Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Hopped on both of these too. I love me some Paddy Power!

Yeah Stephens by KO down to 8/13 already, just wish I didn't have such crap limits!

Not sure if we're gonna get KOTN, SOTN or FOTN anywhere neither, don't think any books offered them at the last finale as I remember I wanted to get McKenzie SOTN but didnt get to.

[xelance]

got a nice Stephens, Jorgenson, Pettis parlay for this weekend and going huge on Kongo/ Weidman Parlay and Kongo -175 Best of luck Vaughany!

[Vaughany]

Adding:

10 units on Weidman at -225 to win 4.444 units;

Parlay: 2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;


1.6 units on Guida by decision at +250 to win 4 units;

1.778 units on Pettis by decision at +225 to win 4.001 units.

[Vaughany]

I was wondering why you like Beltran to win? I still haven't looked at Rosa yet.

I don't think Beltran deserves to be a +155 or worse dog in this one. Rosa doesn't train full time and will be his debut in UFC against a guy who is tough as hell, steadily improving, in a great camp and in desperate need of a win in order to avoid getting cut. I think Rosa can get a decision through using his size advantage to pressure Beltran against the cage and get the better of the dirty boxing, and also use his size to get Beltran to the mat so may hedge with tht. Beltran has the advantage of having two big guys in Gustaffsson and Browne to spar with who are better than Rosa in all areas IMO.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;

10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;

10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;

11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;


6.095 units on Beltran at +155 to win 9.447 units;


6.095 units on Pierce at +115 to win 7.009 units;

6.095 units on Pierce at +110 to win 6.705 units.

Line movement for Pierce and Kongo as I hoped in my favour - Pierce now -130 favourite on 5dimes/Sportbet and Kongo -215. Beltran though is now +160 on 5dimes/Sportbet but +145 on bodog and +135 on sportsbook.

[BIGDAY]

Line movement for Pierce and Kongo as I hoped in my favour - Pierce now -130 favourite on 5dimes/Sportbet and Kongo -215. Beltran though is now +160 on 5dimes/Sportbet but +145 on bodog and +135 on sportsbook.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

2 units on Ferguson at +130 to win 2.6 units.

I was actually quite impressed with Ferguson's striking, he mixes leg-kicks, body shots, jabs and hooks quite well and also has some head-movement. He clearly has the advantage standing in this one, and despite not seeing much of it during TUF, he is also a solid wrestler (All-American honours) so hopefully will be able to keep it standing and pick Ramsay apart or TKO/KO him. Only concern is that he was taken down by Justin Edwards, but Edwards is also a good wrestler, and Ferguson was able to get up almost immediately after the first takedown and then knocked Edwards out with an upkick after being taken down the second time. Also, bare in mind that Ramsey is a natural LW (he fought his last official fight at LW). Interesting quote from Ferguson about the up-kick...

"From that position I've got a lot of attacks. I actually have a background in breakdancing and that allows me to position my hips a bunch of different ways to throw things at guys they've never seen. You notice that wasn't a straight up kick, bottom to top. That was a heel strike that moved side to side. That balance on my hips and the ability to still generate power comes from hard training and a little bit of breakdancing, too.

[The HOFF]

I played Ferguson too. I'm just keeping my plays a little bit smaller on the TUF fights because they are so unpredictable.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

10 units on Justin Edwards at -170 to win 5.882 units.

This is a wrestler versus striker match-up and I'll happily take a wrestler like Edwards at anything better than -200 against an average striker in Harvison. I'm confident Edwards will be able to get this to the ground and either get a submission or dominant decision win. Ramsey Nijem said in an interview that he thought Edwards was the toughest guy in the house.

[Vaughany]

I played Ferguson too. I'm just keeping my plays a little bit smaller on the TUF fights because they are so unpredictable.

Yeah, it's risky for sure with these TUF fighters, Ramsey could well end up takin Ferguson down and choking him out.

[BIGDAY]

Adding:

2 units on Ferguson at +130 to win 2.6 units.

I was actually quite impressed with Ferguson's striking, he mixes leg-kicks, body shots, jabs and hooks quite well and also has some head-movement. He clearly has the advantage standing in this one, and despite not seeing much of it during TUF, he is also a solid wrestler (All-American honours) so hopefully will be able to keep it standing and pick Ramsay apart or TKO/KO him. Only concern is that he was taken down by Justin Edwards, but Edwards is also a good wrestler, and Ferguson was able to get up almost immediately after the first takedown and then knocked Edwards out with an upkick after being taken down the second time. Also, bare in mind that Ramsey is a natural LW (he fought his last official fight at LW). Interesting quote from Ferguson about the up-kick...

"From that position I've got a lot of attacks. I actually have a background in breakdancing and that allows me to position my hips a bunch of different ways to throw things at guys they've never seen. You notice that wasn't a straight up kick, bottom to top. That was a heel strike that moved side to side. That balance on my hips and the ability to still generate power comes from hard training and a little bit of breakdancing, too.

Awesome head movement and very smooth striking. Ramsey's wrestling didn't overwelm me at all.

Large play for me.

[BIGDAY]

Adding:

10 units on Justin Edwards at -170 to win 5.882 units.

This is a wrestler versus striker match-up and I'll happily take a wrestler like Edwards at anything better than -200 against an average striker in Harvison. I'm confident Edwards will be able to get this to the ground and either get a submission or dominant decision win. Ramsey Nijem said in an interview that he thought Edwards was the toughest guy in the house.

I like this wrestling love your finding!

[Vaughany]

Adding:

10 units on Marquardt at -150 to win 6.667 units.

[Ladle]

I don't think Beltran deserves to be a +155 or worse dog in this one. Rosa doesn't train full time and will be his debut in UFC against a guy who is tough as hell, steadily improving, in a great camp and in desperate need of a win in order to avoid getting cut. I think Rosa can get a decision through using his size advantage to pressure Beltran against the cage and get the better of the dirty boxing, and also use his size to get Beltran to the mat so may hedge with tht. Beltran has the advantage of having two big guys in Gustaffsson and Browne to spar with who are better than Rosa in all areas IMO.

Beltran doesn't impress me at all. He's tough, but he got hit by a gassed, glacially slow Tim Hague. He also got mounted by an exhausted Hague nearly 14 minutes into their slop-fest. He's just not that good.

[pellibr]

wich bookmakers are you betting on? thanks!

[Vaughany]

wich bookmakers are you betting on? thanks!

Lots of Euro ones and bookmaker, sportbet & Pinnacle.

[Vaughany]

Summary of TUF 13 Finale Plays:


10 units on Justin Edwards at -170 to win 5.882 units;


2 units on Ferguson at +130 to win 2.6 units;


1.6 units on Pettis/Guida to go the distance at -120 to win 1.333 units;

1.6 units on Guida by decision at +250 to win 4 units;

1.778 units on Pettis by decision at +225 to win 4.001 units;

0.635 units on Pettis by decision at +210 to win 1.333 units;


1.118 units on Stephens by KO at +120 to win 1.342 units;


0.5 units on Grispi by Submission at +225 to win 1.125 units.


And following parlays that involve Stephens as first leg:


Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;


Parlay: 2.5 units on Stephens, Weidman, & Cerrone to win 3.469 units;

[bjpenn85]

i try to find footage of edwards, its not easy, you seem confident? what are youre thoughts about edwards vs clay?

[Vaughany]

i try to find footage of edwards, its not easy, you seem confident? what are youre thoughts about edwards vs clay?

Clay is a one-dimensional stand-up fighter who doesn't pack too much power so I don't foresee him knocking Edwards out - Edwards took some solid shots from Ferguson and kept coming forward. This means that he will need to sprawl and brawl and try and do enough damage to take a decision. He showed that he has reasonable takedown defence against Mick Bowman, but let us not forget that Bowman is your typical young and distinctly average Wolfslair fighter the UFC likes to put in Ultimate Fighters (Aaron Wilkinson was his predecessor!). Bowman has limited wrestling experience so it wasn't surprising that he couldn't take down Harvison. Harvison then proceeded to get tapped out quickly by somebody who does have considerable wrestling pedigree in Ramsey Nijem - I could see a similar situation happening in this fight, with Edwards using the Ramsey fight as a blueprint - based on the Ferguson fight and his record, Edwards likes to push forward aggressively as soon as the bell rings and get his opponent down and delivery GnP and then lock on a submission - he has a powerful guillotine. Edwards was able to take down arguably the best wrestler in the competition in Ferguson (twice) so I find it hard to imagine Harvison stuffing his takedowns like he did with Bowman. Dos Santos said that he thought Edwards was one of the most well-rounded guys in the competition and Ramsey has also said in an interview that he thought Edwards was the toughest guy. He also has a reasonable camp at Gurgel's gym - rolling with a legend like Rich Franklin can only help.

But as Bigday said, these TUF events can be very unpredictable and fighters can look completely different in these fights to what they looked like on the show. Nonetheless, at -170 I was more than happy to take Edwards, but I wouldn't take him at the current odds of -210 to -215.

[bjpenn85]

I blasted a 12 unit parlay with grispi and edwards. Just the first minute round made me aware of how much better edwards is. We are talking upsets if clay can win this one. Did anyone notice how quickly ferguson was up to his feet after edwards took him down? jesus, ramseys is going down

[cheeese]

Thanks for the analysis V

[rocky mattioli]

I blasted a 12 unit parlay with grispi and edwards. Just the first minute round made me aware of how much better edwards is. We are talking upsets if clay can win this one. Did anyone notice how quickly ferguson was up to his feet after edwards took him down? jesus, ramseys is going down

sorry to be redundant...not sure if everybody saw the blurb on wiki regarding ferguson`s athletic prowess....everybody`s talking about nijem`s wrestling....but ferguson is no piker....

""i
Ferguson took to athletics extraordinarily well, and went on to earn 12 varsity letters at Muskegon Catholic Central High School in football, baseball and wrestling. He was the starting cornerback on the 2002 state football champions and was a three-time All-State selection in wrestling, winning the 152 lbs division in 2002.
After high school, Ferguson enrolled in Central Michigan University before transferring to Grand Valley State University on a full wrestling scholarship. There, he went on to garner All-American honors twice, winning the national championship in the 165 lbs division once.""

that`s impressive...

[Ladle]

sorry to be redundant...not sure if everybody saw the blurb on wiki regarding ferguson`s athletic prowess....everybody`s talking about nijem`s wrestling....but ferguson is no piker....

""i
Ferguson took to athletics extraordinarily well, and went on to earn 12 varsity letters at Muskegon Catholic Central High School in football, baseball and wrestling. He was the starting cornerback on the 2002 state football champions and was a three-time All-State selection in wrestling, winning the 152 lbs division in 2002.
After high school, Ferguson enrolled in Central Michigan University before transferring to Grand Valley State University on a full wrestling scholarship. There, he went on to garner All-American honors twice, winning the national championship in the 165 lbs division once.""

that`s impressive...

Yeah, certainly is. Even then, you only need to watch him in the octagon to see that he's an excellent athlete. Very speedy and fleet of foot.

[Vaughany]

sorry to be redundant...not sure if everybody saw the blurb on wiki regarding ferguson`s athletic prowess....everybody`s talking about nijem`s wrestling....but ferguson is no piker....

""i
Ferguson took to athletics extraordinarily well, and went on to earn 12 varsity letters at Muskegon Catholic Central High School in football, baseball and wrestling. He was the starting cornerback on the 2002 state football champions and was a three-time All-State selection in wrestling, winning the 152 lbs division in 2002.
After high school, Ferguson enrolled in Central Michigan University before transferring to Grand Valley State University on a full wrestling scholarship. There, he went on to garner All-American honors twice, winning the national championship in the 165 lbs division once.""

that`s impressive...

Yeah, certainly is. Even then, you only need to watch him in the octagon to see that he's an excellent athlete. Very speedy and fleet of foot.

He's also an awesome break-dancer apparently!

Ramsey doesn't think much of his wrestling, had this to say in an interview...

"His college wrestling wasn't real college wrestling -- it was club wrestling. It's below junior college. I wouldn't really consider him a college wrestler or really a wrestler at all. So I think I have an advantage there but my game plan is to exploit his weaknesses everywhere. He doesn't protect his chin after he jabs, so that's an area where I can hurt him, and I eventually plan to get his back on the ground and choke him out. I feel like I have decent hands and I definitely am a better wrestler and have jiu jitsu and can control the fight."

Ramsey also wants to get "revenge" for his best mate Brock Jardine who Ferguson KO'd a while ago. Ferguson's got this whole "me against the world" thing going on, he's gonna be very hard breakdown mentally.

[Vaughany]

Just grabbed a nice arb with Guida hitting +200 on Pinnacle and getting Pettis at -162.5 and -175. Will make 8.715 units if Pettis wins, and 0.375 units if Guida wins. Clearly routing for Pettis in this one and preferably a Pettis decision as that would make me over 11 units profit.

[Ladle]

Just grabbed a nice arb with Guida hitting +200 on Pinnacle and getting Pettis at -162.5 and -175. Will make 8.715 units if Pettis wins, and 0.375 units if Guida wins. Clearly routing for Pettis in this one and preferably a Pettis decision as that would make me over 11 units profit.

Nice. I've just hedged my bet on Pettis with Guida by decision.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Clay is a one-dimensional stand-up fighter who doesn't pack too much power so I don't foresee him knocking Edwards out - Edwards took some solid shots from Ferguson and kept coming forward. This means that he will need to sprawl and brawl and try and do enough damage to take a decision. He showed that he has reasonable takedown defence against Mick Bowman, but let us not forget that Bowman is your typical young and distinctly average Wolfslair fighter the UFC likes to put in Ultimate Fighters (Aaron Wilkinson was his predecessor!). Bowman has limited wrestling experience so it wasn't surprising that he couldn't take down Harvison. Harvison then proceeded to get tapped out quickly by somebody who does have considerable wrestling pedigree in Ramsey Nijem - I could see a similar situation happening in this fight, with Edwards using the Ramsey fight as a blueprint - based on the Ferguson fight and his record, Edwards likes to push forward aggressively as soon as the bell rings and get his opponent down and delivery GnP and then lock on a submission - he has a powerful guillotine. Edwards was able to take down arguably the best wrestler in the competition in Ferguson (twice) so I find it hard to imagine Harvison stuffing his takedowns like he did with Bowman. Dos Santos said that he thought Edwards was one of the most well-rounded guys in the competition and Ramsey has also said in an interview that he thought Edwards was the toughest guy. He also has a reasonable camp at Gurgel's gym - rolling with a legend like Rich Franklin can only help.

But as Bigday said, these TUF events can be very unpredictable and fighters can look completely different in these fights to what they looked like on the show. Nonetheless, at -170 I was more than happy to take Edwards, but I wouldn't take him at the current odds of -210 to -215.

Great discussion here, Vaughany. I am now surprisingly turned on by the edwards match. Clay never really impressed (even with the stand up it didn't look too spectacular). However, like you said current odds are kind of scary to make a play, wish I would have saw this sooner.

I still like the ferguson play and I think you guys have some great discussion in here to help analyze this fight, thanks!

[thesox0311]

Good Luck tonight everyone....BTW on Diamond got Stephens KO of the Night at +800 not too shabby

[bjpenn85]

what is the full adress of that bookie, diamond?

[Jordan23]

I like your Stephens by KO play. Seems pretty solid. I feel like Stephens is definitely going to be coming out swinging tonight.

[urge2kill]

Good Luck tonight everyone....BTW on Diamond got Stephens KO of the Night at +800 not too shabby

+600 now. Still worth a play I think.

[Vaughany]

What's diamond?

[DigBick86]

Im thinking of parlying O´neil+Pet your thoughts on that?Would you rather change any of the picks with stephens or edwards?

The one im most confident in is O´neil.Coke dosent have anyhting good to come with only take down defence but that dosent score points O´neil have been training with Mark DellaGrotte and Jimmy Quinlan so i think he will be much more improved and against coke how dosent train full time i think it will be an easy win

BTW before i make my picks this thread is the first one i read you clearly know your fighting GL today

[DigBick86]

what the fuk why did the come there lol it should say petite haha

[DigBick86]

again what is this pet ite