Shagdogy's MMA plays

[Shagdogy]

Final plays are in... UFC 126, 2/5/11

Silva (-220) over Belfort, 3 units to win 1.36
Ellenberger (-270) over Rocha, 4 units to win 1.48
Jones (-290) over Bader, 2 units to win 0.69
Franklin (-140) over Griffin, 1.5 units to win 1.07
Banuelos (+305) over Torres, 0.75 units to win 2.29
Omigawa (+285) over Mendes, 0.75 units to win 2.14

A hefty price on the favorites here, but I'm trying to be honest with myself and just take what I like for winners. I'm least happy with the play on Franklin as a favorite, but I had to take him for a little bit because I just don't believe that Griffin has what it takes on the feet and if Franklin fights smart, he should be patient, keep the distance, and win this one standing with points. If Griffin doesn't brawl, but comes out with a clinch and bully strategy I think he'll do much better. My bet here is on Franklin being the more likely one to follow a smart game plan. Griffin's layoff will have him so antsy to fight that I won't be surprised at all if he just comes out firing crazy.

Biggest play on Ellenberger... heavy juice, but as I said before I don't trust Rocha to have anything for him. He prefers to work from top game and I can't see Ellenberger letting it get there. Rocha's bottom game is not a big threat from what I've seen. Ellenberger has all the cards here. If he is winning standing, then I believe he can keep it there. And if this fight must go to the ground, I don't believe Rocha has the takedowns to end up on top where he is best and will probably end up on his back playing guard instead. As long as Ellenberger is careful with his legs and keeps a good base and spreads those limbs out away from Rocha's grasp to suck them in for leg-locks/heel-hooks etc., he should be able to avoid the sub from the top.

Finally... Banuelos. I wouldn't call this play a flyer because of Banuelos' strength and wrestling advantage. I know that Torres is dangerous off of his back, but we have seen him spend long periods on his back before without getting the sub. It will be a very tricky fight for Banuelos but I think if he employs GSP's combo strategy of takedowns and defense he may be able to avoid the sub just long enough to eek out the decision. I do expect a number of close calls along the way however, if not a Torres sub, but for +305 I liked it.

Good luck everyone! Let's all have another positive night! Should be some great fights too... I'm pretty excited.

[Shagdogy]

Late additions to UFC 126

Cerrone (-270) over Kelly, 3 units to win 1.11
Yamamoto (-115) over Johnson, 1.75 units to win 1.52

[Shagdogy]

UFC 126 Results: - 0.11 units

MMA YTD: (Since Jan. 1) + 2.72 units

So i went .500 with the posted plays here, but lost out with the juice on the favorites. Took too many plays, shoulda stuck with the three I liked best, Jones, Ellenberger, and Silva.

Ellenberger made me sweat! I admit, I underestimated Rocha's grappling ability. His past fights I watched did not look nearly as proficient as he did in the first round. That was some tight grappling. Luckily Ellenberger pulled it out or it coulda been a disaster night. By the way, 30-27 Rocha from one judge, WTF?

All in all not a bad night. Hit a parlay and Silva by TKO that I didn't post here and pulled a small 2 units profit. Still trying to get better...

[Eccocide]

a small loss like that is nuttin to worry about. You'll get em next time! And BTW, Banuelos had one of the worst gameplans I've ever seen lol. I had a small play on him as well and it was a forgone conclusion that it was burned money after the first round. Good thing I had my largest play on Starts Round 3 in that fight.

[Shagdogy]

Thanks Ecco. Yeah, that gameplan was horrible. Did he even manage to touch Torres?

[Shagdogy]

Strikeforce: Fedor v. Silva

Fedor v. Silva over 1.5 (-115), 1.33 to win 1.16
Sefo (+140) over Overeem, .66 to win .93

Parlay: Fedor/Cholish, 1.33 to win 1.15

Parlay: Griggs/Arlovski-Kharitonov over 1.5 rds/Sefo-Overeem over 1.5 rds, .33 to win 6.2

Pretty small night going here... a little flier of a parlay and some small plays. Good luck tonight everyone.

[AnthonySoprano]

Thanks Ecco. Yeah, that gameplan was horrible. Did he even manage to touch Torres?

He landed all ten of his significant strikes. Problem was quantity!

[Shagdogy]

Strikeforce Fedor v. Silva Results: -1.16 units

MMA YTD: + 1.56 units

Quite a slow start to the year... hoping to turn it around soon.

[Shagdogy]

UFC 127, 2/26/11
Lytle(-280) over Ebersole, 4 units to win 1.43
Noke(-190) over Camozzi, 2 units to win 1.05
Bisping/Rivera under 2.5 rounds(-125), 1 unit to win .8
Penn/Sotiropoulos 2 way parlay, 1 unit to win 2.31

[Shagdogy]

Added for UFC 127...
Blackledge/Sotiropolous 2 way parlay, 2 units to win 1.75

[Shagdogy]

UFC 127 Results: -5.15 units

MMA YTD: (since Jan. 1) -3.59 units

[Vaughany]

Bad luck bro...Lytle was a big surprise. I think he may have underestimated Ebersole, thought tht he could finish him wherever it went so didnt have any kind of gameplan.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah... I've been playing with fire lately going big on heavy favorites. I guess I shoulda known it would burn me eventually. I honestly thought Lytle would be able to win the standup on points, which I think he was doing in the first and even early in the second. When he threw combinations, Ebersole just covered up and didn't counter with anything. Lytle didn't do a lot of damage in those instances, but was landing more. I did NOT think that he'd put himself on his back so often. I can see going for a guillotine once or twice early on, but to do it for 3 straight rounds? Every time he'd drop for that freaking guillotine and just put himself on his back I was getting more and more pissed. Poor plan. Oh well, what can I do?

[Shagdogy]

Lets see if I can have a bit of a better night here...

UFC Live 3
Kampmann (-125) over Sanchez, 1.25 units to win 0.8
Dollaway (+160) over Munoz, .75 units to win 1.2
Diabate (+125) over Cantwell, 1.75 units to win 2.19
Roller (-120) over Tavares, .75 units to win 0.63

Good luck everyone!

[Shagdogy]

UFC Live 3 - Results: + 0.82 units!!!

MMA YTD: - 2.77 units

A lot of talk tonight about Kampmann being robbed. I would have liked to see him win obviously, but his lack of aggression hurt him. Diego pushed forward constantly, was constantly attempting takedowns, and was often landing the one bigger shot in the standup exchanges. Very close fight. Coulda gone either way IMO. Pride scoring = Kampmann wins. 10 point must = Sanchez wins.

[Shagdogy]

Strikeforce Feijao v. Henderson
Cavalcante (+155) over Henderson, 0.75 units to win 1.16
Carmouche (+300) over Coenen, 0.5 units to win 1.5
Evangelista (+115) over Masvidal, 1 unit to win 1.15

Wish I had hit the opener on Cavalcante, and I knew I'd want to take him... just got stupid with waiting. Still like him at plus odds, though not as much as +185. Just taking a shot with Carmouche here. +300 in women's MMA is almost always worth a shot IMO, and she's got heavy hands too, so that helps. Looking for Evangelista to grind out a decision. Good luck everyone.

[Shagdogy]

F**k f**k f**k Coenen triangle.

[Shagdogy]

Strikeforce Feijao v. Henderson Results: -2.25 units

MMA YTD: -5.02 units

Hahaha... take notes boys. It's hard to go 3-0 picking losers. Takes skill. Now if I could only get one of these fight cards to take place on "opposite day" I'd be money!

[Shagdogy]

UFC 128, 3/19/11
Jones (-173) over Shogun, 4 units to win 2.31
Marquardt (-300) over Miller, 3 units to win 1
CroCop (+225) over Schaub, .75 units to win 1.7
Pyle (+150) over Almeida, .5 units to win .75
Assuncao (+130) over Koch, .5 units to win .65

That's all for now... gonna consider a couple of doubles with Marquardt and some other favs like Faber, Benavidez, Barboza, etc.

Good luck everyone. If recent history holds true.... I'm doing you all a service here. Just bet against me and you're gold!

[xelance]

I sure hope recent history doesnt hold true because the only bet Im on opposite sides with you is Crocop/Schaub lol. BOL!!

[Shagdogy]

UFC 128 Results:+2.81 units

First impressions... Schaub/CroCop simply bored me. After seeing that fight, I can't help but think that Schaub is just not ready for the top tier competition in the heavyweight division. Not really impressed by any part of his game.

Jon Jones... who's gonna beat this guy? My first thought is that he will hold this belt without a true test until Phil Davis is able to work his way in to the challenger role. I'm not sure that anyone else is going to be able to wrestle with him. We'll see with Rashad, although I don't believe he'll look for the takedown often. I actually expect rashad to keep distance and jump in and out and look for that one big punch. I can't see him being successful with any takedowns until the championship rounds.

Marquardt... still one of the top middleweights? He struggled early with Miller and I actually found Miller to be the much more entertaining fighter in that bout. Marquardt's insistence on getting stuck in submission attempts that he had no need to fall in to (at one point stepping IN TO Miller's guard while his head was trapped in a guillotine) really makes me wonder how his fight with Maia would have gone if not for that early KO. The MW division has a new gatekeeper in Marquardt IMO.

MMA YTD: -2.21 units

[Shagdogy]

Oh yeah... and Shogun was barely hint of his best self. All the credit to Jon Jones, but he did not fight the best Shogun. Not even close.