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Do you reckon Demetrious could knock him out? I'm thinking a jumping hook.Comment -
yeah i reckonComment -
you won again! congratulations and keep it up man!!!,,your discipline APPROACH IS what amazes me the most.....what do you do now? will you close your books until next ufc 131--or whatever number is coming??? is is true you only bet on ufc and mma fights? is hard to believe but you mastered at this thanks vaughany,,,hope this 5 dimes or bet online books i just opened display all the props you play,,like i told you before do not like paddy power.Comment -
I saw you liked the play on Kingsbury by decision. Why do you think Kingsbury will win?Comment -
Kingsbury grind out victories. He is fighter that seems to develop and he has to victories of notice on his record. One being Jared hamman, the other ricardo romero. Maldonado also has some decent victories under his belt, but the last fight against james mcsweeney doesnt do it for me. Mcsveeney may be a better suited fighter at light heavy, but still, i would have thought that maldonado with his quite impressive record would roll over him. I actually scored the first round to the brit. Kingsbury should take it. But i would like to see more of maldonado to make an educated prediction built on empiri an not only one fight. The problem with this fight is that maldonado may be the more technical fighter standing, but lack the power kingsbury have, while kingsburry have the wrestling but not the same bjj skills. On youtube, you can see that maldonado actually has something to show on the ground. Any maldonado /kingsbury experts that could take it from here?Comment -
I agree with what Mr BJpenn has to say above and in the other thread.
I have to admit I'm picking Kingsbu by decision based largely on Kingsbury's evolution over past couple of years without knowing too much about Maldonado's wrestling or ground game off his back. Few things we do know is that Kingsbu is now a huge, ripped and explosive LHW thanks to the infamous Victor Conte! He also has improved Muay Thai after spending extended periods at Tiger Muay Thai. His wrestling is reasonable although not as good as other LHW's like Bader and Lawler (before he moved to MW) who both dominated Kingsbu with wrestling. He also has a solid chin which may well be needed against Maldonado as he showed in the Hamann fight that his striking defense is still limited. With regards to Maldonado we know that he trains at a solid camp in Brazil, has great boxing, and a solid chin. IMO he is just a LHW version of Dos Santos to a certain extent, solid boxing without great defense (keeps hands quite low and doesn't have much head movement), and rarely uses leg kicks. And as with Dos Santos we can't be sure how good is take-down defense is or how good he is off his back as he hasn't faced anybody whose base is predominantly wrestling. Maldonado was fed a one-dimensional striker (and average at that one dimension!) in McSweeney for his debut and after a shaky first round where he shook off the cobwebs and found his rhythm, he proceeded to destroy McSweeney over two-rounds with brutal body shots and combos. Dos Santos has had a similar UFC career trajectory as he hasn't had to face high-level wrestlers, however this is partly due to the fact that the HW division doesn't have the array of high-level wrestlers that other divisions such as WW and MW have. The likes of Werdum, Struve, Gonzaga, Cro-Cop, Yvel and Nelson never really offered a serious take-down threat to Dos Santos and it is not until now with originally Lesnar and now Carwin that he will be facing somebody with at least half-decent wrestling and perhaps more importantly a strategy that may involve looking 4 takedowns (Struve, Gonzaga, Cro-Cop and Yvel probably had no intention of trying to take him down). Unfortunately for Maldonado, being in the stacked LHW means that it's not as easy to find one dimensional fighters, there aren't many Gilbert Yvels, Cro-Cops, and Barrys around, meaning his time with a wrestler is coming a lot sooner than Dos Santos'!Comment -
I'm a bit wary of playing Kingsbury by decision just because Maldonado has barely anything at all on the ground, especially off of his back. Kingsbu doesn't have to be a world-beater to take him down and tap him.
I might just bet on Kingsbury to win out-right, perhaps with an inexpensive hedge on Maldonda wins KO of the Night (hopefully at some big odds on Paddy).Comment -
man. i almost getting horny reading this. you wright good.Comment -
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My favorite thing to do as well, expose people that cant wright properly. Good job nunybidness, good job.Comment -
write*Comment -
You OK with a parlay of Stephens, Grispi, and Jorgensen for this weekend?Comment -
Good luck Vaug! I might be parlaying Stephens and Kingsbury Saturday. Look forward to your selections as always.
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Adding:
Parlay: 6.095 units on Stephens & Kongo to win 6.222 units;
10.062 units on Kongo at -165 to win 6.095 units;
10.976 units on Kongo at -180 to win 6.095 units;
11.885 units on Kongo at -195 to win 6.095 units;
6.095 units on Beltran at +155 to win 9.447 units;
6.095 units on Pierce at +115 to win 7.009 units;
6.095 units on Pierce at +110 to win 6.705 units.
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Vaugh, why are you betting 30+ units on Kongo, preparing a hedge or something? I'm getting confused by your units. Could you tell me in how many units your bankroll is divided and do you have any limitations for a maximum bet? i.e. 10/10u. This would help me to size my stake properly when i tail your picks.
Thanks in advance!Comment -
Why so heavy on Pierce, V? Just confident or do you think Hendricks will end up the underdog?Comment -
i would def also pick pierce here. He seems to be very strong. That will give hendricks problems. And the line will probably shift as well.Comment -
Kongo makes me a little nervus. And as the line goes past -200 less and less value imo.Comment -
I'm very confident Kongo wins and capped him at -225 to -250 range. Unless I hear about Kongo having injuries or something I won't be hedging. My units and bankroll are different to most - rather than having a set amount as my bankroll, I base my "bankroll" on my profits gained so far and have a general rule that I never bet more than 15% of my profits made on one particular outcome (unless it's an arb of course). So my profit is +323.8 units so I won't bet more than 48.57 units (15% of 323.8) on one outcome. Within that I have other general rules like not betting big on anything worse than -200 but exceptions are made if I think the fighter I like to win isn't at a disadvantage in any area - as was the case with Semerzier against Bruce Leeroy so took him at -225! With Kongo vs Barry, I think Kongo trumps him everywhere except leg kicks! IMO Kongo has wrestling, BJJ, strength + size, reach, experience advantage and pretty much equal in striking so to get him at anything better than -200 meant that I couldn't resist going big!
Bit of both! I expected Pierce to be slight favourite and still think it might end up that way so have possibility of hedging. But more likely I'll put a similar amount on fight going the distance as I can't see Hendricks finishing Pierce. I think it could be similar to the Story fight - like Story I feel Pierce has size and power advantage and good enough wrestling to keep it standing, and maybe get some takedowns of his own - Brenneman was able to take down Hendricks so don't see why Pierce can't.Comment -
I was wondering why you like Beltran to win? I still haven't looked at Rosa yet.Comment -
I was prepared to take either of them at better than even money (got Pierce at +120 at Sportsbook which I feel is a very generous line). I'd say Hendricks is a better boxer but Pierce's wrestling seems to have transitioned a bit more smoothly to MMA. I can definitely imagine Pierce smothering Hendricks up against the cage, perhaps scoring the occasion takedown and knuckle-dusting him on the ground for a bit. As you said, it could potentially look very similar to the Rick Story fight.Bit of both! I expected Pierce to be slight favourite and still think it might end up that way so have possibility of hedging. But more likely I'll put a similar amount on fight going the distance as I can't see Hendricks finishing Pierce. I think it could be similar to the Story fight - like Story I feel Pierce has size and power advantage and good enough wrestling to keep it standing, and maybe get some takedowns of his own - Brenneman was able to take down Hendricks so don't see why Pierce can't.
My only concern with betting on the fight to go the distance is that Pierce keeps his left hand very low when throwing the straight right (which seems to be his money punch). Kenny Robertson came very close to countering that punch before he got knocked out, and if Hendricks can counter it, I think Pierce could be in trouble. Hendricks has clobbered several dudes pretty badly.Comment -
TUF 13 Finale Plays:
1.6 units on Pettis/Guida to go the distance at -120 to win 1.333 units;
0.635 units on Pettis by decision at +210 to win 1.333 units.Comment -
Adding:
1.118 units on Stephens by KO at +120 to win 1.342 units;
0.5 units on Grispi by Submission at +225 to win 1.125 units.Comment
You OK with a parlay of Stephens, Grispi, and Jorgensen for this weekend?