Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Beelzebubzy]

V
who are you looking at for your big play for 142? what about your mega play? and your big, uber play but not a lock?

i like Stout at a decent line. He is 4-1 in his last five with the questionable loss to Stephens

[Vaughany]

V
who are you looking at for your big play for 142? what about your mega play? and your big, uber play but not a lock?

i like Stout at a decent line. He is 4-1 in his last five with the questionable loss to Stephens

haha Not had a chance to think about it yet pal what with 141!

[Vaughany]

Hardonk and Rogan talk about Overeem... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=V-MZYXs28W0

[Vaughany]

Adding:


3.221 units on Overeem/Lesnar FOTN at +550 to win 17.716 units;


1.611 units on Nam Phan/Hettes FOTN at +700 to win 11.274 units.


Overeem/Lesnar is unlikely to be FOTN as fight will probably end early and hopefully Cerrone/Diaz will last longer and be more exciting, but can't count out Dana to give the main event FOTN as he is partial to doing!

[BIGDAY]

GL tonight.

[rochestertitans]

anyone with a stream

[Vaughany]

Facebook for pre-lims

[JAKEPEAVY21]

wow, Volkmann almost got backdoored there

[Vaughany]

Volkmann gets the win...start I needed

[Vaughany]

wow, Volkmann almost got backdoored there

Heart in mouth for a moment there!

Almost wish Efrain had of choked him out...wouldn't have had to listen to tht awkward post-fight interview then!

[Vaughany]

Stungun/Pierson Over 1.5 hits...knew I should of gone bigger on that

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Heart in mouth for a moment there!

Almost wish Efrain had of choked him out...wouldn't have had to listen to tht awkward post-fight interview then!

lol ya that interview was brutal

[Vaughany]

Adding:


3.221 units on Nam Phan/Hettes to Start Round 2 (-357), Fitch/Hendricks to Start Round 2 (-660), & Nick Diaz (-140) to win 4.918 units.

[NunyaBidness]

Stungun/Pierson Over 1.5 hits...knew I should of gone bigger on that

Yeah, that line seemed wacky. Should've been over 2.5 at that price.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

wow Hettes is dominating

[OptionsAddict]

http://www.firstrowsports.tv/sport/boxing-wwe-ufc.html

[OptionsAddict]

anyone with a stream

That last post was for you...

[Vaughany]

Serves me right for not hedging Phan by TKO/KO or Decision with Hettes straight-up instead of submission of the Night. Thought I was gonna get it with that armbar attempt

[Vaughany]

Adding:


1.611 units on Fitch/Hendricks to Start Round 2 (-550), Rumble Johnson (+115), & Nick Diaz (-140) to win 5.405 units.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Cerrone/Diaz FOTN lookin goood!

[NunyaBidness]

Cerrone/Diaz FOTN lookin goood!

You think it's going to get paid? I've already been refunded at one book.

[Vaughany]

You think it's going to get paid? I've already been refunded at one book.

Which book?

I did it on Skybet, from what I can see they don't have any specific rules to do with these props and it's still pending. I'll kick up a storm if it isnt graded as win!

[NunyaBidness]

Which book?

I did it on Skybet, from what I can see they don't have any specific rules to do with these props and it's still pending. I'll kick up a storm if it isnt graded as win!

A tiny one that just copies lines. They refunded me about halfway through the evening. Didn't bother refunding my riddle bet yet, though. . .

[Vaughany]

Skybet are one of the worse Eurobooks for tryin to get out of paying up as well so wouldnt be surprised if they did suddenly void it!

[stefan084]

I'm not understanding, why would it be voided?

[Vaughany]

I'm not understanding, why would it be voided?

Sportbet have a "Every fight must have action" rule against all their FOTN, SOTN and KOTN props, probably because they also offer "Not to win FOTN, SOTN or KOTN" so they voided all bets. Skybet don't have this though and all Euro books are same so should pay up (as Skybet have).

[FindTheLock]

I lost 130 bucks on 141!!! The beer I was drinking made me feel better about it though!

[jeedee]

How did 141 go for you Vaughany?

141 absolutely killed me...

[Mr Handicapable]

Vaughany....appreciate all your hard work on here for one! What are your early thoughts on Overeem/JDS?

[Vaughany]

How did 141 go for you Vaughany?

141 absolutely killed me...

Damn, sorry to hear tht bro. Mine was pretty good, about 70 units profit thanks to first round Overeem TKO and Cerrone/Diaz FOTN which were my two big plays.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany....appreciate all your hard work on here for one! What are your early thoughts on Overeem/JDS?

Cheers bro! I'll speak more about it later but I'd of been all over Overeem at +190 or whatever it was when it came out.

[Vaughany]

UFC 141 Review:

Summary of UFC 141 plays:


2.395 units on Overeem/Lesnar to End by TKO/KO at -187.5 to win 1.277 units;

1.547 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Be Under 1.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.289 units;

0.466 units on Overeem to Win in Round 1 at +275 to win 1.282 units.

Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

12.368 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or DQ at +175 to win 21.644 units;

2.5 units on Overeem Submission of the Night at +1000 to win 25 units; (VOIDED BY SPORTBET)


6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +175 to win 11.263 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +161 to win 10.362 units;


Parlay: 0.644 units on Melendez (-310), Fitch (-220), Overeem Inside the Distance (-123), & Aldo (-245) to win 2.517 units;


Parlay: 6.394 units on Ebersole/Patrick to Start Round 2 (-470), Not Ortiz by Submission (-4100), Jones/Machida to Start Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 5.804 units;


Parlay (double): 6.382 units on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance (-313), & Overeem/Lesnar Won't Start Round 3 (-175) to win 6.851 units;


Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;


4 units on Cerrone by TKO or Decision at +125 to win 5 units;

1.002 units on Cerrone/Diaz FOTN at +240 to win 2.405 units;

19 units on Cerrone/Diaz FOTN at +225 to win 42.75 units;


5 units on Gustafsson by TKO/KO at +150 to win 7.5 units;

2.35 units on Not Njokuani by Submission (-4025), Not Gustafsson by TKO/KO (-119), Not Hendricks (-1675), & Evans (-155) to win 5.377 units.


6 units on Nam Phan by TKO or Decision at -120 to win 5 units;

0.3 units on Hettes Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 6 units;


11.599 units on Ross Pearson at -180 to win 6.444 units;

1.27 units on Pearson by Decision at +122 to win 1.549 units;

0.728 units on Pearson/Assuncao to Not Go the Distance at +175 to win 1.274 units;


Parlay: 3.22 units on Stungun/Pierson Over 1.5 Rounds (-180), Not Njokuani by Submission (-4025), & Not Hendricks by Submission (-1675) to win 2.22 units;


1 unit on Castillo by Decision at +237 to win 2.37 units;

1.04 units on Castillo/Njokuani to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.275 units;

0.229 units on Castillo by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;


0.062 units on Fitch SOTN at +3000 to win 1.86 units;


0.062 units on Gustafsson SOTN at +2500 to win 1.55 units;


0.1 units on Nunes/Gamburyan to End in Round 1 at +350 to win 0.3 units.




Going big on Cerrone/Diaz Fight of the Night, if that doesn't hit then I'm gonna be praying for an Overeem 1st round finish! Have got quite a lot of arbs on as back-up as well. Including Riddle at +115 (opener on Boylesports) arbed with Ramos at +124 which will net me 5.697 units if Riddle wins, or 0.657 units if Ramos wins. As an extreme back-up I have Overeem/Lesnar to go the distance at +1000 and not distance at -700 = 14.987 units if it does go distance or overall stake back if it doesn't. Then also will make 5.156 units if the fight goes the distance (+110), or 0.678 units if it doesn't go the distance (+120). Plus another 1.8 units if Cerrone wins by decision at +200 arbed with Not Cerrone by Decision at -150 (0.5 units if he doesn't win by decision).

Adding:


3.221 units on Overeem/Lesnar FOTN at +550 to win 17.716 units; (VOIDED BY SPORTBET)


1.611 units on Nam Phan/Hettes FOTN at +700 to win 11.274 units. (VOIDED BY SPORTBET)


Overeem/Lesnar is unlikely to be FOTN as fight will probably end early and hopefully Cerrone/Diaz will last longer and be more exciting, but can't count out Dana to give the main event FOTN as he is partial to doing!

Adding:


3.221 units on Nam Phan/Hettes to Start Round 2 (-357), Fitch/Hendricks to Start Round 2 (-660), & Nick Diaz (-140) to win 4.918 units.

Adding:


1.611 units on Fitch/Hendricks to Start Round 2 (-550), Rumble Johnson (+115), & Nick Diaz (-140) to win 5.405 units.

Awesome night thanks to Pearson's win, Cerrone/Diaz going distance and being FOTN, and Overeem 1st Round TKO was perfect result for me and great way to end the year.

Total risk: 104.862 units

Return: 175.028 units

Total profit: +70.166 units (+78.399 units including arbs)


Also have following two parlays pending going in to UFC 142:

Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;

Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units.

So basically have 12.844 units on Aldo to win 21.16 units.

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134: -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units
UFC 138: +57.692 unit
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units
UFC 139: +15.24 units
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units

Total profit: +515.415 units

[Vaughany]

UFC 142 Play:


2.4 units on Massenzio at +425 to win 10.2 units.


Although Palhares should win by sub or a decision I think Massenzio is worth a small play at +425. I will be playing Palhares Submission of the Night though as well.