Boxing/MMA PLAYS

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 04:46 PM

Gl EDU

Miranda's gonna make or break my night

**ThisGuy** · 06-12-10, 04:52 PM

Ya tbh I haven't really understood the over the top love for Miranda. I get it if you liked him at the earlier numbers but ppl still think he's a steal at current lines?!?

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 04:53 PM

why not, he arguably has the edge in every aspect of mma

better wrestler, wayyy better bjj, stand-up is close to even imo

**ThisGuy** · 06-12-10, 05:03 PM

How strong is his chin though? Has he faced a similar opponent? I try to look for value in large dogs if there's much in the way of the unknown. If I don't come up with a clear cut strong play/lean on the handicap of a fight I look for possible value in the line. Miranda might smoke him but I bet a lot of dogs

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-12-10, 05:14 PM

The only value I could see in Loiseau is if Miranda decides to stand and trade. Technically, Miranda's striking looks pretty sound, but why play to Loiseau's best skill? He better get it to the mat

If Loiseau were a larger dog, I'd see some value there, but not at current odds (+195). For +195, there's more value in Kampmann imho.

**ThisGuy** · 06-12-10, 06:03 PM

Agreed, have a bet on him too. Prbly will lose both but it's a volume thing

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 07:51 PM

Miranda wins by tko

bought back for .75 units on Dunham at +182

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-12-10, 07:53 PM

Good sh*t.

Contemplating a late play on Dunham myself...

**Vaughany** · 06-12-10, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Miranda wins by tko

bought back for .75 units on Dunham at +182

Nice gd work! Ive got Miranda in my big parlay...should of put him in a double with Wilks or Barry tho me thinks!

**ThisGuy** · 06-12-10, 08:59 PM

GG Bro, Dunham and Wiman still have me in the plus currently

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 09:36 PM

damn, 9 seconds away from my decision prop

added one more straddle

Mirko +150 x1

Barry wins by 3 round decision +639 x.5

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-12-10, 09:39 PM

That's a bad beat there Ill...

Unless Yvel/Rothwell or Barry/Cro Cop goes a full 3 standing, I'm hoping that first fight gets my FOTN prop bet

**Kaladarus** · 06-12-10, 09:39 PM

I made the same prop bet, that was a disaster.

**Eccocide** · 06-12-10, 09:44 PM

Woulda won 7 units on that decision. Unreal.

**Vaughany** · 06-12-10, 09:49 PM

Glad Paddypower didnt allow prop bets on the prelims or Condit fight! Id have had all three of them goin to decision with the expectation tht at least two of them would of gone the 3 rounds!

**POTVINSUX** · 06-12-10, 10:02 PM

Thiago Alves will kick the shyt outa his opponent

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-12-10, 10:06 PM

You're two events early there champ...

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

11. insurance parlay x.25
Condit +125
James Wilks -355
Paulo Thiago -235
Rothwell/Yvel goes 3 round distance +320

hedge for this parlay

added Martin Kampmann +200 x1

**Vaughany** · 06-12-10, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by POTVINSUX

Thiago Alves will kick the shyt outa his opponent

haha cool story bro!

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 11:38 PM

-1.5 units tonight, both of my decision props were off by less than a minute and Yves fuks me on one of my straddles

**Kaladarus** · 06-12-10, 11:39 PM

those were great value plays, sucks they didn't hit

**illmatick** · 06-13-10, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

those were great value plays, sucks they didn't hit

should have been an easy 2-0, just wish Macdonald would have paced himself a little better

correction on my record for yesterday, I also had another small play on Crocop that i locked up last month, it's in my other ufc thread, should be only a -1.2 unit loss last night

parlay x1.5
Aaron Simpson -360
Bryan Baker-410
Fedor -650

Joe Stevenson -215 x3

**Chairib** · 06-13-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

should have been an easy 2-0, just wish Macdonald would have paced himself a little better

correction on my record for yesterday, I also had another small play on Crocop that i locked up last month, it's in my other ufc thread, should be only a -1.2 unit loss last night

parlay x1.5
Aaron Simpson -360
Bryan Baker-410
Fedor -650

Joe Stevenson -215 x3

Rory's got to work on his conditioning and strength. He was using a lot of energy just to keep Condit on the ground.

**Chairib** · 06-13-10, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

tyson has some tree trunks, that's for sure, that's probably the only reason he didn't tap to that akward leg compression from DOS ANJOS, something would have probably snapped on an avg size quad

I just checked your twitter Charib, pretty cool that Joey left a few comments,

if you get a chance to ask him, find out what he was thinking on opening GSP at only -340, seems like an incredibly soft line to me.. that thing is going to get so much action, I would have expected something around -420

Yo I just noticed this comment illmatick and I'll drop Joey a PM about it. Get a twitter account man!

**brooks85** · 06-13-10, 02:15 PM

o im jacking that parlay

**southmadejd** · 06-13-10, 03:07 PM

Hey Ilmatik or anybody for that matter, what do you think the odds will be on varner vs. shalorus??? If that opens up with Shalorus as a dog I think I am going to make a big bet on him. I know Varner has a wrestling background but it seems as though Shalorus toys with even collegiate wrestlers and he seems to have a decent chin on him. Does anybody else think he could keep Varner on his back the whole fight? I would like some input from you guys.

**Vaughany** · 06-13-10, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by southmadejd

Hey Ilmatik or anybody for that matter, what do you think the odds will be on varner vs. shalorus??? If that opens up with Shalorus as a dog I think I am going to make a big bet on him. I know Varner has a wrestling background but it seems as though Shalorus toys with even collegiate wrestlers and he seems to have a decent chin on him. Does anybody else think he could keep Varner on his back the whole fight? I would like some input from you guys.

Wrestled for GB and was top 10 in world at one point....wouldnt be surprised if he comes in at +200, might be worth a play

**southmadejd** · 06-13-10, 05:31 PM

Man, if he comes in at +200 that would be amazing. Would everybody put a play on him if he comes in at that number?

**Vaughany** · 06-14-10, 02:05 AM

I probly would but I'm only guessing +200 on the basis that Varner is a much bigger name and former champ!

**illmatick** · 06-15-10, 08:30 AM

Tim Kennedy -130 x1.5

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-15-10, 09:42 AM

Ill, any thoughts on fading Noons? He looked pretty lackluster in his return match against Dida -- Ring rust perhaps, but I've never been that impressed with Noons.

Although, I don't recall being very impressed the few times I've seen Heun either.

**illmatick** · 06-15-10, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Zaramoskis -200 x2

Santos +250 x.5 (sportsbook.com)

I think Heun is a perfect opp for Noons, sloppy standup and he lacks one punch power, best chance I give Heun is to use whatever type of cardio edge he may have and try and force KJ into a fast pace fight like the one he had against Gurgel.. only way I see Noons losing is if he gasses late

**southmadejd** · 06-16-10, 11:00 AM

I think this is one of those fight cards where all of the favorites take it except Lawler. I just think Babalu is way more well rounded, the only thing that scares me is Lawler's power.

Also Zaramoskis could get knocked out by Santos, lets hope that doesn't happen also.

**illmatick** · 06-16-10, 11:34 AM

I actually like Prangley tonight.. just waiting to see how far the line continues to move

all depends on what king of gas tank Prangley brings to the fight, I wish there was some type of prop bet where I could just bet him to win round 1.. if the line closes at +140 or better he will be my official play

**illmatick** · 06-16-10, 11:43 AM

Rich Attonito +105 x1
Josh Bryant +160 x.5
Chris Cammozi -115 x.5