Vaughany's MMA Picks...

RaiderNation MMA · 06-11-11, 05:04 PM

i cant wait!!!!!

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 05:29 PM

Off too good start thanks to dodgy decision! 30-27 WTFFFF!

Marv001 · 06-11-11, 07:13 PM

Vaughany, great call on weidman. I was really impressed with your picks last card. Congrats.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by Marv001

Vaughany, great call on weidman. I was really impressed with your picks last card. Congrats.

Cheers dude, was all about catching the opening line (-225) with tht one.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 07:25 PM

Going well so far, James Head only one to let me down. Main aim of this card was to make up what I lost last week on TUF 13 Finale, don't wanna risk ruining the solid start to the night so arbing my 12 unit play on Herman/Einemo not going distance at -120 with 4.7 units on fight going distance at +260. Will mean 5.3 units profit if either fighter finishes or 0.22 units if it goes the distance.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 07:30 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 0.615 units on Stout/Edwards starts Rnd 3, Cerrone/Vagner starts Rnd 2, & Florian/Nunes starts Rnd 2 to win 0.725 units.

jrbacon · 06-11-11, 07:34 PM

Vaughany - did you end up going in on the over 1.5? (dos santos/carwin), unfortunately Bodog doesn't offer half rounds

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by jrbacon

Vaughany - did you end up going in on the over 1.5? (dos santos/carwin), unfortunately Bodog doesn't offer half rounds

No jus got it in one of my low risk parlays on sportbet

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 07:41 PM

Wow Stout jus ruined tht parlay...brutal KO, might even trump JDS if he KO's Carwin

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 08:14 PM

Another last minute parlay before Cerrone/Vagner Rocha starts:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Cerrone notoriously late starter, hopefully keeps that trend going in this one.

Brian891 · 06-11-11, 08:38 PM

wow. cerrrone was DOMINANT. vaughany u think maia goes the distance?

k22t · 06-11-11, 08:46 PM

Vaughany, you think Maia takes the next one?

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Brian891

wow. cerrrone was DOMINANT. vaughany u think maia goes the distance?

I'd only take it to go distance at + money, believe it's still -110 at moment. This fight has too many variables, I think there is just as much chance of Munoz KO/Maia submission as there is of fight going distance.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by k22t

Vaughany, you think Maia takes the next one?

I'd lean Munoz, but Maia is at +135 now... good value seeing as this is pretty much a pick-em.

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 06-11-11, 08:58 PM

maia /munoz tough call

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by WIZARDOFBEANTOWN

maia /munoz tough call

Very, I'm jus hopin for a Maia sub or Munoz KO, probly go decision tho

STAY STRONG · 06-11-11, 08:59 PM

Rolling with Munoz here. GO TIME.

k22t · 06-11-11, 09:01 PM

I'm on Maia with profits from Herman.. Hopefully he submissions him to a victory, gonna be brutal though

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 06-11-11, 10:05 PM

kenny by dec hell ya

pellibr · 06-11-11, 10:12 PM

Nice One!! Go Cigano by KO!!

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by WIZARDOFBEANTOWN

kenny by dec hell ya

Yeahhhh buddy...helped my profits a lot!

jin2daj · 06-11-11, 10:17 PM

kenny looked pretty good in his debut. but i miss the guy "who finishes fights at 155"

pellibr · 06-11-11, 10:46 PM

When do we know the "Fight of the Night"?

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by pellibr

When do we know the "Fight of the Night"?

Will be announced at press conference in about 20-30 minutes. Will be Herman/Einemo tho I guess, pissed because I was gonna put a small amount on it at +2000 but couldn't deposit any more cash

Also kept thinking about Weidman Submission of the Night but thought one out of Maia, Florian or Einemo would get a sub and thus get the award. Stout will get KO of the Night of course.

rocky mattioli · 06-11-11, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by jin2daj

kenny looked pretty good in his debut. but i miss the guy "who finishes fights at 155"

speaking of finishing,how in the hell did dos santos not finuish carwin?.....he was gone...if dos santos had an ounce of killer instinct,that fight would never had gone the distance.....very similar to his fight with big country.....

yes,he dominated...but when you have a slower guy that beaten down,you take him out.....

just my opinion,but that was disappointing...he fought a very safe rounds 2 and 3...

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

speaking of finishing,how in the hell did dos santos not finuish carwin?.....he was gone...if dos santos had an ounce of killer instinct,that fight would never had gone the distance.....very similar to his fight with big country.....

yes,he dominated...but when you have a slower guy that beaten down,you take him out.....

just my opinion,but that was disappointing...he fought a very safe rounds 2 and 3...

Yeah very safe indeed, I'm sure there a lot out there who just had plays on Dos Santos by TKO/KO - bet they're are fuming!! When he was pounding Carwin out it was as if he started to feel bad for it and just stopped because the ref didnt stop it!

Chairib · 06-11-11, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah very safe indeed, I'm sure there a lot out there who just had plays on Dos Santos by TKO/KO - bet they're are fuming!! When he was pounding Carwin out it was as if he started to feel bad for it and just stopped because the ref didnt stop it!

It's a three round fight, you want to win but the real goal is to get into the championship fight with Cain. Regardless, you have to be careful fighting Carwin because he has that one punch ko power. He'll put you on queer street in a blink of an eye, just like his fight with Gonzaga.

Vaughany · 06-12-11, 07:36 AM

UFC 131 Results:

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC 131 Plays:

Single straight-up plays:

10 units on Weidman at -225 to win 4.444 units;

2 units on Head at +115 to win 2.3 units;

1.1 units on Beltran at +177.5 to win 1.955 units - (Bought back on the 6.095 units that I had on Beltran at +155 with 7.5 units on Rosa at -150 so now effectively have 1.1 units on Beltran to win 1.955 units (approximately +177.5 odds);

Props and hedges:

12 units on Herman/Einemo Not going the distance at -120 to win 10 units;

5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

hedged with:

0.5 units on Florian Submission of the Night at +1500 to win 7.5 units;

0.8 units on Dos Santos by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 1.3 units;

0.5 units on Carwin by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.25 units;

0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units;

0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units;

1.35 units on Weidman by decision at +193 to win 2.596 units;

hedged with:

1.619 units on Weidman/Bongfeldt Not going the distance at -120 to win 1.349 units;

0.4 units on Stoute/Edwards FOTN at +800 to win 3.2 units;

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Vagner Rocha FOTN at +1200 to win 1.2 units;

0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.

Pending parlays:

2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

0.8 units on Dos Santos KO of the Night at +400 to win 3.2 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Dos Santos Inside the distance at -119 to win 0.84 units.

0.1 units on Poirier/Young FOTN at +1400 to win 1.4 units.

Also have a couple of no-risk arbs that I won't include on my record. Need Florian to win by decision to make 3.9 units (0.1 units profit if any other outcome); Elkins to win to make 3 units (overall stake back if Omigawa wins).

BOL all

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay: 0.615 units on Stout/Edwards starts Rnd 3, Cerrone/Vagner starts Rnd 2, & Florian/Nunes starts Rnd 2 to win 0.725 units.

Originally posted by Vaughany

Another last minute parlay before Cerrone/Vagner Rocha starts:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

Cerrone notoriously late starter, hopefully keeps that trend going in this one.

Review:

Total stake: 50.271 units

Return: 67.959 units

Profit: +17.688 units (excluding risk-free arbs)

With the arbs that I don't include on my record (3 units profit from Elkins winning; and 3.868 units from Ken Flo winning by decision) I made total of 24.556 units.

Also have following parlay outstanding from this event going into UFC Versus 4:

0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

ddream1 · 06-12-11, 08:35 AM

lol, i thought i had a decent night. V your one of a kind sir and an absolute killer!! keep up the great work sir. well done

Wrecked · 06-12-11, 12:04 PM

Is 1 unit the equivalent of 100$?

Vaughany · 06-12-11, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

Is 1 unit the equivalent of 100$?

No, £10

Wrecked · 06-12-11, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

No, £10

Ahhh I see.
Nice wins!

Go4theJugular · 06-12-11, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

Ahhh I see. Nice wins!

Why are you here? Go make another fake $1200 bet...

Vaughany · 06-12-11, 12:24 PM

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4:

10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;

Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units.

A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

Go4theJugular · 06-12-11, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Current plays going in to UFC on Versus 4: 10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units; 10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units; 11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units; Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units; Parlay: 0.615 units on Cerrone/Vagner Starts Rnd 2, Not Maia by TKO/KO, Not Herman by Submission, & Kongo to win 0.781 units. A lot riding on Kongo! Will also be looking to add Marquardt/Story to decision, Tyson Griffin (but expect him to be over valued), and if available Howard/Brown FOTN but doubt any books will offer these props for Versus.

lol how worried were you when Maia was tagging Munoz that he might TKO him...I was like wtf?