Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by gabe

V, what was the line for Jimmo KOTN?

Didnt see KOTN or SOTN offered anywhere. Dont think Paddy even offered them

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 02:08 PM

Imagine he would of been around +1000 mark tho had it been offered

**gabe** · 07-22-12, 02:11 PM

5d didn't offer those props?

**NunyaBidness** · 07-22-12, 02:45 PM

it was +700 i believe on bm

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by gabe

5d didn't offer those props?

Dont think so

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 03:21 PM

Ah yeah forgot about BM

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 03:25 PM

On Sao Paulo PK and Fluminense PK tonight..

12:27pm 20-Jul-12

11:59am 22-Jul-12

Soccer
Handicap

Figueirense vs Sao Paulo (+0) for Game.

+103

50.00

51.50

Pending

**Grabaka** · 07-22-12, 05:45 PM

Vaughany....im just watching undercover boss with paddy power. This shops seems to be everywhere in the UK. Why if you are limited dont go place the bets over the shop directly? or do you?

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Vaughany....im just watching undercover boss with paddy power. This shops seems to be everywhere in the UK. Why if you are limited dont go place the bets over the shop directly? or do you?

I've never actually tried betting on MMA in an actual shop. And I only have a ladbrokes near me. It's something I will try out someday soon!

There was an undercover boss episode the other day tht had a guy who lives round the corner from me...he's owns a load of Nightclubs under the "Luminar Leisure" banner...look out for it if u watch any other episodes!

**Vaughany** · 07-22-12, 05:59 PM

Dan Hardy on the Doug Benson podcast... http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/d...es/id281816774

**Vaughany** · 07-23-12, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

On Sao Paulo PK and Fluminense PK tonight..

12:27pm 20-Jul-12

11:59am 22-Jul-12

Soccer
Handicap

Figueirense vs Sao Paulo (+0) for Game.

+103

50.00

51.50

Pending

Both of these plays hit

	12:27pm 20-Jul-12	22-Jul-12	Soccer Handicap	Figueirense vs Sao Paulo (+0) for Game.	+103	50.00	51.50
0 - 2 Brazil - Serie A
	12:27pm 20-Jul-12	22-Jul-12	Soccer Handicap	Ponte Preta vs Fluminense (+0) for Game.	-132	50.00	37.88
1 - 2 Brazil - Serie A
	5:47pm 21-Jul-12	22-Jul-12	Soccer Handicap	Ponte Preta vs Fluminense (+0) for Game.	-143	500.00	349.65

Football

Brazilian Serie A

Atlética Ponte Preta v Fluminense FC

Draw No Bet £103.12

22/07/2012 22:30

Fluminense FC (Win) @ 8/11

2012-07-22 02:38:45

ATLÉTICA PONTE PRETA V FLUMINENSE FC / DRAW NO BET / FLUMINENSE FC @ 1.73

CLOSED

WON

STRAIGHT BET

113£

195.49£

**Vaughany** · 07-23-12, 06:10 AM

Pending parlays:

Treble(s) To Win
Chad Mendes @2/9

Bout BettingWon

Chad Mendes v Cody McKenzie
Melvin Guillard @ 4/11

Bout BettingWon

Melvin Guillard v Fabricio Camoes
Jon Jones @ 1/6

Bout BettingOpen

Jon Jones v Dan Henderson

Stake: £100.00Potential Returns: £194.44

7/19/12 3:56pm	$100.00	$115.05	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Win	7/19/12 8:00pm Brazil Soccer 108 Fluminense (BRA-A) -264* vs Bahia (BRA-A)
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -670* vs Dan Henderson
			Pending	9/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joseph Benavidez -280* vs Demetrious Johnson

7/19/12 11:45am	$100.00	$96.64	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Win	7/19/12 1:00pm European Cup Soccer 352 Apoel Nicosia (UEFA-Europa) -391* vs FK Senica (UEFA-Europa)
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson
			Pending	9/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joseph Benavidez -280* vs Demetrious Johnson

7/19/12 11:29am	$100.00	$129.01	Pending	4 Team Parlay
			Win	7/19/12 1:00pm European Cup Soccer 370 Mlada Boleslav (UEFA-Europa) -692* vs Thor Akureyri (UEFA-Europa)
			Win	7/19/12 1:30pm European Cup Soccer 397 Rapid Bucharest (UEFA-Europa) -360* vs MyPa (UEFA-Europa)
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson
			Pending	9/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joseph Benavidez -280* vs Demetrious Johnson

7/15/12 1:01pm	$250.00	$267.77	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson
			Pending	9/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joseph Benavidez -280* vs Demetrious Johnson
			Pending	8/18/12 9:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2102 Tarec Saffiedine -310* vs Roger Bowling

7/11/12 2:43pm	$100.00	$84.15	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Win	7/11/12 9:40pm UFC Fighting 1102 James Te Huna -390* vs Joey Beltran
			Win	7/11/12 6:15pm UFC Fighting 1852 Marcelo Guimaraes -370* vs Dan Stittgen
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson

6/30/12 4:32pm	$200.00	$115.15	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	9/8/12 11:00pm Boxing Fighting 101 Chad Dawson/Andre Ward Over 9½ -550*
			Pending	8/4/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Mauricio Rua -300* vs Brandon Vera



6/30/12 2:45pm	$200.00	$196.48	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Win	7/2/12 6:30am WTA Tennis 337 Agnieszka Radwanska -615* vs Camila Giorgi
			Pending	8/4/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Mauricio Rua -280* vs Brandon Vera
			Win	7/7/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1057 Sonnen/Silva starts round 2 -390* vs Fight won't start round 2

6/19/12 5:22am	$100.00	$92.76	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Win	6/19/12 7:05pm WNBA Basketball 604 Connecticut Sun -255* vs Indiana Fever
			Pending	9/22/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -260* vs BJ Penn

6/13/12 4:42pm	$200.00	$157.07	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Win	6/22/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Brian Ebersole -230* vs TJ Waldburger
			Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson
			Win	6/22/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1106 Not Fisher inside distance -1275* vs Fisher wins inside distance

Selection Selection Details Result

1

Boxing

Boxing Matches

Kell Brook V Carson Jones

7th of Jul 2012 9:30 pm

Boxing Match Betting

Kell Brook @ 1/9

Win

Selection Selection Details Result

2

Boxing

Boxing Matches

Nonito Donaire V Jeffrey Mathebula

8th of Jul 2012 02:00 am

Boxing Match Betting

Nonito Donaire @ 1/12

Win

Selection Selection Details Result

3

UFC - MMA

UFC Matches

Brandon Vera v Mauricio Rua

5th of Aug 2012 04:00 am

Match Betting

Mauricio Rua @ 1/3

Pending

Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at	30th of Jun 2012 9:55 pm	Total Stake	£200.00
Bet type	Treble (To Win)	Tax@Tax free	0
Number of lines	1	Total stake due	£200.00
Stake per line	£200.00	Freebets Redeemed	£0.00
Channel	Internet	Total amount paid	£200.00
Number of win lines	-
Potential Returns	£320.99

**AdamB** · 07-23-12, 10:48 AM

Vaughany, where are you getting some of these props from in the UK? I've never seen 'of the night' props on PaddyPower and that's the book I predominantly use - do you use 5D or something?

**Vaughany** · 07-23-12, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by AdamB

Vaughany, where are you getting some of these props from in the UK? I've never seen 'of the night' props on PaddyPower and that's the book I predominantly use - do you use 5D or something?

Paddy have always offered FOTN, KOTN, SOTN for PPV events (except 149 for some reason). WH also usually offer FOTN (they did for 149) and sometimes will offer KOTN and SOTN for PPVs. Sportingbet and SKybet also offer them sometimes for PPVs. They aren't usually available until the Friday or day of fights and you have to scroll down to bottom of page on paddy power UFC page and you'll see "Submission of the Night", "Fight of the Night" listed then just click on them. Paddy also offer "Figth to finish quickest" sometimes

**AdamB** · 07-23-12, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Paddy have always offered FOTN, KOTN, SOTN for PPV events (except 149 for some reason). WH also usually offer FOTN (they did for 149) and sometimes will offer KOTN and SOTN for PPVs. Sportingbet and SKybet also offer them sometimes for PPVs. They aren't usually available until the Friday or day of fights and you have to scroll down to bottom of page on paddy power UFC page and you'll see "Submission of the Night", "Fight of the Night" listed then just click on them. Paddy also offer "Figth to finish quickest" sometimes

Ah - I hadn't seen these. Had some pretty busy weekends lately so I usually make my bets in the week leading up to the event or on the Friday in the day. It's a bitch to watch events at 3 in the morning - I'd like to do some more in-play stuff, seems like you can get some steals especially with the mental judging right now.

**The Fobfather** · 07-23-12, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I've never actually tried betting on MMA in an actual shop. And I only have a ladbrokes near me. It's something I will try out someday soon!

I've been wondering the same thing. Does anybody know if they have the same lines as online? Or is there some discrepancy?

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-23-12, 05:26 PM

Struve vs Stipe ITD -300

go go go

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-23-12, 06:06 PM

**Digo** · 07-23-12, 06:15 PM

o0 I'm surprised to see you betting on games of the Brazilian championship Vaugh. Nice hits.

**poopoo333** · 07-23-12, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Struve vs Stipe ITD -300

go go go

-530 now...damn I would have went huge on that

**sideloaded** · 07-23-12, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by poopoo333

-530 now...damn I would have went huge on that

why? struve vs peewee went to the second round, I could see this going 3 easy

**sideloaded** · 07-23-12, 11:10 PM

lol nvm thats the main event? man ufc sucks so much ass. that fight is a under card fight at best.

**TheCalculator** · 07-23-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by poopoo333

-530 now...damn I would have went huge on that

I certainly don't see VALUE at -300. Struve has been fighting smarter so he MIGHT NOT get KOed. He probably won't be able to sub Miocic due to his wrestling. Could easily see this going the distance.

**The Fobfather** · 07-23-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

why? struve vs peewee went to the second round, I could see this going 3 easy

Good thing its a 5 round fight.

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by Digo

o0 I'm surprised to see you betting on games of the Brazilian championship Vaugh. Nice hits.

Yeah, I've had a lot of success with Brazilian 1st and 2nd league recently (It's European leagues that have let me down!). Was really surprised to find that I could get Ath Mineiro draw-no bet at plus odds away at Figuerense the other week. They ended up coming from behind to win 4-3 thanks to a late Guilherme goal. And then I got Criciuma away at ASA or some other team in bottom 5 of league B at plus odds and again they scored a last minute winner. Then I had Sao Paolo PK (they won comfortably against Figuerense) and Fluminense PK and again Fred scored a last minute penalty! So I've been fortunate to have a lot of late goals in my favour! I do think the home advantage gets slightly over-rated when setting the odds for Brazilian games.

**BIGDAY** · 07-24-12, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I certainly don't see VALUE at -300. Struve has been fighting smarter so he MIGHT NOT get KOed. He probably won't be able to sub Miocic due to his wrestling. Could easily see this going the distance.

I agree here. Something clicks when these fighters have to go 5 rounds. Everyone ridiculed me for even mentioning Franklin by dec in his 5 round bout last month. Fighters knowing that they need the gas tank to make it 5 rounds dont go for the kill imo.

Look at Hendo/Rua. During the 4th and 5th round Rua should have been able to stop the fight but didn;t have the power to do so. 5 round fights are tricky dist wagers. These types of fights I actually see a lot more value in fight will see the start of rd 2. rather then itd.

Just my thoughts.

BOL

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

I agree here. Something clicks when these fighters have to go 5 rounds. Everyone ridiculed me for even mentioning Franklin by dec in his 5 round bout last month. Fighters knowing that they need the gas tank to make it 5 rounds dont go for the kill imo.

Look at Hendo/Rua. During the 4th and 5th round Rua should have been able to stop the fight but didn;t have the power to do so. 5 round fights are tricky dist wagers. These types of fights I actually see a lot more value in fight will see the start of rd 2. rather then itd.

Just my thoughts.

BOL

Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.

Especially recently, Weidman/Munoz, Anderson/Sonnen, Kampmann/Ellenberger, JDS/Mir, and Diaz/Miller - that's 5 out of last 8 five-round fights ending in second round

**poopoo333** · 07-24-12, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Agree with this. Getting Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 at -210 or something like that was ridiculous! I believe the last 5 rounder to end in round 1 was Aldo vs Mendes back in January. There have been quite a lot that have ended in Round 2 though.

Yeah, and that was stopped with like a second left!

You guys may be on to something in regards to 5 round fights. It was more of an instinctive thought on the fact that Struve/Miocic are finishers/are finished (more on Struve's part)

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 01:18 PM

**The Fobfather** · 07-24-12, 01:21 PM

V, any thoughts regarding Olympic soccer/football? You attending any matches? Heard that there were lots of tickets still left.

Brazil looks pretty scary with Neymar and Hulk up front and Silva patrolling the back but +160ish for them to win is a bit too low of a payout when you got squads like Spain and Uruguay lurking. Interested in hearing what you think.

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

V, any thoughts regarding Olympic soccer/football? You attending any matches? Heard that there were lots of tickets still left.

Brazil looks pretty scary with Neymar and Hulk up front and Silva patrolling the back but +160ish for them to win is a bit too low of a payout when you got squads like Spain and Uruguay lurking. Interested in hearing what you think.

Yeah Brazil should take it...Im expecting Brazil vs Spain or Uruguay in final. I've got a play on Brazil winning whole thing at +225. I also like Uruguay to win the group and will probably do draw no bet play on them against England.

**The Fobfather** · 07-24-12, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah Brazil should take it...Im expecting Brazil vs Spain or Uruguay in final. I've got a play on Brazil winning whole thing at +225. I also like Uruguay to win the group and will probably do draw no bet play on them against England.

Looks good. Nice odds on Brazil to take it all. Trying to figure out my plays. So far I only have Korea to advance from their group at +180. Their defense isn't the best, but they have one of the more underrated midfields in the tourney, with Ki SY from Celtic, Koo JC from Augsburg, and Kim BK, with the Arsenal failure Park up top.

**Vaughany** · 07-24-12, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Looks good. Nice odds on Brazil to take it all. Trying to figure out my plays. So far I only have Korea to advance from their group at +180. Their defense isn't the best, but they have one of the more underrated midfields in the tourney, with Ki SY from Celtic, Koo JC from Augsburg, and Kim BK, with the Arsenal failure Park up top.

YEah tht could be a good shout, Mexico or Switzerland could easily slip up

**The Fobfather** · 07-24-12, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

YEah tht could be a good shout, Mexico or Switzerland could easily slip up

Sorry for hijacking your thread. Last question re: olympic football.

On 5Dimes, Switzerland is listed as the favorite to win the group over Mexico. Found that surprising. Caught the Switzerland match vs. Senegal and they didn't look like the strongest squad. Any insight on them?