Vaughany's MMA Picks...

Vaughany · 06-08-11, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Wasnt everybody just ripping on Ghost Kid for saying Cerrone ko?

Who's "Ghostkid"? Where's that?

thesox0311 · 06-08-11, 05:32 PM

You really like Head in that fight? Im still undecided but i think Ring might come out on fire becuase of all the criticism from the Fukuda fight.

Vaughany · 06-08-11, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by thesox0311

You really like Head in that fight? Im still undecided but i think Ring might come out on fire becuase of all the criticism from the Fukuda fight.

Only if he's at least better than Evens. Ring isn't really the type to come out guns blazing, he is quite composed and technical. Head wll have more power tho and could put Ring in bad spots if he presses the action aggressively. Ring isn't bad but he was obviously dominated by Fukuda, and got lucky to go through without a 3rd round against McGee.

thesox0311 · 06-08-11, 06:24 PM

I agree... i honestly just havent see Head fight. That Fukuda decision was the most suprising thing ive ever seen.

Chairib · 06-09-11, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by SBRtv Judie

Thanks for the info here. Ladle once again sorry about the misspelling and mispronunciation.

Judie what would it take to get a vid of you saying, "They're always after me lucky charms."

Vaughany · 06-09-11, 06:15 AM

Adding:

6 units on Herman/Einemo Not going the distance at -120 to win 5 units;

0.4 units on Stoute/Edwards FOTN at +800 to win 3.2 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Vagner Rocha FOTN at +1200 to win 1.2 units.

Vaughany · 06-09-11, 03:57 PM

Young Nam Phan destroys average Joe!...

Vaughany · 06-09-11, 03:58 PM

bogbat · 06-09-11, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Young Nam Phan destroys average Joe!...

His gym isn't too far from where I live right now. I considered checking it out but I was told that Nam Phan routinely goes over the top on armatures and newcomers.

Educ8d Degener8 · 06-09-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

Seriously, that could be a bad line.

It's not an "off" or "bad" line. It's +1000 'cos in 17 fights, Cerrone has 0 wins by KO/TKO...

Buuuuuuuuut, given this matchup against a sub specialist, I like the play at +1000. I concur completely with V's assessment of this fight unfolding stylistically... Course Cerrone is a hothead and might stray from the gameplan, but anticipate him to work his MT base here for the win via dec, with chance of KO/TKO.

ghost kid · 06-09-11, 05:40 PM

Yeah, in the Dos Santos thread some guy jumped on me quickly about Cerrone never having scored a KO/TKO win

But I certainly don't discount Cowboy getting one here - he was damn close against Kelly
the prop was 30:1 that night

Cerrone uses his striking to setup his subs, for the most part
but he certainly has the ability to score damage on the feet

With Rocha, we are talking about a guy who's only dangerous on the ground
And a guy who was beaten up soundly on the feet by Bret Bergmark

Cerrrone by KO/TKO is possible, IMO
obviously a decision is more likely, but stoppage is not out of the question

urge2kill · 06-09-11, 08:01 PM

Cerrone by TKO is now only +315 at 5Dimes. Makes +1000 look kinda far off.

corcoran65 · 06-09-11, 08:09 PM

i might be way off with this but i think there is value in maia by tko. if he gets top his gnp with good positioning could stop munoz

Camdemonium · 06-09-11, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by corcoran65

i might be way off with this but i think there is value in maia by tko. if he gets top his gnp with good positioning could stop munoz

I think you are way off with this.

Chairib · 06-09-11, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

His gym isn't too far from where I live right now. I considered checking it out but I was told that Nam Phan routinely goes over the top on armatures and newcomers.

Don't be a bitch and you won't get treated like one. You go into a gym looking to learn BJJ/MMA you better be respectful of coaches and trainers time and don't half-ass.

bogbat · 06-10-11, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by Chairib

Don't be a bitch and you won't get treated like one. You go into a gym looking to learn BJJ/MMA you better be respectful of coaches and trainers time and don't half-ass.

I've trained at a few different Judo gyms and I'm always very respectful of my instructors and training partners. There are situations where people are deserving of being taught a lesson but those situations are few and far between. Anyway that's not what my buddy was talking about when he told me to avoid that gym. He said that Nam will have you "learn through pain and instincts" and that there has been quite a few incidents where he has injured people. This is second hand information but I believed him because he trained there for a while and seems like an honest person.

Anyway, I had a look at Nam's gym one night after eating at a restaurant nearby and the facilities there were fairly poor. For around $30 more a month you can train at Team Oyama where the facilities and coaches are awesome, especially their head BJJ coach Giva "The arm collector" Santana. They also have a good pro team, undefeated Strikeforce prospect Shane Del Rosario trains there.

Vaughany · 06-10-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

I've trained at a few different Judo gyms and I'm always very respectful of my instructors and training partners. There are situations where people are deserving of being taught a lesson but those situations are few and far between. Anyway that's not what my buddy was talking about when he told me to avoid that gym. He said that Nam will have you "learn through pain and instincts" and that there has been quite a few incidents where he has injured people. This is second hand information but I believed him because he trained there for a while and seems like an honest person.

Anyway, I had a look at Nam's gym one night after eating at a restaurant nearby and the facilities there were fairly poor. For around $30 more a month you can train at Team Oyama where the facilities and coaches are awesome, especially their head BJJ coach Giva "The arm collector" Santana. They also have a good pro team, undefeated Strikeforce prospect Shane Del Rosario trains there.

Nam doesn't seem like tht kind of dude, but I guess humbleness and humility out side of the ring can be different to inside the ring.

bjpenn85 · 06-10-11, 05:54 PM

im disgusted. i see mma daily, but for some reason i get a little disgusted by nam. Is it because the other guy doesnt seem to be capable of defending himself? or that nam phan gives him two or three unnecessary shots?

bogbat · 06-10-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Nam doesn't seem like tht kind of dude, but I guess humbleness and humility out side of the ring can be different to inside the ring.

I didn't catch the whole season of TUF that he was on but wasn't he unpopular in the house for one reason or another?

Originally posted by bjpenn85

im disgusted. i see mma daily, but for some reason i get a little disgusted by nam. Is it because the other guy doesnt seem to be capable of defending himself? or that nam phan gives him two or three unnecessary shots?

Yep, we don't know the whole story but there is really no need for that kind of brutality in the gym, especially considering that kid obviously has had little to no training.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 02:53 AM

Adding:

2 units on Head at +115 to win 2.3 units.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 05:59 AM

Summary of UFC 131 Plays:

Single straight-up plays:

10 units on Weidman at -225 to win 4.444 units;

2 units on Head at +115 to win 2.3 units;

1.1 units on Beltran at +177.5 to win 1.955 units - (Bought back on the 6.095 units that I had on Beltran at +155 with 7.5 units on Rosa at -150 so now effectively have 1.1 units on Beltran to win 1.955 units (approximately +177.5 odds);

Props and hedges:

12 units on Herman/Einemo Not going the distance at -120 to win 10 units;

5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

hedged with:

0.5 units on Florian Submission of the Night at +1500 to win 7.5 units;

0.8 units on Dos Santos by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 1.3 units;

0.5 units on Carwin by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.25 units;

0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units;

0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units;

1.35 units on Weidman by decision at +193 to win 2.596 units;

hedged with:

1.619 units on Weidman/Bongfeldt Not going the distance at -120 to win 1.349 units;

0.4 units on Stoute/Edwards FOTN at +800 to win 3.2 units;

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Vagner Rocha FOTN at +1200 to win 1.2 units;

0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.

Pending parlays:

2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units.

ddream1 · 06-11-11, 06:25 AM

hey v tailing u on the herman prop. bol this weekend

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by ddream1

hey v tailing u on the herman prop. bol this weekend

Nice one Ddream, I may still arb it with fight goes distance at +260 but having trouble depositing money at moment. Gonna wait and see how the pre-lims and spike card treats me before makin decision tho.

ufcmma36 · 06-11-11, 09:26 AM

bol tonight bro!

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 09:46 AM

jesuseatsnubs · 06-11-11, 10:07 AM

anyone know why cerrones line dropped ..

It was -383 .. now it's -340 at Pinnacle ..

seems suspicious .. perhaps they have inside knowledge of which fight will be rigged .. lol

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by jesuseatsnubs

anyone know why cerrones line dropped ..

It was -383 .. now it's -340 at Pinnacle ..

seems suspicious .. perhaps they have inside knowledge of which fight will be rigged .. lol

Are u for real!? Its hardly a dramatic difference - if Pinnacle had inside knowledge of a fight being rigged the difference would be a hell of a lot different or they jus wouldn't offer the fight! Pinnacle generally always adjust their lines to offer the best line for the favourite or underdog (reduced juice). In this case they are offering the favourite (Cerrone) at better value than other sites, but if you look at Vagner Rocha's current odds (+298) they are hardly any different to bookmaker (+290) and 5dimes/sportbet (+314). It's simply a case of people betting on Vagner because they see value in the +300 to +332 that it was at and because Pinnacle are offering best juice on Cerrone.

urge2kill · 06-11-11, 10:51 AM

LOL price moves 2% and the guy thinks it's rigged.

Kaladarus · 06-11-11, 10:54 AM

Lines move for no reason sometimes. Especially not main events/co main events. Like everyone has said it's not really a significant move in the line. All it took was a couple of people hitting the line for decent amounts based on just about anything. They could like the guy or thought he looked good in the weigh in. I wouldn't be concerned.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Summary of UFC 131 Plays:

Single straight-up plays:

10 units on Weidman at -225 to win 4.444 units;

2 units on Head at +115 to win 2.3 units;

1.1 units on Beltran at +177.5 to win 1.955 units - (Bought back on the 6.095 units that I had on Beltran at +155 with 7.5 units on Rosa at -150 so now effectively have 1.1 units on Beltran to win 1.955 units (approximately +177.5 odds);

Props and hedges:

12 units on Herman/Einemo Not going the distance at -120 to win 10 units;

5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

hedged with:

0.5 units on Florian Submission of the Night at +1500 to win 7.5 units;

0.8 units on Dos Santos by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 1.3 units;

0.5 units on Carwin by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.25 units;

0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units;

0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units;

1.35 units on Weidman by decision at +193 to win 2.596 units;

hedged with:

1.619 units on Weidman/Bongfeldt Not going the distance at -120 to win 1.349 units;

0.4 units on Stoute/Edwards FOTN at +800 to win 3.2 units;

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone/Vagner Rocha FOTN at +1200 to win 1.2 units;

0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.

Pending parlays:

2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units.

Adding:

0.8 units on Dos Santos KO of the Night at +400 to win 3.2 units;

hedged with:

1 unit on Not Dos Santos Inside the distance at -119 to win 0.84 units.

0.1 units on Poirier/Young FOTN at +1400 to win 1.4 units.

Also have a couple of no-risk arbs that I won't include on my record. Need Florian to win by decision to make 3.9 units (0.1 units profit if any other outcome); Elkins to win to make 3 units (overall stake back if Omigawa wins).

BOL all

Mr.Kitty · 06-11-11, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Florian is a real 146 badass!

funny video

But the true man of action is none other than Chuck Norris! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSU1Lvxy9Sk

jrbacon · 06-11-11, 01:44 PM

Vaughany - can I get your opinion on dos santos/ carwin to go more than 1 round. Am fairly new to mma betting and realize carwin usually ends in first but thinking Jr gives him a run for his money. Any advice would much appreciated! Price has fluctuated from -115 to -130.

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by jrbacon

Vaughany - can I get your opinion on dos santos/ carwin to go more than 1 round. Am fairly new to mma betting and realize carwin usually ends in first but thinking Jr gives him a run for his money. Any advice would much appreciated! Price has fluctuated from -115 to -130.

I actually think it's a good bet, I've been considering the Over 1.5 at +185 on Pinnacle but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Dos Santos has said that he wants to exploit Carwin's cardio and finish him in the second or third round. Add the fact that Carwin will probably have the Lesnar fight in the back of his mind and therefore be conscious about going too hard in the first round and gassing out again and I'd say there's a pretty good chance that the first round wont be as eventful as most would expect. Could see Carwin pressuring Dos Santos against the cage and jostling for position a lot in first round.

Go4theJugular · 06-11-11, 02:05 PM

the cheating steroid is getting knocked out in the 1st round

Vaughany · 06-11-11, 05:01 PM

Prelims live on youtube now... got risk-free arb on this one.... 3 units profit if Elkins wins