Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

lol how worried were you when Maia was tagging Munoz that he might TKO him...I was like wtf?

ha yeah tht first round was a bit worrying...he did the stanky leg early on and thought shiiiiiiiiiiit! He's got good recovery though luckily!

[pellibr]

Hey Vaughany!

Thanks a lot for your picks last night, I didn`t get the opening lines but I made +7 Units with 20% ROI!! I`ve opened an account at PaddyPower only for your bets, you should receive some bonus of them I wish to give you all my SBR Points, (not much) but they say it`s forbidden I don`t know why...

I hope Kongo win next fight to you get all your bets done!!! Again, thanks a lot for sharing, have a nice day and good luck!!

[Vaughany]

Dude claiming he beat-up Koscheck...

[Hannibal]

Kongo is -180 now..
You think that will move? I guess if it moves... it will only get worse value for Kongo. But if it stays the same, pinnacle will have reduced juice for Kongo at around -170.
Is it worth the wait to hope for the small percentage difference? or too much risk that value will be lost on Kongo if i dont pull the trigger now.

**** i think i answered my own question.

[rafa martin]

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4:


10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;

Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

well done!!! PERO KE COMPLICATED I do not even see this kongo fights in paddy. the rest is even more difficult to get,,but you excell at this fights bro! but this bookies all you released either lower down odds or do not show the bet,, i admire your patient!!!,,i owe you some drinks at puerto banus if you come down to marbella.

[MMAbetMASTA]

UFC 131 Results:









Review:

Total stake: 50.271 units

Return: 67.959 units

Profit: +17.688 units (excluding risk-free arbs)


With the arbs that I don't include on my record (3 units profit from Elkins winning; and 3.868 units from Ken Flo winning by decision) I made total of 24.556 units.

Also have following parlay outstanding from this event going into UFC Versus 4:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Nice wins man! Great night it seems like for a lot of people on here You kill it with those prop bets!!! I'm gonna start following you on some of those!

I did quite well, too... although very lucky on a couple. Got really lucky on elkins obviously, and munoz/maia was MUCH more close than I thought... I'll eat my words and give my the credit maia deserves for his striking, very impressed. That fight really could have gone either way, so I'm lucky I got that big win. I nearly shit myself in the first round haha.

131 plays:

INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017789
Jun 11 05:50 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[15502] D ELKINS +220
(M OMIGAWA vrs D ELKINS)

50 / 110

110
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 05:08 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53987675
Jun 11 08:05 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2253] C WEIDMAN -340
(C WEIDMAN vrs J BONGFELDT)

340 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 04:14 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53998696
Jun 11 10:00 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2233] M MUNOZ -125
(M MUNOZ vrs D MAIA)

875 / 700

700
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 08:37 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017728
Jun 11 10:40 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2237] D NUNES +230
(D NUNES vrs K FLORIAN)

50 / 115

-50
LOSE
LOSE
06/11/2011 05:07 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54029025
Jun 11 11:15 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2222] J DOS SANTOS -175
(S CARWIN vrs J DOS SANTOS)

175 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 10:54 PM

[rafa martin]

what date is this upcoming event?

[bjpenn85]

ufc on versus 26th

[scofflaw]

Hey Vaughany, I've been following the thread for a few weeks. Your analysis is top notch
I did good on 131 and turned ~80% profit. The early Weidman catch paid off. I didn't know he was fighting again, but that guy has huge potential with his athletic background and training camp. Even at my bad book, I got him at -265 and hit it hard. Took that money and put even more on JDS, and some on Herman. Munoz and Herman won, so I put more on JDS. That was almost a gimme.

I only lost a tiny bet I placed on Edwards. I thought he was a live underdog.

[Marv001]

Dos Santos didn't finish carwin bcs whenever there is a title shot on the line, the fighters are always conservative.

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany!

Thanks a lot for your picks last night, I didn`t get the opening lines but I made +7 Units with 20% ROI!! I`ve opened an account at PaddyPower only for your bets, you should receive some bonus of them I wish to give you all my SBR Points, (not much) but they say it`s forbidden I don`t know why...

I hope Kongo win next fight to you get all your bets done!!! Again, thanks a lot for sharing, have a nice day and good luck!!

No worries bro, glad you're making profit. I didn't realise Paddy do a referral thing for new members?

Kongo is -180 now..
You think that will move? I guess if it moves... it will only get worse value for Kongo. But if it stays the same, pinnacle will have reduced juice for Kongo at around -170.
Is it worth the wait to hope for the small percentage difference? or too much risk that value will be lost on Kongo if i dont pull the trigger now.

**** i think i answered my own question.

I'd like to think that Kongo will end up at -200 to -225, but then many people think that Barry is an elite striker and that Kongo will stand with him so it may even improve to -150 or something. I capped it at -200 so was happy to take anything better than that which I have. I also think that there is about an equal chance that Kongo can win this by TKO or decision and even a reasonable chance of a sub so I wouldnt make a play on a prop unless one has ridiculous value.

well done!!! PERO KE COMPLICATED I do not even see this kongo fights in paddy. the rest is even more difficult to get,,but you excell at this fights bro! but this bookies all you released either lower down odds or do not show the bet,, i admire your patient!!!,,i owe you some drinks at puerto banus if you come down to marbella.

Yes paddy will probably release their Kongo line this week, I expect it will 8/15 or 4/7. As I said below I see value in him at -200 (1/2) or better. I may be heading to Marbella soon, me and my mates are currently in process of booking to go to either Marbella or LA/Las Vegas next wknd for 10 days. Be sure to let you know if Im going Marbella! If not I'll be tryin to get to my buddy's villa in September for a few days or a week.

Nice wins man! Great night it seems like for a lot of people on here You kill it with those prop bets!!! I'm gonna start following you on some of those!

I did quite well, too... although very lucky on a couple. Got really lucky on elkins obviously, and munoz/maia was MUCH more close than I thought... I'll eat my words and give my the credit maia deserves for his striking, very impressed. That fight really could have gone either way, so I'm lucky I got that big win. I nearly shit myself in the first round haha.

131 plays:

INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017789
Jun 11 05:50 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[15502] D ELKINS +220
(M OMIGAWA vrs D ELKINS)

50 / 110

110
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 05:08 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53987675
Jun 11 08:05 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2253] C WEIDMAN -340
(C WEIDMAN vrs J BONGFELDT)

340 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 04:14 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 53998696
Jun 11 10:00 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2233] M MUNOZ -125
(M MUNOZ vrs D MAIA)

875 / 700

700
WIN
WIN
06/10/2011 08:37 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54017728
Jun 11 10:40 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2237] D NUNES +230
(D NUNES vrs K FLORIAN)

50 / 115

-50
LOSE
LOSE
06/11/2011 05:07 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54029025
Jun 11 11:15 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2222] J DOS SANTOS -175
(S CARWIN vrs J DOS SANTOS)

175 / 100

100
WIN
WIN
06/11/2011 10:54 PM

Great job bro, yeah Munoz looked dodgy in first round! He has great recovery tho, regains his equilibrium quickly, was same in Grove fight. I got lucky with Elkins as well, the 30-27 was an absolute travesty!

Hey Vaughany, I've been following the thread for a few weeks. Your analysis is top notch
I did good on 131 and turned ~80% profit. The early Weidman catch paid off. I didn't know he was fighting again, but that guy has huge potential with his athletic background and training camp. Even at my bad book, I got him at -265 and hit it hard. Took that money and put even more on JDS, and some on Herman. Munoz and Herman won, so I put more on JDS. That was almost a gimme.

I only lost a tiny bet I placed on Edwards. I thought he was a live underdog.

Cheers and good stuff

[Vaughany]

Liking the Mayhem Miller odds at +185...plan to go big on that hedged with fight goes distance or Bisping by distance at + odds.

[Vaughany]

Adding UFC 132 plays:


6.1 units on Dong-Hyun Kim by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

Potentially looking to add more to this and hedge with Condit straight-up at Evens or better.


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Again, will be adding more and hedging with Faber at +120.

[Dave--M]

where have you found those prop bets ?

[Vaughany]

where have you found those prop bets ?

Sportbet (5dimes).

[Ladle]

Adding UFC 132 plays:


6.1 units on Dong-Hyun Kim by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

Potentially looking to add more to this and hedge with Condit straight-up at Evens or better.


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Again, will be adding more and hedging with Faber at +120.

Beautiful! Pounded both of these lines.

Potential bets of the year in my opinion.

[Vaughany]

Beautiful! Pounded both of these lines.

Potential bets of the year in my opinion.

Yeah both seem pretty solid to me. If I can't get similar lines for Cruz by dec and Stungun by dec on one of the Euro sites then I'll just let these plays ride as they are and not hedge as I'm confident at least one of them hits.

[Hannibal]

Hahah u guys already killed it
I got cruz dec at +160 and dhk dec at +146

[snake11eyes]

Dominick Cruz by decision at +170 to win 10.4 units.

Just tried to get this. Down to +130 already.

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Overeem vs Werdum play:


7.5 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 5 units.

Highly unlikely Overeem wins by submission, only chance of that is if Werdum taps from strikes which I doubt!

[Jordan23]

Please tell me you favor Cain over Junior Dos Santos

[Vaughany]

Please tell me you favor Cain over Junior Dos Santos

Cain by decision yeah

[rafa martin]

vaughany now you look like ali at the thriller in manila!!! best of luck,,,i got congo at 1.50 and pounded. thanks a lot.

[Jordan23]

Cain by decision yeah

Well wouldn't you pick Cain by stoppage? Or maybe hedge it? I think when it hits the 4th or 5th round JDS will be absolutely gassed to do Cain's pace and Cain will be able to finish him. I got Cain by stoppage in the championship rounds. Decision is very interesting though. I'd like to see the odds for Cain by decision.

[stefan084]

Liking the Mayhem Miller odds at +185...plan to go big on that hedged with fight goes distance or Bisping by distance at + odds.

hitting Miller now you say? ---I'm tailing

[sirchadwick1]

Well wouldn't you pick Cain by stoppage? Or maybe hedge it? I think when it hits the 4th or 5th round JDS will be absolutely gassed to do Cain's pace and Cain will be able to finish him. I got Cain by stoppage in the championship rounds. Decision is very interesting though. I'd like to see the odds for Cain by decision.

JDS has always had speed on his opponents... but against Carwin he had to train for strength (to overcome Carwin's weight advantage) and takedown defense. That leads me to believe that is why he may have looked a tad soft at the weigh-ins and why he looked a little tired in the 3rd. JDS is taller, naturally has a larger frame than Cain and the standup advantage. I'm willing to bet he works hard on his cardio for this one and his TDD can only improve. I was shocked at how well he kept on his feet against Carwin. Cain is obviously on another level... but he has some things going against him here, including the pressure of keeping his belt against a youngier, hungry opponent with an iron chin and the best hands in the division. I hate going against ya Vaughny, but I like JDS at + odds. Tough tough one to call though and if I were to side with Cain here I'd take him by decision.

[scofflaw]

Cain vs JDS is so difficult to predict that I probably won't touch it. Though until I hear more news my best guess is JDS by TKO/decision. Cain is coming off of major shoulder surgery and I think Dana said his recovery is taking longer than expected. So I think I'd be a reasonable assumption that JDS will probably have a slight advantage in conditioning/strength, and Cain has some catching up to do with his.

I think JDS's defensive wrestling/bjj is good enough to negate some of Cain's wrestling. He'll be taken down, but I doubt Cain can hold him there or in the clinch the whole fight. JDS is the more technical, powerful boxer but his cardio probably isn't as good as Cain's, leaving him especially vulnerable to TD-->GNP in rounds 3,4,5. JDS also doesn't throw enough kicks, which will be huge in a championship fight and I doubt he will either, to avoid Cain's single leg.

Cain's shoulder injury and downtime is really the only reason I currently give the nod to JDS. Both fighters are close enough in raw talent that I think the X-factors are Cain's rehab, the strategy both fighters bring, and how well they execute (duh)

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Overeem vs Werdum play:


7.5 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 5 units.

Highly unlikely Overeem wins by submission, only chance of that is if Werdum taps from strikes which I doubt!

Adding a further 15 units to this play so now have:

22.5 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 15 units.

Will hold off till Fri or Sat and then probly hedge with Werdum straight up at +300 or hopefully better.

[urge2kill]

Awesome line.

[Hannibal]

Those are all factors to consider. For me, I'm afraid of the size difference. Cain has handled big guys before, but he was signifcantly more skilled than them. Did you see the post fight when cain came in the ring? Jds towered over him... And cain was wearing shoes too!!!

[Ladle]

Adding a further 15 units to this play so now have:

22.5 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 15 units.

Will hold off till Fri or Sat and then probly hedge with Werdum straight up at +300 or hopefully better.

Which book gave you this dude? Very nice line.

[Vaughany]

Which book gave you this dude? Very nice line.

Skybet

[Vaughany]

Kongo's fights with Cro-Cop and Velasquez are available on this site if anybody wants to view...

http://video.sibnet.ru/search.php?inname=1&intext=1&inkeyw=1&inalbom=1&text=kongo&x=0&y=0

[Vaughany]

4 out of 6 folds parlay:

0.855 units (0.057 units per line) on Barnet/Rogers to not go the distance, Sturm by decision, Bader by decision, Wiman by decision, Stungun/Condit goes the distance, & Davis/Evans goes the distance to win 13.815 units.

[Hannibal]

I've only ever played straight parlays. How does this one work? You only have to hit 4 out of 6? How is the pay calculated? What if you hit 5? Or 6? Same payout?