improved and he pulled off a really nifty pass to mount; if he can do the same to McCorkle, it's finito.Comment -
terpkegSBR MVP
- 10-26-09
- 2364
#98
Correct me if I am wrong, since I have not re-watched any Russow or Madsen fights. But, isnt Russow's game primarily based on takedowns and top control?
I feel like Madsen can nuetralize any takedowns and his stand up seems to be greatly improved each time out.
Madsen seems to have the better stand up and his learning curve seems to be sharp. Does anyone know if he is training full time? I beleive he may be as I know he relocated to Nelson's gym in Minnesota. Russow is a full time police officer, fighting is a side job.
Honestly, was expecting this line to be in the -300's and still see value at -260.
Feel free to chime in with opinions.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#99Correct me if I am wrong, since I have not re-watched any Russow or Madsen fights. But, isnt Russow's game primarily based on takedowns and top control?
I feel like Madsen can nuetralize any takedowns and his stand up seems to be greatly improved each time out.
Madsen seems to have the better stand up and his learning curve seems to be sharp. Does anyone know if he is training full time? I beleive he may be as I know he relocated to Nelson's gym in Minnesota. Russow is a full time police officer, fighting is a side job.
Honestly, was expecting this line to be in the -300's and still see value at -260.
Feel free to chime in with opinions.
Mike Russow is a Division 1 Wrestler and the majority of his victories have come from taking opponents down and submitting them. If Madsen ends up on his back, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get tapped.
While Madsen's striking is better than Russow's, Russow has the trump card of having a head made out of reinforced titanium. Also, as we saw in the Todd Duffee fight, Russow packs a lot of power into those ugly punches. That doesn't bode well for Madsen, as he doesn't exactly have the staunchest of chins; let's not forget that he dropped like a sack of potatoes against Brendan Schaub on TUF.
EDIT: 5dimes lines are out.Comment -
sirchadwick1SBR MVP
- 06-02-10
- 1375
#100I just nabbed Johnny Hendricks at +265 on the opening at 5dimes for 15u! Yeeeeeeeeee! They took down the lines promptly.Comment -
sirchadwick1SBR MVP
- 06-02-10
- 1375
#102Yeah, I was refreshing the 5dimes page every few minutes and the Hendricks/Walburger lines popped up. I immediately put in a $150 bet. Probably should have maxed it, but didn't want to get too excited and lose my bankroll. Now Hendricks is at -350.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#103i have to busted bookies a lot that way, what do you believe happens?
They cancel the bet, without blinking.Comment -
LadleSBR Wise Guy
- 03-21-11
- 835
#104
I hope they let you keep it!Comment
SBR Contests
Collapse
Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
Collapse
#1 BetMGM
4.8/5 BetMGM Bonus Code
#2 FanDuel
4.8/5 FanDuel Promo Code
#3 Caesars
4.8/5 Caesars Promo Code
#4 DraftKings
4.7/5 DraftKings Promo Code
#5 Fanatics
#6 bet365
4.7/5 bet365 Bonus Code
#7 Hard Rock
4.1/5 Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
#8 BetRivers
4.1/5 BetRivers Bonus Code