Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Just at Amsterdam airport checking out the results now, waiting for my flight back...Pinkpop has ruined me but good to see that JDS and Hardy got the job done!

You're alive!

Not gonna lie. Your lengthy absence was beginning to worry me... Phew

[Rubber Guard]

Yo Vaugh, any insight into the Ellenberger or Oliveria fights?

Looks like Oliveria has dropped all the way to -180 from the -300 opener. I think he wins, but I am a big fan and may be bias. His guard is trouble for anyone. And his striking is better than Brookins'. I like him a lot at 145lbs.

I think Ellenberger wins, but not sure by what. Kampmann can't keep sneaking out wins.

[PunisherIND]

I think Ellenberger wins, but not sure by what. Kampmann can't keep sneaking out wins.

i agree this is a tough fight to call. i probably wont have anything substantial either way, but i did throw a little something on kampmann wins in round 4 @ +2000, and wins in round 5 @ +2800. i think if kampmann wins, it will likely be in the 4th or 5th after ellenberger is gassed, so i like the value on these two props.

[Beelzebubzy]

i agree this is a tough fight to call. i probably wont have anything substantial either way, but i did throw a little something on kampmann wins in round 4 @ +2000, and wins in round 5 @ +2800. i think if kampmann wins, it will likely be in the 4th or 5th after ellenberger is gassed, so i like the value on these two props.

Like this plays might have to toss an uber small bet on either

Great thinking Punisher

[PunisherIND]

Like this plays might have to toss an uber small bet on either

Great thinking Punisher

thanks beelze... GL mane.

[fosho14]

Looks like Oliveria has dropped all the way to -180 from the -300 opener. I think he wins, but I am a big fan and may be bias. His guard is trouble for anyone. And his striking is better than Brookins'. I like him a lot at 145lbs.

I'm right with you, love the way oliveria fights to win and always looks for the finish. It could be argued that this could also be a criticism of his because he gets over zealous at times and has been caught both standing and on the ground, but I feel like he matches up very very well with someone like Brookins. Oliveira will have the clear cut striking advantage and jui-juitzu edge as well. He may however find himself being smothered to death by brookins wrestling pedigree and top control. It's kind of similar to the diego brandao and elkins fight in that it comes down to whether or not you think brookins will be able to implement his wrestling enough to maintain control through out 3 rounds and I certainly don't see brookins finishing oliveria. Personally I think oliveira is much too well rounded and will either hurt brookins with strikes or lock up a sub. My pick is Oliveria and I think -180 is very fair.

[gabe]

Hard fight to pick. Both guys are beasts who are hungry and motivated. Probably gonna go with the dog.

[The HOFF]

Personally I think oliveira is much too well rounded and will either hurt brookins with strikes or lock up a sub. My pick is Oliveria and I think -180 is very fair.

Agree very much so. But hold off because the line keeps getting better and better.

[Vaughany]

you had me scared for a second, but then i remembered pinkpop.

if hes been "taken", lets go liam nielson on this bitch

ha a cross between Leslie Nielson and Liam Neeson

[Vaughany]

Say what you want about Linkin Park ladies and gents...but they put on a one hell of a live show, I was blown away by it!...

[sirchadwick1]

I stopped listening to Linkin Park back in 2007 and I still want to go to one of their Live shows to relive their golden days. Good stuff.

And to stay relevant, I'm on Oliveira at -170 for 5u. Plan on adding 5u more if he drops to -150. I just don't see Brookins wanting to play on the ground w/ him and his standup is superior for sure. Not sure if he can get the sub, but I like his chances to win the decision.

[Vaughany]

I stopped listening to Linkin Park back in 2007 and I still want to go to one of their Live shows to relive their golden days. Good stuff.

And to stay relevant, I'm on Oliveira at -170 for 5u. Plan on adding 5u more if he drops to -150. I just don't see Brookins wanting to play on the ground w/ him and his standup is superior for sure. Not sure if he can get the sub, but I like his chances to win the decision.

yeah im gonna hold out till after weigh-ins and see if the line has improved anymore

[Vaughany]

UFC 146 Review:

Summary of UFC 146 plays:


7.97 units on Hardy at -125 to win 6.376 units;


Parlay: 31.12 units on Rivera (-240), Lawlor (-225), & JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 41.052 units;


Parlay: 12.486 units on Rivera (-240), TJ Grant (-390), Melendez (-440), & Not Mir by Decision (-4050) to win 15.463 units;


Parlay: 31.055 units on Not Lopez by Submission (-3600), Not Cerrone by TKO/KO (-1890), Not Korean Zombie by TKO/KO (-1155), Melendez (-440), Not Hunt by Decision (-1872) (VOID), Not Antonio Silva by Decision (-1750), & Not Mir by Decision (-2300) to win 21.022 units;


Parlay: 6.235 units on Not Stephens by Submission (-2330), Melendez (-460), Not Mir by Decision (-2300), & Belfort Inside the Distance (-177) to win 6.694 units;


Parlay: 6.244 units on Jabouin/Hougland Starts Round 2 (-295), Not Stephens by Submission (-2330), JDS Inside the Distance (-365), & Belfort/Wanderlei to Not Go the Distance (-400) to win 7.641 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Johnson/Struve to Not Go the Distance (-300), Miocic/Del Rosario Starts Round 2 (-235), & Not Herman by Submission (-2795) to win 6.172 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Johnson/Struve to Not Go the Distance (-300), & Brenneman/Silva to Go the Distance (-135) to win 8.416 units;


Parlay: 6.321 units on Not Cormier by Submission (-1660), Barboza (-520), JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), & Belfort/Wanderlei to Not Go the Distance (-400) to win 4.777 units;


6.373 units on Barboza/Varner to Go the Distance at +135 to win 8.604 units;


Parlay: 6.193 units on Hathaway/Krauss to Go the Distance (-210), Koscheck/Hendricks Starts Round 2 (-595), Miller/Diaz Starts Round 2 (-885), & JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-475) to win 8.195 units;


Parlay: 6.375 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Not Kampmann Inside the Distance (-447), Machida (-290), & Aldo (-530) to win 7.481 units;


Parlay: 12.752 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Stout (-300), & Belfort/Wanderlei to Not Go the Distance (-400) to win 10.863 units;


6.332 units on JDS in Round 1 at +185 to win 11.714 units.

Total stake: 137.716 units

Return: 228.154 units

Profit: +90.438 units


This total profit includes 6.132 units from following parlay that was settled due to Belfort pulling out of Wanderlei fight...

Parlay: 9.284 units on Not Hathaway Inside the Distance (-550), Not Barry by Submission (-665), Not Belcher by Submission (-1920), Not Hendricks by Submission (-6930), Miller/Diaz Starts Round 2 (-782), & Belfort/Wanderlei to Not Go the Distance (-260) to win 11.753 units;

And still have three following parlays ongoing:


Parlay: 12.752 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Stout (-300), & Belfort/Wanderlei to Not Go the Distance (-400) (VOID) to win 10.863 units;


Parlay: 6.375 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Not Kampmann Inside the Distance (-447), Machida (-290), & Aldo (-530) to win 7.481 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units on Johnson/Struve to Not Go the Distance (-300), & Brenneman/Silva to Go the Distance (-135) to win 8.416 units.

[Crassus]

Damn son, you destroy on those parlays.

[Beelzebubzy]

Parlay: 31.12 units on Rivera (-240), Lawlor (-225), & JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 41.052 units;

Parlay: 31.055 units on Not Lopez by Submission (-3600), Not Cerrone by TKO/KO (-1890), Not Korean Zombie by TKO/KO (-1155), Melendez (-440), Not Hunt by Decision (-1872) (VOID), Not Antonio Silva by Decision (-1750), & Not Mir by Decision (-2300) to win 21.022 units;

Bam!

And I hate Vitor too

[BIGDAY]

For those who find JJGold entertaining... Today is JJGOLD Roast day. Head over to Player Talk and Get yourself a SBR Casino Free play. Here is my vid. He does a bunch of these Gaming and Control Board vids to random sportbooks. He usualy tries to hit on the chicks and ask them out and all. Regardless. up to 600pt freeplays up for grabs.

Her she is. It was between this and banging my fist into a tin shed... But I am a sukker for his Gaming and control board vids...

Happy Roasting Coach...

[Vaughany]

Munoz talks about Mayhem's backstage antics..

[Imsmarterthanu]

Munoz seems like a really cool guy, seems like a genuine character

[Vaughany]

yeah one of the good guyz

[MMAbetMASTA]

Hey man, don't mean to bug you and I know I asked in teh other thread, but you seemed pretty knowledgeable on jury both this season and the other season... What are your thoughts on the saunders fight??? I know you might not be playing him at that price, but I still think its worth it at -300 ish because he has him beat in every part of the game imo (jury's cardio is a bit of a concern due to all the finishes / lack of decisions but not major)

[gabe]

Hey man, don't mean to bug you and I know I asked in teh other thread, but you seemed pretty knowledgeable on jury both this season and the other season... What are your thoughts on the saunders fight??? I know you might not be playing him at that price, but I still think its worth it at -300 ish because he has him beat in every part of the game imo (jury's cardio is a bit of a concern due to all the finishes / lack of decisions but not major)

You talking about Myles "No Heart" Jury?

[Vaughany]

Hey man, don't mean to bug you and I know I asked in teh other thread, but you seemed pretty knowledgeable on jury both this season and the other season... What are your thoughts on the saunders fight??? I know you might not be playing him at that price, but I still think its worth it at -300 ish because he has him beat in every part of the game imo (jury's cardio is a bit of a concern due to all the finishes / lack of decisions but not major)

Should get the win, sub or decision but no way Im playing him at current odds. Jury has all the talent in the world but is still raw and Saunders is a lot more experienced. Fighting in front of an audience in UFC wont faze Saunders while Jury may be nervous as hell...especially with all the hype he has. If Jury doesnt finish in first round Saunders could get stronger as fight progresses. Im not interested in playing any of these big favourites out of the TUF fights. We've seen the big dogs win over and over again this season, I cant count out there being a couple more surprises at the finale

[Thor4140]

Watching Vick completely dominate and then flat out quit as soon as he got taken down has taught me that there just isn't enuf film out there to be taken these big favorites from tuff. Iaquinta in the final does look like he has some pretty decent heart. How this Chiesa kid keeps winning blows the mind. He just isn't that good but seems to have drawn one nitwit after another.

[fosho14]

I think all TUF dogs have the potential to pull out wins but after thinking about this for quite awhile I think the favorites most unlikely of losing are Iaquinta and Lawrence.

[Vaughany]

I think all TUF dogs have the potential to pull out wins but after thinking about this for quite awhile I think the favorites most unlikely of losing are Iaquinta and Lawrence.

cant bet against Iaquinta cos of the Serra/Longo connection!

[Vaughany]

Faber student left paralyzed after training incident... The sad news of a young athlete being paralyzed will never be softened by euphemisms or optimistic outlooks. Such is the case with 22-year-old Devin Johnson who was recently paralyzed during training session at Urijah Faber‘s Ultimate Fitness Gym in what sounds like a guillotine attempt during a takedown.Sacramento’s News 10 has the full story:
Devin Johnson, 22, was sparring at the facility, located on the 1700 block of I Street on May 14 when he fell while in a headlock.
When Devin arrived at UC Davis Medical Center he was paralyzed. The impact from the fall dislocated Devin’s spine.
…
“What Mr. Johnson, unfortunately, had was injury between his fourth and fifth spine in his neck,” said Dr. Kee Kim, Chief of Spinal Neurosurgery at UC Davis Medical Center.
Johnson’s spine slipped and caused damage to the spinal cord, causing what’s called facet fracture-dislocation. Kim used a metal implant to stabilize Johnson’s spine. It was his first time treating a patient who suffered a spinal cord injury from MMA.

Thoughts go out to Devin and his family from the entire BJPENN.com staff.


Related:

[MMAbetMASTA]

Should get the win, sub or decision but no way Im playing him at current odds. Jury has all the talent in the world but is still raw and Saunders is a lot more experienced. Fighting in front of an audience in UFC wont faze Saunders while Jury may be nervous as hell...especially with all the hype he has. If Jury doesnt finish in first round Saunders could get stronger as fight progresses. Im not interested in playing any of these big favourites out of the TUF fights. We've seen the big dogs win over and over again this season, I cant count out there being a couple more surprises at the finale

yea the big stage and experience is scaring me good points, and you're right -300 is def too steep when there are some 'questions' and expectations lingering for jury... And like gabe said I think you can question his heart / determenation when the fight starts to not go his way.. I also agree that saunders has fought the better dudes outside of the show... I still feel its gonna look like domination for jury and in retrospect we'll all say 'yea -300 made sense', but in the end I think I'm gonna stay away, not worth that juice... thanks dude, cheers.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Faber student left paralyzed after training incident... The sad news of a young athlete being paralyzed will never be softened by euphemisms or optimistic outlooks. Such is the case with 22-year-old Devin Johnson who was recently paralyzed during training session at Urijah Faber‘s Ultimate Fitness Gym in what sounds like a guillotine attempt during a takedown.Sacramento’s News 10 has the full story:
Devin Johnson, 22, was sparring at the facility, located on the 1700 block of I Street on May 14 when he fell while in a headlock.
When Devin arrived at UC Davis Medical Center he was paralyzed. The impact from the fall dislocated Devin’s spine.
…
“What Mr. Johnson, unfortunately, had was injury between his fourth and fifth spine in his neck,” said Dr. Kee Kim, Chief of Spinal Neurosurgery at UC Davis Medical Center.
Johnson’s spine slipped and caused damage to the spinal cord, causing what’s called facet fracture-dislocation. Kim used a metal implant to stabilize Johnson’s spine. It was his first time treating a patient who suffered a spinal cord injury from MMA.

Thoughts go out to Devin and his family from the entire BJPENN.com staff.


Related:

wow, how horrible... 22 years old, man... Faber and the camp must be devastated. That's rough, how sad for him and mma.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Hey man one more thing, don't mean to blow up your thread.

What you think about cruishank at -220 SU?? What's your breakdown...?

[Vaughany]

Only plays so far:


10.053 units on Holloway at -103 to win 9.76 units.

I capped Holloway as slight favourite at -110 to -120 range so had to play him at -103. Not impressed with Schilling, and don't like backing guys who are still working full-time. Schilling will need to be aggressive early and look to rush in and take Holloway down as soon as possible as I dont believe he has the striking to set the take-downs up. Obviously there is a very good chance tht Schilling takes Holloway down at some point and gets the sub and could also take a decision, however Schilling has never been past the first round and is an aggressive type of fighter who wont look to just laynpray or grind his way to a decision so will give up position in search of submissions, so I think he'll either get the early sub or lose by TKO or decision. Holloway has also been at Gracie Technics for past 10 months, as the name suggests a BJJ based gym so has been focusing more on his ground game with Pedro Sauer blackbelt Rylan Lizares and also his buddy Dustin Kimura who is a big prospect with solid ground game, so I don't think it's necessarily a guarantee tht he gets subbed if Schilling does take him down.


Parlay: 6.375 units on JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-900), Not Kampmann Inside the Distance (-447), Machida (-290), & Aldo (-530) to win 7.481 units;

Also have a risk-free play on Oliveira to win 6.6 units.

[Vaughany]

Small profit for the night. Same old story, should of had more faith in Holloway who I liked to win tht when the fight was first announced, and I really need to learn to not count Kampmann out in any fight!

[gabe]

Small profit for the night. Same old story, should of had more faith in Holloway who I liked to win tht when the fight was first announced, and I really need to learn to not count Kampmann out in any fight!

Me, too, bro. I'm never betting against Kampmann... unless I'm much more confident in his opponent than I was in Ellenberger.

At least I went all in in Holloway... still had a losing night, though... all because I had to have action on every damn fight... and I went with the TUF trend of betting the dogs, and I paid dearly... the only dog I didn't bet was the only one that was an actual pick of mine... Only reason I didn't bet it is 'cos I made a deal with the man upstairs that if Holloway won, I was done betting for the rest of the night... Had no idea Ellenberger would ruin all my parlays... Instead of being up huge, I'm down kiiinda big. All was riding on Ellenberger... then the AZ Dbacks ruined me, too. Had them in a huge parlay with Holloway and Lawrence.

[Vaughany]

Me, too, bro. I'm never betting against Kampmann... unless I'm much more confident in his opponent than I was in Ellenberger.

At least I went all in in Holloway... still had a losing night, though... all because I had to have action on every damn fight... and I went with the TUF trend of betting the dogs, and I paid dearly... the only dog I didn't bet was the only one that was an actual pick of mine... Only reason I didn't bet it is 'cos I made a deal with the man upstairs that if Holloway won, I was done betting for the rest of the night... Had no idea Ellenberger would ruin all my parlays... Instead of being up huge, I'm down kiiinda big. All was riding on Ellenberger... then the AZ Dbacks ruined me, too. Had them in a huge parlay with Holloway and Lawrence.

yeah, thts why im trying to scale back on amount of plays I make. I get caught up in betting on fighters just for the action as well sometimes and nothing more annoying when ur most confident play is cancelled out by a load of other plays tht u weren't tht confident in (such as me with Not Kampmann inside the distance). All about quality over quantity I guess. All good bruva, next couple of events are the ones I'm more interested in...like a certain Armenian a lot in the next event!

[gabe]

yeah, thts why im trying to scale back on amount of plays I make. I get caught up in betting on fighters just for the action as well sometimes and nothing more annoying when ur most confident play is cancelled out by a load of other plays tht u weren't tht confident in (such as me with Not Kampmann inside the distance). All about quality over quantity I guess. All good bruva, next couple of events are the ones I'm more interested in...like a certain Armenian a lot in the next event!

Me, too, I really hope the line on that fight isn't bad...

What do you make of Pyle vs Neer? I'm backing Neer, hope you are too, since we backed him together last time around.

[Vitooch]

Me, too, I really hope the line on that fight isn't bad...

What do you make of Pyle vs Neer? I'm backing Neer, hope you are too, since we backed him together last time around.

I'm liking Not Pyle Inside the Distance...almost parlayed him with Justin Lawrence and Sam Stout