Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Wow. That's the best you got? Fictitious criticisms about the concepts of variance, zero-sum games and +EV based on the word of a dumb, drunk Irishman who ran out of potatoes.

I outclass you in statistics. The only math you're comfortable with is solving what +200 + -190 is. Ten squid!

ha "best you got?" then you go and throw out the easiest Irish gag going...oh how to insult an Irish person...hmmm lets use the potato famine...that's perfect and extremely original. Oh wait, why not enhance it with the stereotype of Irish people being dumb and drunk...the ultimate triangle of insults there

I make more from arbs then u are staking bro. You keep betting $100 and Ill keep making chump change on arbs. We'll ignore the straight up bets like these that I made tonight: (keep doing ur thang big timer)

13 Jul 12 / 11:05

Single

1

Servette v Basel – Match Betting

Basel @ 4/5

Won

£1000.00

£1800.00

13 Jul 12 / 11:34

Single

1

Servette v Basel – Match Betting

Basel @ 4/5

Won

£700.00

£1260.00

[gabe]

Im thinkin tht as well (line dependent obviously). He can take a punch, is very athletic for his size, he's got to big rangy guys in Jones and Travis Browne to work with in training and Browne has fought Kongo before so knows first hand what Jordan should expect. I know many are gonna think tht Kongo will do what he did against Mitrione but tht fight was more do with Mitrione being ridiculously conservative and not throwing enough and fighting out of character. I dont think Jordan is the kind of fighter who would make a similar mistake of being scared to throw. He seems to love just going in there and throwing down. Kongo is plagued with injuries as well. especially with his back..I think all the years and battles he's had are starting to catch up with him.

I like Jordan ITD

[Beelzebubzy]

Cerrone vs Melvin co main In Denver
probably a backup by UFC in case Edgar or Ben get hurt

[gabe]

See how your win % goes down when you include all your plays? So tilting that you talk about going 8-1 on a card with 5 75% favorites.

I hit Caceres at +100, Craig at -160, -165, and -170 which weren't bad IMO. Hit Weidman at -160, -165, and -170 as well. Not my fault the rest of the plays were -225 and above. Winners are winners, Cheese. Ask your uncle Joe if ya don't believe me.

When I went 9-0 on Fuel TV 3, I was more like 30-0 with all my bets that night, but again, only keep record of my plays.

[Vitooch]

ha "best you got?" then you go and throw out the easiest Irish gag going...oh how to insult an Irish person...hmmm lets use the potato famine...that's perfect and extremely original. Oh wait, why not enhance it with the stereotype of Irish people being dumb and drunk...the ultimate triangle of insults there

He probably felt so proud of himself after that failed attempt at a joke.

[Vitooch]

Since when is it +EV to tail V?

He'll just arb out and tie up $1000 to win 10 (s)quid. Then he'll have a hundred parlays of obscure combos like Not Munoz by super haircut x Marquardt by dat dere celltech x Not Stinson by freak poof hairdo injury at -1000.

He may have good MMA knowledge but enjoy tailing that convoluted shit.

[cheeese]

I was hoping to get to the point you just illustrated. 8-1 with an average line of -300 is different than 8-1 at -110. You are doing yourself a disservice by not represetning the totality of your domination.

There is a deeper meaning behind all of this though. You see Gabe...I was the Mexican that bought your bouncy castles. I mean, I'm not Mexican, but knew you would never believe a non Mexican would buy bouncy castles off you so I sent Hector as my proxy.

I couldn't bear to see you hurting and I felt that with a little luck and some proper bet sizing you could be back to going 30-0 in no time. I'm glad my instincts were right.

It just hurts me to see that you don't include your units won so that I can fully appreciate my good deed from the comfort of my bouncy castle fortress. The truth is Gabe.....I want to be you. Respek.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

ha "best you got?" then you go and throw out the easiest Irish gag going...oh how to insult an Irish person...hmmm lets use the potato famine...that's perfect and extremely original. Oh wait, why not enhance it with the stereotype of Irish people being dumb and drunk...the ultimate triangle of insults there

I make more from arbs then u are staking bro. You keep betting $100 and Ill keep making chump change on arbs. We'll ignore the straight up bets like these that I made tonight: (keep doing ur thang big timer)

13 Jul 12 / 11:05

Single

1

Servette v Basel – Match Betting

Basel @ 4/5

Won

£1000.00

£1800.00

13 Jul 12 / 11:34

Single

1

Servette v Basel – Match Betting

Basel @ 4/5

Won

£700.00

£1260.00

Dublin is the stereotype. The truth hurts.

Why don't you post the £1700 bet you made on Servette?

Good news everyone! I got 10 squid for dinner tonight! Please share it with the starving Irishman though... Just make sure the drunkard gets his vitamins first. Otherwise he could get Korsakoff's and sound even dumber than he already is.

[gabe]

I was hoping to get to the point you just illustrated. 8-1 with an average line of -300 is different than 8-1 at -110. You are doing yourself a disservice by not represetning the totality of your domination.

There is a deeper meaning behind all of this though. You see Gabe...I was the Mexican that bought your bouncy castles. I mean, I'm not Mexican, but knew you would never believe a non Mexican would buy bouncy castles off you so I sent Hector as my proxy.

I couldn't bear to see you hurting and I felt that with a little luck and some proper bet sizing you could be back to going 30-0 in no time. I'm glad my instincts were right.

It just hurts me to see that you don't include your units won so that I can fully appreciate my good deed from the comfort of my bouncy castle fortress. The truth is Gabe.....I want to be you. Respek.

Fuel TV 3 was before I went broke...

If you think the average of my picks for Wednesday night was -300, then your math is worse than mine. lol -- but even if the average for my picks was say -500... as long as i made money, i'm happy. guess you'd rather lose on a dog than win on a -220 play. not me, bud.

BTW- I never sold any of the bouncey castles, so if you want 'em, hollaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Vaughany]

Dublin is the stereotype. The truth hurts.

Why don't you post the £1700 bet you made on Servette?

Good news everyone! I got 10 squid for dinner tonight! Please share it with the starving Irishman though... Just make sure the drunkard gets his vitamins first. Otherwise he could get Korsakoff's and sound even dumber than he already is.

You realise there are 3 possible outcomes in a football (soccer) match right lispy?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

You realise there are 3 possible outcomes in a football (soccer) match right lispy?

No I don't give a shit about soccer. It's for douchebag British hooligans...

[Vaughany]

No I don't give a shit about soccer. It's for douchebag British hooligans...

haha ok lispy

[DublinMeUp]

Sorry guys, I was out eating potatoes and getting drunk, what did i miss?

[Vaughany]

Sorry guys, I was out eating potatoes and getting drunk, what did i miss?

U missed the being dumb part

[DublinMeUp]

Na i left that to wanna bet

[DublinMeUp]

I outclass you in statistics.

[ ] statistics
[X] Probability

[Educ8d Degener8]

Jesus Christ (not the board member), I'm half considering buying Wanna Bet On It a puppy to give him the attention he so desperately craves... maybe then he'll stop hijacking all these threads with his hey-look-at-me antics.

Ah, this one, yes, she's perfect... Her name is Wanna Pet On It

[Vaughany]

lol

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce plays so far for tonight:

$100.00	$128.56	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/14/12 9:00pm Boxing Fighting 702 Amir Khan -550* vs Danny Garcia
				Pending	9/1/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	7/14/12 9:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2501 Pat Healy -475* vs Mizuto Hirota
				Pending	8/11/12 11:30pm Props Fighting 1003 Edgar/Henderson goes 5 round distance -260* vs Fight won't go 5 round distance

7/14/12 5:05am	$200.00	$252.94	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	7/14/12 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Lorenz Larkin -120* vs Robbie Lawler
				Pending	7/14/12 9:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2501 Pat Healy -425* vs Mizuto Hirota

[fosho14]

Since when is it +EV to tail V?

He'll just arb out and tie up $1000 to win 10 (s)quid. Then he'll have a hundred parlays of obscure combos like Not Munoz by super haircut x Marquardt by dat dere celltech x Not Stinson by freak poof hairdo injury at -1000.

He may have good MMA knowledge but enjoy tailing that convoluted shit.

Ya no disrespect to the dude, but I don't understand the point of his thread. I raised these points earlier, and no one could respond rationally, the feedback was just a bunch of profanity. The fact that he has openly admitted that his picks and bets are subject to last minute arbitrage and that he may at any moments notice unload his entire dump truck of units from 1 fighter onto the opponent before the fight for a small arb literally gives any potential viewer of his thread zero confidence if they are looking for reassurance in terms of their predicted winner or any particular outcome that they spent time analyzing and forecasting. If you want to make money through strictly arbing, (profiting off the difference in the line variance) rather than putting in the time and research to actually predict outcomes, why wouldn't you just use the effective software that has been created for this purpose? There's so many more efficient ways to earning money through arbing such as mobile alerts and automated software so I just don't get this documented bullshit in a thread, wat? V, I respect your knowledge, but really wish your plays would reflect which outcomes you actually believe will transpire. Please don't take this the wrong way. Just my opinion, and I know many agree.

[Vaughany]

Ya no disrespect to the dude, but I don't understand the point of his thread. I raised these points earlier, and no one could respond rationally, the feedback was just a bunch of profanity. The fact that he has openly admitted that his picks and bets are subject to last minute arbitrage and that he may at any moments notice unload his entire dump truck of units from 1 fighter onto the opponent before the fight for a small arb literally gives any potential viewer of his thread zero confidence if they are looking for reassurance in terms of their predicted winner or any particular outcome that they spent time analyzing and forecasting. If you want to make money through strictly arbing, (profiting off the difference in the line variance) rather than putting in the time and research to actually predict outcomes, why wouldn't you just use the effective software that has been created for this purpose? There's so many more efficient ways to earning money through arbing such as mobile alerts and automated software so I just don't get this documentation bullshit in a thread, wat? V, I respect your knowledge, but really wish your plays would reflect which outcomes you actually believe will transpire. Please don't take this the wrong way. Just my opinion, and I know many agree.

It's quite simple, when I post a play I'll say "I will probably hedge this or arb out" . And how do you that nobody else is arbing out of there plays? I could post that I've got a 100 units on Roger Gracie at -180 right now and then go and arb out and not say anything so it looks like I've jus got a play on Gracie.

[bjpenn85]

I see your point. but lately he hasnt arbed out that much i think. and usually when he makes a big bet, its not to arb out. I just think there is no way around not arbing out plays once in a while when a good opportunity arises. And the big bets made are often plays he has confidence in.

[gabe]

After UFC 150, the next 155 title defense should be at UFC 155, on an all lightweight main card.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Ya no disrespect to the dude, but I don't understand the point of his thread. I raised these points earlier, and no one could respond rationally, the feedback was just a bunch of profanity.

No, actually the feedback was people trying to explain what a +EV bet was, and you did not understand because you are one of the biggest fools who post on here.

In fact, you are so stupid that I thought you just quit posting after Dublin, Myself, and others once again tried to explain what a +EV bet is on another occasion and you still didn't get it.

The fact that he has openly admitted that his picks and bets are subject to last minute arbitrage and that he may at any moments notice unload his entire dump truck of units from 1 fighter onto the opponent before the fight for a small arb literally gives any potential viewer of his thread zero confidence if they are looking for reassurance in terms of their predicted winner or any particular outcome that they spent time analyzing and forecasting.

If you come into a thread "looking for reassurance" in the form of somebody else making the same bet as you, then you are a fool with the mind of a child.

If you want to make money through strictly arbing, (profiting off the difference in the line variance) rather than putting in the time and research to actually predict outcomes, why wouldn't you just use the effective software that has been created for this purpose?

So there is "arb software" that predicts which way the line will move from the opener to closer? Are you a complete moron?

There's so many more efficient ways to earning money through arbing such as mobile alerts and automated software so I just don't get this documented bullshit in a thread, wat? V, I respect your knowledge, but really wish your plays would reflect which outcomes you actually believe will transpire. Please don't take this the wrong way. Just my opinion, and I know many agree.

In other words you want him to "pick winnerz" so you can come in here and "feel reassured" when you and him are on the same play? lol you re a clown.

This isn't quite as bad as you going around telling people not to make +EV bets, though. That was possibly the stupidest thing ever written on here.

[Vaughany]

[Poppa Catfish]

haha these last few pages almost make me want to start posting here again

almost

[Vaughany]

haha these last few pages almost make me want to start posting here again

almost

haha Poppa, wer u been all my life?!

[Poppa Catfish]

Getting fat. Ah the joys of fatherhood

Going to go back to jiu jitsu soon, unsure where I should go now that Camarillo left AKA, probably will go off to Guerilla. Decisions, decisions.

Luke hasn't fought for like 6 months and Kennedy hasn't fought for almost a full year, got to love trying to figure out form for this one.

[jizay]

Ya no disrespect to the dude, but I don't understand the point of his thread. I raised these points earlier, and no one could respond rationally, the feedback was just a bunch of profanity. The fact that he has openly admitted that his picks and bets are subject to last minute arbitrage and that he may at any moments notice unload his entire dump truck of units from 1 fighter onto the opponent before the fight for a small arb literally gives any potential viewer of his thread zero confidence if they are looking for reassurance in terms of their predicted winner or any particular outcome that they spent time analyzing and forecasting. If you want to make money through strictly arbing, (profiting off the difference in the line variance) rather than putting in the time and research to actually predict outcomes, why wouldn't you just use the effective software that has been created for this purpose? There's so many more efficient ways to earning money through arbing such as mobile alerts and automated software so I just don't get this documented bullshit in a thread, wat? V, I respect your knowledge, but really wish your plays would reflect which outcomes you actually believe will transpire. Please don't take this the wrong way. Just my opinion, and I know many agree.

But a lot of what he does is find soft lines, particularly at opener. Finding lines that are poor early is useful. That someone CAN arb out before the fight is a good thing, because it tells you they found a weak line. If you can handle the variance and don't want to cash out before fight time, it's all good. You've still got winning plays if you're killing the closing line, i.e. if you can arb out before fight time.

[DeFactoCrippler]

But a lot of what he does is find soft lines, particularly at opener. Finding lines that are poor early is useful. That someone CAN arb out before the fight is a good thing, because it tells you they found a weak line. If you can handle the variance and don't want to cash out before fight time, it's all good. You've still got winning plays if you're killing the closing line, i.e. if you can arb out before fight time.

People tried to explain this exact concept to him many times. He does not understand the concept of a +EV. So it is no wonder he does not understand the value of BTCL. It is actually a little funny considering this is a handicapping forum.

[Vaughany]

[v1y]

kind of stupid they're hyping kongo/jordan over ebersole/head.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Vaughany, give ma a winner for tonight, Pal.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, give ma a winner for tonight, Pal.

Atl. Mineiro PK line! Or Larkin in Strikeforce but wouldnt go big on it

[Beelzebubzy]

V you on Nate the Great Religious cheater or Tyron Boredom?