Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**bjpenn85** · 02-02-12, 03:56 AM

yes sir. i put 14 units on boylesports for 5 mins ago...the line moved instantly to 1.40. I played another 20 units on that...

Ill guess youre 41 units, moved the line single handedly from 1.50 to 1.44. What can i say F 98474%&$$#$"#"#" you V!!!!!!!!!!!

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by gabe

cousin vaughany, where do you see the alves/kampmann line ending up by fight time?

Alves might reach -150, will probably stay between -125 and -150 though.

I cant do anything on twitter at moment btw...think Hughes has reported me or something!

**gabe** · 02-02-12, 04:03 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Alves might reach -150, will probably stay between -125 and -150 though. I cant do anything on twitter at moment btw...think Hughes has reported me or something!

what u mean cant do anything? gives u an error when u try to tweet?

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by gabe

what u mean cant do anything? gives u an error when u try to tweet?

cant log-in. I can see tweets and messages through my yahoo email tho

**gabe** · 02-02-12, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

cant log-in. I can see tweets and messages through my yahoo email tho

what does it say when u try to log in? incorrect pw?

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 04:56 AM

Condit interview... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FahQe...feature=relmfu

Saying all the right things..".not getting coaxed in to a face-punching competition"...

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 05:31 AM

Condit open workout: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jneERwpI9Qs

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 05:32 AM

Diaz interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKTQx...feature=relmfu

**Mr.Kitty** · 02-02-12, 06:27 AM

I have noticed that fighters who just had a baby and especially its first usually tend to win. The only time I seen someone lose was Demian Maia who had his first child prior to the Munoz fight. It may very well be an insignificant trend but still something interesting to follow up on. The "new baby" effect

, this must mean that Condit wins!

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

I have noticed that fighters who just had a baby and especially its first usually tend to win. The only time I seen someone lose was Demian Maia who had his first child prior to the Munoz fight. It may very well be an insignificant trend but still something interesting to follow up on. The "new baby" effect

, this must mean that Condit wins!

The "new baby effect" phenonemem has been brought up before on here! I remember Poppa Catfish and I did a tally on it at one point as there was a spell when a few fighters won within weeks/days of having a new kid! Think it started when Matt Brown beat Wilks!

**Mr.Kitty** · 02-02-12, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

The "new baby effect" phenonemem has been brought up before on here! I remember Poppa Catfish and I did a tally on it at one point as there was a spell when a few fighters won within weeks/days of having a new kid! Think it started when Matt Brown beat Wilks!

Dang! I hoped I had found something revolutionary!

No, but in all seriousness, I truly believe the mental side is an angle many overlook when you bet. If you do diligent research you can find good things. The first thing that comes to mind is the death of Shawn Tompkins. You can clearly see a pattern of how that affected his fighters mentally, Hominick, Stout and Roop lost. There are obviously other factors at play but Hominick is the clearest example.

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 06:57 AM

lol

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 07:04 AM

Added:

Parlay: 6.317 units on Brown (-300), Poirier (-400), & Not Diaz Inside the Distance (-160) to win 10.791 units;

If Poirier and Brown are successful I'll probably arb with Diaz inside.

Parlay (double): 6.316 units on Koscheck/Pierce to Not go the Distance at +170 to win 10.737 units.

Will probably arb out of this or hedge with Koscheck by Decision.

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 07:17 AM

Brandon Vera vs Thiago Silva rematch at UFC on FX 3. Also, Lawlor vs Jason MacDonald

**gabe** · 02-02-12, 07:18 AM

On Kos, too, eh?

**gabe** · 02-02-12, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Brandon Vera vs Thiago Silva rematch at UFC on FX 3. Also, Lawlor vs Jason MacDonald

Lawler/MacDonald is old news braah

UFC on FOX 3 looks great! Nate vs Jim and Pat Barry vs Lavar Johnson!

**gabe** · 02-02-12, 07:24 AM

Byron Bloodworth lost to Mike Easton while his wife was in the hospital w/ baby.

it was the only reason i made a small bet on him. </3

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Byron Bloodworth lost to Mike Easton while his wife was in the hospital w/ baby.

it was the only reason i made a small bet on him. </3

Ahh baby was only just born tho...the "new baby phenomena" didnt have time to kick in

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by gabe

On Kos, too, eh?

Not really, I think Pierce has a decent chance - especially if Koscheck is overlooking him which he seems to be doing, and I like tht Pierce's strategy is to push forward and put Koscheck on his heels. Kos isnt the great striker that he seems to think he is, and we've never seen him display any counter-striking skills as he's never been on the back foot (except when GSP jabbed him to death). Just think tht Koscheck does have more ways to win and if it goes distance Koscheck is likely to get the nod just because he'll be the one with top position more often than not if it goes to the ground. If Pierce does push forward then Koscheck probably will revert back to looking for take-downs as he'll be out of his comfort zone - he likes to push forward sticking out the left hand and throwing the big overhand right...not easy to do tht when u are backing up

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 10:04 AM

Condit... ""The last part of that [primetime] episode was the Nick Diaz - GSP show"...

Carlos Condit Happy to Spoil Everyone's GSP vs. Diaz Party

http://www.mmafighting.com/2012/2/1/2765270/carlos-condit-happy-to-spoil-everyones-gsp-vs-diaz-party

Carlos Condit discusses his upcoming fight against Nick Diaz, his thoughts on the Primetime experience, his thoughts on Georges St-Pierre rooting for Diaz to win, the way he expects the fight to play out and more.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-12, 10:17 AM

V, I am on the Leroy side here at +150, I think he did great against Mackens and Hettes and obviously looked great against Cole (or Cole is now a can). Do you think the gameplan for Figs, is to take Leroy down here as he has a tendency to give up his back? Moreover, Leroy looked for subs from the bottom against Cole instead of trying to get back up. I prefer to take an athletically superior fighter in the 'coin-flip' matchups

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

V, I am on the Leroy side here at +150, I think he did great against Mackens and Hettes and obviously looked great against Cole (or Cole is now a can). Do you think the gameplan for Figs, is to take Leroy down here as he has a tendency to give up his back? Moreover, Leroy looked for subs from the bottom against Cole instead of trying to get back up. I prefer to take an athletically superior fighter in the 'coin-flip' matchups

Didnt he get dominated by Semerzier? He did okay against Hettes, and his performance is more significant after seeing how easily Hettes dominated Nam Phan. I doubt Fig will go out there looking to get take-downs - if it's there he'll take it, but he's a striker first and foremost and will want to keep it standing for the most part. Cole isnt a can but his performance against Leroy was very underwhelming. I doubt Figueroa will be so tentative with his striking

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-12, 10:29 AM

You are right about the Semerzier fight. Thanks for your help.
Sticking with the Small Leroy play .6 +150

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 10:29 AM

Cant knock a play on Leroy at those odds

**NunyaBidness** · 02-02-12, 02:26 PM

The Mackens and Hettes fights were both at 145, fwiw. It's a genuinely hard fight to cap, both Figueroa and Caceres looked great in their last outings, but their opposition was fairly poor. As V said, after watching Hettes last fight, Caceres performance looks much better in retrospect.

Looks like a pick-em to me. Had to take the +155.

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 02:52 PM

Only thing tht makes me favour Figueroa its that he has a greater chance of getting a TKO or Sub

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-12, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Only thing tht makes me favour Figueroa its that he has a greater chance of getting a TKO or Sub

I do agree with this. I like the price I grabbed Alex to out jab Figueroa.

Contender for FOTN? Obviously Condit/Diaz is the favorite, prolly as low as +175

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 03:06 PM

Yeah should be a FOTN the candidate...if the main event wasn't so exciting I'd probably really like the chances of Fig/Caceres

**GNI** · 02-02-12, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I do agree with this. I like the price I grabbed Alex to out jab Figueroa.

Contender for FOTN? Obviously Condit/Diaz is the favorite, prolly as low as +175

isnt picking a south paw to outjab an orthodox fighter a bit risky?

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by GNI

isnt picking a south paw to outjab an orthodox fighter a bit risky?

Caceres doesnt really jab anyway! Just throws a lot of flashy kicks and combinations

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-12, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Caceres doesnt really jab anyway! Just throws a lot of flashy kicks and combinations

His jab worked against Cole iirc

**Vaughany** · 02-02-12, 05:45 PM

Adding:

0.374 units on Thompson by TKO/KO at +350 to win 1.309 units;

0.332 units on Poirier by Submission at +400 to win 1.328 units;

2.036 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go Over 2.5 Rnds at -162.5 to win 1.253 units;

1.724 units on Barao/Jorgensen to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.254 units.

**badbeatbobby** · 02-02-12, 10:01 PM

What is your twitter Vaughany?

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-02-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Not really, I think Pierce has a decent chance - especially if Koscheck is overlooking him which he seems to be doing, and I like tht Pierce's strategy is to push forward and put Koscheck on his heels. Kos isnt the great striker that he seems to think he is, and we've never seen him display any counter-striking skills as he's never been on the back foot (except when GSP jabbed him to death). Just think tht Koscheck does have more ways to win and if it goes distance Koscheck is likely to get the nod just because he'll be the one with top position more often than not if it goes to the ground. If Pierce does push forward then Koscheck probably will revert back to looking for take-downs as he'll be out of his comfort zone - he likes to push forward sticking out the left hand and throwing the big overhand right...not easy to do tht when u are backing up

Agree...

I'm leaning on pierce as of right now, especially with odds value in mind. However I think kos is a rightful fav and that on paper I'd pick him to win.

However, considering pierce hasn't really been taken down and kept there for a long period of time by the great wrestlers he's faced (although I know the much larger coy and munoz kind of had thier way in teh wrestling with him earlier in his career), I have a hard time seeing kos being successful with tds followed by dominant ground control. I actually give pierce the better jitz too. Kos has better offensive wrestling, but I think pierce has some of the best defensive wrestling in the game and I think kos might have a hard time dealing with that.

However, as you said and as Scottie said on Kamikaze Overdrive said, I think people are incorrect by saying kos has better stand up.

I think pierce hs much better technique and a more diverse striking arsenal. He's also got a great chin, somthing that might be questionable for kos. If pierce can keep it off the mat and not let kos smother him, I could see him winning a dirty boxing match. I think it would be damn close and probably another split for pierce, but definitely possible, or at least its something I can envision.

Don't think it will happen, but I have a small gut feeling pierce could tko and stop kos - drop him via overhand or close quarters hook and pound him out.

I put 75 on him at -195, might double that as I research more. Either way a close fight and kos is rightfully faved, but I think pierce is a VERY live dog.

GL this weekend bruddah!

**Vaughany** · 02-03-12, 11:10 AM

Adding:

10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units.