This fight makes me wish there was MMA live betting
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I've got half a unit on Hughes but I'm feeling less confident the more I think / read about it.Comment -
Penn is going to be too much for hughes even if he comes in half shapeShut your mouth when you talk to Me!Comment -
Toss up. Wait til weigh in. Bj does not cut much while Hughes does( I believe).Comment -
BJ finally went and switched his cornermen for a fight. At least I won't have to worry about the 'yes' men with no gameplan and whose coaching consisted of "fuk him up BJ" lol.
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BJ Penn won't get embarrassed again.Comment -
This fight looks closer than I thought.
I believe that most of this fight will be on the ground.Comment -
I'll take Bj, other than the already stated. I think Bj's skills has diminished a lot less than Hughes since the last time they met.Comment -
hughes i believe will surpise with his stand up.plus he will also be able to take bj down and simply overpower him.Comment -
wow that interview made me feel really confident in my wager on bj. lets hope he doesnt disappoint. i hope bj comes back to claim the belt again and retires on top. guys like chuck and shamrock, the old-time greats who retire on multiple losses make me sad.Comment -
Watch for Hughes to have a very defensive/counter stance. Like a wrestling stance. He may even come out with his palms open and toward BJ. Hughes does good at keeping distance, it's when he shoots that he can leave him self at risk IMO. I see him waiting for his chances and unfortunatly making this a very boring decsion. He will constantly be looking for a counter and get his takedown when he feels right.Comment -
I love the way the line set up is going so far for BJ. A publicly backed dog in Hughes is getting lots of love yet the line has gone and is going the other way. This is similar to Lytle/Serra and I think the result will be the same
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BJ looked great at the weigh-ins btw. He isn't coming in with only 2 weeks of training like he did the last time he fought Hughes.Comment -
I was just gonna ask do you guys think the line will come back down as the public hammers Hughes tomorrow?I love the way the line set up is going so far for BJ. A publicly backed dog in Hughes is getting lots of love yet the line has gone and is going the other way. This is similar to Lytle/Serra and I think the result will be the same.
BJ looked great at the weigh-ins btw. He isn't coming in with only 2 weeks of training like he did the last time he fought Hughes.
Hughes opened as the favorite, I find it strange that the bookies wouldn't move the line back down if action was truly pouring in on Hughes. I think the smart money is pouring in on Penn.Comment -
If sharps and large betters are putting money on Penn, it doesn't matter how the public is betting. Thats why the line is still heavy on Penn. Money volume is outweighing the public percentage volume. Will the line come back down? Hard to say. If it does, I'd expect it to come down to -150 at best, however I dont expect any huge shift . Thats JMO though.Comment -
Lot of BJ lovers here, this makes me think he's stronger than I was thinking, I was leaning hughes with the dog payoutComment -
Yeah but when Hughes eventually got him down before Penn immediately reversed it and got Hughes' back. U are right, he wont sub Hughes off his back but he should be able to get back to his feet, or transition somehow to a better position. I dont see Hughes lay n pray'n him.Comment -
3rd round after BJ easily won the first 2 rounds. BJ injured his ribs in the 2nd round. He could barely get to his corner after the second and was having a lot of difficulty breathing. He was a shell in the 3rd round and just stood there and took shots from Hughes. He went for a desperation shoot-in and got stuffed - fight was over from there. The fact that he won the first 2 rounds of that fight with only a 2 week training camp I think says volumes about this matchup. BJ looked like hell going into that fight. He was soft and chubby and looked like he'd just got up off of his couch after a binge session.Comment -
i like bj standing...i agree with you guys there...but the longer it goes,the scarier it gets...i`m still not sold on penn`s cardio...
he beat hughes in the first...lost in the 3rd...theres a correlation there,imo...
penn has lots of excuses when he loses....
lets all hope he keeps it standing and picks hughes apart...
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He ran into adversity and gave up in that fight. Which is pretty much his MOComment -
Also if all you are doing is looking at wins and losses after the fact, you are going to miss the fact that BJ Penn was very close to submitting Hughes from off his back. The round ended Hughes in a deep arm bar that he transitioned to from triangle. Saved by the bell in the second.
I swear people cap this match up like we haven't seen the two fight before, was I dreaming when I saw those two fights?Comment -
Here is a hint to why BJ hasn't submitted anybody from his guard, he is rarely on his back!
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Adversity in the sense of a rib injury where he had trouble moving in the slightest or breathing? Guys have quit over rib injuries. At least he came out for the 3rd round. There's plenty of other examples of BJ hitting a wall and shutting down, I agree with you there. This IMO isn't one of them. Even when Hughes was able to hold onto a single for 2 minutes of the second round and finally secure a TD, BJ didnt quit. He swept him and controlled the rest of the round. An injury caused him to seize up.If you think he's going to get injured and lose the fight this way then sure, go for it lolComment -
He ended up on his back vs. Edgar because Frankie had the speed advantage, kept him guessing with his angles and transitions, and set up his TD's with combos. Hughes is limited in all of these areas. BJ may be degrading, but it was less than a year ago when he demolished Diego Sanchez. Edgar was a bad stylistic matchup for him. Hughes is not IMO.Comment -
that`s why i love this place...we can have some diversity of opinion without getting our knickers in a twist...
still considering penn in a par...
if davis (and to a lesser extent machida) wet the bed,i may be out on the turnpike monday morning with a squeegee and a dirty bucket of water...
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Nice Article on their second fight at Bloody Elbow:
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As with all of their bouts, Matt Hughes vs B.J. Penn was a surprise to everyone involved. B.J. Penn wasn't supposed to get a title shot at UFC 63. He'd lost to Georges St. Pierre via split decision at UFC 58 and the title shot was GSP's. But then St. Pierre turned up injured and the opportunity to reclaim the belt he'd never lost came B.J. Penn's way.
But with only a month's notice of the fight, Penn came in in less than ideal condition. As he wrote in his autobiography Why I Fight:...I probably trained seriously for about 12 days. Knowing the UFC could call at any minute, I'd been working out, just not as hard as I would have had Hughes been scheduled months in advance. There were still those nights when the bar was going to be open, and there was a chance I'd be in there.For his part Hughes was less than thrilled with the match up. In his book Made in America he describes his reaction to coach Pat Miletich upon hearing the bout was booked:
I've got to tell you, Grandpa, I'm a little scared to fight BJ again. You saw how flexible he is. Royce has nothing on him.But when fight night came, Hughes was astonished to see how pudgy Penn looked:
He looks out of shape. That silver spoon's been putting a lot of food in his mouth. He looks plain fat.Hughes also claims that his training had prepared him to avoid Penn's trademark counter left hook. Unfortunately for Hughes, a right hand from Penn managed to tag him in the first round. From there he ran headlong into Penn's vaunted flexibility as he worked for a single leg while Penn hopped on one foot and pasted him with punches.
In the second Hughes did manage to get Penn on the ground, but that almost cost him the fight. Penn used the Octopus Guard to take Matt's back, as I detailed in this Judo Chop. Fatefully, the torso stretching necessary to take Hughes' back caused Penn's ribs to separate.
No one could tell watching Penn threaten a series of submissions on the ground, working for a triangle choke arm bar that seemed on the verge of finishing Hughes for the duration of the second round. But then time expired and Penn realized just how hurt he was when he stood up.
It was a completely different fight in the third round as Penn moved in slow motion and Hughes was suddenly able to pepper him with punches standing. Then he took B.J. down and moved to "the Salaverry" where he punished a helpless Penn with hard shots to the face while pinning both his arms.
This fight helped cement Hughes' reputation as the greatest welterweight in MMA history. It also went a long way towards damning B.J. Penn as a great fighter who didn't do the work necessary to live up to his potential. "
Also, If you want to see what BJ can do off of his back, here's an article on his groundwork at UFC 63...Gifs included
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Nice Article on their second fight at Bloody Elbow:
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As with all of their bouts, Matt Hughes vs B.J. Penn was a surprise to everyone involved. B.J. Penn wasn't supposed to get a title shot at UFC 63. He'd lost to Georges St. Pierre via split decision at UFC 58 and the title shot was GSP's. But then St. Pierre turned up injured and the opportunity to reclaim the belt he'd never lost came B.J. Penn's way.
But with only a month's notice of the fight, Penn came in in less than ideal condition. As he wrote in his autobiography Why I Fight:...I probably trained seriously for about 12 days. Knowing the UFC could call at any minute, I'd been working out, just not as hard as I would have had Hughes been scheduled months in advance. There were still those nights when the bar was going to be open, and there was a chance I'd be in there.For his part Hughes was less than thrilled with the match up. In his book Made in America he describes his reaction to coach Pat Miletich upon hearing the bout was booked:
I've got to tell you, Grandpa, I'm a little scared to fight BJ again. You saw how flexible he is. Royce has nothing on him.But when fight night came, Hughes was astonished to see how pudgy Penn looked:
He looks out of shape. That silver spoon's been putting a lot of food in his mouth. He looks plain fat.Hughes also claims that his training had prepared him to avoid Penn's trademark counter left hook. Unfortunately for Hughes, a right hand from Penn managed to tag him in the first round. From there he ran headlong into Penn's vaunted flexibility as he worked for a single leg while Penn hopped on one foot and pasted him with punches.
In the second Hughes did manage to get Penn on the ground, but that almost cost him the fight. Penn used the Octopus Guard to take Matt's back, as I detailed in this Judo Chop. Fatefully, the torso stretching necessary to take Hughes' back caused Penn's ribs to separate.
No one could tell watching Penn threaten a series of submissions on the ground, working for a triangle choke arm bar that seemed on the verge of finishing Hughes for the duration of the second round. But then time expired and Penn realized just how hurt he was when he stood up.
It was a completely different fight in the third round as Penn moved in slow motion and Hughes was suddenly able to pepper him with punches standing. Then he took B.J. down and moved to "the Salaverry" where he punished a helpless Penn with hard shots to the face while pinning both his arms.
This fight helped cement Hughes' reputation as the greatest welterweight in MMA history. It also went a long way towards damning B.J. Penn as a great fighter who didn't do the work necessary to live up to his potential. "
Also, If you want to see what BJ can do off of his back, here's an article on his groundwork at UFC 63...Gifs included
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/8/8/...ody-elbow-judo
i`m buying what you`re selling,ecco...but i`m also buying what poppa`s saying about penn being a front runner and i still have reservations regarding his cardio....
that said,i`ll probably take a small flyer on him in a par(praying that he stays on his feet)...more because i think hughes is diminshed than feeling real confident in penn.....
g.l.Comment
