Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**gabe** · 01-29-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

I'm sure Gabe had the same confidence when Nog fought Luiz Cane, just a hunch.

Nope. Speaking of Cane, I made A LOT taking Stanislav Nedkov against him.

You comparing Cane to The Gust? LOL

**illmatick** · 01-29-12, 06:46 PM

Yeah, that was an awful bet. You're lucky Cane was hit right behind the year.

**illmatick** · 01-29-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by gabe

He might not be as good a boxer, but yeah, I would say the combination of his athleticism, speed, movement, and kickboxing make him the better fighter on the feet.

You're way too fixated on his offense. He's there to be hit all day.

**gabe** · 01-29-12, 06:54 PM

It's never an awful bet when you're betting on the power of a fighters hands vs the weakness of his opponents chin, and in that case, I knew Nedkov's power would be too much for Cane. I saw him putting him away within 2 rounds, all he had to do was connect a few times. I saw getting Nedkov as a big underdog as a gift. The fact that you see it as a bad bet is just silly to hear coming from a guy who caps fights. Then again, most cappers here thought Beltran was gonna win when it seemed like it was gonna be an easy win for Lavar and was a gift getting him as a nice dog.

**illmatick** · 01-29-12, 06:57 PM

Not sure about that, everyone I know here was saying that Lavar had a decent shot in the first round.I would have played the round 1 prop myself if it was offered.

**illmatick** · 01-29-12, 07:19 PM

And I suggest you rewatch that fight. Cane was easily taking chin shots from Nedkov early in the round. The tko had a lot more to do with the placement of the punch(temple) more than Cane's actual lack of punch resistance. 90% of fighters are gonna get wobbled when they get hit in that spot.

**gabe** · 01-29-12, 08:22 PM

There was no one punch that put Cane away. He was still in it after a few hard hits, but Nedkov rained it on him. Those fists could connect with that head a certain number of times before the head goes down. Only way Cane would win is if he used really good head movement with lots of kicks and jabs or took the fight to the ground.

Lavar had a shot in the 1st round? lol he would have won in any round. he would have taken a decision of beltran could continue being a punching bag for another 2 rounds. he was a great play straight up. best value play on the entire card, as i stated in my thread.

**illmatick** · 01-29-12, 08:29 PM

"Those fists could connect with that head a certain number of times before the head goes down. Only way Cane would win is if he used really good head movement with lots of kicks and jabs or took the fight to the ground."

derp.

I'll give you credit for your Lavar pick but I still would have liked my chances had that fight made it to round 3.

**gabe** · 01-30-12, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

"Those fists could connect with that head a certain number of times before the head goes down. Only way Cane would win is if he used really good head movement with lots of kicks and jabs or took the fight to the ground."

derp. I'll give you credit for your Lavar pick but I still would have liked my chances had that fight made it to round 3.

In round 3, Beltran would be down 2 rounds and he would be beaten and more worn out than Lavar. There is no way he would be able to put Lavar away in the 3rd, considering the punishment he was taking.

I had never seen Lavar videos before this fight came up. While researching the fight, it became clear to me that Beltran hadn't been hit by anyone who hits as hard as Lavar. Dude throws serious bombs and knees. That's why I said I would not be surprised at all if Beltran gets KO'd for the first time in his career.

**illmatick** · 01-30-12, 12:18 AM

Guess we'll never know.

Like i said,I give you credit for the play but don't act like everyone here didn't say that Lavar had a decent shot in the first round.

**gabe** · 01-30-12, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Guess we'll never know. Like i said,I give you credit for the play but don't act like everyone here didn't say that Lavar had a decent shot in the first round.

Everyone? I remember TWO people saying that IF he wins, his ONLY chance would be in the first round. That is way, waaay off. It was CLEAR that Beltran would have no chance in that fight, no matter what round it went to. He looked so weak against Lavar, Rogan even suggested he drop to 205. If Beltran's durability was good enough to withstand this type of punishment which he had never received before, then he just would have lost a 3 round decision. I knew it was either that or Lavar KO.

Anyway, I love you, Illie. Where are you from?

**illmatick** · 01-30-12, 01:09 AM

You could very well be right. For me though, Beltran had shown in the past that he fights through fatigue a lot better than Lavar. When Lavar gasses, he gasses hard, and tends to accept defeat fairly quick. His fight with Lolohea Mahe was the only time he showed some life after gassing, but that was more to do with the fact that Mahe was gassed just as bad if not worse.

I'm in Austin. I'll treat to you an icecream cone if you're ever in town.

**gabe** · 01-30-12, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

You could very well be right. For me though, Beltran had shown in the past that he fights through fatigue a lot better than Lavar. When Lavar gasses, he gasses hard, and tends to accept defeat fairly quick. His fight with Lolohea Mahe was the only time he showed some life after gassing, but that was more to do with the fact that Mahe was gassed just as bad if not worse. I'm in Austin. I'll treat to you an icecream cone if you're ever in town.

The way this fight was looking, Beltran looked like he would be gassed out by round 2. Never seen him get worn out like that. Videos of Lavar I watched show him looking good throughout two rounds. I don't think I watched any fights that went to the third. If this fight did go to the third, it just looked clear to me from everything we saw in the first round that Beltran would barely be able to stand one that third round started. And Lavar wouldn't gas so quickly when he's cruising with his strikes. I think he'd be able to take it slow and pick Beltran apart on the feet with jabs and kicks for 5 rounds without being too tired. Don't think Beltran would have been able to put on any kind of pressure.

I plan to do some shows in Austin later this year when I'm ready to hit the road.

Or maybe I'll just get a part-time job cleaning bat-shit. Whichever works out first.

**Vaughany** · 01-30-12, 04:50 AM

Originally posted by gabe

The way this fight was looking, Beltran looked like he would be gassed out by round 2. Never seen him get worn out like that. Videos of Lavar I watched show him looking good throughout two rounds. I don't think I watched any fights that went to the third. If this fight did go to the third, it just looked clear to me from everything we saw in the first round that Beltran would barely be able to stand one that third round started. And Lavar wouldn't gas so quickly when he's cruising with his strikes. I think he'd be able to take it slow and pick Beltran apart on the feet with jabs and kicks for 5 rounds without being too tired. Don't think Beltran would have been able to put on any kind of pressure.

I plan to do some shows in Austin later this year when I'm ready to hit the road.

Or maybe I'll just get a part-time job cleaning bat-shit. Whichever works out first.

haha Could be worse

**Vaughany** · 01-30-12, 05:14 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC on FOX 2 Review:

Total stake: 188.193 units

Total return: 224.415 units

Total profit: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)

Plus have the following pending parlays going strong coming off of UFC on FOX 2:

Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;

Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;

Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.

Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;

Record review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26:+0.45 units
UFC 118:+6.11 units
MFC Retribution:-1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22:+5.55 units
UFC 119:+1.5 units
WEC 51:+1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38:+11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2:+2.417 units
UFC 120:-0.589 units
UFC 121:+9.011 units
WEC 52:-1.274 units
UFC 122:+17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12:+0.865 units
UFC 123:+1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale:+9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review:+1.1 units
UFC 124:+5.135 units
WEC 53:+0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite:+1.354 units
UFC 125:+3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2:+3.961 units
UFC 126:+24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva:+0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy:+8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127:+10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3:+11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128:+22.131 units
Bellator 38:+4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24:+44.283 units
Bellator 40:+2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley:-5.527 units
Bellator 41:-0.7 units
UFC 129:+77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale:-16.766 units
UFC 131:+17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4:+25.288 units
UFC 132:+1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43:+1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor:+3.274 units
UFC 133:-12.302 units
UFC Versus 5:-5.073 units
UFC 134:-10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou:+20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19:-1.863 units
UFC 135:+53.938 units
UFC Versus 6:+4.021 units
UFC 136:-33.134 units
Bellator 55:-5.731 units
UFC 137:+4.337 units (+10.151 units inc’ arb)
UFC 138:+57.692 units
UFC on FOX:+5.087 units (+121.575 units inc' arbs)
UFC 139: +15.24 units (+28.647 units inc' arbs)
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units (+78.399 units inc' arbs)
Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine: +0.664 units
UFC 142: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FX 1: +19.764 units (+24.264 units inc' arb)
UFC on FOX 2: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)

Total profit (excluding arbs): +591.691 units

**ddream1** · 01-30-12, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

not only would bisping have beaten maia, but i think munoz would have beaten sonnen. everyone who was backing sonnen against munoz probably lucked out.

im a little bitter since i had plays on bisping against maia, and munoz against sonnen.

that sucks, from what we had seen looks like u would've won.

**PunisherIND** · 01-30-12, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by ddream1

that sucks, from what we had seen looks like u would've won.

you know, i shouldn't be too upset bc i actually did well for the event (+14u). but i only hit on one dog - lavar johnson. i had quite a bit on munoz above +200, so i think i could have done better, assuming munoz beat sonnen, of course. i also had a lot on bisping vs maia SU and in parlays with rashad. could have had a huge night if those bets weren't cancelled and/or converted into singles.

anyway, let me stop complaining about a winning night. lol.

**Vaughany** · 01-30-12, 11:08 AM

UFC 143 play:

6.378 units on Diaz/Condit to Go the Distance at +200 to win 12.756 units.

Anticipate having the option to arb out of this.

**PunisherIND** · 01-30-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC 143 play:

6.378 units on Diaz/Condit to Go the Distance at +200 to win 12.756 units.

Anticipate having the option to arb out of this.

nice play V. already down to +160, -210.

**Vaughany** · 01-30-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

nice play V. already down to +160, -210.

Yeah and it came out at +137.5 to go distance, -187.5 to not go distance on Ladbrokes. So rest of Euro books should have something similar and wont be surprised if it ends up at +130 or something on Sportbet

**Vaughany** · 01-30-12, 11:28 AM

Chael Sonnen ripped off "Superstar" Billy Grahams speech... http://www.cagepotato.com/chael-sonn...-billy-graham/

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-30-12, 12:33 PM

Riddle vs Hector Martinez
I guess the UFC didnt want someone cutting too much weight in 6 days notice

**gabe** · 01-30-12, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Riddle vs Hector Martinez I guess the UFC didnt want someone cutting too much weight in 6 days notice

Henry* Martinez

**sideloaded** · 01-30-12, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Chael Sonnen ripped off "Superstar" Billy Grahams speech... http://www.cagepotato.com/chael-sonn...-billy-graham/

He does that a lot. But I would say it's a homage more than a rip off.

**Jordan23** · 01-30-12, 11:39 PM

You surprised to see Koscheck's odds going up? I'd expect that would be going down!

**gabe** · 01-31-12, 12:17 AM

yup!

**Jordan23** · 01-31-12, 12:32 AM

Gabe, I assume since you love Koscheck so much you'd be pounding the hell out of his line right now since this is probably the best his line is going to get.

**gabe** · 01-31-12, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Jordan23

Gabe, I assume since you love Koscheck so much you'd be pounding the hell out of his line right now since this is probably the best his line is going to get.

not yet- waiting to see how it moves. my book is usually hours behind vegas/online books, so if i see the line changes in the direction i don't like, i'll pound pound pound before my book changes it

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-31-12, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Chael Sonnen ripped off "Superstar" Billy Grahams speech... http://www.cagepotato.com/chael-sonn...-billy-graham/

Billy Graham sounds like Mitch Hedberg...

**BDillon1** · 01-31-12, 01:04 PM

Vaughany,

I've been following your threads and posts as a non-member and have been getting advice on bets based on your picks. I just registered today and wanted to thank you for the free advice and help you give to people on this board. I look forward to seeing your UFC 143 picks.

-Brent

**gabe** · 01-31-12, 01:17 PM

Followed V on Neer- I knew I should have w/ Rashad too but didn't wanna go against Phillip!!!

**BDillon1** · 01-31-12, 01:25 PM

Gabe, that's exactly what I did, turns out betting on the guy because hes like-able doesn't cut it! I'll learn next time...

Who do yall have in Nelson Vs. Werdum? I like Nelson in this and ever since TUF, I've learned never to count him out. Werdum hasn't impressed me in a while, and with him telling Nelson to keep his hands up... Let's face it... he's not going to knock out Roy. The guy is like stone. I'm thinking of placing him in a few parlays or arbs but I want to hold off hoping his line will drop. Who ya got?

**gabe** · 01-31-12, 01:29 PM

Check my thread.

**Vaughany** · 01-31-12, 02:15 PM

Wonderboy Thompson blog... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWTnFd2n8Ts

**Vaughany** · 01-31-12, 03:20 PM

Dana WHite 143 blog...FIGHT WEEK BLOG WEEK!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=gCBjVqu8LTI

Beltran crying his eyes out...devastated