Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

what the fuk why did the come there lol it should say petite haha

Im thinking of parlying O´neil+Pet your thoughts on that?Would you rather change any of the picks with stephens or edwards?

The one im most confident in is O´neil.Coke dosent have anyhting good to come with only take down defence but that dosent score points O´neil have been training with Mark DellaGrotte and Jimmy Quinlan so i think he will be much more improved and against coke how dosent train full time i think it will be an easy win

BTW before i make my picks this thread is the first one i read you clearly know your fighting GL today

again what is this pet ite

haha Think u mean Pettis?! But yeah O'Neil is pretty solid, he seems to be more well-rounded than Cope and most importantly presses the action which always looks good in the judges' eyes. Obviously parlaying Pettis with Stephens would be safer but the payout would be considerably less than if you included O'Neil. I've actually got 8 units on Chuck that I forgot to post earlier.

[Vaughany]

Summary of TUF 13 Finale Plays:


10 units on Justin Edwards at -170 to win 5.882 units;


2 units on Ferguson at +130 to win 2.6 units;


1.6 units on Pettis/Guida to go the distance at -120 to win 1.333 units;

1.6 units on Guida by decision at +250 to win 4 units;

1.778 units on Pettis by decision at +225 to win 4.001 units;

0.635 units on Pettis by decision at +210 to win 1.333 units;


1.118 units on Stephens by KO at +120 to win 1.342 units;


0.5 units on Grispi by Submission at +225 to win 1.125 units.


And following parlays that involve Stephens as first leg:


Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

Also added:

8 units on O'Neil at -162.5 to win 4.923 units;

1 unit on Stephens KO of the Night at +600 to win 6 units;

0.5 units on Kingsbury by Decision at +275 to win 1.375 units.

[DigBick86]

OKi,ty for your thoughts. went with my original plays since its always seems to go bad when you deiviate from them.Pettis+O´neil it is

[Vaughany]

Adding a couple parlays:

3.043 units on Froch/Johnson Over 9.5 Rnds, Pettis/Guida Over 2.5 Rnds, & Grispi to win 3.662 units;

0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units.

[Vaughany]

Also added:

10 units on Justin Edwards at -170 to win 5.882 units;


2 units on Ferguson at +130 to win 2.6 units;


1.6 units on Pettis/Guida to go the distance at -120 to win 1.333 units;

1.6 units on Guida by decision at +250 to win 4 units;

1.778 units on Pettis by decision at +225 to win 4.001 units;

0.635 units on Pettis by decision at +210 to win 1.333 units;


1.118 units on Stephens by KO at +120 to win 1.342 units;


0.5 units on Grispi by Submission at +225 to win 1.125 units.


8 units on O'Neil at -162.5 to win 4.923 units;


1 unit on Stephens KO of the Night at +600 to win 6 units;


0.5 units on Kingsbury by Decision at +275 to win 1.375 units.

Adding a couple parlays:

3.043 units on Froch/Johnson Over 9.5 Rnds, Pettis/Guida Over 2.5 Rnds, & Grispi to win 3.662 units;

TUF 13 Finale Review:

Total stake: 31.774 units

Return: 15.008 units

Loss: -16.766 units

Horrible night, worst in a long time but guess it had to happen eventually! Would of been a lot different if Edwards had of got the decision which I think he deserved but that's MMA. All the TUF underdogs won except Bailey, and I only had one of them in Ferguson who I should of had more confidence in with his wrestling background and far superior stand-up. Also only went small on Kingsbu by decision even though I was liking and recommending it for past week Ah well on to the next one!


Still have three parlays pending though going in to UFC131 and Versus 4 events:


6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;


2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;


0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units

[BIGDAY]

Dang Vaug, dont get down bro. Glad to see your human..

I had a pretty good night as my largest plays did good with Kingsbury and Ferguson. I had Edwards also and thought he was robbed.

As always, I look forward to your next selections.

[GunShard]

I think it better to bet on the main UFC events instead of the UFC live events.

[rafa martin]

What's diamond?

diamond sportbook.......when is next fights? i do not see yr picks.......do not worry you get bored of winning always,,shows you are human....best of luck!

[MMAbetMASTA]

TUF 13 Finale Review:

Total stake: 31.774 units

Return: 15.008 units

Loss: -16.766 units

Horrible night, worst in a long time but guess it had to happen eventually! Would of been a lot different if Edwards had of got the decision which I think he deserved but that's MMA. All the TUF underdogs won except Bailey, and I only had one of them in Ferguson who I should of had more confidence in with his wrestling background and far superior stand-up. Also only went small on Kingsbu by decision even though I was liking and recommending it for past week Ah well on to the next one!


Still have three parlays pending though going in to UFC131 and Versus 4 events:


6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;


2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;


0.609 units on Froch by decision, O'Neil/Cope Over 2.5 Rnds, & Poirier to win 1.839 units

We all have our bad nights dude... You'll be back strong at 131~~~! Sounds like a lot of people on here lost last night. Wasn't a great card and lots of upsets. After reading through the discussion threads lots of people were taking edwards and oniel, seems like those were the big losses for many. I'm sure grispi screwed a lot of parlays too. I had a decent night, played ferguson, herman, and guida with str8 bets. Lost on maldonado.

[Vaughany]

I think it better to bet on the main UFC events instead of the UFC live events.

Yeah Strikeforce and TUF Finales have always been less fruitful!

[bjpenn85]

Any opinions on justin wilcox against cavalcante? I watched a couple of vids of both of them. My conclusion was that the fight may be very close and as this is a step up in competition for wilcox, its hard to know how good his sub defense is. His striking seems to ok, he has good power, but i dont know if he is as technical as cavalcante. But, if he can take him down like thompson he may have a chance winning the decision.

I think Griggs, and overeem are good bets. Maybe barnett, with rogers ko as hedge. And maybe kj noons, as masvidal often loose to better strikers (daley, imada).

[Poppa Catfish]

Hang in there kitty.

So what is the play this weekend?

[Vaughany]

Hang in there kitty.

So what is the play this weekend?

Already got 10 units on Weidman at -225.

Other than that and the parlays I've got involving Cerrone and Poirier I'll be looking to add..

Couple units on James Head if he's dog against Ring.

Ken Flo/Nunes to decision hedged with Ken Flo submission of the Night

Stout/Edwards to decision

Omigawa depending on line

[Poppa Catfish]

I especially like the Nunes/Ken Flo hedge.

Best of luck to ya

[Vaughany]

Adding:

5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

0.684 units on Florian by decision at +200 to win 1.368 units;


0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units.

[Ladle]

0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units.

I feel like one of these is going to hit. Been missing most of my props lately so gotta get lucky sometime, right?

[sirchadwick1]

I know the minute that I put my $ on Maia winning by sub, he'll get the decision nod.... lol.

I think in this fight I'm sticking w/ my $ straight up on Maia hedged with Munoz by KO. Have a hard time picturing Munoz winning on the scorecards, as his MMA wrestling is not impressive to me. Hell Demian will probably take him down first.

[Ladle]

I know the minute that I put my $ on Maia winning by sub, he'll get the decision nod.... lol.

I think in this fight I'm sticking w/ my $ straight up on Maia hedged with Munoz by KO. Have a hard time picturing Munoz winning on the scorecards, as his MMA wrestling is not impressive to me. Hell Demian will probably take him down first.

I think Maia is more likely to pull guard and sweep than get a takedown. Either way, Munoz is in a ton of trouble if this fight hits the mat at any point. I plan on putting a few units down on Maia winning Sub of the Night and hedging it with a straight bet on Munoz.

[bjpenn85]

where did you get nunes florian distance props?

[bjpenn85]

paddy off course, thats visible by the amount of the wager.

[Chairib]

hapansilakka!

[Vaughany]

Adding:

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 1 unit;

0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Adding:

5.5 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -110 to win 5 units;

1.611 units on Florian/Nunes to go the distance at -120 to win 1.343 units;

0.684 units on Florian by decision at +200 to win 1.368 units;


0.309 units on Maia by Submission at +450 to win 1.391 units;

0.309 units on Munoz by KO at +450 to win 1.391 units.

Loving these prop bets Vaughany! I wish I could do this with my bookie, I gotta open an acount online just for these prop bets.

Munoz by KO is money at +450!!! I'm calling 1st round KO, can't believe so many people are picking maia, let alone by sub. He's never subbed anyone after 3 minutes in his ufc fights and he couldn't pull the trigger when he had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights. If he does tie up mark, I think mark will be too powerful physically and can muscle out of hairy spots (and combine that with those bombs he throws from any position, I don't see a sub in this fight).

Who is your outright pick in this fight, Vaughany?

I'm curious because I am thinking I am gonna stack on Munoz for a str8 bet... Poeple are saying its a pick em' and not a good fight to bet str8 on, but I think this will be lopsided and is a perfect style for munoz to beat. I've been wrong before on my big bets, but I think munoz got this

Also liking nunes for the upset, and thinking about a play on aaron rosa over beltran. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet tho...

[ddream1]

i have weidmain also, bol to us

[Vaughany]

Loving these prop bets Vaughany! I wish I could do this with my bookie, I gotta open an acount online just for these prop bets.

Munoz by KO is money at +450!!! I'm calling 1st round KO, can't believe so many people are picking maia, let alone by sub. He's never subbed anyone after 3 minutes in his ufc fights and he couldn't pull the trigger when he had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights. If he does tie up mark, I think mark will be too powerful physically and can muscle out of hairy spots (and combine that with those bombs he throws from any position, I don't see a sub in this fight).

Who is your outright pick in this fight, Vaughany?

I'm curious because I am thinking I am gonna stack on Munoz for a str8 bet... Poeple are saying its a pick em' and not a good fight to bet str8 on, but I think this will be lopsided and is a perfect style for munoz to beat. I've been wrong before on my big bets, but I think munoz got this

Also liking nunes for the upset, and thinking about a play on aaron rosa over beltran. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet tho...

My outright pick is on Weidman but I got him at -225, wouln't take him straight up at worse than -225 tho.

I lean towards Munoz, and waiting to see how the line moves as I'm anticipating Maia ending up slight favourite come fight time, could be wrong tho. Munoz has been rolling with guys tht have beaten Maia in BJJ competition and he is gonna have a size and power advantage but I still can't rule out Maia subbing him. Maia didn't have any intention of subbing Dan Miller as he wanted to keep it standing and prove his improvements in stand-up. And Miranda and Grove are black-belts with considerable experience (Miranda has never been subbed in MMA competition and Grove has never been subbed in UFC) so wasn't goin to be easy to sub either of them. The Sonnen take-down and subsequent submission is understandably being referred to a lot in pro-Maia arguments. However, I guess one may argue that Maia didn't have to worry about the striking or power of Sonnen so wasn't concerned about getting close and clinching with him, against Munoz he'll have to be weary of gettin blasted when he gets in to range. That's why I expect to see Maia get low as possible and go for the single or pull guard like he did early on against Sonnen. Very interesting fight though

[Vaughany]

Adding:

0.133 units on Florian/Nunes FOTN at +1200 to win 1.596 units;

0.1 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 1 unit;

0.066 units on Poirier Submission of the Night at +2200 to win 1.452 units;

0.05 units on Omigawa Submission of the Night at +3000 to win 1.5 units.

Adding another 0.5 units to Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 so have:

0.6 units on Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 to win 6 units;

Hedged with:

1 unit on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance at -128 to win 0.781 units.

So as long as Cerrone doesn't win by submission I won't lose anything (will make 5 units if he does win by TKO/KO. Happily risk 1.6 units on Cerrone not winning by submission against a decent black belt in Vagner Rocha. Some Euro bookies have Cerrone by submission as the most likely outcome with Ladbrokes having him at Evens to win by sub! Firstly, Cerrone comes from a kick-boxing/Muay Thai back ground and he has said numerous times that he prefers to keep it standing and strike with opponents and look for the knockout rather than going to the ground. He said after the Kelly fight that he is getting frustrated with his failure to knock guys out and that although it's obviously not a bad thing that he's choking dudes out, it is something that he wanted to work on and get back to in the future (again this is because striking is his roots). And now we have a fight against a guy with limited striking and high-level BJJ in Vagner Rocha that could be a perfect opportunity and even a showcase for Cerrone to use to conquer this frustration and I think he'll have this notion in his head. Also, Greg Jackson will undoubtedly instruct Cerrone to keep it standing and play to his main advantage in the fight which is undoubtedly in the stand-up.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Cerrone has never faced a legit BJJ black-belt before. Have a look at Cerrone's list of opponents, they are predominantly strikers (or at least guys that like to stand and bang) and again, this is because Cerrone is primarily a striker and it made sense for WEC/UFC to match him up against other strikers such as Radcliffe, Horodecki, Kelly, and McCullough. Now don't get me wrong, choking out and arm-barring guys like Njokuani, Ratcliff, Horodecki, Kelly and Krause is very impressive, however, the most threatening grappler and BJJ guy that Cerrone has probably faced is Ben Henderson and he lost a decision and then got choked out in the first round in the re-match.
I think a Cerrone decision is the most likely outcome as I'm still not convinced that he has the necessary striking power to finish Vagner with strikes. I wouldn't rule out a submission, of course Cerrone is always going be a submission threat against anybody, he has great hips and an aggressive guard, plus he could quite feasibly damage Vagner with strikes and then finish with a rear-naked or something. Nonetheless, I think tht the difference in odds between Cerrone by TKO/KO at +1000 and Cerrone by Submission at Evens is totally ridiculous and will happily try and exploit that with this hedge!

[Chairib]

Someone awarded Grove a bb?

[sirchadwick1]

+1000 on Cerrone by TKO??? Wow, I think it's a good possibility that this hits and that's solid value.

[bogbat]

+1000 on Cerrone by TKO??? Wow, I think it's a good possibility that this hits and that's solid value.

Seriously, that could be a bad line.

[thesox0311]

Have you seen a line on the Omigawa, ring, or new line on the Sozynski fight yet?

[Vaughany]

Seriously, that could be a bad line.

Don't think so, it came out at +1000 on Paddypower on Monday (down to +700 currently), then Ladbrokes brought it out at +1000 today as well. Eurobooks just seem very confident that he's gonna submit or decision Vagner!

[SBRtv Judie]

Thanks for the info here. Ladle once again sorry about the misspelling and mispronunciation.

[bjpenn85]

thanks vaugh. A made a blue print of that bet.

[FightFightFight]

Wasnt everybody just ripping on Ghost Kid for saying Cerrone ko?

[Vaughany]

Have you seen a line on the Omigawa, ring, or new line on the Sozynski fight yet?

Nah they're takin the piss, taking ages to release them! Im hopin to get Head at a generous opener but they could release them at any time over next 24hrs.